Dad, husband, investor. Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of nuclear power/uranium focused hedge fund
@sachemcove
. Tweets/retweets not investment advice.
@AHUGUranium
Instead of tweeting about it, how about you respond to my email request and come on my podcast and discuss it. If you want a platform to discuss, a guy who runs a uranium/nuclear power hedge fund and hosts a podcast discussing it is a good place to share your views. Just sayin!
It’s 4th grade math regardless of what it is when it comes to supply /demand, even for Christmas Christmas trees, whose supply takes years to come online. Hmmm. Sounds like Uranium. When supply is low, and demand is up, you going to pay more.
#uranium
@realDonaldTrump
Section 232 - Uranium. We await your decision regarding the recently concluded Department of Commerce’s investigation into the effect on U.S national security from state-subsidized uranium imports from producers in Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
#uranium
I’ll be speaking and doing a deep dive on uranium at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference on January 20th. Talking uranium in a great city and the Canucks are playing a home game. Doesn’t get much better than that.
@rhsacks
The U mkt is opaque and disjointed. not saying you should divorce yourself from the Charts. I’m telling you that’s what i do- I live in the nuclear fuel cycle on a day to day basis and I think the market is wrong. That’s price action. I’m focused on fundamentals. Period!
@quakes99
@MICKYNewsOz
I’m always asked if U cycle works when it will be time to sell If cycle works & we start seeing conferences with Lamborghini’s and Ferrari’s parked out front (like bitcoin a yr ago) & the voices become t-shirt , skinny jean wearing folks explaining why U is going to $300 - bail
Gosh, if Twitter were around back then the German gov’t could have just asked Uranatwit and we’d have all saved them a few trillion by telling them to not abandon nuclear and your renewables saving the day dream was just that - a dream
@bull_ur
@tsizzle84
We are a subscriber of theirs. I’ll take the high road and say after thousands of hours reviewing their work, we are very confident with our different view. They had similar complacency before conversion went up 4x. Nice guys though.
@AngusMacD19
@FissionMan1
@JohnPolomny
@timothychilleri
I say something when I have something to say. We have more conviction today than at any time since we have been investing in uranium. We are very busy doing conference prep and I’m not in the business of hand holding.
@AHUGUranium
My offer still stands, you’re welcome to come on my podcast. I run a uranium fund, the podcast reaches thousands of listeners per week(many uranium investors). A platform to make your case to many more than 135 twitter followers.
Enjoyed speaking with leading nuclear power advocate, author and founder of Environmental Progress, Michael Shellenberger
@ShellenbergerMD
- The Mike Alkin Show: Talking Stocks Over a Beer: Nuclear power… truth be told (Ep. 48)
@AngusMacD19
@quakes99
@uraniuminsider
@timothychilleri
1) I think it’s an uninformed view that indicates to us this person spends no time in the fuel cycle. I will be appearing on
@kevinmuir
podcast in a couple of weeks. I will be sharing our uranium view. The one I shared with our investors on our recent year end review call.
@quakes99
@GlobalFire123
Hi John,
@timothychilleri
and I were there for 2 days. We didn’t attend session as we know the issues being discussed. We met with industry people in the fuel cycle. Very productive and thesis as strong as ever. Too much to tweet, I’ll share insights on
@kevinmuir
podcast soon.
@BlaiseBrignac
Hey Blaise. Been very busy with uranium. Will turn the mic on from time to time when we have something interesting to add about uranium/nuclear etc...just not a weekly thing. Supply crunch horse has left the barn, now just patiently waiting for price to catch up. And it will.
If you’re investing in Natural Resources stocks, you’ll learn a lot from listening to
@Jamie_Keech
of Resource Insider. He joined me today to talk about what he looks for when analyzing resource stocks
@philip_neate
@bp1990
@quakes99
@GlobalFire123
@timothychilleri
@kevinmuir
Unless someone can wrap their head around the fact that price lies in inefficient markets until it doesn’t, they’re wasting their time owning stocks who participate in inefficient markets because they have misaligned expectations. Asymmetrical risk/reward exists for a reason.
@GlobalFire123
Hiding in plain sight all over uranium. I spoke at nuclear energy institute conf end of Oct. Urenco and Tenex spoke too & basically said underfeeding receding. In few months since, SWU up 25% yet equities can’t get out of own way. Reinforces how little people know about this mkt
@quakes99
@a_martinoro
No interest John. I’m in the business of exploring inefficiencies in a market and deciding if price is lying or telling the truth. If one thinks price is always telling the truth then they believe every market is efficient. Uranium is the most inefficient market I’ve ever seen.
