Edgardo Sepulveda
@E_R_Sepulveda
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Consulting economist. Telecoms, electricity, inequality and other analysis...all with data...lots and lots of data.
Toronto, Canada
Joined October 2015
🇩🇪German electricity⚡consumers paid €320 billion to help subsidize wind, solar & biomass operators. Starting in 2000, the "Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) surcharge" was included in most consumer electricity bills to finance high feed-in-tariffs (FIT) and "premium"
"Does renewable electricity hurt the poor?". In Germany, YES. Yet more researchers find that the renewable support levy (EEG) paid by rate payers and used in Germany to help finance wind & solar operators resulted in higher electricity prices and was regressive: increased energy
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1/3. Ever wondered what dispatchable vs. intermittent electricity generation looks like? #energytwitter.Inspired by @TristanKamin, I charted hourly 2021 data (8,760 points) for Ontario, Canada. Start with 2 largest sources, Nuclear (57% of mix) & Hydro (24%), scaled accordingly.
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@PeterHavercan @dougbamford @Mining_Atoms @AlScottRational @_DrFred_ For Ontario, Canada for 2021, the charts below show Nuclear and Solar and Nuclear and Wind. Based on hourly observations for 365 days.
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Good news from 🇫🇷France & for French nuclear⚡️:. 1) proposal to fiscally ring-fence France from the broader European wholesale electricity market is just another example of nations/jurisdictions recognizing the limits/deficiencies of these neoliberal constructs. 2).
Marché de l’électricité : après des mois de négociations, #EDF et l’Etat s’accordent sur un prix de vente "autour de 70 euros le mégawattheure" . ➡️
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Thx to @Mining_Atoms, my earlier Ontario, Canada (non-) vs. dispatchable radar graphs are getting a second look, including from outside Canada & USA. One recurring question is choice of scaling… for example, original graph shows nuclear and wind on different scales. A 6/6 🧵
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#MarcelBoiteux died earlier today, aged 101. So many achievements. (see his Wikipedia entry below). He also may have outlived some of the anti-nuclear terrorists (never identified) that tried to assassinate him in 1977 when he was head of EDF (the French publicly-owned
Belated happy 100th birthday (May 9) to French electricity economist Marcel Boiteux. Former Pres. @econometricsoc, developed Ramsey-Boiteux pricing for monopolies, former DG @EDFofficiel, where he championed electrification & survived assassination attempt.
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Everyone subsidizes something in energy. but what & how much?. In 🇩🇪 Germany, producer subsidies for renewables (EEG)⚡️electricity (see below) are greater than all fossil fuel🛢️(FF) subsidies. That is on a per unit basis and includes "implicit" FF subsidies from
🇩🇪German electricity⚡consumers paid €320 billion to help subsidize wind, solar & biomass operators. Starting in 2000, the "Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) surcharge" was included in most consumer electricity bills to finance high feed-in-tariffs (FIT) and "premium"
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In just one month in early 2022 more than 10,000 Canadians signed a Parliamentary petition initiated by @Dr_Keefer and sponsored by @ctochor to have the 🇨🇦 Green Bond Framework revised to include #nuclearenergy and today that revision was announced!. Congrats!
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Nuclear, you know, like the reactors at Indian Point 3 (IP3) and FitzPatrick, both of which you @NYPAenergy owned, and then decided to privatize by selling them to Entergy for a cool $1 billion in 2000.
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Wow, that was fast @GrantChalmers! From just-released (ex BP) Statistical Review, one of the better ways to present a standarized comparison of sustained increase in clean electricity generation by technology!. Hydro & nuclear make up 16 of the top 20 spots; wind and in.
Largest 10-Year deployments of electricity generation via Statistical Review of World Energy 2023. More solar entries, Australia moves past half way. Can Finland, Norway and Sweden maintain the wind momentum?.#electricity #energy #rstats #ggplot2.h/t @EnergyInstitute
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So given Ontario's🇨🇦 generation⚡️mix (2nd figure), what is the average cost/price (RPP) faced by consumers (1st figure)?. Hydro & nuclear are low-cost, always below average cost; gas at or above average; solar, biofuel & wind are high-cost, always above average cost. Ontario
Ontario, Canada🇨🇦 as a clean-electricity⚡️case study highlighting differences between ACTUAL PRICES to CONSUMERS (RPP) versus the oft-cited MODELLED levelized COST of energy (LCOE) to PRODUCERS based on Lazard financial modelling. Actual vs. Modelled.Price vs. Cost.Consumer vs.
