Dr. Varuzhan Geghamyan
@GVaruzhan
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Ph.D., Associate Professor at Yerevan State Uni. Writing on Turkish-Armenian relations, Turkey, Azerbaijan & MENA | Likes are bookmarks.
Armenia
Joined June 2016
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🧵 I have a continuing thread on negotiations between Armenia & Turkey which is being updated almost daily as a timeline of events.
Here is the thread link:
Armenia-Turkey talks | A thread
1/8 Talks on establishing relations between Armenia & Turkey started today in Moscow, where special envoys of 2 countries met and held negotiations. Last time AM & TR have launched similar process in 2008-2011 called "Football diplomacy".
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This is how we follow Turkey's local elections from Armenia.
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#Turkey
's Erdoğan declared at party meeting in Samsun today: "It's us in Syria, it's us in Libya, it's us in Azerbaijan with our brothers". Turkey’s involvement in Karabakh is not a secret anymore.
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Me & my grand grandfather Harout. He survived the
#ArmenianGenocide
in
#1915
in
#Mu
ş & along with few other alive members of his big family found a rescue in
#Etchmiadzin
, modern
#Armenia
. Proud to live and create in memory of him. I do remember.
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Arut Köse - an Istanbul
#Armenian
- was one of the last participants of the Korean War as a Turkey's soldier. Yesterday a military funeral was organized at Kumkapı Armenian Church in İstanbul.
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Journalists covering war now in
#Azerbaijan
&
#Armenia
.
Around 100 international journalist are in Stepanakert now, while only Turkish journalists have access to Azerbaijan.
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One of the best academic journals of the late USSR - Soviet Turkology, devoted mainly to the research on Turkic languages and cultures - is now fully available online:
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Turkey’s FM Çavuşoğlu demonstrates the sign of racist “Grey wolfs” organization to Armenians protesting in Uruguay. This is the only thing we need to know about Turkish foreign policy and attitude towards Armenia & Armenians on the eve of another anniversary of
#ArmenianGenocide
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2024 will mark 50th anniversary of invasion & occupation of Cyprus by Turkey. Given current debates in Armenia about Turkish treat & popular thesis that "US won't allow TR to attack ARM", lets learn the case of Cyprus based on late Kissinger & POTUS Ford conversation. A thread 🧵
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According to Armenian state officials, many of remaining 16 Armenian families has been evacuated from city of Tell Abyad to Aleppo. Just to remind: these families are descendants of Genocide survivors in the Ottoman Empire.
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My new book co-authored with my 3 colleagues on Armenia & Armenians in Turkish and Azerbaijani media (2019-2021) published and presented in Yerevan. Full book available online here:
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Days ago I've predicted, that Pashinyan's gov is going to sign a "Peace treaty" with AZ justifying it with a "desire to escape a new war" & finally giving up the fight for Armenian Artsakh. Leaving aside that this a politics of appeasement, let me make another prediction. 🧵1/7
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Some personal news:
I've been promoted to the rank of Associate Professor at Yerevan State University.
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The only way to stop this process is to remove the current collaboration government of Pashinyan & rebuild Armenia's strategic alliance with Iran & Russia. Otherwise Independent Republic of Armenia will be just another closed page of our long history. Maybe final page... 7/7
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Armenia’s strategic partner - Iran’s ambassador Abbas Badakhshan Zouhouri visits Yerevan State Uni. & delivers a speech on Iran-Armenia relationship. Armenia-Iran brotherhood has no alternative in the Middle East.
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Photo 1. Azerbaijani "eco-activists" group closed the only road connecting Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh (with more than 120k people) with outside world creating humanitarian crisis. What an "eco-activist" shows is Turkish ultra-nationalistic "Grey Wolves" sign.
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ATTITUDE TOWARDS ARMENIA & ARMENIANS - NEW SURVEY RESULTS | THREAD
Turkey & Armenia officials continue talks on "normalization of relations between 2 countries".
