Jack Miller
@JackMiller02
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NFL fantasy, betting, and projections for @EstablishTheRun . Sports bettor.
Joined November 2018
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Gardner Minshew lived in a bus outside of a gym this offseason. He connected the bus to the gym's electricity to power his fridge, AC, and cooking station. He used the gym's bathroom all summer and showered out in the open wearing compression shorts.
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Leaving CMC in my lineup during his bye next week as a sign of respect
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DJ Moore is WR9 on the year in PPR, on pace for 99/1,307/5 on 153 targets. Hasn’t had fewer than eight targets in a game since Week 4. Fourth in NFL in receiving yards, fifth in targets, sixth in receptions.
He’s 22 years old. Playing with a backup QB.
This guy is stupid good.
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The Bills tried to sign Chase Edmonds in free agency. Tried to sign JD McKissic in free agency. Invested a second-round pick in James Cook.
Basically, they have been trying to acquire a pass-catching running back for a while.
Finally get their guy in Nyheim Hines.
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@DrJesseMorse
I’ll toss some more names out there:
Jeremy McNichols
Justin Jackson
Damien Williams
Kenny Gainwell
Marlon Mack
Devontae Booker
Darrel Williams
Alexander Mattison
Tony Pollard
Jamaal Williams
Benny Snell
Samaje Perine
Salvon Ahmed
Travis Homer
Don’t say I didn’t warn you!
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NFL suspended Falcons WR Calvin Ridley for the 2022 season for betting on games.
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The process behind Antonio Gibson was always his massive rushing workload and high TD expectation on this electric Washington offense.
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Modified Zero RB remains the best strategy in fantasy football. Over the last six years, best ball teams that took one RB in the first two rounds and their RB2 after Round 6 averaged a 10.4% win rate (via
@RotoViz
). Above-expectation in five consecutive seasons.
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Through (almost) two weeks, DJ Moore is fourth in the NFL in targets and fifth in air yards. He's the clear alpha on a team that is going to be forced into negative script a lot. Bona fide WR1 in fantasy. For some reason, he isn't always valued as such. Take advantage if you can.
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Haven't been very active on here lately. Graduated college then took a couple of quick trips.
But I'm excited to say I start full-time with
@EstablishTheRun
on Monday. Grateful to ETR for the opportunity and
@2Hats1Mike
/
@MarkDank
for allowing me to join the NFL projections team.
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Sportsbooks love parlays because they win more. 15-30% profit on parlays vs. <10% for other bets.
As such, parlays get a bad rap among bettors. It's wise for most to avoid parlays, but the reason for that is misunderstood.
Let's clear up some misconceptions about parlays 👇
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Calvin Ridley lapped the field in air yards last year. Leaderboard:
1. Ridley without Julio (seven games) - 155.9 AY per game
2. Ridley with Julio (eight games) - 120.1
3. Tyreek Hill - 114.2
4. Stefon Diggs - 107.1
5. DK Metcalf - 105.4
6. DJ Moore - 103.0
Data via
@RotoViz
.
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For best ball drafters looking to game-stack Weeks 15-17, CHI, GB, MIN, and SEA have a nice pseudo-round robin. Drafting players from 3+ of those teams gives you correlation throughout the whole playoffs.
CHI: MIN, DET, SEA
GB: SEA, NO, MIN
MIN: CHI, SEA, GB
SEA: GB, MIN, CHI
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@FDSportsbook
Now you guys are going to have people complaining every time someone gets hurt early 👏👏👏
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In 2019, Tee Higgins finished with a 59/1,167/13 line. Only 11 of those catches, 169 of those yards, and two of those TDs came after halftime.
In other words, 81.3% of his receptions, 85.5% of his yards, and 84.6% of his TDs were in the first 50% of the game.
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After a meh debut, Antonio Gibson began his takeover in Week 2:
- Increased snap rate from 26% to 65%
- Went from nine carries to 13
- Eight routes run in Week 1 vs. 22 in Week 2
Peyton Barber, who turned 17 carries into 29 yards in Week 1, played just one snap on Sunday.
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Najee Harris played 55/55 snaps for the Steelers today. He becomes the first running back since Christian McCaffrey in Week 15 of 2019 to play every offensive snap in a regular-season game.
