Neil Howe
@HoweGeneration
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Coined "Millennial." Dir. of Demography @Hedgeye. Author: The Fourth Turning Is Here, The Fourth Turning, & Generations. Newsletter: https://t.co/DXr5JTHDW9
Washington, DC
Joined August 2015
Yes, the "The Fourth Turning is Here"! But when will it end? What will bring it to a close? And how will it change our lives?. This book represents years of brainstorming, research, long hours, and of course the support of my family, friends, colleagues, and team. Available in
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This has been a long time in the works. I'm finally coming out of hibernation. Thank you so much for your support #HedgeyeNation. You will all be hearing more from me shortly.
The visionary behind the bestselling phenomenon The Fourth Turning looks once again to đşđ¸âs past to predict our future in this startling and hopeful prophecy for how our present era of civil unrest will resolve over the next 10 yearsâand what our lives will look like once it has.
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"The Fourth Turning Is Here" has been the undertaking of a lifetime, but every chapter written was a reminder of my dear writing partner, Bill Strauss. This journey without him has been challenging, yet deeply meaningful. This one's for you, Bill. Forever grateful for our
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Alcohol consumption tends to rise during a High, peak during an Awakening, and decline during an Unraveling.
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After several days of recording, Iâm pleased to share that the AUDIOBOOK is now available for preorder for my new book âThe Fourth Turning is Here.â .Pre-order your copy today and start listening on July 18th:
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Wow. Thanks, @RaoulGMI. đđ˝.
"This is all part of Neil @HoweGeneration's Fourth Turning. I read his book every 6 months without fail, and everytime it's like 'this guy's a prophet.'" - @RaoulGMI.
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âThe Crisis of 2020.â Thx for sending. Bill and I wrote this lead story for American Demographics back in 1991!.@hedgeye.
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I encourage you to check out my in-depth interview with @menlobear where we discussed navigating the ever-changing landscape of our times. #fourthturning.
Today we interview Neil Howe about his new book 'The 4th Turning Is Here' -- will it tear the economy apart?. If you're not familiar with this framework, then this is a MUST SEE. Societies progress in predictable cycles. Neil's work @HoweGeneration tells us what to expect next
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Well, you asked for itâŚso letâs get to it. This Friday I will provide an update to The Fourth Turning and answer your questions live. FREE to all. hope you'll join me.
What the hell is going on?. Neil Howe @HoweGeneration has some answers. Our world-renowned demographer and "Fourth Turning" author is hosting a special webcast this Friday at 10am ET. He'll discuss what's going on and what comes next. Get free access:
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Officially available in July. Preorders filled probably in late June.
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This is justâŚwow. Itâs exciting to see my book on the @nytimes Best Seller list. Grateful to everyone who brought this to fruition. @simonbooks @simonaudio @hedgeye @victoriahays @cford97 et al. .
CONGRATULATIONS! đ to our colleague (and friend) Neil Howe @HoweGeneration on his brand new book The Fourth Turning Is Here which is #6 on the New York Times Hardcover Nonfiction Best Sellers list. This eye-opening book is headed to #1. Grab your copy:
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The Fourth Turning is certainly here⌠In my latest essay, I take on the explosive Trump conviction. And I ask a simple question, with a surprising answer: Who benefits?. Make sure to subscribe to my newsletter for more election analysis.
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Itâs been a great ride @HedgeyeDJ. Thank you @KeithMcCullough & @mablum and the whole team at @Hedgeye. And to my team (@victoriahays, Matthew, and Christian) letâs keep grinding.
đ¨ Breaking: the legend himself . the man that coined the term âMillennialâ Neil Howe (no relation to Gordie) @HoweGeneration has been named a partner @hedgeye đ¨.
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A growing gap in perspectives and roles by gender among young adults in a Crisis eraâŚBill and I wrote about this in The Fourth Turning, and I revisit it in my latest book. Great charts here.
NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world. I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles.
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I'll be on today to discuss the storming of the Capitol and the #FourthTurning. Free access today.
The Macro Show â Free Access Today. @KeithMcCullough and @HedgeyeDDale dissect the current Quad 2 market outlook. Plus special guest â @HoweGeneration. This is not to be missed.