Let's see what TR citizens think about this process (check Armenians' attitude in this 🧵 - ).
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Armenia-Turkey talks | A thread
1/8 Talks on establishing relations between Armenia & Turkey started today in Moscow, where special envoys of 2 countries met and held negotiations. Last time AM & TR have launched similar process in 2008-2011 called "Football diplomacy".
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Linguistic proof of Turkey’s direct involvement in
#Azerbaijan
’s attack against
#Armenia
&
#Artsakh
.
Turkish A Haber’s reporter yesterday interviewed “a soldier of Azerbaijani army”. It is clear from his speech that he imitates Azerbaijani Turkish using wrong words & gram. forms
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High possibility for another large-scale war on Armenia by Azerbaijan in the upcoming days.
This could be both preparation for war or a way to make Armenia's PM Pashinyan give another bunch of concessions.
"Great Game" in South Caucasus continuous with severity.
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P.S. Flights to Armenia will be conducted from Istanbul's Sabiha Gökçen airport. 15 years ago today
#HrantDink
was killed in Istanbul for bringing up the Armenian roots of Sabiha (Hatun Sebilciyan) - another victim of Armenian Genocide.
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1/4 Today is the birthday of Cem Karaca (1945-2004)- prominent Turkish rock musician and one the founders of so called "Anatolian rock" movement. His musical legacy still is extremely popular in Turkey. What is little known is his Armenian roots.
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5/6 "Whether you would accept a neighbor who is an Armenian" majority of respondents (53,8 %) said "No, I don't accept". Only 8,2% answered positively.
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Last year I got a message from
@Apple
that my phone is targeted by an elite spyware "Pegasus". As a university professor my main public activities include public lectures & media talks on Turkey's & Azerbaijan's policy in South Caucasus. Here is the story what is the link.
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Our new book on History of Modern Turkey is published now (Yerevan State Uni Press).
It covers events and developments until 2023. So probably it now the most up-to-date book on Turkey's history. And written in Armenian.
I have co-authored the last two chapters - 2010-2020s.
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Once again Erdoğan talked about the current "borders" of Turkeys' geopolitical intereference in the region: "From Mediterranean sea to Black sea, from Syria to Libya, from Cyprus to
#Karabakh
we (Turkey) showed the same self-respecting attitude" pointing to Turkey's involvement.
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No matter what are final results, CHP creates a profound base for a renewed political struggle in the future years. Notabely, now Imamoğlu will have to position himself as a leader.
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Almost a week ago Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev announced snap presidential elections on 7th of February, 2024 instead of 2025.
It seems not so many focused on this, meanwhile it is important for the future of South Caucasus. Here is why.
THREAD 🧵
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Both
#Azerbaijan
and
#Turkey
spread obvious misinformation, noting that there are Kurdish fighters and terrorists from Syria in
#Armenia
.
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But the most interesting is the moment, when Turkish soldier says Turkish “Ben” (Me) and than immediately corrects himself by saying Azerbaijani “mən”. This short interview reveals the fact of presence of Turkish military personnel in Azerbaijani army.
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ATTITUDE TOWARDS TURKEY IN ARMENIA (SURVEY RESULTS) | THREAD
1/7
@IRIglobal
published another public survey results conducted in Armenia in November-December 2021. While majority is still in opposition to the current Gov, let's turn to Armenia-Turkey relations.
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Armenia's ruling party voted against the opposition-suggested announcement to condemn "Shushi declaration" signed between TR & AZ. Anti-Armenian declaration,which legalize threats to Armenia & Artsakh, is in fact being supported by Armenia's gov. Collaborationism as it is.
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Armenian state will be just a Turkish proxy with no real independence - a dispensable state. Moreover, Turkey & Azerbaijani will make new territorial claims, particularly arguing Syunik & Tavush regions as Turkish lands (They already do this on the level of rhetoric). 6/7
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My short interview for
@FoxNews
on the situation in
#NagornoKarabakh
Rep.: "Twice, I've seen cluster bombs not far away from our car while driving." V. Geghamyan described the eruption as "unprecedented," charting it as a "fight against the jihadists".
