Capital Valor
@CapitalValor
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Institutional investor (single name moves mentioned are in my private book). Value focus.
Joined April 2020
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CEO of Nexans, massive copper consumer, says in French press he is very worried about copper in next few years. Says we will run out and will have to fight for what’s available. 🤯
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Lots of small caps going no bid. Got filled on a number of orders at big discounts.
This is crazy.
Indices don’t tell the story but under the hood there is big pain.
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These Big Tech results aren't about the economy/inflation/Fed/etc.
It's simply mismanagement.
Massive headcounts, people Tiktoking all day, drinking cold brews, eating quinoa crisps, barely doing any work. Not a joke, I've visited the offices. The videos aren't parody.
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In the 2010s I dealt with a lot of guys who lost $$ in offshore svcs. The real winners were those who picked up companies with recap'd BS.
I wonder if today's commercial RE trades aren't like rigs back then. Gotta be patient and pick up clean + cheap structures?
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Lots of opportunities in this market. Many sectors + top compounders at multiyear lows.
Think luxury, alcohol, tobacco, QSR, FMCG (eg NESN), casinos/gambling/leisure (eg CZR MTN), ULTA, iron ore (eg VALE), etc.
Exciting.
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Strong turnout in EU elections today.
Greens and socialists apparently getting destroyed.
Europeans are fed up.
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$EC
Getting a big shipment from Colombia
$2.50 divi on a $11 stock
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Added to $VALE here.
Stock is so cheap. Below metrics from Jan 2023 use an $18 stock price, we're 23% lower today...
And yes I know IO and the stock are volatile, but you gotta embrace volatility to make $.
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Wife losing her job.
Funding conditions way too tight, business has to do cuts.
Thanks central bankers.
Crap day but we’re thankful we have wealth. Feel bad for those who aren’t as fortunate and will lose their jobs.
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$JOE
2021 AR out.
Snowball getting bigger and bigger.
Lovely stories in shareholder letter, people fleeing Blue states to FA.
2021 activity came from just 2% of $JOE's land.
This could get big.
@hkuppy
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China tech 👀
Trading at 16-year lows vs global markets, with large short interest
$BABA $JD $KWEB
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Commodity selloff can only be good for inflation. No supply response means we will have the mother of all squeezes following this downturn. Are leaders going to push the world into a recession every 18 months as commodity prices moon? 🤡We need other solutions, fast.
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When you have 150k followers and you push them all into a small cap name, you get a succesful pump… crazy price action
$AMRK
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Most European assets being sold off indiscriminately. Large cap multinationals like Adidas, BASF or Alstom at COVID/Mar-2020 lows. Mad.
Time to sharpen pencils and find the next gems. Key not to be too early and catch falling knives too quickly.
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How to find inflections in emerging markets - Tomorrow’s Gold, Marc Faber
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Good piece in Le Figaro today.
French hotel bookings 21% above 2019 levels for a new record high. Expecting mid 80s occupancy this summer. US, UK and Arabs taking advantage of low EUR.
EUR tourism and luxury equities are incredible value. Spending time on this space.
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One of my best days in a long time.
The doomers will get you to lose your shirt. You won't lose money if you buy FCF for very cheap and have patience.
Unless you're a pod boi but that's another game.
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Personal finance question - we are in a high inflation environment.
Are you guys stocking up on anything, if so what?
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$BTU getting past its long base.
Ready to explode like $AMR.
Valuation and technical setup 💪🚀
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If you don't find lots of stuff to buy here, then you probably should give up investing. Not a time to be scared.
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Lula got Truss'd
LULA’S TEAM TO MULL MORE CONSERVATIVE SPENDING PLAN FOR BRAZIL
Brazil equities going vertical...
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Oh and Fintwit thought it knew better than Buffett buying $OXY every trading day? Yea right. Sometimes humility helps. Taking advantage of wisdom from the GOATs is free.
While everyone was focused on making memes criticizing
@BillAckman
, nobody wrote about the fact he's long $200m in crude oil call options.
Guess who's gonna get paid by the Saudis and Putin?
I own $PSH and am long a number of cheap oil equities and asymmetric energy derivatives
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Most accounts I follow are now almost exclusively talking about very short term market movements/trying to predict the next macro print
Need to take a big step back and focus on longer term trends/results, and use Mr Market to find undervalued names, inflecting with big tailwinds
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While everyone was focused on making memes criticizing
@BillAckman
, nobody wrote about the fact he's long $200m in crude oil call options.
