Deryn
@DerynConsulting
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Largest & fastest growing public affairs consultancy in Wales. Cwmni cysylltiadau cyhoeddus yng Nghymru - @Cathy_Owens @NerysEvans & team -- info @deryn .co.uk
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Pinned Tweet
🚨 BREAKING: Eluned Morgan MS has become the new leader of Welsh Labour
8
13
46
🚨New polling from
@WalesOnline
/
@YouGov
shows the Conservatives slipping below 20% of the vote in Wales (lower than they got in 2001 and similar to their 1997 result).
🔵 Conservative - 19%
🔴 Labour - 53%
🟠 Liberal Democrats - 4%
🟢 Plaid Cymru - 12%
🟣 Reform - 8%
🧵
13
50
148
Survation has published a new MRP Poll 🤓
The results for Wales are as follows* 👇:
Labour: 29 (+10)
Plaid Cymru: 2 (nc)
Lib Dems: 1 (+1)
Conservatives: 0 (-11)
36
49
139
New System Senedd Voting Intention from
@WalesGovernance
:
🔴 Labour 25%
🟢 Plaid Cymru 24%
🔵 Conservatives 16%
🟣 Reform UK 16%
🟤 Abolish 7%
🟩 Green Party 6%
🟡 Liberal Democrats 6%
⚪️ Other 1%
Exc. non-voters and DKs
(collected 5-18 July, N=2,565)
New piece by me looking at multilevel voting in Wales🏴
- Voter switching between Westminster and the Senedd🔁
- How popular are the parties?
- Seat projections for expanded Senedd
All using new
@WalesGovernance
Welsh Election Study data
5
56
118
6
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133
Delighted to have won Best Campaign in Wales at
#PublicAffairsAwards2018
for 'Dementia Friends' campaign with
@BootsUK
💪
9
8
81
The latest Welsh Political Barometer Poll by
@YouGov
for
@ITVWales
and
@cardiffuni
has been published! 🏴🗳️
🔴Labour 26
🟢Plaid Cymru 17
🔵Conservatives 14
❌Abolish the Assembly 2
🟠Liberal Democrats 1
5
30
70
🚨 NEW ITV Wales/Barn Cymru Poll
Labour: 40%
Conservatives: 16%
Reform UK: 16%
Plaid Cymru: 14%
Lib Dem: 7%
Green: 5%
Other: 2%
Find our interactive map below:
22
34
69
We’re delighted to welcome a new Deryn to the nest, croeso mawr to our new Account Manager
@MiaReesWales
🐦
15
3
64
Team Deryn all set for the Gineral Election Party - Gin,
@lovepizzapronto
and a long night of results!
#GE2017
4
6
63
Mid and West Wales Regional Result
🔴Welsh Labour: 2 seats
🟢 Plaid Cymru: 1 seat
🟡 Welsh Lib Dems: 1 seat
0
13
58
New Wales poll from
@WalesGovernance
&
@ITVCymruWales
🚨🚨
Westminster voting intention:
Conservative - 18% (-5)
Labour - 51% (+5)
Lib Dem - 4% (-1)
Plaid Cymru - 13% (-2)
Reform UK - 8% (+3)
Green - 4% (+1)
Other - 2% (-1)
Our new poll in conjunction with
@WalesGovernance
puts Labour in comfortable lead over Conservatives in Wales, with Labour support is at its highest in a decade🗳️
Mae ein pôl diweddaraf yn dangos bod cefnogaeth Llafur ar ei huchaf yng Nghymru ers degawd.
3
20
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8
31
58
First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford has just announced his new
@WelshGovernment
team, which you can see below.
Mae Prif Weinidog Cymru Mark Drakeford wedi cyhoeddi ei dim newydd - gweler isod.
1
28
55
Here’s the newest member of the Deryn team | Aelod newydd o’r tîm - croeso i Teri! 🐶
6
2
54
📊 Today’s poll by YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni shows Welsh Labour’s vote share at its highest since March 2018.
🔵 Conservative - 23% (-3)
🔴 Labour - 46% (+5)
🟠 Liberal Democrats - 5% (-2)
🟢 Plaid Cymru - 15% (-1)
Here’s what that looks like in the Deryn seat projector ⬇️
5
18
52
We have mapped
@focaldataHQ
's most recent poll, which suggests that Labour is set for a 30 seat majority in Wales!