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Spotted one of these @DavidSuzukiFDN (DSF)-funded billboards in Toronto. While DSF and its founder have made very significant contributions to environmental awareness in Canada, this “100% renewables by 2035” electricity policy proposal for Ontario is irresponsible and should be
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Nuclear energy is a "no regrets" good option - even if humanity does NOT take climate change seriously, or we cannot agree on climate change, nuclear energy still makes sense.
Si l'humanité prenait le changement climatique au sérieux, elle s'accorderait à conduire un programme mondial de nucléarisation, en commençant par les pays stables en déficit d'infrastructures électriques et bas carbone. Tout le reste n'est que littérature et gaspillages.
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Important new article providing assessment of US experience with deregulated electricity markets by current FERC Commissioner @ChristieFERC. Through a series of Orders starting in late 1970s FERC enabled the introduction of competition, the creation of (inter-state) regional
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1st time I see "baseload" nuclear vs "variable" wind & solar generation presented this way. I make/like electricity graphs & I find this stunning: hourly generation over 28 days (weeks 47 to 50 of 2021) in France. Sharing with other e-graphists: @GrantChalmers @lowcarbonpower.
Nombreuses sont les critiques sur la soi-disant « intermittence » de l’énergie nucléaire. Pour rappel, la seule énergie intermittente, c’est l’énergie renouvelable. La démonstration en trois graphiques.
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1/5. More Ontario, Canada visuals following-up earlier thread #energytwitter .How do nuclear, hydro, gas & wind work to meet Market Demand in one of the cleanest multi-tech grids in world?.It has cost us dearly to get here, pity some of it is now at risk🧵.
1/3. Ever wondered what dispatchable vs. intermittent electricity generation looks like? #energytwitter.Inspired by @TristanKamin, I charted hourly 2021 data (8,760 points) for Ontario, Canada. Start with 2 largest sources, Nuclear (57% of mix) & Hydro (24%), scaled accordingly.
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Ontario, Canada🇨🇦 as a clean-electricity⚡️case study highlighting differences between ACTUAL PRICES to CONSUMERS (RPP) versus the oft-cited MODELLED levelized COST of energy (LCOE) to PRODUCERS based on Lazard financial modelling. Actual vs. Modelled.Price vs. Cost.Consumer vs.
Latest Ontario Energy Board electricity generation supply costs RPP report for the next 12 months just dropped. and here is my update going back ten years. this time trying it with a log scale. Hydro remains our lowest supply cost generation technology, followed by nuclear
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“Power at cost” was the slogan used by Sir Adam Beck, the Conservative MPP and first chair of Ontario Hydro, created in 1906, to campaign against expensive private power in favour of public, low-cost electricity such that even the “poorest working man will have electric light
The spirit of Sir Adam Beck is alive and well in Ontario. Abundant, reliable inexpensive electricity, this will be the foundation that underpins electrification in the province. 💪.
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Super pleased to have my first @TheAgenda article, discussing the $6.9 billion/year (yes BILLION) Ontario Government electricity subsidies, how we got here and what the parties are proposing to do about it!. A shorter update from my 2018 election article:.
Ontario election: The $6.9 billion budget item that (almost) no one is talking about — by @E_R_Sepulveda #onpoli #onelxn
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Which #OECD countries have lowered #electricity #emissions? How did they do it, at what pace, at what price? #COP26. My 5th round of 4-country profiles: #Denmark, #France, #NewZealand, #Slovakia . Include emissions & price averages (AVG) from 24-country sample 4 comparison!. 🧵.
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The @AtmosphericFund is a City of Toronto agency with a mandate to reduce local GHGs. Endowed with $100M, TAF has a strong record funding local efficiency projects, but has stumbled in recent advocacy to influence provincial electricity policy. Extended 🧵.
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"Nuclear power is a safe, reliable, and clean energy source. It is also a critical input in life‐saving medical technology. Ontario is fortunate to be a global leader in the nuclear industry.".
