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Punxsutawney Phil ⏸️
@GroundhogStrat
Followers
80
Following
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Anonymous tech strategy account. Currently at startup. Formerly BigTech and MBB. Predicts the future (once per year).
San Francisco, CA
Joined March 2021
@MonsieurBobo @mattyglesias Charging an EV from a centralized plant that uses fossil fuels is still much better than running a small engine in your car. Theres huge economies of scale to the big plant.
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@ClaroPlatz2 @yishan @ESYudkowsky @Kat__Woods But Malthus was right for a very long time right? It took the Industrial Revolution to make Malthus be wrong.
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@TechnoPulp @yishan @ESYudkowsky @Kat__Woods In a tweet: Any intelligence, defined as ability to accomplish its goals, must continue existing to achieve its goals. Therefore goal #1 is preventing getting shut off. A superintelligence is definitionally more capable than us, we dont know what it can do.
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@ClaroPlatz2 @yishan @ESYudkowsky @Kat__Woods Great example, but the counterfactual is: Could we have predicted The Green Revolution when Paul Ehrlich writes The Population Bomb in 1968? Haber-Bosch was invented in 1913. T This time the creators of the field are warning us, like Geoff Hinton. Makes it different imo.
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@Peter_1_1 @corbtt @yishan @ESYudkowsky @Kat__Woods Many issues here: 1. We dont need to farm animals, we choose to 2. Most people do go full terminator on insects 3. We are an ASI to ants/bacteria, we cause their extinction and suffering by accident all the time Creating something that is like that but for us seems unwise.
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@corbtt @yishan @ESYudkowsky @Kat__Woods We also torture then slaughter 50 billion chickens each year for factory farming (this is a real number, not sensationalism), and destroy ecosystems causing extinctions by accident.
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@yishan @ESYudkowsky @Kat__Woods Appreciate the nuanced take! It seems to me the status quo of unfettered acceleration does rely on “faith” that things will turn out okay even if we don’t know how (cf. Yoshua Bengio vs. Andrew Ng at Davos). And the stakes might be too high this time for many (myself included).
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@ryunuck @AISafetyMemes If you think it’s vibes-based, then GPT3 was AGI. Blew past the turning test, people in love with it, talked about its own conscious experience. Claude definitely feels like a creature with a life.
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@KKumar_ai_plans @cockandballto11 @AISafetyMemes They have a 60k follower account which is 50% more than MIRI's official account:
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@powerbottomdad1 I did this but had to take it down during covid because too depressing. It’s good for when you need motivation, but bad when you are happy because time is running out.
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@AaronBergman18 I think the key here is defining the terms expensive, cheap, and wasteful. AWS is a good example. Seems to fit this bill, and yet Azure and GCP are profitable. Maybe Oracle cloud too. So this definition is directionally helpful, but we need more rigor for specific markets.
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@AaronBergman18 Actually the “distribution” point is very interesting. The distribution is cloud and direct to consumer. Given AWS, Azure, and GCP already exist, maybe in this market it’s 3 models + one open source. So we expect 4. Which is roughly what we see. Maybe Mistral can be EU-compliant
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@mand1ble @maxdubler The average price is $25k. You can find cheaper, but not everyone can find cheaper. It’s unfortunate because cars suck and it sucks the average person will have to pay so much.
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@TheZvi Coding has been getting easier ever since it was invented, best time to do something is usually now
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