The data also suggests that Plaid Cymru would be set to retain their two seats in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli.
16
18
50
Cardiff West: 13% swing from Labour to Plaid Cymru
Gorllewin Caerdydd: 13% o ogwydd o Lafur i Blaid Cymru
1
12
52
📣The General Election is only 48 hours away and here are the the estimated declaration times for constituencies in Wales published by
@PA
last week.🏴
⏲️Keep an eye on the results on the 4th of July!
#WalesGE24
1
26
46
News tonight that Jeremy Miles has secured multiple MS nominations, effectively confirming that there will only be two names on the ballot.
6
19
44
Always nice to see a Welsh poll. We've mapped the ITV Wales poll just released. Seats would be as follows
Labour 27 (+9)
Conservative 2 (-10)
Plaid Cymru 3 (+1)
4
9
37
Following another request for a political cartoon portrait from our very talented
@LouisPMertens
- here’s yours
@carolynharris24
💪🎨
1
5
36
The First Minister has officially announced his first Welsh Government Cabinet🏴
A full list of the Cabinet Secretaries and Ministers can be found below👇
4
9
34
🎨 Massive, massive thanks to supremely talented
@regangilflin
@unifycreative_
for her incredible mural of Lady Rhondda that’s now brightening up our walls at Deryn Towers 🤩
Amazing right?
5
7
35
Winners of
#PublicAffairsAwards
for Best Campaign in Wales with the fantastic
@BGCWales
for the "Not the Usual Suspects" project
8
17
34
Every office has a team bike, right? A shared ride for pootling to meetings across town. Second hand and repurposed. Might even let
@SustransCymru
@stephenbrooksUK
use it.
4
0
34
The latest Welsh Political Barometer Poll by YouGov for
@ITVWales
and
@cardiffuni
has been published 🏴🗳️
🔴Labour 22
🔵Conservatives 19
🟢Plaid Cymru 14
❌Abolish the Assembly 4
🟠Liberal Democrats 1
0
12
31
Here is our gender analysis of the GE19 candidates!
This is what we think is the state of play for candidates so far in seats with less than a 10% majority. Keep an eye on our Twitter for updates.
Click to see an interactive version with a 5% filter 👇
2
22
30
The latest
@roger_scully
@Cardiffuninews
@YouGov
@ITVWales
poll is out - here's what the results look like on the Deryn Seat Projector.
3
15
29
We're excited to welcome three wonderful new team members to the nest here at Deryn.
Croeso mawr i Richard, James and Lilly 🐦
0
6
27
In honour of
@royalwelshshow
this week, we've changed our logo to show our support! Good luck to all competing & we hope that everyone has a great week | Er mwyn dangos ein cefnogaeth i'r Sioe Fawr, rydym wedi newid ein logo! Pob lwc i'r cystadleuwyr ac wythnos dda i bawb! 🐄💪
3
8
26
Not another one.
This MRP from
@wethinkpolling
has Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe on a knife edge. Only 0.2% points split Labour and the Conservatives.
Elsewhere, Labour would gain Craig Williams' Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr seat, beating the Conservatives by 14% points.
1
13
26
Very exciting that young people are talking to each other about the election and registering to vote 🏴🗳️
#Senedd2021
#SeneddElection
#RaiseYourVoice
#CodaDyLais
0
13
26
📊 Now, according to our seat projector, on the current boundaries, the Conservatives will lose 12 seats in Wales to Labour. The Tories will only hold on to Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire. Plaid keep their current 4 seats and the Lib Dems remain on 0 👇
2
9
24
Women's Equality Network Wales
@WENWales
this week launched a fabulous project
#100WelshWomen
- celebrating some of the amazing women that have made great contributions to politics, language, culture & industry in Wales. Read more about the project here 💪
0
18
24
Using our Deryn seat projector, we've mapped the data from
@YouGov
's latest Welsh Westminster voter intention poll onto the current constituency map of Wales.
Our projector shows the Conservatives losing 10 seats, 9 to the Labour Party and 1 to Plaid Cymru.
13
12
24
and we wish you a nadolig llawen from us all! 🎄
Normal leadership election coverage shall resume tomorrow 👊
Is this where we are? Blame the gin if not. We talk of nothing else at the Deryn Christmas Do.
