Eddie
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People will call me crazy (like they did with $UPST)
I think $PLTR will be > $50 before year end. Not guaranteed but I think it’s the most likely outcome.
Small chance it’s $100 before year end
EPS/revenue growth is going to be massive while AI bubble starts
NFA
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I got denied a personal loan at $SOFI. Credit score over 800.
$SOFI doesn’t give out loans easily.
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After a lot of reflection I have decided I am going to get back into $PLTR. Since leaving $PLTR I have been hopping from company to company and unable to get peace.
I made a mistake selling $PLTR, I don’t want to make another mistake by staying out of it.
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Just want to say congrats to everyone still holding $PLTR
Happy for you all 🎉
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Palantir is projecting ~$500 million (was only ~$200 million in 2022)in FCF. $PLTR enterprise value is ~$14 billion.
Palantir is currently trading for 28x projected 2023 FCF and is growing that FCF 250% YoY.
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The reason I picked $SOFI as my next double:
I don’t have to make a Macro call
They actually have a competitive advantage with rates high, if rates stay high, they are fine
If rates fall, value goes up on all growth stocks
$SOFI holders win either way.
NFA
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$PLTR is going to be a >$100b company. I don’t get how others don’t see it.
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I just signed up for a SOFI savings and checking account.
The app is super cool! I have only ever used my credit union app historically which is… not cool lol
I was surprised to see I had points waiting from my credit score increasing! Free money!!
@SoFi
$SOFI
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Holy sh1t!!!
Tell me again about $PLTR being overvalued???
They effectively have an extra 20 beds!! This is without construction, just software
How many of the 6000 hospitals in the U.S. do you think want to save $1.5 million??
Palantir makes your assets more valuable.
$PLTR shaved 1.5 days off of patients' length of stay at Mount Sinai.
The hospital is tracking a $1.5mn annualized Return on Investment after this small test in 1 department.
Thanks to the success, Mount Sinai is going to scale Palantir across its health system:
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PSA to those who don’t know-
$SNOW and $PLTR don’t compete.
$SNOW is a place to store data.
$PLTR foundry can analyze all data no matter where it is stored. Excel, radars, Salesforce, Azure, $SNOW
$PLTR can analyze it all, together, and provide insights. Connective tissue.
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$SOFI revenue likely to drastically accelerate in Q4 2023 but this isn’t what is most bullish IMO.
What is most bullish, IMO, is new young professionals getting their student loans/refinancing their student loans with $SOFI and then setting up bank accounts.
>2 year thesis.
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The U.K. has 67 million people. Palantir is about to win a 7 year $580 million deal, or ~$83 million/year.
The U.K. government is going to pay $PLTR ~$1.24 per citizen/year.
Do you think the value provided is more than $1.24/person/year?
I do.
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$PLTR
“We just launched an experimental feature that leverages OpenAI’s GPT-3 to turn natural human language into pipeline logic. [ Ascent ] is like find me all the hospitals that have limited ICU bed availability in the next 3 weeks is transformed into a pipeline in seconds”
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Palantir landed 113 new commercial customers in 2022. New commercial customers paid Palantir $96.8 million.
Each new Palantir commercial customer, on average, paid Palantir 856.6k for the year.
That’s the baseline, how will they grow over time? They historically triple in Yr2
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Some clips I put together of Alex Karp at earnings stating they will take the whole market in this once in a generation opportunity
$PLTR
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$PLTR 10K
“One U.S. military department spent more than $1 billion building an enterprise resource planning system from scratch. The system was never delivered, and the project was terminated.”
You can spend >1B and fail, or pay Palantir 20m-50m/year. Sounds like a hard choice.
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One of the main reasons I bought back into $PLTR was this snippet from Q3 earnings
What Karp is saying:
1) cost/customer acquired is going way down due to pilots being much shorter
2) 12x the speed of 2022 pilots trialed
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“Anyone that has a monopoly will pretend that they’re in incredible competition”.
Peter Thiel, Zero to One
$PLTR
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The $SOFI thesis is really easy (it doesn’t have to be hard).
Noto says they want to be a top ten bank in ~ 5 years with >20 million members
$TFC is a top ten bank
$TFC has 15 million clients
$TFC market cap $40 billion
$SOFI has 5.7 million clients
$SOFI MC $5 billion
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I am falling in love with the Palantir story now. This is weird. I am normally a numbers guy.