The Ontario government tabled its 2023 budget today, which clearly reaffirms its commitment to supporting the cornerstone of the province's #cleanenergy and economic advantage, #NuclearEnergy present and future. #CANDU #BWRX300.
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Super pleased to have been one of the first signatories, now with a total of 9,123 other Canadians, of petition urging Federal Government to include homegrown CANDU tech in Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit. Thx to @Dr_Keefer for initiating & @viraniarif for sponsoring it.
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Belated shout out to @fredstaffordcs & @Matthuber78 for @jacobin public power in USA article - highly recommended!. As a complement, and to provide analysis of how Canada come to be an “existing highly decarb grid . mostly powered by public centralized hydro & nuclear". 🇨🇦🧵.
Large-scale public ownership of utilities, supported by strong union power, is the only way to avoid a decentralized renewable energy industry that runs on deregulated markets, tax shelters for corporations, and an insecure and transient workforce.
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The one chart I would've liked to have had when I started researching electricity in Ontario, Canada:. Generation and ownership/control (public or private enterprise) mix by tech. Evolution of unit costs by tech; how and by whom are those prices/costs set?. #energytwitter #onpoli
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@Klaus_W_W Other Germans have also confirmed that it geo-blocked in Germany. Solution is VPN to access from other country/region.
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I am no longer grumpy.
In 2022 the Director General of @NRCan thought there was never any chance of Canada’s Green Bond framework including non-emitting nuclear energy. Today ⚛️ was included, another example of growing public support for nuclear energy projects
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Great @mattgurney Pickering refurbishment article, focussing on electricity reliability (looking at you Germany, of the dimming street lights, for starters); complements earlier article by @jm_mcgrath looking at Pickering from a political perspective.
There’s a lot to like about the idea of extending the service life of Ontario's Pickering nuclear reactors — and adding a whole bunch more of them, according to @mattgurney. #nuclearpower #ClimateAction #onpoli.
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Not only that, @fredstaffordcs, but initial data analysis shows that renewables, mostly rolled out by private entities, are associated with price increases that are more than five times higher than that of nuclear, for example, that was mostly rolled out by public entities.
Why do socialists have to pray at altar of renewables when making otherwise useful, necessary crit of privatization & profit-seeking in ⚡️ industry. The point is to develop clean, cheap, expanded electrical grid according to pub need, long-term planning; not just more renewables!.
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Yes, Liberals leaving it to the "market". Because COP26 is about markets, not policy. Because the Liberal carbon tax does not impact markets. Because the Liberal purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline ($4.5b) was all about free markets. Because we get to pick & choose.
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1/2. Another well-written piece by @nukebarbarian, this on Germany's energy policy and its path dependence to current geo-strategic conundrum. Results? Billions of Euros, high consumer prices, dirty grid. My target? Feed-in-tariffs (FIT) & how they increase economic inequality.
Happy to be in @compactmag_ writing about the insanity of Germany's commitment to shutting down its nuclear reactors. Thanks to @Edwin_Aponte_Jr for the masterful edits.
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@fredstaffordcs @Matthuber78 @Leigh_Phillips @TUED_global @CVOUICNI @IBEW @SPEACanada @TheSocietySays @collectifission @_cosatu By popular demand. the figure with the same vertical axes - highlights the difference between the absolute levels across both countries!. Also, allows me to add further description to the differences in level of vertical coverage between two surveys.
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@brorurban @TristanKamin Until the early 1950s we were almost all hydro, after which we ran out & started building coal & then nuclear, which we used to phase out coal. Now, nuclear and hydro is baseload (cover 80-90% avg. demand), with wind & solar on top and gas covering the gaps and peaks.
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Today we first get news that organized workers in Ontario - @OFL - endorses #nuclearenergy and now in the fall economic statement we get the 🇨🇦Federal Green Bond Program Framework revised to include #nuclearenergy, including to reflect "evolving investor preferences". This
NEW NUCLEAR REACTORS AND REFURBS ARE ELIGIBLE FOR GREEN BONDS! . Per Fall Economic Statement, released just 20 minute sago
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Another great piece of writing from @nukebarbarian, arguing "efficiency is not generation"; exposing degrowth dreams for the nightmares they would be for most of humanity.