Guess who's gonna get paid by the Saudis and Putin?
I own $PSH and am long a number of cheap oil equities and asymmetric energy derivatives
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Wife tells me her hairdresser today was daytrading the S&P while cutting her hair.
Was pleased with the PCE print and went long just before the cut.
What a world we're in.
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$NOPE to close and liquidate.
Losing an important contra.
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The Bagholder Thread
$TSLA
Bubble ending, we’re at the bargaining stage.
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Buying more 🇺🇸 land here.
Inflation a little high so housing going to zero? Total joke but best opportunities are when you want to puke and hide under your desk.
$JOE $HHH
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Crazy how many people made so much money in coal and will lose it all on the way down
#bagholder
There was a lot of luck with the Russia situation.
I had colleagues lose fortunes setting up big coal longs in the last decade, so supply/demand thesis isn't new
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$PSH
Bill says $GOOG position 20% higher than in 13F. Average price $95, so nice win so far.
PSH NAV strongly performing and GBP going down, so discount widened to 38.3%. Incredible dislocation.
$PSH my largest holding, put mid teen % of my wealth into the stock.
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Everyone on my feed talking about macro, SVB, etc.
Who cares.
This isn't the time to grab the knives, buying shitco regional banks, etc.
Other stuff is getting liquidated, and this is where you gotta focus your time.
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$HHH announces $250m of sales at Ritz Carlton Woodlands... in just 1 week...
Wealthy Americans have $$$ and want high quality housing in red states.
Stock getting killed on move in yields. I'm adding here.
Deep value for patient capital.
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$PBR
I like this statement from Prates: "without neglecting the big attractiveness of having big dividends"
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Played the $NVDA bubble and exiting here at +50%. Thanks for playing.
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Old article on Buffett and royalty companies.
You’ll understand my obsession for finding such companies, it’s just incredibly tough to buy them at fair prices these days.
$PSH owns a great collection of “royalty” cos at deep discount to NAV.
@InvestmentTalkk
great find
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Perplexed by $PBR price action.
Even analysts are impressed.
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Is the China narrative different from the facts?
I see reopening moves right here...
China Southern Airlines: Will resume international, Hong Kong/ Macau/ Taiwan routes in an orderly manner. Will resume Guangzhou-New York passenger route from December 1.
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Some retail stuff is trading at COVID lows, when the world was in full panic and locked down. Some painful quarters coming up but the American consumer story is secular and strong.
I am again accumulating positions.
$LEVI $GPS $FL
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Gold physical going vertical past its all time highs… and market still not chasing miners… clear opportunity
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Nobody tweeting about investment ideas.
Timing a bottom is a waste of time. Market is smart, it will recover before news give the all clear.
Who’s trading at v high FCF yields, solid balance sheets, with businesses models that work with inflation.
This is key.
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New designs at $BRBY are cute and they’re pushing to refresh brand + stores.
I like it at current valuation as part of luxury basket.
Buy solid brands when they’re down and be patient.
Consumer taste is cyclical.
My $ANF and $LEVI were same play.
#Turnaroundinprogress
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Had dinner with someone whose wealth comes from owning $MCD and $CP for the last 20 years. 20-baggers excluding dividends.
Owning quality
#neversell
compounders for the long-term is a fantastic wealth builder.
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This tin move is mad.
11% yesterday and 10% this morning.
🤯
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@ArchiteuthisDx
Let debt structures be restructured and cleaned up. Remove a lot of leverage. And pick up equity for cheap once everyone's forgotten about the sector.
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Guys you are smart people, stop celebrating unrest. Macedonia protests are about an ethnic issue in relation to EU accession talks. Nothing to do with oil.
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$PANR
Uncommercial well. Stock destroyed. Yep… we were right.
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Entire market collapsing while commodities puke doesn’t make sense.
One of the 2 should see strength.
Either commodities are down for good and inflation comes down, with consumer cashed up... Or commodities are just dipping and relevant equities should not be down for long.
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Meeting some working people in Africa.
Angry with Americans and Europeans for making them abandon coal and pushing their green/solar unaffordable crap.
Even the main guy on the street gets it…
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Shocking inflation figures out of Europe.
Belgian CPI at 0.36% YoY from 4%. German CPI at 0.0% MoM.
Rate levels are silly. We're about to enter deflation territory.