The value this company is creating and not yet collecting revenue on is immense.
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“In Q1 we also closed our first $1 million deal for Apollo with a major tech company”
This is huge
$PLTR
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Let’s spell it out:
$PLTR has 330 commercial customers generating $251m or $760k/quarter/customer
Palantir was doing bootcamps with >70 orgs in Nov.
assume 70/month steady state for 2024 or 840/year
Assume 40% close or 336x$500k/Q= $168m
168m = 30% growth from AIP only
1/2
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$PLTR is a behemoth in the making. There are definitely other tempting opportunities but I am doing my best to stay focused.
I tend to be early but rarely wrong. I tend to lose focus and move on shortly before big moves upward.
Not this time.
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Holy crap, maybe others knew this, I didn’t.
90% of $SOFI $2.7 billion deposits (in Q1) is from direct deposit.
That means ~$2.43 billion of increased deposits is (basically) guaranteed.
Then layer on new customers in Q2 = likely $2.9 billion-$3.2 billion new deposits.
Wow 🤯
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We are 4 months from “let’s check back in a year” and 16 months from “let’s check back in two”
Palantir was less than $9 at the time of this interview
$PLTR
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“Fed-start, which builds on our Apollo offering, is going to enable software companies in the U.S. to actually get fed-ramped and IL-6 certification literally over night.”
-Shyam Sankar
Holy sh!t!! $PLTR is about to be the App store for U.S. software companies working with gov
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Might take some heat but I want to be honest. $PLTR Q1 2023 earnings were a 7/10 IMO.
Pro’s:
-Huge Revenue beat
-Guidance lifted
-“Going to take the whole market”
-traction on Apollo
Con’s:
-Huge rev beat due to (one time)unexpectedly high SPAC revenue
-Customers grew only 24
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@galaxy_orion
@JulianKlymochko
Agreed. Frying foods in engine oil is “NOT healthy”. Though I do wonder about it being the most desirable cooking method?? 🧐
😂 😂
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2024 and 2025 are going to be crazy for $PLTR
The Aquire, Expand, Scale business model leads to companies paying very little then scale within 2 years.
What this means-
Palantir’s (commercial) growth is determined 2 years ahead of time and is dependent on customer growth.
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For those that don’t know, $PLTR did 70 bootcamps in November which was said to be more pilots than were done in all of 2022.
Palantir just did 40 bootcamps in a *SINGLE DAY*!!!! More than half of the number of pilots done in 2022!!
$PLTR
@PalantirTech
employee: What a way to wrap 2023 with Palantir Prix 🏁
40+ AIP Bootcamps in ONE DAY. 15 customers demoing in-production workflows LIVE. 2 Palantirians racing from O to use case in 8 minutes onstage.
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Just want to remind everyone, the biggest $SOFI bear case has been their loan book value being “too high”.
What happens when the 2 year treasury falls? Loans become more valuable. Selling loans is going to be easier as rates fall.
The bear case is getting weaker.
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Very weird day, $PLTR showing relative strength to the rest of the market. Haven’t seen this in quite some time.
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The value of palantir is not the sale of Foundry, the platform. The value of Palantir is all of the exchange that will take place ON TOP of Foundry.
The same way Apple used to “sell phones” Palantir currently sells the “platform”
The “platform” will be a marketplace for AI.
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$PLTR in the UK NHS-
Started with a 1$ deal during covid (crisis in 2020)
Then $1m deal
Then $23m 2 year deal
Then $11.5m 6month deal
Competing now (3 yrs later) for 360m deal
$PLTR in Ukraine-
2022 (crisis) - free
Where will it be in 2025?
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What is $SOFI worth (IMO) when:
Student loans resume: $8-$9
Regional banking crisis ends and student loans resume: $12-$13
Regional banking crisis ends, student loans resume and multiples increase with fed easing: $15-$16
Just my opinions, I am wrong a lot, NFA
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Palantir is going to get paid.
This is literally the App Store for government contracts
In the App Store, companies must pay Apple for access to iPhone owners.
Want a government contract that requires IL-6 or 5 and your not Microsoft, Amazon or Palantir?
Pay Palantir a toll.
