Eleanor Olcott
@EleanorOlcott
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China Tech Correspondent @FT based in Beijing email: eleanor.olcott (@) https://t.co/gnV7VRHnX3 DM for alt contact
Beijing
Joined January 2015
How did Li Lu go from being one of China's most wanted criminals, exiled from his home country, to brokering business deals flanked by Chinese officials? . This weekend's FT mag cover story looks at this man's extraordinary evolution.
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Since arriving in China, meetings founders and VCs have left me with a very dim view of the current state affairs. Things are so bad. In 2018, 51,302 new startups were founded. Last year, that number was down to 1,202. It took a while for that number to sink in.
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Bloodbath for Chinese US listed stocks - column b shows peak price versus todays valuation for the likes of Didi, Tencent Music, Bilibili, New Oriental and many more
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Singaporean researchers found that individuals with three Sinovac and Sinopharm inactivated doses were nearly twice as likely to develop severe symptoms as counterparts with three mRNA jabs and 50 per cent more likely to be hospitalised.
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The economy, covid, property crisis, consumption, geopolitics are to blame, for sure. But there are fundamental shifts in the way VCs are investing that means founders almost have zero incentive to launch a new company. This ultimately will hamper China's tech innovation.
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As cases rise in Taiwan, this @jburnmurdoch chart should be printed out and stuck up on the walls where doctors are advising elderly people with underlying health conditions against having the vaccine.
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My taxi driver this evening is an electrical engineering grad. He used to work at Foxconn and Tetra Pak. He was laid off in Feb. His house price has fallen by 40%. So many stories like his. We spoke about philosophy and economics. Erudite, but not very good at driving.
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At the crux of the problem is the execution of redemption clauses, which makes founders personally responsible to buy back shares from investors if the company doesn't go public. VCs are now checking founders' bank accounts to ensure they can return money.
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Under such conditions, why would VCs make big bets on high risk companies doing pioneering research? . I travelled to Suzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen to see the impact the industry's "death spiral" is having on entrepreneurship in China.
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Failed founders are getting dragged through the courts. One VC described the industry as a "debt chasing monster". Their spouses and parents can be implicated. They can be put on travel ban lists and find it difficult to find new work. Why take the risk?.
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Excited to be joining the @FT next week as China Tech Correspondent. I'm starting in London, before joining the Asia team to cover what promises to be a period of profound change in the China tech scene. My inbox is open to any silicon, consumer tech & regulatory-related intrigue.
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This "debt mindset" as @scmallaby described it to me, is completely anathema to the spirit of VC investment, which is to take big bets and reap the rewards if it succeeds. That used to be how things worked in China. Until IPOs and M&A completely dried up.
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VCs are being probed by state LPs if they don't make a good return. “You do not want to be accused of losing the government’s money,” said one. They are chasing indebted founders just to prove to their LPs that they have tried to claw back assets. This is bad for everyone.
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This investigation with @helenwarrell has been cooking for a few months. Chinese foreign language students have been lured to work for a mysterious tech company to translate hacked documents as part of Beijing’s industrial-scale intelligence regime.
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State LPs (local govs and state-owned enterprises) are playing a more outsized role given the mass exodus of foreign investors and high net worth individuals. Under the shadow of anti-corruption, they are forcing VCs to guarantee returns, while slashing management fees.
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It's been a nearly three-year wait that took me and my expanding luggage from London to Taipei to Hong Kong. But earlier this week, I finally moved to Beijing to join the FT bureau here. My skin is already cracking from the bone-dry air, but it feels good to be here!.
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Pick up your copy of the FT weekend paper this weekend. On all good newsstands 🗞️🗞️🗞️
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I'm anecdotally hearing of a few instances of doctors in Taiwan advising elderly people with chronic health conditions against having the vaccine bc the risk of side effects. This is very worrying because it's the group most at risk of developing severe covid in this outbreak.
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What is going on with China's covid stats? 🧵. China has reported over 400,000 cases since March 1, but only two deaths. In the past week, 92 per cent of Shanghai’s confirmed cases were reported as asymptomatic. W/ Sun YU, @mroliverbarnes, @imandylin2 .
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Important Lancet study from Singapore showing a head-to-head comparison of China's Sinovac inactivated vaccine versus mRNA jabs, clearly showing the latter provides better protection against infection and severe disease.
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My latest story on Taiwan becoming a haven for reporters fleeing from China, and how the shift is viewed in Beijing @FT.Thank you for the quotes @MikeSmithAFR, who has a new exciting book out on his time China and to @jojjeols
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@wenfeixiang I find it strange that I checked these details carefully with It Juzi before and sent the chart before pub. IT Juzi has also published the same chart before in previous reports, I was merely updating it. Can you explain why you changed your position after the piece came out?.
