John M. Larrier
@DefenseBulletin
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(Civilian) GeoPol/MilStrat, writer for the Lethal Minds Journal ( @MindsLethal ) Bulletin From The Borderlands publication.
United States
Joined August 2021
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Always happy to be invited on the
@AnalyzeEducate
podcast. In the latest AE War Report, we pivot back to the Israel-Hamas War.
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Other than being higher than trees and small buildings here’s another reason we see Russian AD on high standing platforms. Radar horizon. I made up a quick graphic to show how a platform can extend an AD system’s radar horizon. Anything below the line is under the radar horizon.
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Interesting images via
@JoeTruzman
Vehicle identification guides. As well as graphics that highlights specific characteristics of different Israeli armored vehicles as well as their weak points.
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@sentdefender
Unpopular opinion:
If they really have this intel, comprehensive preemptive strikes on all gathering of military infrastructure and material needs to happen now.
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Comment
Just to clarify, Intelligence Community Directive 191 (ICD-191) “Duty to Warn” does in fact require U.S. intelligence agencies to warn individuals or organizations of certain threats, should they be deemed credible.
Seeing increasing claims that threat information was
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@sentdefender
A lot of people seem to be mad that we provided Russia with the threat information. There’s the criteria that has the be met for ICD-191 to holdup. The criteria must have been met if notice and transfer of information took place. Meaning no methods, frameworks, or sensitive
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@sentdefender
I swear Iran just makes up random stuff in an AI generator before they release stuff😂.
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@sentdefender
Recent news about German action or lack thereof has been pretty scathing. Throwing your allies under the bus to defend your stance, however valid, is wild to me.
Can’t forget they sent their vessel to the Red Sea with no ability to rearm key missiles that already have a 50% fail
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@sentdefender
I agree with your assumptions on capability, but so far I haven’t seen anything that would indicate they would follow through with a nuclear attack. I think that’s the point of the ambiguous language, they can always be like “we never said nuclear” and use the other unused
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In a recent article, Pentagon officials have admitted that “deterrence has not worked thus far”, further cementing the need to respond decisively to attacks on U.S. forces and commercial shipping in the region. Many, myself included, have been saying this for weeks now.
#RedSea
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Update: Iran Threat Assessment
(Long Form 🧵)
April 6, 9:17 PM East Coast U.S.
Key Event Rundown:
Date of Event- April 1, 2024
An Israeli strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria that killed senior IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the al-Quds
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@TheBrit96
@IntelCrab
Wait who remembers like a year ago when think defense had a back and forth with a follower who insisted posting naval tracking was “letting Russia know”.😂😂
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Update:
#Bolivia
It appears that Bolivian military police have taken control of the Presidential Palace. The move is sanctioned by former General Zúñiga of the Bolivian Army who confirmed his involvement in the coup d'état on television.
Comment: Context
General Zúñiga was
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Comment :
Just an addition.
Duty to Warn, or ICD-191, doesn’t necessarily extend to our enemies. As I understand it, ICD-191 can be bypassed if providing the threat information endangers and/or jeopardizes ongoing intelligence/ military operations of the U.S. and our allies.
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@bayraktar_1love
Most of the floodlights just sitting there not being used. Wild.
Only illumination they get is from 1 floodlight and the tracers.
Should have popped flares immediately.
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Some these capabilities were demonstrated at the recent joint U.S.-Saudi Combined Counter-UAS Exercise Red Sands 23.2.
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Significant Update: Credit-
@MT_Anderson
According to information from naval watchdog
@MT_Anderson
, the Iranian spy ship, the Behshad, known for providing targeting information to the Houthis, dropped off AIS tracking roughly 48 hours ago. The ship has not been located using
🇮🇷MV BEHSHAD🇮🇷
Continued presence in her 'standard' AoR (~140km East of 🇩🇯Djibouti). I wasn't able to find an escort with her but that doesn't mean there isn't one lurking...
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No combat losses from U.S. forces no ships targeted. The Green Zone has also not been targeted.
Houthis promise of retaliation…nil.
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@sentdefender
‘Where’s the President? He needs to give the green light for the strikes.”
“I think he’s watching Sesame Street.”
😂
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@ianellisjones
Kept the thread informative while still managing to diss the Russian Navy in each post.
Diabolically effective.😂🤙
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@UK_MTO
@MarineTraffic
@thewarzonewire
Comment:
These attacks seem to be a tactic employed by the Houthis to lure a coalition large surface combatant into a vulnerable position in order to strike them. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mason comes under attack as well as it’s responding to the M/V Strinda.
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Reports saying that 7 locations were hit in strikes carried out by Pakistani Air Force JF-17s inside Iran.
Plenty of airbases in the region.
Waiting on an official statement from the Pakistanis.
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@sentdefender
I’d say say yes, but only if the U.S. can quickly gain the upper hand, decisively engage and cripple adversary belligerents, and maintain stocks of weapons (particularly LRPFs).
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BREAKING NEWS:
Once a month someone re-breaks this story 😂
We already knew that IRGC advisors were on the ground in Yemen.
The Houthi themselves said we killed one the first week of strikes.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is advising and providing target information to the Houthis – a Yemeni militia that is attacking ships in the southern Red Sea, says Vice Adm. Brad Cooper.
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Update: Sino-Russian ADIZ Violation
NORAD detected a joint Sino-Russian formation of strategic bombers in the latest development in a new spat of overt strategic posturing between China, Russia, and the United States. The bombers did not penetrate U.S. and Canadian airspace, but
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Hot take :
In 2014 analysts assessed that the Russian annexation of Crimea was the shock European powers needed to get serious about independent European defense frameworks and achieving credible readiness levels.
It wasn’t.
