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Bespoke Investment Group - Financial Markets Research. Learn more here:
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Here’s a table of Nasdaq bear markets (20%+ declines with no 20%+ rallies in between). This bear is at -24% and 168 days long. Notice anything?
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The S&P 500 has never declined on a day when jobless claims were a million or more.
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Nordstrom had its best day of the year today (+4.09%). $JWN
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$7.29 for one McDonald’s Egg McMuffin. What has the world come to??
These were 2 for $2 pretty recently.
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S&P 500 close on 11/30/23: 4,567.80
S&P 500 close on 11/30/21: 4,567.00
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Here's a great stat for you:
The small-cap Russell 2,000 made a new 52-week high today after hitting a 52-week low just 48 days ago. That's the shortest turnaround time in the index's history to go from 52-week low to 52-week high dating back to the 1970s! $IWM
#markets
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Would you call the largest destruction of wealth in modern market history a "soft landing"?
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History was made today.
The Russell 2000 closed 4.4 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average.
No other major US index (Dow since 1900, S&P 500 since 1928, and Nasdaq since 1971) has ever closed at that much of an extreme.
"Where were you when..."
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Crude oil is up 20% in the last week but the national average price of gas at the pump is down 1%. This calls for an investigation.
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You don't even want to know the two other times $QQQ gapped down 3% and finished the day up over 3%.
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It's official. A new bull market is confirmed.
The S&P 500 is now up 20% from its 10/12/22 closing low. The prior bear market saw the index fall 25.4% over 282 days.
Read more at .
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Good explanation on today's trading halts by Robinhood and others in tonight's Closer.
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First time in over 20 years that the Nasdaq was up 1%+ intraday and finished down more than 1% on back to back days.
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Crazy stat -- all of this year's decline for $SPY has come after hours (buy the close, sell the next open). If you only owned intraday (buy the open, sell the close), you'd be up 9.3% YTD.
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First time the Dow has reversed a 1,000+ point drop to close higher on the day.
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The number of users on Coinbase now exceeds the number of brokerage accounts at Charles Schwab. $SCHW
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Salesforce notifying staff of job cuts on the same day its stock is having the best day since its IPO is 2020 in a nutshell.
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The S&P closed 2+ standard deviations above its 50-DMA for 5 straight days recently. Prior times it reached these levels since 2022 ended up being short-term peaks.
Read more:
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In the span of three hours today, S&P 500 futures have had a 3.9% decline and a 3.9% rally.
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At 115 days, the Nasdaq is 3 days away from being in its longest correction since the Financial Crisis. We bottomed right around this point during the 23.6% drop in Q4 2018.
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2022 - the worst start to a year on record for the Nasdaq.
YTD thru April:
2022: -19.8%
1973: -19.4%
2001: -14.3%
2002: -13.4%
2005: -11.7%
1984: -11.2%
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Apple's new $90 billion buyback authorization is larger than 400 of the S&P 500's components.
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META was an $88 stock at its low in November 2022.
It's up $85 today.
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The S&P 500 has not been this overbought since early 2017.
Read more in tonight's Closer:
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The S&P 500 fell 12% over 10 days from June 7th through June 17th.
These type of declines over such a short period of time are of course rare, and it did a number on market internals. Here's a closer look...
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The last time the Nasdaq 100 made a new all-time high on a day it gained 3%+?
3/22/2000
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Last four Septembers for the S&P:
2020: -3.92%
2021: -4.76%
2022: -9.34%
2023: -5.19% (thru 9/26)
Last three Q4s:
2020: +11.69%
2021: +10.65%
2022: +7.08%
2023: ?
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As of January 19th, NVIDIA $NVDA and Microsoft $MSFT had accounted for about 75% of the S&P 500's gain this year, while the 20 largest stocks in the index accounted for 110% of the index's upside move. The remaining ~480 stocks were acting as a drag.
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The last time the Nasdaq was down 1%+ intraday but finished the day up over 1% was on 10/13/22.
That was the day after the S&P 500's bear market low.
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Costco is selling 1-ounce gold bars today for $2,359.99. Gold is currently trading at $2,342.70.