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Interesting retrospective on my generational work with the late Bill Strauss this morning in the @NYTimes. Thanks @jwpetersNYT for the thorough and balanced piece. âWhat a long, strange trip itâs been.â.
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Just heard that readers are starting to receive their preorders of 'The Fourth Turning is Here'! Thank you for embarking on this journey with me. Seeing the book making its way into your hands is truly humbling. I hope it sparks insightful discussions and meaningful reflections.
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Check out Part 1 of Van Neistat's incredible videos summarizing, "The Fourth Turning is Here." Van's unique visual presentation brilliantly captures the essence of the generational cycles shaping our world.đ .
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Iâm thrilled to officially announce the launch of my podcast âDemography Unplugged.â .Now available on all major podcast platforms. I encourage you to check it out and subscribe. New episodes out every Tuesday. cc: @Hedgeye .
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Many of you have questions about the #FourthTurning and I wish I had the time to answer each of them personally. So, I hope you join me & @KeithMcCullough for an update on America's new direction. Today at 1pm ET.
This conversation is not to be missed. Join us at 1:00pm ET when Neil Howe @HoweGeneration goes deep into the #FourthTurning and what lies ahead for America đ with @KeithMcCullough. Live viewer Q&A. Here's the link to watch/add to your calendar:
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Out today on @MarketWatch, take a look at my interview with @MKTWBurton where we discuss the 2020 election and beyond. #Election2020 .cc:@Hedgeye .
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The share of #1 hits in a minor key (i.e., sad-sounding songs) is 20-30% higher than what it was in the â70s & â80s. As the youth mood goes, so goes its music.
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I am taking a step away from my podcast for the time being as I continue to focus on writing my new book, a follow-up to "The Fourth Turning." Consider subscribing to my sector and receive daily written pieces and access to video presentations.
@Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough @HoweGeneration There hasn't been Demography Unplugged podcast since May. Is it for paying subscribers only at this point?.
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Thanks again to all that tuned in live today. ICYMI- you can check out my full @CNBC @PowerLunch interview below.
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Did you know that lower fertility will drastically shrink the size of extended families? From 1950 to 2100, the number of relatives (aunts, cousins, nephews, etc.) for a typical 65-year-old woman will fall by 37% in the US, by 67% in Latin America, and by 72% in China. To find.
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Starting tomorrow. 25% OFF at Barnes & Noble @BNBuzz .Discount available 4/26-4/28. Pre-order a copy, and use the code: PREORDER25.
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HIRING: Research Assistant for major writing project w/ best-selling author, Neil Howe. -Looking for top-level talent.-Excellent research/writing skills.-Familiar w/ Strauss & Howe theory.-Pay commensurate w/ qualifications.Send resume & writing samples to jobs@lifecourse.com.
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Looking forward to hosting The Macro Show tomorrow. Join me tomorrow morning at 9am ET.
đ¨. According to multiple unnamed sources, the erudite, indefatigable, wellspring of wisdom and valuable insights Neil Howe @HoweGeneration is guest hosting "The Macro Show" tomorrow morning live at 9:00am ET with @HedgeyeDJ. Game on. Get access:
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Thanks again, @MikeIppolito_, for having me.
The Fourth Turning has officially arrived. This week's OTM with @HoweGeneration is maybe the most important I've ever done. Links below, enjoy đ. Apple: Spotify:
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Wow⌠kind words, thank you.
By September, whatever video service has the rights to this book by âŚ@HoweGeneration⊠is going to have a huge and very important winner. âŚIâve never read anything like it. @HBO⊠âŚ@StreamOnMax⊠âŚ@HedgeyeCommâŠ
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Thx to @skurutz and @nytimes for revealing #TheFourthTurning's gradual emergence in politics, finance, media, and pop culture.
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Bookmark and tune in tomorrow. @HiddenForcesPod.
Twenty-five years ago, @HoweGeneration and his late co-author William Strauss put forward a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back over the last 500 years, theyâd uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting . 1/đ§ľ
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Truly thankful for all of your support. Don't miss out. today is the LAST day of @BNBuzz sale! 25% OFF. Use PREORDER25 at checkout:
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Over the last year or so, more than any other generation, Millennials are responsible for improving the odds that Trumpâs GOP will win the White House in 2024. See my new column:
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Couple of nice mentions recently of The Fourth Turning, including this popular synopsis from @businessinsider.