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🇹🇷's Ministry of Transport on Jan. 19 said Turkish Pegasus Airlines will operate 3 flights per week between Istanbul & Yerevan. Since the start of the negotiations between AM & TR resume of flights are widely being presented by TR as a step towards normalizing ties.
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Azerbaijan started large-scale attack on
#NagornoKarabakh
. Armenian civilian population is under attack.
#StopAzeriAgression
#NKPeace
Dağlık Karabağ cephe hattında
#Azerbaijan
ordusu geniş çaplı taarruz başlattı. Ermeni köyler ve şehirler ateş altında.
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Closure of the Armenian NPP Metsamor is another target of Turkey. In that case Armenia will totally loose it’s energy security and sovereignty. Check out on
@hayaliqcom
.
On August 18, not far from the Armenian-Turkish border, training exercises were held to prepare the population for the so-called "possible leakage" of the Metsamor nuclear power plant. This contains a dangerous implication for Armenia's energetic security.
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In the end Kissinger summarizes US position: "We certainly don't want a war between TR & Greece, but if it came to that, Turkey is more important to us. There is no American reason why the Turks should not have one-third of Cyprus". This became US official policy & remains that.
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The first handbook on Modern
#Azerbaijan
(written in Armenian) is now published co-authored by me and
@elbakyanedgar
. It briefly covers history, economy, politics and military of the State of Azerbaijan.
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Than anti-Russian stand of Pashinyan's gov will be strengthened with a clear aim to take Russian military base out of Armenia. For this current anti-Russian sentiments among population will be further constructed. 4/7
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Straight after the new capitulation signed a document on establishing relations between ARM & TR will be signed establishing diplomatic relations & opening borders with a corridor for TR & AZ through ARM Syunik. ARM's national economy will be dumped by the TR's economy. 3/7
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As one said this is Zoom in the times of Ottoman Empire.
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I think we should remember here Sevak Balıkçı as well, who was killed in Turkish Army in 2011 on the day of Armenian Genocide - April 24.
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Sunset in Tehran.
The end of a fruitful & interesting meetings and discussions with Iranian friends and colleagues.
Armenia-Iran friendship continues.
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Today the official 2-days visit of
#Jordan
's
@KingAbdullahII
to
#Armenia
is taking place by the initiative of Armenia's President
#ArmenSarkissian
. An important step for the Armenia's new MiddleEastern policy.
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2/6
Turkey's
@khasedutr
recently published "Turkey Trends 2021" survey results. For the majority of TR's citizens (60,9%) Armenia is a threat. This number is rising every year. Armenia is in the "1st position" leaving Israel, USA, Iraq, Cyprus, Russia, Iran & other behind.
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In case of no surprising development in the upcoming weeks a formal document will be signed between ARM & AZ, which will be the base for Peace treaty or the treaty itself. It will leave Artsakh to Azerbaijan with some ceremonial "guarantees" for Artsakh Armenians. 2/7
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Then Kissinger described the Turkish strategy:
"The Turkish tactics are right - grab what they want and then negotiate on the basis of possession".
This sounds familiar today, doesn't it?
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In case Russia is out Armenia will be solely dependent on Turkey's will both in terms of foreign & local politics with no possibility to resist. Current demands by TR & AZ to ARM not to have an army will become imperative. 5/7
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5/8 PM Pashinyan in 2020 repeatedly declared that “A 100 years have passed & Turkey has returned to the South Caucasus, in order to continue the Armenian genocide here.” But already in March, 2021 he started to suggest "peace agenda" questioning the enmity between AM & TR.
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Meeting between TR & ARM MFAs just started in Antalya, Turkey. Judging by the smiles on the faces intensive shelling in Artsakh by AZ is not a big deal.