5
2
18
1
3
24
Nice to see
@LeanneWood
taking a quick break with one of our exclusive conference cupcakes!
#Plaid17
0
5
23
🚨Nominations for the new leader of Welsh Labour have now officially closed.
@Eluned_Morgan
secured 26 out of 30 nominations from Senedd Members in the Labour Group.
Following a Senedd vote, she will become Wales's first female First Minister, with
@huw4ogmore
as Deputy First
8
8
23
We’ve launched a digital edition of our assembly infographic. Check it out here!
2
14
22
A dog friendly day in the Deryn office - enjoying the company of Raffy and Alfie! | Mwynhau cwmni Alfie a Raffy yn y swyddfa heddiw 🐶
0
2
22
We're pleased to make an appearance here! 👇🥳
Five top PR & communications consulting firms to work for
via
@Consultancy_uk
2
3
21
Here’s a fascinating map showing where there are higher proportions of female candidates.
You can click on this link here to see the interactive infographic. You can roll over the council areas to see the detail
7
19
22
We've inputted the new Opinium Poll for
@SkyNews
into our seat projector, and we've got slightly different projections. This can often be down to rounding errors and small margins in regional seat allocations. Our projections has:
🔴 Labour 30
🔵 Tories 16
🟢 PC 13
🟠 LD 1
3
8
22
The Welsh Government's Draft Budget for 2024/25 is here
We've produced a chart showing the relative size of each department's budget 👇
Just under half is going to Health and Social Services, with Education, Local Government and Climate Change also having significant budgets
2
8
21
Newly appointed First Minister Mark Drakeford has just announced his new
@WelshGovernment
team, which you can see below 👇
Mae Prif Weinidog newydd Cymru Mark Drakeford wedi cyhoeddi ei dim newydd - gweler isod.
2
17
21
📊 If these poll numbers from
@RedfieldWilton
are replicated at the General Election, based on UNS and notional data from 2019 on the new boundaries we have:
Labour 25 seats (+7)
Conservatives 2 seats (-10)
Plaid Cymru 4 seats (+2)
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (+1)
Labour leads by 22% in Wales.
Highest Reform and Plaid %'s in our polling.
Wales Westminster VI (22-23 Apr):
Labour 40% (-9)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
Reform UK 18% (+3)
Plaid 14% (+4)
Lib Dem 6% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
47
75
251
3
8
21
Looking for a Twitter list for all the new and returning MSs?
It's your lucky day! 👇
3
8
20
The current ratings of the party leaders in Wales have been released by
@roger_scully
. Polling by
@YouGov
/
@cardiffuni
shows that
@DoddsJane
has the highest likeability of the Welsh leaders, while
@NeilUKIP
remains at the bottom with 2.2/10.
1
11
19
The new Welsh Political Barometer poll is out, and it sees a big Welsh Conservative lead switch to a Welsh Labour lead.
Here's what that looks like for Westminster:
4
8
20
🚨The race to be the next
@WelshLabour
Leader has begun with
@vaughangething
already receiving enough support from MSs to make the ballot.
@Jeremy_Miles
is yet to officially declare his candidacy but has already received public support🔽
6
6
20
Green Man has created a fundraiser for Welsh communities that are affected by the recent storms.
The Green Man Trust has donated £5000, which has been matched by a £5000 contribution from Green Man Festival.
You can contribute here:
0
13
19
It's safe to say we had an absolute ball celebrating
#10YearsOfDeryn
💃🍾
Thanks to everyone who celebrated with us to mark our special anniversary. It was truly great to celebrate with so many friends and colleagues from right across Welsh politics.
Now for for some photos! 📸
2
3
20
Some of the Deryn team ready for the night ahead!
@NerysEvans
@cathy_owens
@Vicki_Evs
@ElinLlyr
#PartiDeryn
1
2
20
How well are women represented in the cabinets of the Scottish, Welsh and UK Governments? 👇
🇬🇧UK* - 22.58%
🏴Scotland - 50%
🏴Wales - 55.56%
*UK figure includes all Ministers attending Cabinet
3
6
20
Bore da pawb! Both Vaughan Gething and Jeremy Miles now have enough nominations from MSs to reach the ballot.