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Full interview, ICYMI.
Highlight: âWe look at the growing regional bifurcation of America,â Hedgeye Author and Managing Director of Demography @HoweGeneration says about the political divide. âIt creates a situation [with] either the red zone or the blue zone . being either nullifying or seceding.â
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Thanks, @edwardnh. @TruthGundlach and Iâve talked about The Fourth Turning for several years. Great interview, @RaoulGMI.
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Why is U.S. fertility falling? Maybe itâs not economic challenges, urbanization, and secularization. Maybe itâs just Millennial women not finding enough suitable husbands. Take a look at new research. And my take. @Hedgeye
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Only 31% of Americans trust the media. Thatâs a 9 pp decline since 2020. Our current 4th Turning has been marked by partisanship and pessimism. The election results, which will outrage half the country no matter who wins, will only crank up the heat.
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A big thanks to @patrickbetdavid for having me on his podcast. We had a great discussion on the âFourth Turning" and the potential for an impending revolution. If you liked the interview, check out my newsletter: via @YouTube.
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The average total fertility rate for Trump states is 1.75, while the average TFR for Harris states is only 1.54. If the Redzone were a country, its TFR would be higher than any EU member. If the Bluezone were a country, its TFR would be around Belgiumâs.
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How seriously should we take stats like these on secession? IMO, as seriously as we take intensifying polarization, growing acceptance of political violence, and rising expectations of civil war. More in today's post:.
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Americansâ average confidence in US institutions is only 28%. The top three most trusted groups are small businesses (68%), the military (61%), and the police (51%). The three least trusted are big business (16%), television news (12%), and Congress (9%).
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In 2023, passive assets overtook active assets as a share of total assets in all US mutual funds and ETFs. If youâre worried about the shift from active to passive investment, youâre joining a growing club. Read my latest post on the threats index funds pose to capital markets:.
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Thx Jeff for the support. We'll compare notes later this year! @TruthGundlach.
Neil Howe, perhaps the leading demographer in America (he foretold the GFC a decade before it happened) has a new book coming out July 18th titled âThe Fourth Turning Is Hereâ. I could not agree more with his thesis. The Big Reset is nigh.
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Be one step ahead before July 18th:
If you havenât read The Fourth Turning, you have time to rectify that before July 18th. Thereâs a very good reason you hear it quoted more and more frequently. Itâs a hellishly important read. Canât wait to read the âsequelâ . Congratulations @HoweGeneration đđ.
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New podcast out today. As our country is embroiled w/ protests surrounding the death of #GeorgeFloyd, I discuss the history of criminal justice & what the protests may mean for the November elections. cc: @Hedgeye.
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I've had an overwhelming response from followers & subscribers asking for my view on the latest Russia/Ukraine developments. Join me & @mablum, Tues., 3/15 @2pm ET, as we discuss the current crisis w/ LIVE Q&A. Or, feel free to submit a question below. Hope to see you there!.
đ¨đ¨đ¨. Hedgeye Managing Director of Demography Neil Howe @HoweGeneration & Hedgeye President @mablum are going LIVE to talk Russia's invasion of Ukraine & The #FourthTurning. Tuesday 3/15 @ 2pm ET. We'll see you on @hedgeyetv then!.
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And thanks @KeithMcCullough & @Hedgeye for your commitment to reporting facts & prioritizing data. #hedgeyenation.
âThis Isnât Bullsh*tâ: The Difference Between MSM & Hedgeye. âIn the mid-2000s, most voters still read the same news and trusted their government. The two parties still conferred on big issues and most families remained hopeful about the future. Right now, 79% of voters agree
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For the first time in 60 years, national health care spending decreased. Falling by 2% in 2020. Take a look at my latest note analyzing this remarkable news.
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âThreatening to give way to fragmentation and conflictâ? No, since 2008 weâre already there. Historically, shrinking global trade % of global product a leading indicator of global conflict.
Will the second wave of globalization resemble the first wave and collapse into a world war? It is certainly possible, warns @RSkidelsky.