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Getting some healthy pushback, let me explain:
Over the last 4 quarters $PLTR went from -$0.18 TTM EPS to $0.07 ($0.25 change), with revenue growth of < 20%
AIP tailwind coming, assume $0.25 EPS change to $0.32 TTM
Currently trades at a PE of 244
Assume 200 PE on $0.32 = $64
People will call me crazy (like they did with $UPST)
I think $PLTR will be > $50 before year end. Not guaranteed but I think it’s the most likely outcome.
Small chance it’s $100 before year end
EPS/revenue growth is going to be massive while AI bubble starts
NFA
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I couldn’t help myself. Bought more $PLTR lol
So my position is officially full. I won’t be doing any more buying unless it’s ~$6.
Back to buying index funds
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This graphic shows why the big banks cannot afford to compete with $SOFI on an APY basis.
The blue line is TTM Net Income (in Billions)
The red line is what would happen to their net income if each bank increased their cost of deposits by just 1% *AND* you pull out dividends.
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$PLTR
“The demand from customers for our platforms has in recent months gained momentum, in significant part because of the accelerating embrace of Artificial Intelligence by companies across sectors and industries.
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I think Noto is a genius.
If you want your company to command a premium multiple, how do you do it? You get tech growth.
What did Noto and team do?
Step 1) maximize “easy” (lending) revenue
Step 2) ramp tech growth
Step 3) get a tech multiple on your revenue
$25 inbound
$SOFI
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I knew I had seen this before
$PLTR cannot sell their product to $BA due to their agreement with Airbus.
Sorry I couldn’t make the text bigger
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Let’s quickly compare customer growth
$SNOW grew customers 31% YoY
$PLTR grew customers 55% YoY if you include the government side, 77% if you only count commercial customer growth
If we assume customer growth is the leading indicator for revenue, who is likely to grow faster?
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$PLTR is a quality growth company. We can argue all day about the stock but the company is quality.
“Whether we're talking about stocks or socks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.”
Warren Buffet
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$PLTR Alex Karp interview
Holy crap. This is really big news. Either Alex Karp believes commercial revenue growth is likely to be paltry (<25%) over the next 5 years,
Or,
both government and commercial revenue growth is about to go gangbusters (>35%) over the next 5 years!
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$PLTR paid $565 million in SBC 2022.
Palantir’s revenue was $1,906 million. Roughly 30% of revenue was paid out in SBC in 2022.
$PLTR paid $129 million in SBC Q4 2022, annualized would be $516 million (will likely be lower 2023 in reality)
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$PLTR
Remade this chart by request!
This chart now shows revenue (TTM) per customer excluding top 20 Vs. Customer Count (TTM.) As you can see, as customer count increases, average contract value decreases. When rate of revenue decrease slows, and customer count 📈,revenue will🚀
I believe this to be one of the most important charts I have made on $PLTR. This is the average revenue per customer on a TTM basis when you exclude to top 20 customers (with a trend line.) When this graph slows the pace it is going down and they keep growing customers-Revenue 🚀
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I sold my entire $PLTR position.
Still very bullish on the company but the goal was always FI and I was able to get it (and then some) by switching my capital to $SLG.
I could potentially see myself getting back in if the conditions are right but for now, I’m gunna celebrate.
$PLTR reduced from ~80% to ~50% as shared in my last chat with
@vinceisbullish
.
FOMO thanks but no thanks.
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Use whatever metrics you want
Palantir is “expensive” based on TTM data
I think $PLTR will prove cheap base on price action this year. Metrics will still look expensive
Will touch >$50 before YE IMO
Bookmark it, no one agrees
NFA
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What do you think “take the whole market” means?
Does it mean $24 share price?
I don’t think so.
$PLTR
My position is that $PLTR is overvalued today but will look very undervalued (at $16) 12 months from now.
Some clips I put together of Alex Karp at earnings stating they will take the whole market in this once in a generation opportunity
$PLTR
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My bull case for $PLTR summed up in one incredibly important graphic.
As foundry ($PLTR’s AWS) becomes a larger percentage of revenue, CAGR for the whole company will continue to accelerate. Hopefully in 2023 total US commercial will make up >30% of total revenue then >50% in 24
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$PLTR commercial strategy-
1) break into an industry with 1-2 large partners (BP, Airbus.)