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Just a heads-up: My work will be at
@EstablishTheRun
moving forward. I’ll be doing best ball and prop betting content for ETR this summer. Excited to be working with people much sharper than me (as usual). Here's my first article:
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Since 2015, WRs who posted a positive Fantasy Points Over Expectation in their rookie year averaged a 9.6% win rate in Year 2. The 2020 candidates:
- AJ Brown
- Mecole Hardman
- Terry McLaurin
- Darius Slayton
- Marquise Brown
- Deebo Samuel
- DK Metcalf
- Diontae Johnson
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Current Week 1 receiving yards lines on DraftKings:
Brandon Aiyuk 50.5
Deebo Samuel 48.5
George Kittle 48.5
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RBs drafted in Rounds 3-6 (i.e. the RB dead zone) this year averaged a 7.9% win rate. 2020 was the sixth consecutive year this group had a below-expectation win rate.
WRs in that range were at 8.7%, their sixth straight above-expectation year.
It doesn't have to be hard.
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If you get your RB1 in Round 1 in best ball, you don't need to draft another RB for a while. Win rate for those teams based on when they took their RB2 (data from 2015-19):
Round 2 - 8.5%
3 - 7.7%
4 - 8.2%
5 - 9.8%
6 - 11.1%
7 - 11.1%
8 - 11.5%
9 - 9.7%
Modified Zero RB 🐐
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I don’t know who’s going to emerge from Washington’s backfield. I don’t know if it’ll be Matt Breida or Jordan Howard for the Dolphins. I couldn’t tell you who will be the best RB on the Bucs.
You don’t know either.
And that’s exactly why you should target those backfields.
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lol I applied to get verified thinking I had no shot and the madmen actually did it
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In 2011, Tim Tebow started 11 games. He completed 46.7% of his passes. 6.3 yards per attempt. 11 passing TDs in 11 games. Lost six fumbles. Disastrous.
He averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game. Not good, but still would’ve been QB15 by PPG in 2021.
This is a Trey Lance tweet.
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@LoechnerNFL
@evansilva
Any time you can take the older QB who has yet to take an NFL snap over the younger NFL MVP, you have to do it.
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All of my content will be on
@EstablishTheRun
moving forward. Love everything the ETR team is doing and excited to be part of it.
I love the way
@JackMiller02
thinks about fantasy and betting -- data-driven with sharp context.
So excited to announce Jack's work will now exclusively be at
@EstablishTheRun
. He'll be joining our projections team while focusing on Best Ball, Season-Long fantasy, and Props.
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Jalen Hurts finished as the QB7 in fantasy on a per-game basis last year. This offseason, the Eagles declared Hurts their 2022 starting QB, chose not to sign or draft a quarterback (except UDFA Carson Strong), and traded for AJ Brown.
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@peteroverzet
smart of you to get the kenyan drake stack. haven't seen anyone else pull it off.
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I need Antonio Gibson to do really well in one league and bad in another, excited to watch the game and have absolutely no fun at all
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Antonio Gibson just became one of the hottest names in fantasy football.
For good reason. There's a lot to like:
- 4.39 40 at 228 pounds (99th percentile Speed Score)
- 21% Dominator Rating as a WR last year
- Round 3 draft capital
- WAS offense likely to take a step forward
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DJ Moore had nine targets on 35 pass attempts (25.7% share) and 100 air yards out of 279 available air yards (35.8%). Both of those percentages are higher than what he had in 2019. If this is the prevailing opinion, go get DJ Moore.
FF Twitter is prettay prettay prettay quiet about the prospects of the Panthers WR trio all having similar value this year
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The Bears had 11 team pass attempts in a 27-10 loss tonight.
Since 2000, there are only two instances of a team having fewer pass attempts in a double-digit loss: Denver in Week 12 of 2020 (Kendall Hinton game) and Houston in Week 7 of 2005 (David Carr 6/9 for 48 yards).
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Najee Harris had 19 targets today, the second-highest single-game total of any running back since at least 1950 (only behind Alvin Kamara's 20-target performance in 2018).
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Per
@PFF
, Brandon Aiyuk ran more routes in Week 3 (44) than Weeks 1-2 combined (35). It appears the second-year pro is fully out of Kyle Shanahan's doghouse. Interestingly, Trent Sherfield – who was splitting snaps with Aiyuk – fell behind Mohamed Sanu too.