@a_martinoro
@quakes99
It’s a bull shit headline on demand as the WNA came out today and said it’s the first time in 8 years they’ve raised demand expectations amid a very positive demand scenario.
@AngusMacD19
@quakes99
@uraniuminsider
@timothychilleri
7) here’s a suggestion. For all time people spend on twitter prognosticating, spend time modeling every source of demand, supply, speak to the fuel cycle and compare to “consensus” you’ll save thumb ache from typing and sleep like a baby knowing the fundamentals.
@quakes99
@Dknowzappare
@deepvalueco
They want certainty of where can buy. They don’t care what they pay despite rhetoric. perfectly inelastic demand curve. Uncovered demand exists , is growing,supply is choked, and have no choice but to buy. It’s now about what miners will sell it for not what utes willing to pay.
“What began as a business transaction has become a geo-strategic move for Putin, who sees a long game in gaining a stronger foothold over global energy supplies” oil and gas first, would be unwise to not view
#uranium
also part of that strategy.
@AlexMiningGuy
@quakes99
@UraniumSir
@omnipotent32
I’m going to enjoy watching the physical traders who are short and screw around marking their books at month end get run over when they need to cover on the turn and their isn’t enough for them to buy - they’ve had it way too easy the last several years -
@Danstringer74
@quakes99
Laughable . I could not care any less what some investment bank thinks. I’ve made a living for a quarter of a century taking the other side of some really misinformed analysts.
If you’re not following Ed McCabe,
@eddiemac3356
, you should. He’s Wicked Smart. He and I talk Tesla for an hour and twenty minutes. He shares great insights.
@arsenal10007
@AngusMacD19
@quakes99
@uraniuminsider
@timothychilleri
Massive contracting is 250M +lbs, Not 85M . So that’s a joke. Also, 25m lbs of that was with at least a $4 handle - and are producers turning away the mid $40’s right now for LT deals. Funny how that was left out. I suggest they do some field work.
@Irvzilla2019
@philip_neate
@TorontoStar
doesn’t matter what I think. It matters there is a decision so the U world has certainty as to the outcome and can begin the healthy process of price discovery driven by the the current and future supply/demand situation. That’s what makes markets.
@Mikontwiitti
@SNS5500
@a_martinoro
@DenisonMinesCo
deeply cyclical business w/booms and busts and investors overshoot both ways. What makes this cycle v interesting in my view is # of reactors hitting the grid are >2x last cycle, bigger, & supply getting smoked. And I don’t think those deficits in anyway appreciated - yet
@uraniuminsider
@GlobalFire123
@quakes99
@brandon_munro
It’s exactly why Uranium opportunity exists. One references dated 2017 WNA data. WNA doesn’t forecast costs of projects so those primary lbs are in #’s shown and it’s immensely lower now due to cuts.
@brandon_munro
appears to reference BMO who’ve done good S/D work.
@quakes99
@uraniumfilledb1
Right on JQ- #’s the industry relies on are absurd- one org doesn’t account for miners costs when assessing supply and one doesn’t have balls to make estimates steeped in reality just so they can hover around where mkt is at any given time & day “as we said” yeah ok. Ridiculous
@Fahy_Co
@ByronArant
LOL. I’m poor at calendar management and accidentally double booked . Better use of time to speak to 150 fuel buyers pointing out why they’re gonna be paying a lot higher U prices whether they want to or not. I won’t be popular at the evenings cocktail event- won’t be a first
@quakes99
@GlobalFire123
@timothychilleri
@kevinmuir
If one isn’t comfortable w/ inefficient nature of the U mkt and take their cues from the daily price and don’t appreciate fundys not reflected in price - until it is- then prob not sector to deploy capital. If one does appreciate those things, then no better place in my view
@rjgeringer
@quakes99
I guess it’s a coincidence that “consensus” increased demand forecast 8M lbs per year (+4%) for 2019-2030 last week mainly by increasing tail assumptions that had been lowered to unsustainable levels in Jan 18 for that same period. Whatever the rationale, demand went up on that
@GlobalFire123
YesMalcolm.The other fallacy is people focus on $40 as the magical # where they think production restarts. That’s misguided. Most of the miners total costs much higher than glossy investor decks show - those are the “we gotta raise capital to stay afloat” costs. Not total costs
@ajobst
@quakes99
@arsenal10007
doesn’t matter, that horse already left the barn. The projects required to meet future demand needs to be north of $60. There is not enough economical supply to meet demand. The longer capital stays out of financing projects the bigger the deficit will be and higher price goes
@UraniumSir
@uraniuminsider
@ActivateBlock
I don’t focus if gets to prior highs. Utes/miners will sort out LT pricing - the key. I focus on price needed for that and risk/reward of it. I focus on risk first, the upside will take care of itself driven by fundamentals I see. Don’t need prior highs for this asymmetry.