2) make your partners monopolies or “super’s”
3) Word gets out in selected industry
4) competitors start failing/desiring foundry
5) sell foundry to entire industry
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Joe Manchin is now asking Palantir to help congress write AI legislation
Credit to
@TheKameroon
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$PLTR works with the US and her allies. Am I the only one thinking $PLTR’s TAM just expanded?
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Anyone else notice how $SOFI financial services losses are going down fast then revenue is going up?
Meaning revenue is going up (fast) and at the same time costs are going down.
Crazy
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People are gunna think I’m nuts but I honestly believe $PLTR told us the coast was clear.
I’ll be more observant of macro clues from Palantir in the future.
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If $PLTR hits expected revenue of 506 Million tomorrow, TTM revenue will be $1966m.
We should break $2 Billion TTM revenue in Q2 IMO
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What I like about being a $SOFI investor:
I don’t *have* to be right about the macro for $SOFI to perform well. $SOFI has advantages with high rates *and* advantages with low rates. The diversification makes the business appealing.
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$PLTR will easily beat 2023 revenue projections of~$2.2B🧵
-$1,906M revenue in 2022
-Average revenue for top 20 customers grew 13% in 2022, smaller customers should grow faster, so the average should be higher. Let’s assume 20% revenue growth of all current customers = $2,287M
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Alright, I didn’t want to announce anything until it was official (because I didn’t follow through last time)
I officially own more $PLTR shares than I ever have. I no longer own a position in $SOFI, still have a small position in $UPST
I plan to hold $PLTR at least until ~ $28
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“In the US, we only have 15% of the top 1,000 companies buying our product, which means we have a lot of room for growth. And last and not least, arguably most importantly, in the US, all parts of the enterprise buy our product.”
Alex Karp, CEO
$PLTR
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Most important part of the recent interview done by Alex Karp IMO.
They are not moving the goal post. Alex Karp is literally saying they plan on delivering over the next 12-24 months.
If the bears were right, he would be saying “let’s see what happens in 3-5 years”
$PLTR
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52% of $PLTR 2022 revenue came from their top 20 customers. Insane.
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Working on my first YT video covering Palantir- I am going to need a lot of support from you all!
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$SOFI only has 9 more earnings releases before the executive teams PSU’s expire.
30% EBITDA margins ✅
20% net income margins ❌
30% Return on equity ❌
Will $SOFI hit their goals? How will the stock react if they do?
Is $25 coming? $35? $45?
Time is ticking.
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Palantir is positioned so well.
What happens if no AI regulation comes to pass? Chaos. Who will benefit (get paid) during times of Chaos? Palantir.
What happens if AI regulation does get passed? Less competition.
$PLTR
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Confession time:
I get much more anxious when my stocks are moving up. I feel like I need to “do something”.
When they are down or flat, I am really comfortable.
Weird, I would expect it to be the other way.
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In 2021 $PLTR grew commercial customers 200%. In 2022 Palantir grew commercial customers 77%.
The question is, how long can customers grow more than 50% while commercial revenue grows less then 30%?
They must converge at some point.
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$PLTR wants 5% of the DOD budget to go towards software/AI. Let’s pretend this happens 5 years from now. Let’s also pretend Palantir captures 20% (1% of DOD budget) of the DOD software/AI spend.
Proposed 2024 DOD budget by Biden: $842 Billion. 1%= $8.4 Billion. Holy crap.
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Snowflake’s $SNOW latest quarterly revenue was 497m.
Palantir’s $PLTR US commercial revenue is growing 120% YOY
TTM $PLTR US commercial rev of 289m.
If you assign $SNOW P/S ratio of 44 on $PLTR US commercial rev = 12.7 billion. Add back in their 2.5B cash and you get
1/2
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Update re my holdings for transparency
$PLTR: No position
$UPST: No position
$SLG: No position
I have said it numerous times, I made a mistake selling $PLTR.
Both $UPST and $SLG, while I believe in them, are too high risk for me to be concentrated like I have been with $PLTR
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$PLTR
Palantir is going to change the world. The US government would not have given $PLTR IL-6 if they didn’t have the tech that the US government plans to use. $PLTR is a 16 billion dollar company in that same ranks as trillion $ companies.
$SNOW has nothing on $PLTR
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Can Palantir $PLTR triple clients in a couple of years as a result of AIP boot camps?
That’s the bull thesis. Simple.
