Jessica Menton
@JessicaMenton
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Deputy team leader & senior equities reporter for US stocks @business . Formerly @USATODAY @WSJ . Proud Texan living the dream in NYC. @TAMU alumna. Views mine.
New York, NY
Joined June 2012
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Oppenheimer: $SPX selloff since Jan. 4th intra-day peak is the “start of a three-wave correction,” via
@AriWald
. First leg (A wave) hit its low Jan. 24th “and should soon be followed by a narrowly-led rally (B wave)…a final washout (C wave) likely lurks over the coming months…”
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Some career news: Happy to share I’m deputy team leader for the US equities team at Bloomberg News
@business
, with a focus on macro stock market coverage. Very exciting!
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Some professional news! I’m now senior reporter for the US equities team at Bloomberg News
@business
and will continue my role as deputy team leader for our all star group 🚀🚀🚀
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BTIG: “With the exception of 2010, every notable drawdown in the last two decades hasn’t concluded until less than 20% of the R3K has been below its 200 DMA (currently 33%). We are also still lacking a 90% downside volume day. Getting closer but not quite there yet.”
@jkrinskypga
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BofA global fund manager survey: Investor allocation to equities relative to bonds drops to its lowest level since the global financial crisis, via Michael Hartnett
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Some professional news: I’m joining
@USATODAY
this week to cover personal finance 💸 and the financial markets 📈. Very excited and grateful for this opportunity!
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$SPX at risk for head and shoulders top while below 4546-4600, via BofA. “…a bearish weekly reversal on a failed attempt to clear resistance at 4495-4546…increases the risk for a 6-month head & shoulders top,” and a break below 4200s would confirm pattern, according to BofA.
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✨Some professional news✨I’m joining Bloomberg
@business
as an equities reporter in December! Still based in NYC. Very exciting 😁
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BofA Fund Manager Survey: “FMS cash up to 5.9% (from 5.3%) as investors got more cautious/bearish…highest level since Mar’20. This triggers…tactical “Buy” signal...BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is down slightly to 2.8 from 2.9; sentiment is bearish but not yet extreme bearish.”
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BofA’s latest Fund Manager Survey: Investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005
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Since 1950, $SPX averages an intra-year pullback of 17.1% in midterm years (via
@RyanDetrick
). But final 3 months of a midterm year and first 2 quarters of the following year (pre-election year) have been some of the strongest for stocks in the 4 year U.S. presidential cycle.
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In the past three weeks, BofA’s client inflows into single stocks as a percentage of $SPX market capitalization were in the 99th percentile of history since 2008
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Switzerland is granting UBS a 9 billion franc ($9.7 billion) guarantee to cover potential losses related to its takeover of Credit Suisse via
@TheTerminal
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The CPI-PPI spread in December was 0.3% — the first positive reading in two years. Negative spreads historically point to weaker operating margin growth & lower equity returns, while positive spreads typically result in stronger gains for stocks, via
@BBGIntelligence
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$SPX has gone 350 sessions through Monday without a drop of at least 2% — on pace for its best streak since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007 if the index reaches 352 sessions by Wednesday’s close, via
@TheTerminal
in my Taking Stock column today
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Bloomberg Intelligence’s Economic Regime Index indicates a US recession may have started in mid-2022 and already passed its worst point. While the model still signals weakness in the economy, as long as it stays above late-2022 lows the outlook is favorable for $SPX, BI says
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“Technically it appears right to position for a bounce, though still can’t rule out Monday’s lows being tested or even breached by a small amount…to expect markets have a chance at moving back to new highs, prices need to recoup 4582, the 1/10/22 low…” —
@MarkNewtonCMT
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In the past three decades, there have been four distinct periods of rate-hike cycles by the Fed, which historically haven’t been detrimental to U.S. equity markets or $SPX tech sector, via
@StrategasRP
. Cyclical bias helped heading into the first rate hike but was mixed later.
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Since 1990, four prior bull runs saw the equal-weight S&P 500 index outpace the main benchmark by 15 percentage points, on average, by the 20th month, according to
@jimwpaulsen
. Currently, the equal-weight gauge has underperformed the S&P by 16 percentage points in that span.
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Ned Davis Research’s gauge of gloom is in the midst of its third-longest streak of extreme pessimism since the data began in 1995, via
@edclissold
. The two longer stretches were in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble bursting in 2002 and the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.