2
5
19
🚨New polling model released
@JLPartnersPolls
has published its first SRP. This is a bit like an MRP but uses AI to stack multiple demographic regression models (hence the S, for stacked).
We've mapped the findings for Wales below 👇
1
12
18
Brilliant recognition 4 cross party cross org cmpgn to strengthen violence against women bill
#publicaffairsawards
1
12
19
Our updated graph showing the gender of councillors by %
After last month's by-election, Monmouthshire now leads the way on Women's representation with over 50%.
Congratulations on this achievement to all parties in Monmouthshire council!
3
7
18
Today we’re launching a new website - - an archive for all political manifestos in Wales for the past 15 years.
1
18
16
Thanks for everything
@HMorganThompson
you’ve been brilliant and will be missed 🐦
Last day at
@DerynConsulting
finished. More on where I’m off another time but for now thanks so much to all my brilliant colleagues who have been amazing to work with over the years. I’ll miss working for one of the most interesting organisations in Welsh politics!
8
0
92
0
2
18
The first Welsh Political Barometer poll since June is out - and Labour has doubled its lead at a Westminster level.
Plaid Cymru's share again remains stable, and the Liberal Democrats have their worst ever poll result in Wales.
Here's how vote shares have changed over time:
1
12
16
🚨New Committee Chairs
@buffywills
has been elected as Chair of the Children, Young People, and Education Committee, and
@sarah4bridgend
has been elected as Chair of the Legislation, Justice, and Constitution Committee.
3
0
17
📊
@ITVWales
has published the results of their latest Westminster voting intention poll for Wales.
The poll shows:
Labour 49% (+8)
Conservative 19% (-17)
Plaid Cymru 12% (+2)
Reform UK 12% (+7)
Liberal Democrat 5% (-1)
Green 3% (+2)
🔗Interactive map available:
2
7
17
🏴We have mapped the 2024 Police and Crime Commissioner results by local authority area.
Click here to see the full breakdown:
2
7
17
The most recent
@RedfieldWilton
Westminster voting intention poll for Wales shows the following results:
Labour: 46% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (-1)
Conservatives: 15% (-3)
Plaid Cymru: 10% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (+2)
Green: 4% (-)
Other: 1% (+1)
The interactive map can be found
3
11
17
Great to have
@roger_scully
with us to chat about polls and possible scenarios ahead of the 2021 Senedd Election 📊 Watch this space for a link to our brand new Senedd Seat Projector - hours of fun where you can have a go at making your own predictions! 🤓
2
0
15
Here's our Welsh Labour Leadership Tracker. Bookmark this link and we'll keep it up to date with news, announcements, supporters, speeches, logistics and events. Nadolig Llawen!
4
8
16
🗳️Using our Deryn seat projector, we've mapped the data from
@RedfieldWilton
's latest Welsh Westminister voter intention onto the current constituency map of Wales.
This projection would result in Labour gaining 12 seats from the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems gaining one seat.
7
4
16
🤓 When put through our Deryn Seat Projector:
🔵 Conservatives - 2 Seats (-12)
🔴 Labour - 35 Seats (+13)
🟠 Liberal Democrats - 0 Seats (=)
🟢 Plaid Cymru - 3 Seats (-1)
🟣 Reform - 0 Seats (=)
1
1
15
Diolch
@aligoldsworthy
for coming to talk about your book ‘Poles Apart’ in our event with
@HeadsUp_Network
Insightful, inspiring & thought provoking discussion on group-think, our biases & overcoming divisions. So, when did you last change your mind ?
0
6
16
After a remarkable European election, take a look at each party’s performance in Wales. 🏴🇪🇺
Ar ôl etholiad Ewropeaidd rhyfeddol, dyma sut y perfformiodd pob plaid yng Nghymru.
2
11
15
We're delighted to be shortlisted for the
@PRCA_UK
#PRCADAREAwards
Best Public Affairs Campaign in Wales for our work with
@CAWGWales
in establishing and launching The Companion Animal Welfare Group Wales 🙌🐶😺
5
2
15
Discussion underway about how the world of work is changing
@Unis_Wales
@LearnWorkCymru
@UndebPlaidCymru
@LSRPlaid
@chwaraeteg
#Plaid18
0
10
15
With our very own pick & mix of parties, which colour will be the nation's favourite in this year's Senedd Election? The Strawberry Delight proved popular in 2016...