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Scoop 🚨 with @Tabby_Kinder .Remember Luckin Coffee? Two years on from its accounting scandal in which the Chinese coffee chain fabricated more than $300m of sales, it's looking for a route to relist in the US.
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Delight to be back in Beijing for first trip to mainland since pandemic. The sun was shining on the Forbidden City.
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It's an open secret in China's AI world that high-end chips are still easy (but expensive) for blacklisted companies to get their hands on. @QianerLiu @Dimi and I dive into the multifaceted ways Chinese groups skirt Washington's export controls .
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“Discrimination of migrant workers in Taiwan is systemic, but the pandemic has made it a lot worse". @FT shining a light on how some of the island's tech companies are mistreating migrant labourers, at a time when they most need their employer's support.
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Taiwan does not have a refugee or political asylum system, making it difficult for Hong Kongers in exile to gain permanent residence/ citizenship and settle in their new home. Thank you to @lnachman32 and others for their insights @FT.
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Hainan hacking groups continued to hire translators months after the US attempted to disrupt their activities. Catch new details from our FT investigation on China’s industrial scale spying operation with @helenwarrell and @Dimi
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Gosh, the internet really is filled with some rather odd blokes.
@cantoneseguy @EleanorOlcott FT hires a lot of young gamines like @EleanorOlcott…. 10 years ago, Princeton, strawberry blonde, freckles… blanking on her name. Ohhhh… Doggy was so in luuuuurve… quote Doggy… yes quote Doggy… good god quote Doggy….
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I’ve had a few queries about the IT Juzi data. IT Juzi is China’s leading data provider on startups, tracking companies across basically every conceivable vertical that a VC would be investing in. For those that can read Chinese, the list is here.
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Deep dive into an acrimonious dispute b/w German entrepreneurs and Chinese investors that ended w/ a GOP-connected US firm swooping in to snap up the prized asset: licences for low earth orbit satellites that could change the future of connectivity.
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An FT deep dive into how Adidas lost its lustre, the result of interviews with 17 former and current senior execs at Adidas, with insights into the inner workings of the German sportswear brand. Reported with the inimitable @OlafStorbeck 🧵.
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Taiwan’s previously parched reservoirs filling up nicely with plum rain. Reservoirs in the centre of Taiwan which had been at 1% capacity at the end of May, now between 26-47% full.
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I meet many of these in this city, but not normally this self aware
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Traipsed through a jungle, mauled by mosquitos and chased by wild dogs to get to PwC’s Reimagine Campus, an institute to build “trust in leadership” in Hainan. Work on the lavish campus has halted as the PwC deals with fallout from Evergrande crisis.
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We're into the thirteenth consecutive week of protests in Hong Kong. I spoke with @BBCBusiness about the economic impact of the protests and why the territory is so crucial for the mainland's financial system.
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This doesn't mean there is no investment activity, but that selection of new startups has dramatically narrowed. As the article outlines, there are still some areas such as humanoid robots and flying taxis where there is a bit of activity, but it is a far cry from the glory days.
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Chinese commercial sand dredgers are returning to Matsu's waters after taking a break during the winter monsoon season. Earlier in the month, I went to the island group to report on the illegal activity making big money out of Taiwan's seabed. @FT .
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Great to meet so many energetic founders at HK Web3 conference today. I shared a few words about traditional media industry’s response to generative AI and why chatbots can’t replace old fashioned journalism.
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sure, this is totally normal and will catch on.
What it looks like if you make a phone call with the newly launched open Huawei Trifold phone😂
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A junior banker once said this to me at a dinner party while droning on about his incredibly boring dating life. Was surprised that he thought I was interested, let alone FT readers.
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Full circle returning to National Taiwan University to cover Jensen Huang’s Computex speech seven years after first coming here to study Mandarin. Queues for the rockstar CEO are longer than when I saw The XX perform at the same venue.
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Shot: emailing a suspected front company for comment on accusations that they're a front company .Chaser: getting a bounceback reply saying their main corporate email address doesn't exist.
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Chaotic energy submitting my thesis on Songshan airport wifi before boarding this little boy to Matsu. Taiwan friends, send me recommendations for 南竿/北竿/莒光！
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It was great to interview George Chiao for this piece, in Shein's first proper media interview. Its cheap and stylish clothes are a hit with Gen Zs. @JonathanEley and I dig into some of the ethical issues as this fashion newcomer storms onto the catwalk.
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Chinese court filings are littered with cases of VCs chasing founders. Wang Ziru raised tens of millions of rmb in 2016 for startup Zealer. But he quit in 2021 after traffic waned. He is now being sued by investors and can't fly or buy property to take vacation.