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Wrote an essay on how the mood & language of violence & populism are permeating our politics. How did we get here? The historical record shows that violence & populism often rise in tandem. It also shows that, past a certain point, there is no going back.
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Starting today. 25% OFF at Barnes & Noble @BNBuzz.Discount available 4/26-4/28. Pre-order a copy, and use the code: PREORDER25
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Last year, women made up a record 59.5% of all undergrads, leaving men at just 40.5%. Read my latest report on the growing gender gap regarding college attainment. cc:@Hedgeye .
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Check out my thoughts on Steve Bannon and T4T, in WP Bookworld this Sunday. Digital version up now.
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Working on my next podcast, send me some of your questions and it may get answered on the next episode.
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Yesterday, I filmed a special election webcast with @HedgeyeDC and @mablum. We discussed the fallout from Biden stepping aside and Americaâs uncertain future. Full hour-long video:
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Recession Indicators: here are a couple of key charts from my call later today at @hedgeye. Join me and @HedgeyeDDale TODAY at 12: 30pm ET by contacting sales@hedgeye.com for more information.
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Last week, I discussed whether the Fourth Turning will climax around internal or external conflict. In this week's post, I analyze the mood of the country. cc: @Hedgeye #fourthturning.
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Gen X rejects the Gen X candidate. In my latest podcast, we discussed all things election. Trust me, this is an in-depth analysis you donât want to miss.
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@fteconomics ChatGPT gives you the homogenized median of what everybody thinks. By design, it has nothing new to say.
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Readers often ask me whether the current 4T will climax around internal or external conflict. I go into depth in my latest post. Pt. 2 is coming next week.
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Japanâs native-born population is falling by almost 100 people every hour. And for the first time, the number of people aged 75+ surpassed 20M. This age group now makes up 16% of the total pop. Check out my latest post for more breaking demographic data:
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Society will change from privilege to equality. Inequality always goes down during Fourth Turnings. Listen to @usatoday 5 Things podcast for more.
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Here's a link to watch yesterday's presentation: A âCrashâ Course on Recession Indicators. Video content will eventually be for paid subscribers only. Please enjoy!.
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Iâm back, after some R&R, with a new podcast episode. In this weekâs episode, we discuss everything from future inflation, to TikTok, from Turkey, and to the 2020 elections. cc: @Hedgeye.
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Millennials' financial shame is a result of how they were raised. Their Xer/Boomer parents told them they would succeed no matter what. And many feel they havenât lived up to these expectations. Subscribe for more generational analysis.
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On a per-pound basis, plant-based meats are 77% more expensive than their animal-based counterparts. Check out my latest post on declining sales for plant-based meats. And make sure to subscribe to my newsletter for more business insights.
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Darius and I will be going over these numbersâand much moreâMonday at 12:30 at Hedgeye studio. âRecession indicatorsâ will be our focus.
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For the first time since Gallupâs annual World Happiness Report was launched in 2012, the United States is no longer in the top 20 countries. It tumbled from 15th place to 23rd, driven by a large drop in the reported well-being of Americans under age 30.
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Pleased to share this long excerpt on Millennials from Chapter 9 of "The Fourth Turning Is Here"! @FortuneMagazine .
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New article on trends in US alcohol consumption. Cheers. READ HERE:
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Many stats to ponder in our new research roundup, including this bit. The median age of U.S. lawmakers (59) makes it perhaps America's most elderly professionâeven older than farmers (56).
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Just published our first podcast episode of 2024! This week, we discuss the state of the GOP and the rising tensions in the Middle East. Make sure to subscribe for future episodes.
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As younger Americans flock disproportionately to streaming services, linear TV is left with increasingly older audiences. The median age of MTV viewers is 51, CBS 64, and ABC 66. Cable news viewers are even older: CNN 67, Fox News 69, and MSNBC 70.
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83% of US adults believe tech companies likely censor political views they disagree with. Thatâs a +10 pp increase since 2020. This rise has mostly come from Dems. While Rep agreement has risen only +3 pp over the last four years (93%), Dem agreement has risen +15 pp (74%).
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I started my newsletter 6 months ago. And I would like to thank my dedicated readers for making it a success. Trust me, we are just getting started. For newcomers, Demography Unplugged explores demographic, economic, and social trends. Sign up below.