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$SPX has now gone five consecutive sessions without closing either 1% higher or lower for the first time since January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg W/
@Matt_Turnerr
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More than 36% of the stocks in the Nasdaq are down at least 50% from their 52-week highs, an extraordinarily large number given the scale of the overall index’s drop, according to
@NDR_Research
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BofA’s FMS sentiment turned more bearish in April to the most pessimistic so far in 2023, which is “contrarian supportive for risk assets,” according to Michael Hartnett
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BofA: April fund manager survey sentiment is at the most bullish level since January 2022
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Pain for debt investors: About 16 billion Swiss francs ($17.3 billion) of Credit Suisse bonds have become worthless after UBS takeover via
@TheTerminal
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“The Value Line Geometric Average, the 1700 equal-weighted stock gauge, has now gotten down to serious ‘make-or-break’ levels near lows that have held since last spring,” via
@MarkNewtonCMT
of Fundstrat
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BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: “least bearish FMS since Feb'22…3 out of 4 expect soft/no landing, smallest equity UW since Apr'22, largest tech OW since Dec'21,” per Michael Hartnett
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In the past 50 years, every time Brent prices, adjusted for inflation, rose 50% above trend, a recession followed, according to
@luca_paolini
via
@markets
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BofA global fund manager survey: Credit crunch fear drives up bond allocation to a net 10% overweight in April — the highest since March 2009
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While $SPX is historically weaker in the first half of US presidential election years, this is the second-best January to June run since 1928, per
@edclissold
. With $SPX bucking seasonal patterns, there’s room for a 5% to 8% pull back in the short-run, via
@AlmanacTrader
.
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$SPX slid 2.3% on Wednesday, snapping its longest streak without a drop of at least 2% since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007 at 356 sessions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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Killer shirt
@DivesTech
!
Great to be on Bloomberg Radio with
@ptsweeney
and
@JessicaMenton
discussing tech stocks and our view a new tech bull market has begun with this AI Revolution ahead
@BloombergRadio
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“Too much negativity priced in – add risk to equities,” according to JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic:
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“Once the Nasdaq initially falls 20%+ from a 52-week high, short-term performance has been relatively muted, but three, six, and twelve months later, median returns were better than average,” via
@bespokeinvest
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BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: “Cash drops from 5.3% to 4.8% (21 -month low)…FMS cash <5% means end of BofA Global FMS Cash Rule contrarian ‘buy signal’”
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BofA FMS: Cash levels remained at 5.5% in April and have remained above 5.0% for 17 consecutive months, eclipsed only by the 32-month dot-com bear market
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As a dizzying first half for US stocks draws to a close, the Nasdaq 100 is poised for its best opening six months to a year ever via
@markets
with
@lena_popina
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The Nasdaq Composite $CCMP is approaching a “death cross” — a technical pattern where its 50-day moving average crosses below its longer term 200-day moving average. If it happens, it would mark the first time since April 2020.
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$SPX has gone 265 sessions — through Tuesday — without a drop of at least 2%, its longest stretch since 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Via
@markets
from me &
@Matt_Turnerr
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Thread: $SPX historically performs well in periods of Fed tightening cycles. In fact, stocks have risen at an average annualized rate of 9% during the 12 Fed rate hike cycles since the 1950s and delivered positive returns in 11 of those instances, via Keith Lerner of
@TruistNews
As the Nasdaq 100 comes off its worst week since the pandemic selloff in March 2020, investors now have to contend with Wednesday’s important Fed meeting
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Fund managers most overweight bonds vs stocks since April 2009, via BofA
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“Our Vix signal has entered buy territory. 100% of the time equities were up over the next 1 and 6 months given the signal, outside recessions,” per JPMorgan Equity Strategy
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BTIG’s
@jkrinskypga
: “…our conviction that the SPX tests 3,400-3,500 before this is over is now higher than our conviction for a rally to 4,200. While it won't be a straight line, today is confirmation that selling rallies in bear markets is much easier than buying dips.”
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Guess this means I'm now a
#Browns
fan...
#Browns2014Draft
#JohnnyFootball
#NFLDraft
#ClevelandBrowns
#JonnyManziel
http://t.co/ye94p9ycMK
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But there are plenty of bears running around. Investors have pulled cash from US equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in 11 of the year’s first 15 weeks, data compiled by EPFR Global show, defying the strongest first quarter for the S&P 500 in four years via
@lena_popina
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BofA Fund Manager Survey: “Record net 90% think that global inflation will be lower within the next 12 months... FMS investors expect US CPI inflation to be 4.2% in the next 12 months.”