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Zerohedge: France cannot feed its own people.
Real stats: France is one of the world’s agri powers.
Narratives are going all crazy these days. Let’s stick to facts.
Hedge Fund CIO: "An Utterly Extraordinary Period Is Ending: Macron Knows This, So Does Xi"
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Crazy how the bears got it wrong.
Don’t time macro, just buy cheap assets.
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George Noble $NOPE trying to be better than Jim Cramer.
Had just gone short $META $AAPL and $AMZN.
Dude is an incredible contra.
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Noble just went long $QQQ. Took losses on his tech shorts yesterday and now 20% long QQQ.
I'd have trouble losing money faster. 🤯🧨
George Noble $NOPE trying to be better than Jim Cramer.
Had just gone short $META $AAPL and $AMZN.
Dude is an incredible contra.
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What do we think Dr Copper is telling us? Stocks have been rising almost everyday for 2 months now. It's clear there's no new copper supply and it takes many years to build a new mine. But it hasn't stopped the price from falling... as demand is getting hit hard.
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Monday will be wild for $PBR $VALE...
Bolsonaro Seen at 50.3% Valid Votes, Lula at 49.7%: Futura Poll
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Investors I respect like Ackman or Kuppy really have bad takes on geopolitics. One trying to trigger WW3, the other one praying for a Le Pen win. What the f is wrong with people. I don’t care about money if our world is a mess.
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Shorting some $BUD here.
Funny how one marketing employee can destroy a brand.
Low downside / high reward as sales continue to collapse.
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Thermal coal will print massive cash in coming years and valuations remain very reasonable.
The flush is coming though. Unless you have big gains you want to shelter from tax, will prob get the chance to buy 30-40% lower very soon.
Hmmm, me thinks the coal trade is about to get much harder. Front month
#NEWC
is -$100/t since sep and now under $300.
I understand the FCF firehose, but fear equity prices are going to respond to NEWC with a 2 handle. Gird your loins if you're a HODLer. $NHC $WHC $YAL
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Best way to trade this China/HKG selloff is to buy HKG-listed American/European assets.
Samsonite (US) looks better and better, I recently bought a starter and may add.
L'Occitane (France) / Prada (Italy) still way too expensive.
Any other names?
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Lol $SBSW
🩸
Newbie cyclical investors who got lucky playing the commodity boom in past few years are gonna get hurt.
I see some catching the falling knife on the piece of junk $SBSW is. Lol only luck will save you.
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The coal brigade gets really annoyed when you leave the trade. Guys this isn’t a religion.
I’m making more money elsewhere and will come back when valuations have cooled down.
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Amazed how $PBR keeps delivering the goods.
Massive dividends, buybacks, and now exploring in the Amazon, giving the finger to ESG fanatics.
Risk premium keeps reducing and we’ll end up at $30 soon.
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China getting into panic stage.
Western names listed in HK getting unfairly killed.
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French panic selloff is 🤡
Sure..LVMH or Hermes won’t sell any handbags to Chinese tourists.
French far right today isn’t the old Jean Marie Le Pen. In any case, constitutional arrangements prevent anything too extreme policy wise
Will be buy the dip opportunities out there
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Shocking act of terrorism damaging industrial infrastructure, here at Lafarge.
ESG terrorists are ramping up and must be stopped asap.
UNE USINE DU CIMENTIER
#LAFARGE
SABOTÉE DANS LES BOUCHES-DU-RHÔNE
Hier, à une vingtaine de kilomètres au nord de Marseille, 200 militant.e.s ont ciblé les infrastructures du géant du ciment.
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$JMS
One of the world's best manganese mines
$338m EV for LTM EBITDA of $133m, so 2.5x EBITDA
And this with manganese price at trough levels...
Hard to find cheaper - picking up big dividends and staying patient ahead of market recovery
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If you want to know about copper sentiment, my copper tweet is now running at 1K views every few minutes 🤷♂️
Not usual for contrarian ideas so copper may not be so contrarian after all…
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LK99 - some more positive news coming in.
Best picks and shovels play in the space I could identify is $BRKR.
Name has not run yet and trades at decent valuation.
Bought a small long.
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So interesting we're likely to see Noble close down his shop before crazy Cathy...
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Monopoly assets at 2-5x FCF and 30% ROIC? Where?!