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There is an explanation for this. Funds with capital (think HongShan & Hillhouse) have largely been doing follow on rounds for existing portfolio companies or buying buying stakes in established startups like Xiaohongshu from funds that need to liquidate or want out of China.
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Meanwhile, the curiously high % of asymptomatic cases is bc Shanghai records patients as “symptomatic” after a lung scan. This means tens of thousands of people who tested positive and had cold-like symptoms are being recorded as “asymptomatic”.
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Taiwan’s population is shrinking; at a faster pace in rural areas. For schools like Dongrong in Yunlin county, that means diminishing class sizes. I joined for part of their graduating class cycling trip, an arduous 300km ride along the island’s west coast.
A primary school in Yunlin, one of Taiwan’s poorest counties, fights to stay open as Taiwan’s population shrinks. @EllieOlcott on a creative approach to education amid demographic decline and a struggle to retain teachers: .
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I reviewed Eva Dou's book House of Huawei, an authoritative account of "China's most powerful company". It explains why the US and China are fighting over the fate of a company that has done so much to bolster China’s technological ecosystem and extend its influence overseas.
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Fun evening with FT's @QianerLiu @MsHannahMurphy @Urbandirt @RobinBHarding @ElaineDMoore @jburnmurdoch celebrating 20th anniversary of Asia edition. The audience voted overwhelmingly in favour that AI is coming to steal white collar work. Beware!
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I spent the weekend in Qiushan Valley, Shandong, visiting wineries featured in a piece I wrote on the perils of investing in Chinese wine. An agricultural heartland, Shandong was home to the first commercial winery founded in the Qing Dynasty.
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“It’s difficult to say this is a deliberate cover-up. It looks more consistent with China’s narrow death certification process for infectious diseases,” said one epidemiologist. Another said it was an example of China “playing games with statistics”.
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I'll be covering Taiwan for the FT over the next couple of weeks. My inbox is open for tips and feedback, kind or otherwise. First story with @KangHexin on the central bank's suppression of the local currency.
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Important story from @rwmcmorrow and team on the punishing impact redemption clauses are having on founders. Starved of IPOs, VCs are forcing founders to buyback their shares -- leaving a trail of bankrupt entrepreneurs that will struggle to rebuild.
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Looking to appease Beijing while not offending Washington, many China funds have narrowed in on healthcare, biopharma and high-tech niches with no military application, such as warehouse robotics. My first column for @FT .
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My local wine shop has run out of champagne today with everyone stockpiling “essential” supplies ahead of Typhoon Saolo #HongKong.
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I arrived in Taipei a few days ago and have been truly amazed by how well organised the medical system is in comparison to the UK. I have my temperature scanned going into all public buildings, hand sanitiser everywhere, the gov hosts daily press conferences providing clear info.
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Two years after Luckin Coffee was found to have raised $1.9bn after fabricating earnings, it claims to have been on a tear in China. It's opened new stores, booted out the old boss, made a big hit "velvet coconut latte". Article with @Tabby_Kinder.
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🚨The FT Beijing Bureau is hiring a news assistant 🚨The role involves working with Asia reporters on stories, contacting and interviewing sources and digging into open source databases. If you are interested in applying or have any questions pls email me at eleanor.olcott@ft.com.
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Parents are adapting to Beijing's crackdown on extracurricular education by hiring private tutors masquerading as nannies, sending kids in "new concept camping" trips and enrolling them for art classes taught in English. Check out my latest for FT Wealth:
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Several Shanghai residents have also told us their relatives died after testing positive for Covid-19. Experts believe the low official toll is the result of shortcomings in the way China counts deaths.
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I've just been put under quarantine in Taipei. Had my very friendly local security officer check up on me a total of SIX times today. Never has a man been this needy!.
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ByteDance AI chip plans point to opening for Huawei if it can improve yield at fabs. BD plans to spend $12bn on AI chips in 2025, of which $5.5bn is for China. BD plans to spend 60% of $5.5bn on Huawei and Cambricon, with the former seen as primary challenger to Nvidia in China.
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This figure really stood out from this piece: an estimated 95 percent (!!) of China's large data centres run on Nvidia chips.
The remarkable story of Nvidia, its rise as an AI powerhouse, and the challenges it faces in China. Superb reporting by @eliotcxchen !
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SoftBank has sold almost all of its remaining Baba shares, trading at six-year lows, a limp (near) exit from one of the most successful tech investments ever made. @rwmcmorrow @KanaInagaki .
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This is incredibly sad. I never met Michael in person but had several phone calls with him absorbing his wisdom on China's big tech companies. He was brimming with nuanced insights and would always make me laugh with his sarcastic jibes.