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Be sure to tune in at 7pm ET tonight!
@dougboneparth
and
@Bonaparte20
will be joining us
@USATODAY
@USATODAYmoney
@Josh1Rivera
Join
@USATODAYmoney
and finance experts today at 7 p.m. ET in a discussion about cryptocurrency and the risks young investors face if they're not financially prepared to invest in speculative assets.
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$SPX is on track to notch five straight months of gains from November through March — a feat that’s only been accomplished one other time this century in 2013, from my Taking Stock column today via
@TheTerminal
.
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Today was the fourth-worst reaction to Fed minutes by the S&P 500 since at least 2007, via
@bespokeinvest
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Looking at the past eight recessions since 1970, $SPX returns 8.9% on average over the three months after BIoomberg Intelligence’s model hits its low — and 20% over the 12 months after that nadir. The broad equities benchmark is up 7.8% this year.
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Check out my
#buybacks
story in today's paper. Extra special since
@katiebindley
is on Page One, too!
#WhatsNews
Take an early look at the front page of The Wall Street Journal
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Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett: Cash inflows of $925 billion YTD already surpasses record inflows in 2020
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Loved working at
@USATODAY
@USATODAYmoney
with all my amazing colleagues these past few years! Thank you
@dgBrinkerhoff
@philanap
@mmaltaisLA
@nicole_carroll
@jefftayloredits
@kristenrgo
@JuliaThompson
@Josh1Rivera
It was a privilege to work under your leadership!
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Fundstrat: “…despite $QQQ lagging Thursday, trends are further along in testing key resistance from January. Above 350 argues for a rally up to 369-371 in $QQQ which should be the first important resistance, for those short-term oriented.” —
@MarkNewtonCMT
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Will be on Bloomberg TV at 1:40pm ET to recap earnings season so far with
@sonalibasak
&
@KritiGuptaNews
. Tune in!
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The worst of America’s economic pain appears to have happened months ago — historically a boon for $SPX, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence model known as the Economic Regime Index…via
@markets
from me &
@lena_popina
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$SPX death cross: “The key takeaway here isn't that a downside break of the 50-DMA through the 200-DMA is bullish or bearish for future returns, but instead, that as an investor, you should probably pay very little attention to it,” via
@bespokeinvest
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Oppenheimer: “…significantly lower interest rates are a key difference vs. the warning that commodities presented in the 1970s…it leads us to think of the threat of recession in the context of an ongoing secular advance—1953, 1957, 1960, and 1990, rather than 1973.” —
@AriWald
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$SPX closed for the 100th straight session without a drop of at least 1.5%. It’s had four losses of more than 1% in the two months since it peaked for the year, but otherwise daily swings have been muted to an extent not matched since 2018.
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$SPX is up nearly 14% in 4Q — on pace for its best fourth quarter since 1999
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The continuing broadening of this year’s powerful stock market rally hangs on what the Federal Reserve does and says about interest rates after its two-day meeting wraps up on Wednesday
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The stampede out of energy stocks this year is showing signs of turning as Wall Street urges investors to take a closer look at the beaten-down shares amid a robust US economy via
@markets
from
@geoffreymorgan
& me
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Buy signals flashed across Wall Street as traders grew optimistic about rate cuts coming soon after Fed Chair Powell left the door open to lowering borrowing costs in September. $SPX jumped 1.6% — its best Fed Day session since July 2022
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Dream Team!! Had a great time co-hosting Bloomberg Businessweek with
@MadisonMills22
!! Tho producers prohibited us from having the Friday🍷 segment while y’all were gone
@carolmassar
@timsteno
😂
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$SPX sheds 8% peak-to-trough over 12-day period. “The put/call ratio has moved to its most pessimistic condition since November 2020 through this setback. Although price still needs to stabilize, we see this as contrarian firepower for a rally.” —
@AriWald
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Strongest start to any year since 1915 for commodity prices, via BofA
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“US IG credit spreads are approaching 150bp, a level that led to a Fed pivot in the previous decade,” per Deutsche Bank. “…credit spread widening could be an early warning sign that the repricing of Fed expectations may need to take a pause soon.”