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#Azerbaijan
|i attack on peacefull people of
#NagornoKarabakh
continous. Targets of Az. shelling are apartments, schools, hospitals & other civil buildings.Neither
#Karabakh
, nor
#Armenia
has any reason to start a war which Karabakh won back in 1990s.This is AzerbaijaniAggression.
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6/6 Survey was conducted in October-November, 2021. It clearly shows that there is no "Peace agenda" in Turkey either. Moreover, it shows continuous rise of anti-Armenian rhetoric in Turkey.
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First passangers. The head of the Institute of history of the National academy of science of Armenia A. Melkonyan gives an interview.
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Just to remind that 1.5 years ago ARM's PM said literally that: “Turkey has returned to the South Caucasus to continue the Armenian genocide". Now the same ARM government after capitulation smiles and greets Turkey and ready to fulfill all Turkish preconditions.
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The symbolism of this photo is very descriptive: on the table you see the vase that animals on both sides pull toward themselves.
Meeting between Prime Minister of
#Armenia
Nikol Pashinyan (
@NikolPashinyan
) and President of
#Azerbaijan
Ilham Aliyev (
@presidentaz
) commenced in
#Vienna
, upon the initiative of
#OSCE
Minsk Group Co-Chair countries.
#NagornoKarabakh
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Some examples:
- Turkish “Karabagh” instead of Azerbaijani “Qarabagh” (pronounced with [g])
- Hankendi (with [h]) instead of Azerbaijani Xankendi (with [kh]),
- Turkish “istiyorum” instead of Azerbaijani “istəyirəm”.
And other examples.
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There are more than 3000 Armenians in Qamishli. Armenian diplomatic mission in Syria works hard to provide required support to these families.
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7/8 Armenia says that there are no preconditions while there is no clear stand on what are the conditions and aims of the normalization process. Compared to 2009 there are no public discussions in Armenia and with Diaspora on the details and perspectives by the gov.
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It was a pleasure to be hosted and appreciated by the wonderful Armenian community in Los Angeles, CA.
What a pleasure it is to hear two of the brightest minds of our generation.
@elbakyanedgar
@GVaruzhan
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Azerbaijani anti-Armenian rhetoric is also present in Turkey.
My new report w/ objective evidence confirms existence of
#Azerbaijani
continuous state-sponsored policy of
#hatred
& animosity towards
#Armenians
: the real source of
#humanrights
violations, incl.
#warcrimes
. This policy has 2 pillars: ethnic & religious.
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6/8 Meanwhile TR repeatedly declares: "AM should take lesson from the past and agree to Turkey's suggestion of peace co-existence". In fact TR puts several preconditions for talks, out of which total abandoning of NK issue by AM and providing the "Turkish corridor" are central.
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4/6 Only 14,4% of Turkey's citizens support the normalization of relations with Armenia, while 66,2% are against.
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ARM FM A. Mirzoyan seems happy while talking with TR’s envoy S. Kılıç. No comments as at the very moment of this talk AZ with support of TR left Artsakh without gas & electricity. An age of peace, indeed.
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3/7 Only 5% think that Armenia needs to improve relations with Turkey for its own development. Development of Iran-Armenia relations are important for 29% of population.
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3/6
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is in the 1st place as friend/ally. Surprisingly Uzbekistan left behind Pakistan.
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4/8 Armenia's current leadership started to talk about the "Era of Peace" in the region after the defeat, though this discourse is absolutely contradictory to the narrative the same government was actively using before and during the war.
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2/8 Initiated by Armenia's former President Serzh Sargsyan, 2 protocols were signed between countries but never ratified by the Turkish parliament. TR refused to start negotiations without preconditions. Also Azerbaijan strongly protested & hindered the process.
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In reality, regular flights between Istanbul & Yerevan were being implemented for many years notwithstanding the political situation between 🇦🇲 & 🇹🇷. They were canceled in February 2020 only because of Covid19 outbreak & bankruptcy of carrier Turkish Atlas Global airlines.