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A gentle reminder that parlays are only usually bad because most people are losing sports bettors. The graph below (which uses -110 vig) shows how parlays compound negative EV bets.
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Tee Higgins is my most-drafted WR right now. Hits so many breakout indicators:
- Year 2 WR who was efficient as a rookie
- Strong prospect with Round 2 draft capital
- ADP in a range conducive to WR breakouts
- Fast, pass-heavy offense
IMO, he's undervalued by at least a round.
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Laviska Shenault broke out at 20.2, left school with a 29% career receiving yards MS, and got picked in Round 2. Jags WRs are shaky after DJ Chark. His top-four comps in the RV Box Score Scout:
- AJ Brown
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Michael Thomas
- DeAndre Hopkins
Way too cheap.
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I'm looking through waiver wire articles and not seeing KJ Hamler mentioned enough. Strong prospect - 29% receiving yards MS across two seasons at Penn State, 20.4 breakout age - and he led the Broncos in air yards yesterday and tied Jerry Jeudy with seven targets.
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@MikeTagliereNFL
Respect. Tweeted earlier about how other FantasyPros analysts hadn’t said anything against him, now realize that was probably for legal reasons or something. Thanks for these videos.
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In one game without JK Dobbins (and Lamar Jackson) last year, Gus Edwards played 52% of snaps and Justice Hill played 48%. Both had nine carries. Clearly an enormous boost to Edwards but wouldn't expect him to suddenly have monopoly on backfield. Second back could be relevant.
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Justin Fields is going to leave Ohio State as one of the most efficient college QBs in recent memory. Elite recruit who came in and just dominated as a starter - sophomore season (11.2 AY/A) was ridiculous. He's closer to Trevor Lawrence than Zach Wilson IMO.
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A good reminder that props represent a median outcome and are adjusted down to include injury risk, while ADP attempts to summarize a range of outcomes. Do not recommend using props for your fantasy process.
Based on Amon-Ra St. Brown's NFLSZN Projections, his fantasy points total out to 181.8 👀
That would have made him the WR18 last year and the WR21 in 2021.
He's currently the 9th WR off the board in BBMIV 🤯
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@JFowlerESPN
@DannyBKelly
An NFL week can not truly begin until we get a report about Rachaad White getting more work
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"I would say [Marquez Valdes-Scantling] has been the star of camp so far. A potential breakout candidate — not just for the Packers but the entire NFL."
Steady buzz that he's GB WR2. At WR76 ADP, still cheaper than Randall Cobb and going much later than GB WR2 in past few years.
Separated the Packers’ roster into five groups with regards to the 53-man roster ahead of Saturday’s preseason finale. Cutdown day is Tuesday.
• Locks (39 players)
• Looking good (10)
• Toss ups (7)
• Probably out (10)
• Little to no chance (14)
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Easy to get excited about James Cook.
Singletary's 39.7 receiving grade (
@PFF
) in 2021 was among worst in NFL. Has never had above-average receiving grade in three years.
BUF tried to bring in McKissic in FA.
Cook was a productive receiver at Georgia and got Round 2 draft cap.
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Week 1 target leaders at tight end:
1. Darren Waller (12)*
2. TJ Hockenson (10)
T-3. Rob Gronkowski (8)
T-3. James O'Shaughnessy (8)
T-3. Jared Cook (8)
T-3. Kyle Pitts (8)
T-3. Noah Fant (8)
* one half left to play
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The fantasy playoffs are the most important time of the season. How many points can we expect each team to score in Weeks 15-17 (via SuperBook)?
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In eight healthy games with Justin Herbert, Ekeler averaged 11.9 carries and 7.9 targets per game. In PPR, that would’ve made him the RB2 in weighted opportunity last year. RB4 in half-PPR.
Some Austin Ekeler hype here:
"He's a perfect fit for the scheme Joe Lombardi will be running... he should have a field day with Ekeler, lining him up out wide, in slot, and backfield. Ekeler is going to put up huge numbers in the running/passing game."
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Giants WR prices on DraftKings for Week 1:
Sterling Shepard $4,900
Kenny Golladay $4,800
Darius Slayton $4,200
Kadarius Toney $4,100
Wan'Dale Robinson $3,000
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Player props for Rams vs. Bills are live on Caesars. Current lines:
Stefon Diggs 66.5 receiving yards (over -119)
Gabe Davis 65.5 receiving yards (over -135)
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Through two games, Diontae Johnson has more targets (23 vs. 14) and air yards (144 vs. 58) than JuJu Smith-Schuster and it's really not that close in either category.
