Shit just got real.
#COMEX
June
#gold
delivery notices now up to 42,016 (= 131 tonnes), up from 10,277 (= 32 t) last week! Time to fly in more bars from Switzerland!
$GLD shed 4 tonnes of
#gold
today 2/9
$SLV shed 49 tonnes of
#silver
and went from 0.6% premium to NAV to 1.5% discount
$PSLV added 9 tonnes of
#silver
, 5th day in a row of addition
#Gold
to
#oil
ratio hit 100 tonight. The old promise to
#Saudi
("You don't have to buy gold, we will make sure the value of your oil is stable in terms of gold") is broken, and thoroughly so.
#LBMA
came out claiming than a 'data submission error' led them to report a 3,863-tonne increase in
#silver
stocks in March; actual number was 561. So data comes in 5x higher than previous record and you don't double check accuracy? Riiiiight...
Impact of this cannot be overstated: savings in
#cryptocurrency
like
#Bitcoin
do NOT require any debt to be created. Disinflationary! Savers' heaven, debtor's hell!
#USMint
today 2/23 sold American Eagle coins as follows:
#gold
today: 5,000 oz
month-to-date: 123,500 oz
Feb'2020: 7,000
#silver
today: 390,500 oz
month-to-date: 3,191,500
Feb'2020: 650,000
Updated
#gold
price model shows fair value of $10,050 per ounce. The increase is driven by negative short-term interest rate of -1.3%, which is 3.3%-point below the +2% threshold for a stable gold price.
Finally, ratio of open interest to registered warehouse levels in
#gold
and
#silver
... the times where futures could dominate price with little physical
#gold
are over
#Eurodollar
#futures
#yield
curve down up to 30 bps compared to week ago. Market still convinced Fed is making policy mistake, will be forced to pause, then reverse by March 2023 latest.
So
#gold
tantrum because 10-yr Treasury went from 0.58% to 0.66%. Wow, so much real yield, I am shaking in my boots. Anyway,
#COMEX
August delivery notices up at 47,751 = 149 tonnes (+5 vs. yesterday). Good luck!
#Gold
price model update (end of April):
US 3-month interest rate: 0.02%
US inflation: 4.15%
Real rate: -4.13%
Difference to positive 2% = 6.13%
Multiplier 6.5 = 39.9%
Per month = 3,33%
Fair price end March = $11,240
Fair price end April = $11,613
@TaviCosta
Treasury auctions off $10-20 trillion each year. 85% of all Treasury debt has maturity <1 year. 8 trillion is a lot, and the fiscal deficit situation is not pretty, but let's keep things in perspective.
Quiet on the
#gold
#ETF
front today
$PHYS increased units outstanding by 71,400, but no change in number of ounces held
$SLV resumed bleeding
#silver
; lost almost 35 tonnes today 4/15 despite strong spot trading
$PSLV added another `19 tonnes
According to
#LBMA
, precious metal held "in London vaults" at end of October:
#Gold
9,308t -135 m/m
#Silver
26,502t -599 m/m
Gold decline highest in time series
#Brazil
adventures in fiat currency since 1916.
Extremely difficult to find such charts online, basically have to make your own. Most academic papers show inflation rates only.
#Inflation
may go away, but
#devaluation
doesn't. Destruction of savings more tangible like this:
The Exchange Stabilization Fund is a slush fund of the US
#Treasury
. Initially funded with $2 billion profit from the confiscation and revaluation of
#gold
in 1934 it has grown to over $200 billion now. No congressional oversight. SDR allocation boosted balance sheet in Q3:
@TaviCosta
Nobody claimed everything was peachy keen. But if you are waiting for an auction to fail you are waiting for Godot. Primary Dealers will absorb, and Fed will feed them via PDCF. I don't think the Treasury market is the breaking point; the currency is.
@profitsplusid
@FChristopher17
@PalisadesRadio
This should never happen (since new shares can always be created by AP's in exchange for silver). So an indication of physical tightness. Data from iBorrow seems to concur.