ERCOT Traders Anon
@ERCOTAnon
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Here to help with understanding how ERCOT works. No commentary on prices or futures markets (thanks Barney Frank). Not affiliated with ERCOT whatsoever.
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Pinned Tweet
@wheughan
@agelston
@tipvortice
The easy button is certainly using central planning to dictate investment. That is why innovation will come from ERCOT and not other regions.
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My take on the havoc that Elliott unleashed on the power grids: 1) it could have been a lot worse. 2) this will only get worse in the future and it is a nationwide problem.
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@iluminatibot
I just paid taxes on interest I received from the IRS for over paying my taxes in a prior year during which I was hit with a penalty for underpayment in years prior to that. Go figure.
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Anyone complaining about bitcoiners making $$$ in
@ERCOT_ISO
just expose themselves as luddites and extremely unaware of how the real world works. I am taking a list. You are not serious people and your lack of sophistication and understanding of the world is shocking.
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To everyone complaining about
@ERCOT_ISO
's supply/demand graph...they finally fixed it! Available capacity are generation units that aren't scheduled to run but are able to run in the case the demand comes in higher...should be a more reasonable representation going forward...
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The last 100 years of fossil fuel engorgement was a mirage of high quality of life that will end up lasting just a handful of generations. The quicker everyone realizes that, the better we can prepare for the future.
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This is a national problem caused by growing loads due to electrification, retirement of substantial fossil and nuclear assets, and growing penetration of intermittent resources.
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This is odd.
Nothing like a 2 month lead time capacity auction. This was designed to fail so
@ERCOT_ISO
can blame market participants if we see EEA3 this winter. They even named the units and the shaming has already begun over at Bloomberg. Sorry,
@cpsenergy
.
As part of ERCOT’s reliability-first approach to grid operations, a Request for Proposal (RFP) was issued to stakeholders today to increase reserves, adding up to an additional 3,000 MW for the winter 2023-24 peak load season. Read the news release here: .
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If I were
@GovAbbott
or the
@PUCTX
, I would immediately begin preparations for potential emergency operations for next week's cold snap. This would include a press conference either tomorrow or Thursday outlining their plans for managing supply/demand over the coming week.
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Buckle your seat belts because everyone is out to make a buck and not interested in solutions, regulators are clueless, and the trends that got us here are not slowing down.
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@TracesofTexas
Also slavery was not permitted north of the 36.30 parallel so pro-slavery Texas wanted to maintain their control of slavery within the state.
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@brittanieshey
Always prepare. Have everything ready to go June 1st. Don't rely on more than 24 hours of notice when stores are jammed.
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Might see 83GW+ of load on Wednesday 6/28?
@ERCOT_ISO
wind forecast calls for 20GW+ all day long, so should be good operationally unless forecast sees a big change.
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In the meantime, catch up on your prepping skills to make sure you and your family can remain safe in extreme weather without support from the luxuries of public utilities.
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No one really talking about
@ERCOT_ISO
's proposed changes to by-laws which can (and likely will) remove the stakeholder process. We are watching ERCOT develop into a fully political organization before our eyes.
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Lots of golden nuggets in here.
People need to learn how to read the protocols before they trade in this market/operate assets. It's not that hard.
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In the meantime, blame your governor, other people's governors, wind, cold weather and hot weather. Rest assured that your blame means nothing and we are in for a wholesale change in how we live our life.
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Kirby ice house is doing well....would never know ercot market is trash right now.
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Not sure how the City of Sanger is getting away with this. Their lack of planning borders on criminal negligence and city leadership should be brought before the PUCT to explain why they were unprepared.
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Today looking to come in much lower than the very strong DAM clearing price. How much did this junior journalist buy in the DAM to write such an article??
Also, Bloomberg needs better ideas when it comes to electricity market commentary. (garbage)
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A cautionary tale of capacity markets. PJM has spent (read: end use customers gave this to gemeration owners) $58 billion over 7 years and still had a nearly catastrophic result in a region thought to have ample reserve margins.