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Talked with Adam and Dink about draft strategy based on what pick you have. These are also available on YouTube, where I am already drawing rave reviews
#testimonials
New 3-part podcast series up.
I talked to
@DrewDinkmeyer
&
@JackMiller02
about
#FantasyFootball
draft strategy and players from different spots in Round 1: Picks 1-4, 5-18, 9-12.
Free here:
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In 14 healthy games last season, Tee Higgins averaged 11.5 half-PPR PPG – 26th among WRs.
In 10 games with Burrow, he averaged 12.1 – 20th among WRs. As a rookie.
Year 2 jump for WRs is well-chronicled. Rave reviews this offseason. Strong prospect profile.
Current ADP: WR24.
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Antonio Gibson checks all of the boxes as a Zero RB target:
- Ambiguous WAS backfield
- Proven pass-catching ability (21% Dominator Rating last year as a college WR)
- Solid draft capital as a Round 3 pick
- 4.39 speed at 229 pounds (99th percentile Speed Score)
Draft him.
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Drafting an RB early is risky, but the potential reward is unmatched. After that, should you roll the dice again or look for other positions?
It depends. On the format, the scoring, and how you think you'll draft after that. My thoughts for
@NBCSEdgeFB
:
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@Ihartitz
Will be invigorating to read 100 articles this week saying to buy low on Chris Olave
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It's dangerous to forecast events five months in advance, but there is one group that dependably and intuitively performs best at the end of the year: rookies. In leagues that emphasize the last few weeks (e.g. tournaments and redraft), it's generally smart to target rookies.
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Joe Mixon averaged 20.2 carries and 4.6 targets per game when healthy in 2020 (both career highs). OC Brian Callahan said that "he has the ability and skill set to be a three-down player." Gio Bernard (now in TB) averaged 3.2 targets per game with Mixon healthy last four years.
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Dyami Brown is supremely underrated in dynasty and a fun dart throw in best ball. His prospect profile:
- 20.1 breakout age (31% Dominator Rating as a true sophomore playing alongside Round 6 pick Dazz Newsome)
- Top-10 in YPR in each of last two seasons
- Round 3 draft capital
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@Rotoworld_FB
Clicking on the story shows that the Raiders' first-team offense also featured Zay Jones, Nelson Agholor, and Devontae Booker. Nothing to panic about with Ruggs.
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Odds to win the AFC West via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Chargers +125
Chiefs +150
Broncos +500
Raiders +1100
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I'm uninformed about prospects right now + many people have been doing this for months, but I think it's interesting that UNC's Dyami Brown has back-to-back seasons with a >30% Dominator. Ranked outside the top-15 at most places (behind his older teammate who he has outproduced).
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Elijah Moore needs more love:
- 12% Dominator Rating as a freshman behind AJ Brown and DK Metcalf
- 46% DR as a sophomore and 37% as a junior
- 19.7 breakout age
- 29% career MS yards
- Projected second-round draft capital
17.9 (WR7) ADP in rookie drafts.
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In 2020, WRs with a best ball ADP in Rounds 3-6 averaged an 8.7% win rate, making it the sixth consecutive season this group has posted an above-expectation win rate. The RB dead zone is alive and well.
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Usual disclaimer that I don't know much about prospects at this time of year, but I'm pretty confident putting the guy who outperformed Justin Jefferson and posted a 32% Dominator Rating as a sophomore over the four-year WR who rose sharply because of senior-year production.
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My first RotoViz article came out one year ago today, which is cool. I heard some people are even doing fireworks later, which seems overboard to me (maybe for five years or something, but one?), but I appreciate the gesture.
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Brandon Staley on that drive:
- Goes for it on 4th & 2 from his own 24
- Goes for it on 4th & 7 from CLE 22
- Goes for two-point conversion after scoring a TD down 14
✅✅✅
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Tee Higgins might end up as my highest-owned player. So many reasons he’s 🚀:
- Year 2 major breakout year for WRs
- CIN led league in plays/game and situation-neutral pass rate with Burrow
- 7.9 targets and 105.4 air yards/game when he and Burrow were healthy last year
Buy.