If you have a Costco Visa and an Executive membership, you get a total of 4% cash back for all Costco purchases.
On a net basis, that's a 3% discount to the spot price.
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A true legend.
“Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day.” - Charlie Munger
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How many times does a report have to come in better than expected before you adjust your models?
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NVIDIA’s $NVDA price to sales ratio recently eclipsed 40. Is that sustainable? Here’s a look at mega-cap P/S ratios.
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In case you were wondering, since at least 1984, the S&P 500 has never erased 2%+ declines and finished higher two days in a row.
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Berkshire's stake in Apple now represents 21% of its entire market cap.
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It took Tesla $TSLA 2,407 trading days to reach a $100 billion market cap versus just 3 trading days for Rivian $RIVN.
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At -23.7%, this is the 3rd worst two-week (10 trading day) drop for the S&P 500 Energy sector over the last 40+ years.
The only two-week stretches that saw bigger drops for the Energy sector came in October 2008 and March 2020...
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Ten years ago, someone paid 10,000 bitcoin for two Papa John's pizzas. Today, those same bitcoins would be enough to buy 10% of the entire company. $PZZA
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Roughly half of Nasdaq stocks have been cut in half and the average stock is down 46.5% from its 52-wk high.
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S&P 500 has only been down 10% in a week four other times since WWII; October 1987, April 2000, September 2001, and October 2008.
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Today's was just the 5th time in $SPY's history (since '93) that it closed higher by at least 2% after opening down at least 2%.
SPY fell the next day 3 of 4 times, but it was up over the next week and month all 4 times.
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Here's a stat for you...
It's been 309 trading days since ChatGPT was released on 11/30/22 and the Nasdaq is up 46.07%.
In the 309 trading days after Netscape (the first web browser) was released in December 1994, the Nasdaq was up 45.9%.
It doesn't get much closer than that.
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Yesterday Amazon $AMZN closed at $83.04, which means it's now 79 cents BELOW its COVID Crash low of $83.83 made on 3/12/20. Not only have all of AMZN's post-pandemic gains been erased, but it's now trading below its lowest close made during the COVID Crash.
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The combined market cap of Apple and Microsoft is now 54% greater than the ENTIRE Russell 2000.
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A little history lesson in a chart.
Green=Bull Markets 🐂
Red=Bear Markets 🐻
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Tesla $TSLA gains look insane. Until you compare them to Dell $DELL.
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The Tech sector heads into the weekend trading 3.23 standard deviations above its 50-DMA, its most overbought reading since January 2004!
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Apple and Microsoft account for 39% of the S&P’s gain so far in 2023. Add in NVIDIA and Meta and it’s 60%! $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA $META
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The S&P has now gone more than 70 trading days without a 2% pullback.
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A 1%+ drop for the Nasdaq today would make it four 1%+ drops in a row. Last time this happened was late December 2018, and before that, October 2008.
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S&P 500 close on 8/14/19: 2,840.60
S&P 500 close on 8/14/18: 2,839.96
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This 25.4% YTD drop is easily the worst start to a year on record for the Nasdaq.
Worst Nasdaq Composite YTD moves through 88 trading days:
2022: -25.4%
1973: -17.2%
2002: -13.0%
2001: -11.0%
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If the 100 smallest stocks in the S&P 500 doubled from here, the impact on the index would be a gain of just under 2.5%.
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Trends happen fast.
Energy now down more from its 52-week high than Technology. Unbelievable.
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The S&P 500 has gone 467 trading days without making a new all-time high.
After the Great Depression it went more than 6,000…
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The S&P is down 17% YTD, but if you only owned the market on days when the FOMC hiked rates, you'd be looking at a YTD gain of 6.8%. If you avoided the market on those 3 days and were long the rest of the year, you’d be down 23%.
Nobody ever said the market had to make sense!
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This is an amazing snapshot showing how different today’s market is from ten years ago. Back then, no stock’s market cap had a weight of more than 2.81% in the S&P 500. Take a look and let us know what else you see.