8) It is amazing just how many dominant, near monopoly assets are 2-5x run-rate FCF. These are companies with 30%+ ROIC. Good Businesses haven’t been this cheap except Feb 2009 and March 2020. Difference is that those times were scary. Now isn’t scary. We may have a recession🤷♂️🤷♂️
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Took chips off the table on Uranium.
Limited asymmetry from here.
Big gains in the bag.
Well done all.
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#Coal
This was the exact top. Prophetic.
Should have gone short.🙈 At least kept my gains.
Exited all Aussie / US / UK coal exposure.
Good luck to holders.
But but but FCF gEnERatiONNNN... Yea sure.
Next --->
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George Noble
When you are a bear in a bear market, and STILL manage to destroy your fund a few days post launch.
He has a large levered short on TSLA, ARKK + long DXY. Weirdly bought $20k (yes 20 thousand $) in a few energy stocks.
What is driving this...? One-day action, is it levered?
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Rumours that Niger is suspending uranium exports. This is big and may see strong response from France.
Let’s see official confirmation.
$U.UN
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What’s going on with US luxury demand?
Burberry numbers indicate sales fell off a cliff in recent months.
Why is the shopper buying Abercrombie like crazy but rich Americans can’t afford a fancy trenchcoat?
Markets at all time highs, real estate doing well, wages good, etc
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Accumulated packaging names at multi year lows ahead of macro recovery.
Slam dunk if patient.
$SKG $IP
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French CPI well below forecasts.
French model of subsidising key expenses works as it stops the wage/price spiral.
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Authorities finally stopping the morons.
5 years in jail for blocking traffic 🔥
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Flight data on fire. Hotel data too…
Many tourism names breaking out.
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I see many tweets and journalists panicking at European headlines showing certain heavy industry factories shutting down due to high energy costs.
Thing is this is not new at all.
The below is industry as of % of French GDP...
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$BRBY global store tour continues. Milano 🇮🇹 and London 🇬🇧
Stores busy. Almost 100% Asian. Store assistant tells me they’re picking up and “definitely seeing a recovery”.
New designs at $BRBY are cute and they’re pushing to refresh brand + stores.
I like it at current valuation as part of luxury basket.
Buy solid brands when they’re down and be patient.
Consumer taste is cyclical.
My $ANF and $LEVI were same play.
#Turnaroundinprogress
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Luxury selloff getting silly.
Opportunities for the patient here.
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$JMS $S32
#Manganese
Gabon railway destroyed over 900m plus a bridge due to massive landslide. Eramet train derailed. Very difficult repairs it appears.
One of world's largest manganese producers going to be stuck using road for foreseeable future. Bullish just as China reopens.
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And done.
Lilly confirms deal closing on 1st December. Got a bunch of cheap CVRs in the bag.
Got no likes on my posts.
Share alpha and nobody cares 🤷♂️
Added to this.
Will hold the $AKUS CVRs at average price <$0.70, including put protection through deal closing.
First $1 payment to CVR holders relatively straightforward, with potential for another $4 on top.
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Good piece on
@BillAckman
and $PSH in
@thetimes
Thoughts on move to the US.
"My ambition is to have a long-term track record that’s competitive with what [Warren Buffett] has achieved.”
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A reminder to all bears or permabears. You don’t get rich shorting the last 10-20pc of a downturn, you instead want to pick up asymmetric securities in high quality companies, for multi baggers as the economy recovers.
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2 weeks later, France reopens the St Avold coal plant (literally back from the dead).
Finland reopens the Meri Pori coal plant.
Once again, ESG narrative is just a narrative. Smart stuff is happening in reality.
Twitter all commenting on Macron’s comments re rationing and ESG.
PR is different from reality.
Reality: Cordemais coal plant announced to come online. Total also building France’s first LNG terminal in Le Havre.
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People are questioning Musk or Ackman's sanity based on recent tweets.
I own private co's internationally and there's a clear trend of increased governmental oppression.
Simply becoming difficult to run a business.
Atlas Shrugged coming to life.
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$ARCO Incredible stuff
Growth accelerating. 38% LfL sales growth, 28% EBITDA growth.
Cheap multiple, amazing brand, unstoppable growth.
Winners keep winning and I make money 🍾🥳
$ARCO 🍔
Earnings a solid beat.
36% LfL sales growth, 21% EBITDA growth.
Highest margins in company's history.
All of this operating the best brand in the world $MCD, and available for mid SD EBITDA multiple. Mad stuff.
@matthewhcullen
@Billypasdemates
@taobanker
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