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If this wasn't on Christmas weekend, loads would have been much higher and everyone would have dug deeper into emergency operations.
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Do we hit 80gw of load tomorrow? These gen outages are outrageous. RUCs + compressed outage season = crap performance.
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I feel like we need some social media teams following these line crews around rebuilding lines around the Houston area. They are doing some awesome work with almost no exposure...this storm really did some nasty stuff and recovering this quickly from 42% outage rate is amazing.
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One thing that stuck out at me during the
@ERCOT_ISO
board meeting is that the board members recognized that the nation is watching Texas. We have the most renewables, soon to be most batteries, the tightest s/d, and highest load growth.
@duncan__c
@ERCOT_ISO
doing the best job IMO. Build the big projects out over time. Let batteries and dynamic loads self optimize on the ends of chronic congestion along the development cycle. Who else does it better?
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This is a terrible take.
All we have heard from the "fix the grid" advocates is that if we just connected to the "national grid", we would alleviate our problems. Turns out our friends in MISO and SPP are also in emergency conditions today thus jeopardizing imports from them.
@ERCOT_ISO
It is completely disingenuous of
@ERCOT_ISO
and
@PUCTX
, and by extension,
@GregAbbott_TX
, to lay some blame on other states for a Texas problem.
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I propose that the state of Texas enacts an excise tax on bitcoin mining similar to that of oil and gas. Mining ops will soak up cheap power thus driving up prices and have other effects on infrastructure. Thoughts?
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@grid_status
Batteries were most definitely setting the price. The energy pricing predators of the early 2000s did not in fact go extinct but have been reincarnated.
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So when is the grid supposed to fail? Nothing like seeing confirmation bias cloud a bunch of left leaning but otherwise intelligent people into attack the state of S/D on the grid. Learn your craft, forget your bias.
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@NiyerClimate
ERCOT traders are Neanderthals. If you took the top handicapper from the local dog track and somehow got him through business school, you would have an ideal ERCOT trader.
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Monday looks tight. Still a low chance of EEA3 (rotating outages). Likely to see some degree of ancillary deoyment (industrial load curtailment) and maybe a conservation alert.
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Nothing like the reverse cap print! SCED at 9:20AM this morning.
All of those peanut gallery attendees talking about how it would be awesome to harness negative prices...this led to a -$937.66 LZ_SOUTH price which is something to talk about.
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Perfect ERCOT trader job description
Every time you obsess about money remember... 5,000 people applied for this:
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I like to keep this as an ERCOT account,but...As a 2A supporter, the firearm economy is broken and needs serious reforming. And I absolutely hate the
@NRA
.
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Load coming in a lot lower as market participants respond to tight system conditions and strong pricing.
The evening solar ramp is still a significant feature to get through today with solar production at 9.7GW as of 1830 and trending to zero by 2015 or so.
Tonight will be interesting.
@ERCOT_ISO
dealing with the new normal of a solar heavy grid with no growth in thermal generation and massive demand growth
Batteries will do very well this evening. Solar-hedged load not so much. Hopefully no operational issues but will be close
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Why does the IMM have such a problem with how Sum23 turned out? We had one EEA2,
@ERCOT_ISO
had its back against the wall several days, we got to 75% PNM. Sounds like
@ERCOT_ISO
and
@PUCTX
stuck the landing on market design.
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I just saw that ERCOT is accounting for 690MW of solar for their winter peak supply. I know this methodology is defined by the protocols, but accounting for more than 0 MW of solar for winter peak demand is asinine.
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Who is ready for the total non-event eclipse?
Thankfully, prices are so shit right now (-$0.61 at HB_WEST
@1025
) that solar has self curtailed before the event, lessening any operational impact of the plunge in an hour or so.
@ERCOT_ISO
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@SpaceCityWX
Centerpoint is untouchable. They got away with negligence during Uri (Houston had it WAY worse than rest of the state) and they will get away with this also.
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@douglewinenergy
Looks like batteries contributed to the frequency drop. Can't tell how much lag is in the fuel mix dashboard, but I wouldn't go around saying batteries helped when they were near zero just after we hit the low in PRC.