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Wall Street strategists are increasingly voicing concerns about the concentration of Big Tech stocks in this year’s stock-market rally. But if history is any guide, there’s little reason to fear via
@markets
from me &
@lena_popina
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That said, $SPX has eked out positive returns in August in five of the past 10 years. And since the 1970s in US election years, August has been the best month for the Nasdaq Composite $CCMP, with an average gain of 3.2%, per The Stock Trader’s Almanac
@AlmanacTrader
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$SPX just exited what’s historically been its best two-week stretch of the year in the first half of July, and is approaching its most challenging stretch in August and September via
@AlmanacTrader
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For all the bank collapses, plunging bond yields, hammering in oil and mining stocks and day-in, day-out volatility,
@adamsarhan
puts this week in the win column. Why? “The stock market had every chance to crater, but didn’t,” he said. “That’s bullish.”
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BofA: long-term return from US government bonds crashes to 50-year low of 0.7%
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Investors are loading up on call options as a way to capture the upside if the bull market in stocks proves resilient, while still remaining defensive because they’re wary of what the Fed may signal this week about its policy path. With
@lena_popina
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Thanks so much
@Downtown
&
@michaelbatnick
for discussing my story on the five big themes to watch this earnings season on
@TheCompoundNews
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BofA: FMS investor allocation to equities least underweight since April 2022
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What’s next? A line of defense for $spx may sit at 4,909, its 20-DMA. Its 50-DMA will be another key milestone at 4,787. After that, traders will watch this year’s intraday low of 4,682 on Jan. 5. Then it’s 4,600 — the July highs...from me &
@lena_popina
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Roughly 57% of $SPX stocks hit one-month lows Tuesday — the most since the regional-bank crisis in March 2023 — while nearly 50% hit four-week lows in $NDX, the highest since an August selloff. In late March, that measure was virtually zero for both benchmarks, via
@TheTerminal
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As a wild 2023 for the US stock market is drawing to a close, investors are optimistic for 2024 as the S&P 500 sits within striking distance of its first all-time high in nearly two years via
@markets
with
@lena_popina
&
@IshikaMookerjee
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94 trading sessions have come and gone since late April without a single loss of at least 1.5% in the S&P 500 — the longest steak since 2018, per
@TheTerminal
via
@markets
from me &
@carlydwanna
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7
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Confidence in this year’s US stock-market rebound continues to build, with money-market funds notching their first outflows in almost two months, while cash kept on the sidelines by fund managers has dropped to the lowest point in over a year via
@markets
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3
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Despite $SPX posting its worst day since April 30, the benchmark equities gauge has gone 352 sessions through Wednesday without a drop of at least 2% — its longest streak since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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@PantheonMacro
: “Upcoming changes to the CPI methodology by the BLS look set to result in an even steeper downward trend in reported inflation over the coming year…core goods—notably autos—will have larger weights, while the weighting of core services—notably rents—will fall.”
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$SPX has climbed 14% since the beginning of January, notching its second-best stretch of records to start a year this century via
@markets
with
@lena_popina
@Matt_Turnerr
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BTIG: “While our primary bias is still lower, there is some room for $SPX to rally and still be within its recent downtrend channel. ~4450-4465 would be important on any further strength…a sub-4,000 print is possible before this correction has run its course.” —
@jkrinskypga
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4
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Oppenheimer: “We expect a small-cap washout to create the secular bull market’s next big opportunity.” —
@AriWald
So how bad does $RUT drop have to get? “Currently 11% below its 200-day average, deviation readings around -20% have marked such opportunities over the last decade…”
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Stock-market strategists who were largely wrong about this year’s rally are finally starting to come to face their mistake, raising year-end targets for the S&P 500 via
@markets
from me &
@alexandraandnyc
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Goldman Sachs: “We continue to expect seven 25bp hikes this year, followed by four quarterly hikes in 2023…We expect the FOMC will finalize and publish its plan at the May meeting and then announce the start of balance sheet reduction at the June meeting.”
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Have the pleasure of co-hosting Bloomberg Businessweek with the great
@carolmassar
from 3-6pm ET on
@BloombergRadio
today. Tune in!
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$SPX traded as much as 15% above its 200-DMA last week, via my Taking Stock column in
@TheTerminal
— a larger spread than what preceded the early 2018 selloff and only been wider in recent memory after March 2009 low, Feb. 2011 peak and 2021 post Covid nadir, per
@AndrewThrasher
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👀👀👀
A look at Friday's paper:
--Jobless record spirals to 22 million: Ten years of job gains have been
wiped out in a matter of weeks.
--A New Jersey nursing home faces an inquiry after 18 bodies of residents who died of COVID-19 were found at its facility this week.
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BofA: 9th straight week of big outflows from IG + HY bonds ($15.7bn)
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