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I wrote a long read on meritocracy - China's imperial era great intellectual export and how state-sanctioned fetishisation of the ideal today seeks to promote unthinking veneration of authoritarian rule.
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As for the chip smuggler that tried to sell me Nvidia chips, when finding out I'm a reporter, he inquired if I was making enough money at the newspaper and hinted I could join his chip trade. I had to politely decline his offer, but I respect the hustle.
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Departure from my regular tech coverage for a piece on Chinese wine. Despite improving in quality, the industry looks increasingly in peril. Winemakers face erratic climate, burdensome regulation, spiralling costs and fickle consumers.
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You don't have to look hard for signs of a booming blackmarket for Nvidia GPUs in China. This much was clear when I was recently offered smuggled chips by a Chinese dealer who thought I was a Russian data centre procurer (he was disappointed to find out I'm a British journo).
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Chinese hospitals tend to write down chronic illnesses such as cancer, heart disease or diabetes as the cause of death, even when people had contracted the virus.
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Wait till the end to see the extraordinary collapse of China's bitcoin mining farms, which used to dominate this profitable but volatile industry. Thanks to @samjoiner & @sdbernard for bringing @CambridgeAltFin's data alive.
New: Watch the US overtake China as the world’s largest Bitcoin mining hub just two months after Beijing’s crypto ban. Great fun working on this graphic with @sdbernard for @EllieOlcott’s story. Data from Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index.
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Remember the Chinese coffee chain that defrauded US investors $645mn in 2019? . Luckin Coffee didn't disappear. It used the money to steal market share from Starbucks in China. Now, it's plotting an expansion in Starbucks' home market. With @meyer_g6 .
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One of TikTok's top-ranked posts, when you search the hashtag Ukraine on the platform, is a video of soldiers in military fatigues saying emotional goodbyes to women. It has been watched 7.3mn times but is actually a scene from a 2017 Ukrainian film The War of Chimeras.
TikTok removed multiple accounts I flagged, after I found livestreams with misinformation, pretending to be filming in Ukraine, but not before they’d received tens of thousands of views. My piece with @EleanorOlcott and @MsHannahMurphy
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“China is in an absolute fertility disaster at the moment" . Demographers predict China's population could halve by the end of this century, from 1.4bn people to 730mn. Check out @federicacocco and my latest on China's demographic ticking time bomb.
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Steel tycoon Mr "Big Shot" Xiang Guangda with Indonesian pres Joko after signing deal for country's nickel. Read more about this Wenzhou entrepreneur who took a huge wrong-way bet that halted global nickel trading and plunged the LME into turmoil. @humenm
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In the pandemic's 3rd year, why is China still resorting to lockdowns? 130mn over 60s - more than the entire population of Japan - are under-vaccinated & at risk of developing severe symptoms or dying from the virus. Story w/ @imandylin2 @primroseriordan .
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In August, Ivy Asia apologies for a culturally insensitive advert featuring geishas pulling a rickshaw…. Seven months on, some opium smoking geishas telling us their marketing department remains resolutely tone deaf.
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Had fun trawling through Taiwan's Premier Su Tseng-chang campaign finances and political expenses for this piece with @Lin26291320, which includes a single expense for an NTD145 (£3.90) bowl of pork knuckle rice. Piece with @erinhale .
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We reported a year ago that HongShan - with its $9bn to deploy - was expanding its global footprint, looking to open offices in Europe and potentially US with a downturn in China. Their response: “We have no plan to open an office in the US or in Europe.”. Fast forward to today
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Among the inventive tactics used by Chinese millennials to bay away a nagging relative’s demands for marriage and offspring, this has to be my favourite.
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It was worth dragging my tent up Qilai Mountain to watch the sunrise over the golden peaks. Ever so slowly making my way through the 台灣百岳 . But for now, time to rest my feet.
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How an Eton-educated accountant in his 70s became owner of a fleet of oil 25 tankers that has shipped an estimated $7.2bn of Russian oil around the world. Eye-popping investigation by @thomas_m_wilson on the shadowy network facilitating Russian oil.
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Someone in my feed posted a screenshot of IT Juzi data on startup investment this year, which they said seems to contradict the collapse in new startups.
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"four doses of mRNA vaccine was associated with lower rates of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization and severe COVID-19 compared with three mRNA vaccine doses and four doses of inactivated whole-virus vaccines or a combination of vaccine types."
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Interviewing people in Beijing at the moment is trying to decipher what they're saying through the spluttering and coughing.
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Spinsters unite against Hong Kong immigration authority’s conceptual framing of unmarried people
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Chinese AI startups are trying to find a way to crack the US market, as they chase revenues to fund compute costs and justify sky-high valuations. Shanghai-based MiniMax has had the most success to date with its popular Talkie companion chatbot.
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