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How many REPs did ECRS kill this summer? I am thinking at least 2 and maybe up to 4. Complete silence from
@PUCTX
on this reduction in competition in the market. Does anyone even care anymore??
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Tonight will be interesting.
@ERCOT_ISO
dealing with the new normal of a solar heavy grid with no growth in thermal generation and massive demand growth
Batteries will do very well this evening. Solar-hedged load not so much. Hopefully no operational issues but will be close
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@acaseofthegolf1
Isn't there some level of courtesy from tournament organizers to reach out to players if it's immediately evident there has been a paperwork snafu? Seems wrong to call hours later and say "gotcha!"
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@SanAntoGuera
@GovAbbott
The biggest gas-lighting from Uri is that
@ERCOT_ISO
failed and people associated with
@ERCOT_ISO
give to
@GovAbbott
when in reality the natural gas producers/pipelines failed the biggest in Uri, are unaccountable, and are the ones that give the big $$$$ to state politicians.
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@NUCLRGOLF
It's a good rule. Don't make your ball move now matter how shady the lie is. Otherwise we will have jokers poking their lie all day to get a more consistent hit.
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Been a while since we have seen load curtailment due to a transmission emergency. This was an extreme ice storm.
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@douglewinenergy
@REWorld
Good article. Capacity market in ERCOT is pure corporate welfare that will not build a single MW. Plenty of other avenues that are technology agnostic to increase supply such as additional ancillary requirements and emphasis on DR and micro grids.
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@MoseBuchele
Lt. Dan has been bamboozled by Buffet financed lobbyists that are implementing the same strategy utilized by nuclear plant developers. Way under bid a guaranteed return project then throw your hands up when the budget is waaay short but now you have a trapped customer.
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@douglewinenergy
This is likely a physical restraint on their distribution system. This is a high growth area of the state in an area that has not had growth in a long time. They were unprepared for peak demand from their new customers.
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Well there we have it. They are not taking this threat very seriously.
They are banking on not having an EEA event which is still very much in the cards. The lack of public comment will not look good come next week.
If I were
@GovAbbott
or the
@PUCTX
, I would immediately begin preparations for potential emergency operations for next week's cold snap. This would include a press conference either tomorrow or Thursday outlining their plans for managing supply/demand over the coming week.
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To be clear...I think bitcoin is a scam and is a wasteful use of resources. But so are many other industries. If a bunch of nerds want to run an expensive toaster oven that creates Pokémon cards so they can evade taxes and lauder money, it's none of my business.
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@n4hpg
@GregAbbott_TX
Grid is doing fine. We have a great "all of the above" energy strategy thanks to the free market that allows everyone to bring their technology of choice.
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Having a market wide state of charge status of batteries would be super helpful on days like this.
@ERCOT_ISO
@PUCTX
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@edhirs
@ERCOT_ISO
All batteries with the $1,000+ offers per the 3-day reports. They crushed the market. Welcome to the market of state-of-charge withholding.
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If we require a conservation alert during this heat wave, we will likely need it for the 7:30PM-9:00PM time frame and not the afternoon like prior events. I am not sure
@ERCOT_ISO
is ready for this type of messaging as the general public will likely be confused in such a case
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Very irresponsible messaging from the "media" on this one.
While this is a serious situation, fear mongering for clout and engagement from a major media outlet is reckless.
Brace yourselves.
I’m no electricity expert, but this chart from
@ERCOT_ISO
shows we are about to have more demand for electricity than supply. That is bad. Like February 2021 bad.
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The
@PUCTX
meeting to discuss
@ERCOT_ISO
NPRR 1186 on Thursday 1/18 is going to be quite interesting considering that batteries might be in a do/die scenario during this upcoming winter event. We will get to see what happens when everyone realizes SOC and capacity are different.
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@FracSlap
@Tejanobrown
Oilfield requires you to actually show up to work though, so probably wouldn't work for most of these people.
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I hope centerpoint gets fucking roasted by state govt....they deserve it so bad for reasons I can't say.