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Pretty big news for $PLTR. S&P 500 inclusion causes increased momentum. When Palantir joins the index, Every time the market cap increases, the index must buy more (on predetermined dates). This works when companies grow or shrink.
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My base case for $PLTR- revenue ~doubles from 2023 to 2025 to between $4-4.5 billion
Price to sales ratio 10-15
= 40 billion MC -67.5 billion MC
Or ~$16-~$28/share assuming 2.4 billion shares
If Palantir does hit 4-4.5b revenue in 2025, they likely would command a higher P/S
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I don’t see why $PYPL is so popular right now. I keep seeing people say it is *extremely* cheap. What valuation methods are being used?
EPS is projected to grow 14% from 2023 to 2024, current PE of ~ 17
I genuinely don’t get it, what am I missing?
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Listened to $PLTR weekly. I have a lot of thoughts re the “Palantir sales sucks” argument.
The truth is, IMO, if companies don’t fall in line and buy the product, they will be outcompeted.
Companies will flock to Palantir.
Also, Palantir grew commercial customers 77% in 2022
$PLTR commercial strategy-
1) break into an industry with 1-2 large partners (BP, Airbus.)
2) make your partners monopolies or “super’s”
3) Word gets out in selected industry
4) competitors start failing/desiring foundry
5) sell foundry to entire industry
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$PLTR
Just my opinion-
The truth is it is too late. The competition cannot ramp up quickly enough to beat Palantir. They would have to build a product, then grow quickly enough to take market share.
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$PLTR
Why this is important?
Example
Let’s say you are the CEO of NIKE, and you want to introduce AI.
Do you want the store clerk to be able to ask the AI about clock in habits of the administrative team? Do you want the clerk to be able to use the AI?
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$SOFI weekly kept saying the big banks were gunna get eaten up. I was skeptical. Turns out we are getting the first signs here.
Many of the larger banks are losing deposits as of late, meanwhile $SOFI is rapidly growing deposits.
Happy to be a shareholder 😃
Fintechs are winning and $SOFI is listed in the article among as a winner who is gaining the most market share. People who use a digital bank as their primary bank have more than tripled since 2020. SoFi is a secular grower for the next decade.
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$NOW trades at a P/S 13
YoY quarterly growth 20%
$PLTR P/S 9
YoY quarterly growth 17.5%
Does 2.5% less growth warrant a 30% lower P/S ratio?
I don’t think so.
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I believe this to be one of the most important charts I have made on $PLTR. This is the average revenue per customer on a TTM basis when you exclude to top 20 customers (with a trend line.) When this graph slows the pace it is going down and they keep growing customers-Revenue 🚀
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$PLTR
For those wondering, I am happy with my $PLTR position. I don’t really want to add anymore but I will under $6.50.
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So incredibly bullish on Palantir. AI scares the sh*t out of me.
The amount of damage it could cause. You think Indian scammers are bad now, just wait. Banks toppled. Fuel Pipelines frozen. Planes crashing.
Who could possibly protect us? How valuable is that protection?
$PLTR
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Sold 40 $PLTR puts $8 strike expiring 5/12/23. I would love for this to execute.
The $PLTR bull story has gotten much stronger in the last month IMO.
Most important part of the recent interview done by Alex Karp IMO.
They are not moving the goal post. Alex Karp is literally saying they plan on delivering over the next 12-24 months.
If the bears were right, he would be saying “let’s see what happens in 3-5 years”
$PLTR
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Quick back of the napkin $SOFI math
Let’s project 2023 revenue at $2,050 million
$SOFI states profitability occurs in Q4 2023
Assume 30% revenue growth in 2024= $2,665 million
Assume management drops 30% of incremental new revenue to the bottom line = $184 million 2024 profit
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Has anyone else noticed Q4 is going to be a much easier comp then Q3 was?
Q3 YoY growth was 27%
If you assume management hits $585M Q4 revenue (upper side of guidance), $SOFI YoY growth is going to accelerate to 32%
1/2 👇
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Reading through $SOFI Q2 transcript. This answer from Noto really sticks out to me.
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I believe $PLTR will hit >$2.3B revenue in 2023.
I’m going to assume $2.3B for this tweet
In order for $PLTR to hit $4.5B in 2025, they would need to grow revenue 40% in both 2024 and 2025
If Palantir is growing 40% in 2025 with ~$4B TTM revenue, MC should be > $70B IMO
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