@archeloncounsel
We pay no attention to their work other than analyze how they make the sausage. We don’t agree w/their analysis. we think much of their assumptions aren’t commercially realistic. We drive looking forward, not in the rear view mirror or under an economic rock.
@Timothy56306652
@gdawg54
@brandon_munro
@GlobalFire123
Just think - they didn’t exist during the last bull run -to those who take advanatage of the increased education and have the ability to appreciate the time arbitrage, it can be quite rewarding.
@BloodsportCap
@cleantechnica
BS in Acctg, 23 years hedge fund experience as analyst/PM. Former Sr. partner at several billion dollar hedge fund. Founded and run uranium focused SPV. Started shorting frauds in late 90’s in for -profit ed. space. ever since, hooked on sniffing out lying, conmen led companies
@Mikontwiitti
@SNS5500
@a_martinoro
@DenisonMinesCo
Higher u pricing isn’t a want- it’s a need - paradigm shift from what utilities are willing to pay to what miners are willing to sell it to them at. And then it’s choose the companies one thinks have either strategic value or can generate CF and are run by folks who have a clue
@bourrec68
@gdawg54
@quakes99
@QGornt
@BadIntel789
@timothychilleri
@GlobalFire123
Plenty of off market discussions Contracts take few months to hash out. Ruling was just last week. Those who need headline confirmation will wait, those who do their work and understand where cycle is and confident in their analysis will be positioned. Market will sort it out.
A lot of fun speaking with
@BrentBrickman
, Brent Brickman about risk management and internal audit. MAS Ep. 51: The key to good corporate risk management via
@YouTube
@timothychilleri
@aloha_jeb
By fuel cycle that means the entire front- end which includes conversion, enrichment and fabrication - uranium itself is 40ish % of that 20%, so depending on price of uranium it’s a single digit percent of the cost to operate a nuclear power plant.
@BillTho69312367
@tsizzle84
@quakes99
Yep. said it in last talk I gave and have commented here that it’s moving and people paying no attention to one of key things.
@uraniuminsider
@GlobalFire123
@quakes99
@YouTube
Differing opinions make markets. It’s healthy. We believe it to be an ultra conservative(safe) view. We don’t believe it to be where the puck is, or going. But that’s just our analysis and view.
@CathieDWood
@ARKInvest
@TashaARK
@skorusARK
I see what you did there. Give your analysts the props now with the outlandish forecast so you can hang them out to dry so when it turns out the unicorn was a pipe dream you can pass the blame. Crafty.
@rhsacks
Richard I can’t emphasize enough I don’t care short term. I appreciate you may, but that’s your thing. Not mine. Mine is measuring Risk/Reward and the monster potential upside versus much less downside. You spend your time in the fuel cycle like i do then make your own call.
@DeepYellowValue
@GlobalFire123
wanted to spend time with my wife and and kids over the holiday and give the podcast a rest for a couple of weeks......that's the important stuff. i'll be back next week with a podcast...
@AngusMacD19
@quakes99
@uraniuminsider
@timothychilleri
2) if one spends time in the fuel cycle they’d know there are examples of producers walking away from potential contracts at higher prices because they think it’s going higher, others who’ve signed higher price deals that don’t get reported due to the “best offer” nonsensical
@AngusMacD19
@quakes99
@uraniuminsider
@timothychilleri
5) the price going to new lows? Because there isn’t too much supply. It’s been a lack of utility contracting and spot buying. They’re driven by forecasts that are backward looking and now changing. The fundamentals today are the best they have been in 15 years. If one doesn’t
@Crewna
There’s around three-quarters of a trillion dollars, give or take, in nuclear projects around the world. It’s an emerging economy growth industry. Netted against the West numbers it is still a growth industry. West slowly seeing benefits of nukes and sentiment starting to shift.