.
@DanPatrick
just now at a presser in Galveston: "CenterPoint will have to answer for themselves if they were prepared and positioned. The state was positioned and prepared. I'll tell you whether I'm satisfied or not when I have a full report on where their crews were [and] how
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Looks like a great comms director. Not sure what the point is here.
This is a Communications Director for the US department of the Interior:
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Great article on what is going on right here.
Pretty crazy that KUT is better at covering energy markets than Bloomberg, but I think it's better this way.
@KUT
@mattlargey
@MichaelEWebber
@douglewinenergy
@business
Yes, sometimes wholesale electricity prices get high in Texas. They were at $1000+/mwh last hour.
That's by design!
It doesn't mean your next electricity bill is going to be crazy.
An explainer:
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@douglewinenergy
Seems like the right call. Otherwise you have an endless dream of claims that are just claims on taxes. Unless you want to criminally charge an executive for malfeasance or negligence, no good solutions here.
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Ridiculous that this disinformation gets 8500 likes.
@ERCOT_ISO
could use better public engagement. They should hire whoever does
@Wendys
Our power is out!! Texas heat, they are doing rolling black outs to save energy. Didn’t fix anything after the power grid failed us in the snow storm!
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The deafening silence from
@ERCOT_ISO
and
@PUCTX
in front of this winter storm is worrisome. The forecast is okay for now, but certainly evidence supports an elevated risk of rotating outages on the back end of this storm. Preparations and communication starts now if I were them.
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@mandhana_abhi
No. But it will be close. Might see several months with off>on by 2028, but scarcity premiums for winter peaks should keep on>off on a calendar year forward basis. Battery buildout and NOx optimization will be factors on how quickly we see off>on.
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Good thread. The PCM is a threat to free markets in Texas and will put politically connected incumbent businesses in control of our electric market.
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@douglewinenergy
@ERCOT_ISO
Macro picture is that it did increase costs substantially with marginal benefit and we have yet to see constructive market design changes going forward. The lack of hard and dependable market changes is a huge fail at this point.
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@MoseBuchele
The South Texas grid is a mess. DFW was designed by DP&L/TXU/Oncor, Houston by HP&L/CNP. San Antonio and Austin w/ city utilities. The area south of i-10 is a patchwork of tiny co-ops and we have built a ton of generation down there in the last 10 years with not enough upgrades.
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This is one area where
@ERCOT_ISO
needs to take control.
@ERCOT_ISO
, the REPs, and T&D operators all have divergent motivations during high usage and
@reliantenergy
asking for lower demand for no apparent reason (they want more money) creates confusion for the general public.
Summer heat is creating high electricity demand across Texas. Please help conserve Sunday, August 6, from 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. Get tips and tools to conserve here:
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Load coming in extra spicy. Tomorrow could be in the upper 70GW range or perhaps close to 80GW unless we get a solid "holiday/weekend" effect. Temps appear to be lower than forecast per
#wxtwitter
. Not anticipating any "issues" but certainly looks to be tighter than expected.
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Any odds on
@ERCOT_ISO
not being as conservative with RUC and NSRS deployments after the gubernatorial election in November? We are literally
@California_ISO
right now.
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@CareyWKing
@sara_dinatale
@ERCOT_ISO
Batteries are over-selling their capabilities in day ahead ancillary markets.
In some circles, this would be considered fraud. Grid security should be taken seriously.
Also, not all battery owners were for this.
@ramirazodi
@ERCOTAnon
@PUCTX
@ERCOT_ISO
It seems to me these would be pretty straightforward enforcement cases.
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We have true idiots running things down at
@ERCOT_ISO
these days. What a short sighted, dumb decision. Forced outage rates are likely to go way up in the near future with ERCOT not allowing maintenance to take place.
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To be clear, these entities have no profit motive for their behavior, which makes they laziness and apathy almost more egregious. They are merely incompetent and the state of Texas has not made clear that this behavior will not be accepted.
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The best part of an eclipse are the cresent shaped shadows that appear everywhere.