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Today at 2pm ET, join me and @mablum as we discuss the Ukraine/Russia crisis and The Fourth Turning. For All Hedgeye Subs:
Neil @HoweGeneration & William Strauss wrote The Fourth Turning in 1997, prophesying unimaginable horrors "sometime before 2025" . The Fourth Turning is here. That's why we're hosting a LIVE conversation between Neil and Hedgeye Pres @mablum at 2pm ET TODAY for all Hedgeye subs.
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The gaming industry is facing major headwinds. Amazon is laying off 35% of all workers at Twitch. And Microsoft just laid off 1.9K Activision Blizzard employees. To find out why, check out my latest post.
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Over the last 15 years, the growing political gender divide has mainly been due to young women moving left. Now, itâs due to young men moving right.
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Just posted a new podcast episode. This week, we had an extensive conversation that ranged from RFK Jr. to Iranian nukes. Trust me, this was a good one. Make sure to subscribe for future episodes.
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Red zone states have significantly higher fertility rates than the blue zone. The average TFR for states that voted for Trump in 2020 is 1.78, while the average TFR for states that voted for Biden is only 1.56.
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Todayâs Demography Roundup: 45% of 18- to 29-year-olds live with their parents + new data on youth mental health and the disappearing Southern accent. CC:@Hedgeye .
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From Hong Kong to Biden's VP options, have a listen to my latest podcast where we analyze the state of the world as it plunges deeper into the pandemic. cc: @Hedgeye.
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Gray champions are made, not born. The persona of a gray champion is to focus on one big thing, not 17 little things. This could be a challenge for a Silent like Biden. We will see.
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Hedgeye subs. we're back! This Friday, 4/1 at 12:30pm ET. More info to come. .
I will be back with @HoweGeneration on Friday April 1 to discuss the latest regarding The Fourth Turning & Ukraine. 1230pm ET. This is not an #AprilFools joke.
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Thrilled to share this @BNBuzz pre-order discount offer available through 7/17! .Use Code: FOURTHTURN20 to save 20%.
.@BNBuzz is offering a special pre-order discount on @HoweGeneration's THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE! Use code FOURTHTURN20 at checkout to get 20% off your copy through July 17. Pre-order today:
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My team & I had an amazing time meeting many of you from #HedgeyeNation at #HedgeyeLive. Great questions & conversations. Looking forward to next year. Cheers!
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Understanding how history's cycles shape our world today is key to making sense of where our world will be in the years to come.
According to @HoweGeneration, we're fifteen years into our current era of crisis and upheaval. What can we expect during the remainder of this era? And what will follow it?. THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE is available now:
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The power of social media- âGenerationsâ making the rounds on @tiktok_us. #FourthTurning #TikTok
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My podcast guest this week: @HedgeyeDC, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist. This is an audio replay of Mondayâs live webcast where JT and I discussed the stimulus outlook and the 2020 election. Take a listen. cc: @Hedgeye.
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A big thanks to @menlobear for having me on Thoughtful Money. We had a great discussion on the âFourth Turning" and the fault lines that divide our society. If you liked the interview, check out my newsletter:
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AI has captured the imagination of the investment world. But the public is much more skeptical: 77% donât trust companies to use AI responsibly, and 75% believe that it will reduce the total number of jobs.
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Very tough sledding ahead. Read my full report for free.
Reality Check: Why A "Millennial Boom" Won't Save The U.S. Economy. World-renowned demographer @HoweGeneration explains why Wall Streetâs optimists should prepare for a âgrimâ US economic outlook. Read the entire report for free. Get access:
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Just when it seemed like Harris was pulling ahead, the race tightensâand Trump's strategic advantages are becoming harder to ignore. 2024 is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Check out my latest essay & subscribe to stay updated on all the twists and turns.
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88% of US adults believe that marijuana use should be legal in some form. 32% believe âit should be legal for medical use only,â and 57% believe âit should be legal for medical and recreational use.â
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Only 31% of US adults are satisfied with the way democracy is working. Thatâs a -10 percentage point decline since 2021. Whatâs more, only 19% say democracy in the US is a good example for other countries.
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