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3/8 Current process is clearly a result of Armenia's defeat in the 2020 44-days war launched by Azerbaijan against Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, when AZ was largely supported by Turkey with political & military assistance.
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4/4 Like many famous Armenians in post-genocide Turkey Karaca's mother & Karaca hid their Armenian origin. Very few Turks know/acknowledge that they and many others are Armenian.This thread is an example of the identity politics of Modern Turkey. Photo-Cem Karaca with her mother.
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Photo 2. Turkey's flags are being used in the blockade of the road connecting Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh to outside world.
Blockade continues for more than 12 hours.
No reaction by "democratic" West.
Turkey & Azerbaijan plans to fully destroy Armenian political factor.
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2/4 Karaca's mother was Irma Geğanuş Felekyan (1912-1992) - an Armenian opera singer and theatre actress, who was widely known by her stage name Toto Karaca. Born to a family of Iranian Armenians in Istanbul she was one the founders of modern Istanbul theatre.
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My brief explainer about the situation with Armenian town of Berdzor which Pashinyan agreed to hand over to Azerbaijan.
On June 27,Armenian PM confirmed that Berdzor and its surrounding villages would soon become under the control of Azerbaijan.
Academic and turkologist
@GVaruzhan
breaks down Berdzor’s significance and the detrimental implications this move will have.
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Interestingly, diplomatic relations between
#Armenia
and
#Kindom
of
#SaudiArabia
do not exis yet. Yesterday Saudi media probably for the first time intensively covered Armenia and particularly
#ArmenianGenocide
.
Would be great to see much more coverage on Armenia in Saudi media.
"The ongoing denial of the genocide by the government of Turkey pours salt into the wound of the moral conscience of Armenians all over the world," says academic Donald Miller on anniversary
#ArmenianGenocide
.
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Peace in the region can't be without independent and Armenian
#Artsakh
. And this message should be heard everywhere.
#ArtsakhBlockade
ANCA's Tereza Yerimyan and Yerevan State University Turkey/Azerbaijan expert Dr. Varuzhan Geghamyan (
@GVaruzhan
)
discuss U.S. regional priorities with
@RepChrisPappas
(D-NH) at the Southeast Europe & East Med conference in Washington, DC.
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Our lecture on current Armenia today in LA.
If you're in Los Angeles, here is your chance to listen to real Armenian experts. While
@elbakyanedgar
and
@GVaruzhan
don't have tiktok, they are two of the most prominent experts on Azerbaijan and Turkey in Armenia. Event details below.
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8/8 It is difficult to say whether this process will result in opening of the borders. Many things depends on local politics in Armenia as well as regional processes. As previously this is not solely an AM-TR process, but one deeply connected to the transformation of Middle East.
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Washington based prominent Institute of Turkish Studies announces about closing. Bad news for all the Turkish Studies community.
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Probably it's time to
#RecognizeArtsakh
.
With its recent attack on
#Artsakh
's civilian infrastructures
#Azerbaijan
is also trying to cause an environmental disaster.
#StopAzzerbaijaniAggression
#StopAliyev
#ArtsakhStrong
#NKpeace
#RecognizeArtsakh
#KarabakhNow
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At the official presentation of my new book - "Handbook of Modern Azerbaijan" co-authored with
@elbakyanedgar
.
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1/2 In an interview to TR's state Anadolu agency ARM FM A. Mirzoyan declared that the "population of ARM wants to normalize relations with TR" referring to the "public opinion polls, which, in his words, also reflected this popular support for rapprochement".
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It's quiet clear that
#Turkey
's new military base in
#Azerbaijan
is just a matter of time.
Turkish F-16 were found by Maxar Technologies at Azerbaijani Gabala Airbase during the last week. According to Maxar, 6 fighters were located there.