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The S&P 500 fell 19.4% in 2022, coming just shy of the -20% mark that only six other years since 1928 have seen. Here's a look at every annual price change for the S&P since 1928 grouped into 10 percentage point intervals. Read more in this week's BR:
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Massive declines across the most highly valued stocks has left the Nasdaq Composite's price to sales ratio well below its pre-COVID high and back to the range it was in for much of 2018 and 2019. Pretty noteworthy.
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We’ve now gone 86 trading days without even a 2% pullback for the S&P.
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There's been just one other trading day since 1979 when the small-cap Russell 2,000 rose 3%+ while the S&P 500 was down on the day.
10/10/08: R2K was up 4.6%, S&P was down 1.2%
Today: R2K up 3.35%, S&P down 0.75%
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Super Micro $SMCI had $7.1 billion in sales in 2023. Current estimates are for $19.5 billion in 2025, which gives it a price to sales ratio of roughly 2.25x.
NVIDIA's $NVDA 2025 price to sales estimate is 19.2x.
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The average Nasdaq Composite stock is 39% below its 52-week high even though the index is just 3.6% below its 52-week high.
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In $SPY's history, it has only opened down 2%+ and closed up 2%+ four times. Today would make it 5, but a lot of day left. Prior days on the chart below:
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This chart is bonkers.
Non Farm Payrolls has now exceeded expectations for a record 13 straight months.
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$188,049,900,000 - Tesla's increase in market cap since announcing its 5-1 split. $TSLA
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S&P 500 on 1/5/22 - 4,700
S&P 500 on 1/5/24 - 4,697
The most precious commodity of all is time, and the last two years in the market have been a complete waste of it.
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The S&P just hit its most oversold level of the year at more than two standard deviations below its 50-DMA.
All but three sectors are oversold as well. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary are the most extended to the downside. 🤮
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Here's how YoY CPI would look going forward with a constant 0.1% MoM print like today's headline reading.
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Lithium prices are in a near-70% drawdown after a 1,300% rally.
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The market cap of "Amazon's Rumored Stock Split" ($32 billion) is larger than nearly half of all S&P 500 companies.
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Stocks in the Russell 2000 are down an average of 22.3% from their 52-week highs, and nearly 200 are down over 50%.
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Worst first week of December (-4.4%) for the Nasdaq since 1975.
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For the second time in six months, the Nasdaq has gone from 'extreme' oversold to 'extreme' overbought in less than four weeks.
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Here's one way to think about investing in equities and "buy and hold."
Casinos make money by making sure bettors eventually lose more often than they win. The stock market is the opposite. The longer you play, the better your odds.
Historically, the odds of the S&P 500 being
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Does this look like an earnings apocalypse?
Of roughly 60 earnings results this morning:
EPS beat rate: 77%
Sales beat rate: 73%
Companies raising guidance: 5
Companies lowering guidance: 2
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With all the hawkish Fed comments out there, remember that just a year ago, half of them weren't expecting any hikes this year and one was expecting rates to stay at zero in 2023.
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After a 50% drawdown, FANG+ is now just 7.8% from its all-time high.
Read more:
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The last two times the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high but then dropped for the next four days weren't bullish for the market at all. BUT...
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SPY has made lower lows on 33 of the last 50 trading days. That's tied for the most in the ETF's history.
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If you're thinking about getting out of equities now, here's a look at the S&P's performance after 10%+ down quarters since WW2:
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For the first time since April, the S&P 500 closed over 1% above its 200-DMA and the more than year long downtrend has finally been broken.
Read more in tonight's Closer:
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The market is now projecting a Fed Funds rate of 4.10% by the July meeting, or just under 50 bps of cuts from current levels. This was at 5.66% last Wednesday. That's 150 basis points of looser policy in less than a week.
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Facebook is down 37% since announcing its name change last October.
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Here’s a look at the four 10%+ corrections we’ve had in the last two years. Just registered
#4
last week. How deep will this one end up being?
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The S&P has been up in 16 of the last 18 weeks. That hasn’t happened in more than 50 years!
Occurrences since 1950:
June 1957
August 1958
March 1964
March 1971
March 2024
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If NVIDIA $NVDA goes up 3-4x from here, that puts its market cap in the $6-$8 trillion range.
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