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It does seem pretty insane that FanDuel is allowed to add whatever useless info they want to sway users into betting these one-way markets.
Hilariously irresponsible for FanDuel Sportsbook to put “has happened 4 years in a row” on a course that hasn’t hosted a pro event since 1940. Betting trends are almost always dumb and dangerous.
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Who should we expect to be the highest-scoring teams in 2021? Average implied team total in Weeks 1-16 using SuperBook odds:
1. KC (29.5)
2. TB (28.3)
3. BUF (27.6)
4. IND (25.9)
5. DAL (25.5)
...
28. CIN (21.7)
29. CHI (21.2)
30. NYJ (21.0)
31. DET (19.9)
32. HOU (19.7)
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In the nine games for which both Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow were healthy in 2020, Higgins averaged 7.9 targets and 103 air yards per game (per
@4for4football
). He scored 12.1 half-PPR points per game (WR20 pace). As a rookie. Year 2 is the major breakout year for WRs.
ADP: WR23.
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Leaders in PPR weighted opportunity per game last season:
1. Christian McCaffrey (21.7)
2. Dalvin Cook (19.5)
3. Joe Mixon (18.7)
4. Alvin Kamara (18.5)
5. Ezekiel Elliott (17.6)
Weighted opportunity calculates the value of an RB's workload with league-average efficiency.
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Alvin Kamara ran 17 routes on 42 Jameis Winston dropbacks (40.5%) in Week 1.
He stayed in to block 11 times. Before yesterday, he had never gotten more than seven pass-blocking snaps in a game.
Not great!
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2020 was a Zero RB year. And I'm just using best ball data where guys like James Robinson and Myles Gaskin weren't contributing.
Teams who drafted their RB1 in Round 4 had a 9.1% win rate. RB1 in Round 5 gave you a 10.5% win rate. Round 6 was 15.2%. And after Round 6 was 12.6%.
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In 2019, Devin Singletary averaged 4.7 YPT and recorded the third-worst receiving DVOA among all RBs with at least 25 targets.
Zack Moss accounted for 14% of Utah's receiving yards last year, the third-best mark in the 2020 RB class (behind two college WRs in Bowden and Gibson).
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You don’t want to be too reactive to camp buzz, but that’s hard when Elijah Moore had an elite prospect profile too. Moore:
- Broke out at age 19.7 (>30% DR)
- Led FBS in yards and receptions per game in 2020 (ahead of the Heisman winner)
- Left school with a 29% career yards MS
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DJ Moore averaged 16.4 PPG (seventh-most among WRs) in 14 healthy games last year. As a 22-year-old with Kyle Allen at QB.
One of the best prospects in recent memory with a historic start to his career. Panthers won't throw as much, but they should still be high-volume.
🚀
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@benbbaldwin
When a lot of smart people disagree with these rankings and insist that the Lions' o-line is among the best in the league, do you reconsider your viewpoint or do you think your methodology is sound?
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Most-targeted rookie WRs 2017-20:
1. 2020 Justin Jefferson (125)
2. 2020 Jerry Jeudy (113)
3. 2020 Chase Claypool (109)
4. 2020 CeeDee Lamb (109)
5. 2020 Tee Higgins (107)
6. 2019 DK Metcalf (100)
7. 2020 Darnell Mooney (98)
8. 2020 Brandon Aiyuk (97)
2020 WR class: not bad.
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At this time last week, Jabari Smith was around -500 on most books to go first overall with some places having him as short as -600.
Right now,
@CaesarsSports
has Jabari at -120, Chet Holmgren at -110, and Paolo Banchero at +600.
Nine days until the NBA Draft.
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Between 2015-20, rookie WRs who posted >0 Fantasy Points Over Expectation (per
@RotoViz
) averaged a 9.0% win rate in Year 2. Guys who fit the mold:
- Justin Jefferson
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Chase Claypool
- Laviska Shenault
- Henry Ruggs
- Gabriel Davis
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"[Terrace] Marshall is the early favorite to win the No. 3 receiver spot ... [Matt] Rhule was more understated, but did say: 'We’re trying to force-feed Terrace and bring him along as fast as we can.'"
Seven surprises from Panthers camp: Dan Arnold leads the list, but there are several other under-the-radar guys making noise in Spartanburg.
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