#Azerbaijan
#Turkey
#NagornoKarabakh
#Armenia
#Artsakh
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2/7 Notwithstanding Pashinyan's & his gov's efforts to make fake "Peace era" agenda dominant in public discourse vast majority of Armenia's residents think that Turkey & Azerbaijan are major securty, political & economic threats to Armenia (see the charts).
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1
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In Stepanakert from yesterday. Except for periodical alarms of sirena
#Artsakh
's capital is beautiful as always. No signs of panic, people are confident as always.
Will update you on the situation from the spot.
#StopAzerbaijaniAggression
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6/7 Pashinyan's central argument for the AM-TR talks is the opening of transport routs which "will bring economic benefits for AM". Though no study is conducted to prove this, the vast majority of AM thinks opening of routs with TR & AZ will impact negatively on AM's development.
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0
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As predicted Azerbaijan started a large-scale war against Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh this morning.
High possibility for another large-scale war on Armenia by Azerbaijan in the upcoming days.
This could be both preparation for war or a way to make Armenia's PM Pashinyan give another bunch of concessions.
"Great Game" in South Caucasus continuous with severity.
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Winning formula for Turkey’s opposition tonight.
Opposition nationalists voted for CHP instead of İYİ parti.
Opposition conservatives and Islamists voted for Yeniden Refah Partisi instead of AKP.
Kurds in big cities voted for CHP instead of DEM nominally promoted candidates.
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0
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An evidence of
#Turkey
's indirect involvement in
#Azerbaijan
's ongoing attack against peacefull
#Artsakh
/
#NagornoKarabakh
is the fact that Turkish state broadcaster
@trthaber
's correspondent started live stream from the frontline in couple of min. after the attack.
NKPeace
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7/7 Armenian Government's one-sided propaganda aimed at making Turkey "a friend" is going to be more intense in the upcoming months.
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#Armenia
is the sole guarantee of the security not only of
#Artsakh
, but of all the indigenous people of the Greater Middle East - ethnic & religious minorities with no state.
#StopAzerbaijaniAggression
"
#Yazidis
are with the Armenian nation."
©Aziz Tamoyan
"With joint efforts we will neutralize the external threats again."
@Pres_Artsakh
, Arayik Harutyunyan
#StopAzerbaijaniAggression
#ArtsakhStrong
#NKpeace
#KarabakhNow
#StopAliyev
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My interview for the prominent Italian
@espressonline
on recent attack of Azerbaijan on Armenia and geopolitics around.
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But recently Turk. officials, media are presenting the resume of flight as an important, unprecedented good will by TR. Meanwhile, no talks about lifting the unilateral blockade of Armenia imposed by TR from 1993. This move is the only possible way of normalization & ties.
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On 13.08.1974 in their conversation amidst TR's invasion into Cyprus, Kissinger briefed Pres Ford on the situation. Kissinger first described diplomacy: "Turks see that the more the negotiations are protracted the more difficult the unilateral military move becomes".
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Probably this pipeline is going to be one of the components of the so called "Turkic multi-modal corridor" through Armenia's Syunik. It will provide opportunity to transfer resources from Central Asia to the West. A "reason" for TR's invasion into AM to "protect infrastructure".
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BREAKING: The United States Senate unanimously passes S. Res. 150 - Affirming the United States Record on the
#ArmenianGenocide
.
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With no final proof about who organized this I believe that both Azerbaijan or Armenia’s current government may be behind the attack against me.
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2/2 This is clear manipulation from the ARM gov, as all the recent surveys show that the majority of ARM population is for the relations if the Genocide issue & Artsakh independence are part of ARM's agenda. Here is a detailed thread on this:
ATTITUDE TOWARDS TURKEY IN ARMENIA (SURVEY RESULTS) | THREAD
1/7
@IRIglobal
published another public survey results conducted in Armenia in November-December 2021. While majority is still in opposition to the current Gov, let's turn to Armenia-Turkey relations.
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