You can read my latest piece on why the Democrats are so obsessed with transmission schemes as a "solution" to power generation problems in @Gen_Atomic's The Kernel. Thanks to @ecopragmatist for giving me a shot!
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Very nice graphics, cutting through the PR hype. Thank you @GrantChalmers.
Carbon Intensity of Electricity consumption in 2021. Monthly minimum vs maximum readings over the last 12 months, overall median represented by a blue asterisk. #rstats #ggplot2 #gganimate #carbonneutrality #ESG #cleanenergy #energytwitter @electricityMap
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Which #OECD countries have lowered #electricity #emissions, by how much, at what pace, with which tech, & at what price?.6th of 4-country profiles: #Belgium, #Germany, #Greece, #Netherlands. ANNOUNCEMENT: new web-site with all 24 profiles - check out 🧵.
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Nice. Could not find a poster/pamphlet for the "Atoms not Dams" campaign, but how about this earlier (1955) USPS stamp commemorating the "Atoms for Peace" programme?
Sierra Club California had an “Atoms not Dams” campaign in the 1960s to build a nuclear plant in San Francisco, with the goal to promote conservation in California.
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Yet another great piece from @fredstaffordcs, this time in @TheBTI arguing for the benefits of public power, of nuclear power, and of public nuclear power in the USA. In contrast, in Canada public power is the norm, & all nuclear power to date has been built as public power. 🧵.
With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, @fredstaffordcs argues it’s time to revive a New Deal politics of public power—one in which nuclear energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority should be front and center:.
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The Board of @AtmosphericFund, a City of Toronto agency with a $100 million endowment, will meet Tuesday November 21, inc. to vote on proposed investments. On the agenda is a $3.5 million investment to provide a type of line-of-credit for an unknown proponent so that this
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🚨My first Substack (sort of)!. BF Randall has included some of my Ontario, Canada quantitative and graphical electricity analysis in his Substack!.
Latest Substack article: Huge respect for the work of @E_R_Sepulveda .
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My latest Ontario hydro blog, first @OntarioPCParty edition, where: 1) I assess @GregRickford options on more borrowing to maintain below-cost prices; 2) analyse cancellation of #renewables projects; 756 by Directive & White Pines by legislation. #onpoli
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"La Conquista de la Energia" wall mural at #Mexico's UNAM university, by José Chávez Morado, completed 1953. from darkness/fear on the left, progressing rightwards to a new era of light, guided by the atom.
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Interesting to see the comparions across the Atlantic. Ontario, Canada's 18 🇨🇦CANDU reactors are rate-regulated/contracted at average of CAD$101/MWh (about €68/MWh), which includes operation & maintanance AND additional cost of refurbishment to extend life of 10 units by
Good news from 🇫🇷France & for French nuclear⚡️:. 1) proposal to fiscally ring-fence France from the broader European wholesale electricity market is just another example of nations/jurisdictions recognizing the limits/deficiencies of these neoliberal constructs. 2).
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Who said Doomberg is all doom and gloom?. This is ultimately an optimistic thread on the power (pardon pun) of political advocacy (with a little help from an energy crisis) to influence, and hopefully change, prevailing soft-energy policies in Germany and California.
1/ By systematically shutting down baseload-critical nuclear power facilities and replacing them with intermittent renewable energy, Germany has left itself – and by extension, the entire European Union – vulnerable to shortages of reliable sources of electricity.
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@CER_REC That Report "explores possible energy futures" including "six possible electricity scenarios". There is no "will". These are all POSSIBLE scenarios. Your question should have been "in our Report, under our scenarios, what are the generation sources. ".
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📘Look what just arrived in the mail from @VersoBooks: 📕Adolph Reed Jr's "The South" and 📗@Matthuber78's "Climate Change as Class War". choices, choices.
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@pjanik_otm Thx, I had not seen this before, but very pleased to see that the cumulative EEG numbers to 2021 in this report are €304 Billion (constant, 2022), which are consistent with my estimates of €320 billion to 2022 (constant, 2022). Agreed, these are the narrowly-defined EEG costs.
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Great overview of failure of "restructured" electricity markets in USA to deliver on promise of lower prices & increased reliability (& unicorns). Thx @UtilityDive for publishing this insightful article by former head of IL PUC, a restructured state!.
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