Sign up to our Election Service for news, policy overview & exclusive analysis 👇
0
2
16
.
@WelshConserv
leader
@AndrewRTDavies
has announced his Shadow Cabinet appointments. Here's the team 👇
0
8
14
These numbers would see Labour make several gains at the expense of the Conservatives. The Lib Dems would also pick up the hotly contested seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. This would leave the Conservatives with no seats in Wales.
1
5
16
🚨
@MikeHedgesAM
has been elected as Chair of the Legislation, Justice and Constitution Committee.
3
2
15
Here's a piece by Kitty Davies, who is doing a week's work experience with us. Nearly 16, she'll be voting in the next elections in Wales, and here outlines how she thinks we can better engage young people.
3
6
15
📊It's here! We have mapped
@Survation
's final MRP poll below 👇
Labour: 42.2%
Conservatives: 22.8%
Plaid Cymru: 0.6%
Lib Dems: 11.5%
Green: 5.4%
Reform: 12.2%
Find our interactive map below:
1
6
14
We're very excited to share our new office artwork - thanks to
@Weston_World
letting us use of one of his incredible images, and
@OnglDesignMake
for making it happen | Rydym yn gyffroes iawn i rannu ein darn newydd o gelf yn y swyddfa - diolch
@Weston_World
&
@OnglDesignMake
👌
3
3
14
We’ve definitely improved our coffee options since we got back to the office. Come and chat to us about how we can help re policy and engagement, hotdesking, meetings and monitoring ☕️🐦
0
1
14
Whooop! 🙌🏼🙌🏼🙌🏼🙌🏼 llongyfarchiadau mawr
@anwenrhiannon_
- ein Deryn newydd ni!
Enillydd Gwobr John Davies...
Anwen Rhiannon Jones
Ysgol Hanes,
@prifysgolCdydd
@anwenrhiannon_
#gwobrauCCC
6
7
45
1
2
15
So, what now?
Following Vaughan Gething's resignation as First Minister and Welsh Labour Leader, what are the likely next steps?
Here's our take on what you should be keeping an eye on over the next days and weeks as further steps become clear:
1
11
15
Chairman of
@Cardiff_Airport
Roger Lewis & CEO
@debbarber27
welcomes AMs to the launch of their annual update - kindly sponsored by
@RhunapIorwerth
Great to hear that there’s been an 8% increase in passenger numbers in the last year - nearly 1.6m passengers ✈️
1
6
15
🚨NEW: Incumbent First Minister Vaughan Gething has written to
@yLlywydd
to request that
@SeneddWales
is recalled on 6 August to formally nominate
@Eluned_Morgan
as the new First Minister.
3
2
15
Here are what the results look like when put into our Deryn Seat Projector.
Labour retakes Bridgend and Delyn from the Conservatives, and Plaid Cymru take Ynys Mon from the Conservatives.
2
8
15
And finally (unless there are more to come), we have YouGov's last MRP of the campaign
This shows a similar result to the other two in terms of the winners but shows Plaid Cymru, rather than Labour, picking up Caerfyrddin
This would mean:
Lab: 27 (+10)
Con: 0 (-12)
Plaid: 3
2
4
14
Winners of the
@PRCA_UK
Public Affairs Awards 2019 for the Best Campaign for Wales with
@BritSoftDrinks
@Foodanddrinkfed
🙌🏆
2
2
14
🚨NEW: The winner of the
@WelshLabour
Leadership election will be announced on Saturday 14th September.
Here’s the timeline for the contest in full:
4
7
14
Ipsos has published a new MRP Poll.🤓
The results for Wales are as follows 👇
Labour: 26 (+7)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+2)
Conservatives: 0 (-11)
Lib Dems: 0 (0)
Toss-up 2 (+2)
To view the vote share for each constituency, view our interactive map here:
5
8
13
📻 Deryn in the Media
📸Senior Adviser at Deryn Jo Kiernan spoke with
@felicityxevans
and
@jamswilliams85
for this week's Walescast
@MsJoKiernan
discussed the week's events, her own experience as an adviser to previous First Ministers and the upcoming contest for Welsh Labour
2
7
14