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Kudos to
@ERCOT_ISO
for issuing the conservation alert tomorrow. We as Texans should be fine but these things are necessary with this record heat in place. Very low odds of EEA3 for tomorrow.
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We having outrageous load growth, most new supply is intermittent renewable or 1-2 hour batteries, and somehow more ancillaries is a bad thing. I don't understand the argument; opponents are people are living in the past.
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@RogerPielkeJr
No one cares about joshua trees, no one cares about CO2/global warming, no one cares about solar farms.
What people care about is making as much money as possible. Even better when you have a development project that involves multiple layers of government to maximize profits
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@douglewinenergy
@PUCTX
This is classic regulatory capture by
@nrgenergy
&
@Exelon
. This market redesign as proposed will only concentrate the market power of the big gentailers and lock out disruptive companies. These guys will build zero new plants and these revenues will support legacy fossil assets
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@MichaelEWebber
Terrible idea to add gas plants as a reliability backstop when gas supply was the primary constraint of the last market failure. DR on both residential and industrial would have the cheapest impact. Even well-informed industrials have difficulty accessing market prices.
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@wfaaweather
Prices should down from last year. Still mostly a nat gas market which is near all time lows. 2022 was a ball buster but it is behind us. Once everyone resets fixed price contracts we should be headed lower in the interim.
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@reliantenergy
Why are y'all asking for conservation when
@ERCOT_ISO
has yet to offer any official guidance?
You should be clear that this is your preference due to portfolio management reasons and not something recommended by the grid operator at this moment.
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@ERCOT_ISO
Current temperature forecasts are rivaling the 2011 heat. Alas only for one day. Crazy to see this kind heat in June and without significant drought encroachment. Thankfully wind is up or this would be a major issue.
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@RolandForTexas
What is your recommendation? We are dealing with record heat and record loads thanks to population gains and the grid is performing much better than it would have in prior years. It is not an easy solution.
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@PUCTX
I would recommend stronger price signals on existing markets (ie energy and ancillary services) and refrain from adding more complexity to generator revenues. This will make it easier for new entrants to price and finance new assets that are required of our growing state.
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@ISOTraderGeorge
@douglewinenergy
@MichaelEWebber
@ERCOT_ISO
Well now outages are higher...up to almost 9gw today. Tomorrow could be interesting from price perspective.
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Does anyone actually believe that there is 14.8GW of energy efficiency to be had on the grid? That would be nearly a 20% reduction in demand. I don't doubt there are some things to be done, but these numbers seem like they are from la-la land.
For our health, climate and pocketbooks, there are better ways to stabilize the Texas grid than building natural gas plants. Don't let
#txlege
overcharge you to make their donors even wealthier.
#CleanEnergy
@HoustonChron
#energytwitter
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How long will
@ERCOT_ISO
and
@PUCTX
allow this?
I have seen
@FOX4
and
@abc13houston
falsely report that
@ERCOT_ISO
has issued a conservation alert for the last two days when it actually a private entity looking to influence the market for their gain.
Summer heat is creating high electricity demand across Texas. Please help conserve TODAY, August 7, from 2 to 7 p.m. Get tips and tools to conserve here:
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The facts/questions:
-
@ERCOT_ISO
load forecasts are already topping 80gw which is higher than the 78.3gw scenario laid out in the Jan24 MORA report. This report indicated a 16.77% risk of rotating outages in the stress scenario. Does
@ERCOT_ISO
see a higher risk at this point?
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@tipvortice
Funny that renewable build out is happening and continues to accelerate the fastest in the most liberalized market.
He just wants a fat cat job at a soviet style central planning commission to satisfy his ego...facts be damned.
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@MichaelEWebber
The free market wing of the republican party left a long time ago. What you see here is a group of adults looking to book out their hunting season trips by doling out some serious corporate welfare. Oh, and it won't change supply economics in ERCOT significantly.
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August like heat in May when we still have 20gw of outages...should be interesting. I think we will be safe from EEA b/c bitcoiners can't be the reason we hit an EEA or they will get booted from the state.
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