After 8 years of Russian aggression, coercive
European states can no longer rely on the availability of US military assets when planning for a potential Russian attack.
This is devastating because the USA not only offers the most overall capabilities but also provides critical capabilities specific to this scenario.
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@RealCynicalFox
Israel to Egypt so they have a valid Casus Belli to take the Sinai Peninsula:
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The pentagon has officially announced the creation of Task Force 153 (Operation Prosperity Guardian).
Participating nations:
- U.S.
- United Kingdom
- Bahrain
- Canada
- France
- Italy
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Seychelles
- Spain
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@sentdefender
@spook_info
@The_IntelHub
@RealCynicalFox
@All_Source_News
I remember it well. We watched the first LRPF hit Kyiv live on webcams across the city.
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Some of the CENTCOM positions not filled due to hold.
- 5th Fleet Commander
- Deputy 5th Fleet Commander
- Deputy CENTCOM Commander
- Defense Attaché to Israel
- Commander of the 380th Air Expeditionary Wing
- CENTCOM CoS
- CENTCOM Deputy Dir. for Strategy Plans and Policy
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@RealCynicalFox
To go up to the podium and say this after each significant escalation by deviant actors in the region is wild. We’ve mentioned that it might take killing a U.S. soldier or severely damaging a naval vessel for the administration to respond decisively. I’m no longer sure of that.
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@sentdefender
Glad someone mentioned this. I think we were aware that they could operate these vehicles due to their involvement in Syria, Africa, and also Libya awhile back. Not to mention the Wagner operated D-30 batteries. I’m more so surprised at how much hardware they still had.
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@sentdefender
The blatant lying is hilarious. Pro-P pages also now suddenly claiming a total Palestinian death toll of 200,000. Of course, based off of “trust me bro”.
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Assessment 2/2
Size and Scale of Iran’s Response:
The time between Iran’s promise of a response and the implementation of said response is should be noted. Iran has signaled that Monday, two days from now, could mark the beginning of Iran’s response. The preparation phase
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@RealCynicalFox
I’m reading “The Rise And Fall Of The Third Reich” right now and the parallels between the beginnings of both conflicts keep jumping out. Hitler banked on French and British inaction when he reoccupied the Rhine and annexed Czechoslovakia…
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@sentdefender
I was waiting for this after last month’s debacle.
To me this looks like… “Let’s run it again for a routine checkup, and make sure we overdo the notifications and updates to make a point.”
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Unconfirmed Relevant Information:
There are numerous videos and photos now emerging from inside Iran showing considerable movement of drone carriers, mobile air-defense systems, and other hardware.
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Good map from
@ianellisjones
of strike locations based off of preliminary reports from Syrian/Iraqi media and U.S. officials.
@JenGriffinFNC
@LMartinezABC
Preliminary target locations based on initial reports & open source intel.
7 facilities (3 in Iraq, 4 in Syria) confirmed hit so far.
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Update: Coalition Strikes in Syria
It’s seems the UK joined the U.S. in recent strikes now being reported against Iran-backed militias in eastern Syria.
Two RAF FGR4 Eurofighter Typhoons seen just before landing in Cyprus at RAF Akrotiri.
Initial catch:
@Intel_Sky
’s automated
Strikes against Iranian Positions near the City of Deir ez-Zor in Eastern Syria for the Second Day in a Row, likely a Retaliatory Attack by U.S. Forces.
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Cannot stress
@TheIntelFrog
’s point enough.
Always do your own due diligence guys.
The analytical discourse surrounding the pre-planned Russian port visit to Cuba has been abysmal.
Too many people, focused on the “scoop” or “BREAKING” the story.
A quick profile search for
1 million views on a completely bullshit story.
This trip was announced by the Russians and Cubans weeks ago. The vessels have not stopped while transiting the Florida Strait and are not in a standoff with the US Navy.
This post is 100% engagement farming.
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Based on the volume of strikes as well as target choices. Kharkiv sits on a priority list for what seems to be an imminent offensive. These decapitation strikes are evidence of this. Not to mention the strikes alone appear to be part of a much larger shaping operation.
⚡Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov confirmed russian missile attacks on the city:
"The enemy is targeting critical infrastructure. There may be interruptions in electricity, water and heat supply. Information on casualties and destruction is currently being updated".
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Assessment 1/2:
The likelihood that Iranian non-state proxies, particularly the entities associated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), will participate in the expected Iranian strikes high. There has been a recent shift in IRI targeting from U.S. bases and infrastructure
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Update: Taiwan, U.S. hold Unannounced Naval Exercises
Some key points from the Reuters article.
•The US and Taiwan navies conducted joint drills in sometime in the last month.
•These drills were not publicized and officially did not take place.
•The drills involved
Exclusive: The US and Taiwan navies conducted joint drills in the Pacific in April that, officially, did not take place, as the two militaries boost cooperation amid rising Chinese military threats
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If you haven’t noticed the round the clock flights from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad this past week remember the importance of the Suwalki Gap.
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LACM MENTIONED: 🦅🇺🇸
Media in Yemen is reporting that a U.S. Naval Vessel in the Red Sea has Stuck several Houthi Positions near the Port City of Hodeidah with at least 2 Tomahawk Land-Attack Cruise Missiles.
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First in her class getting some action⚡️
Truly the year of the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.
Per a senior US defense official, the Arleigh Burke class destroyers USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) downed four Iranian medium range ballistic missiles last night.
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1/Some more photos from the port in Bremerhaven, Germany showing the offloading of roughly 60 of the Bradley M2A2 ODS APC. And and numerous MRAPs.
#Germany
#UkraineRussianWar
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Taiwan will buy as many as 400 land-launched Harpoon missiles intended to repel a potential Chinese invasion, completing a deal that Congress approved in 2020 via
@bpolitics
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Comment: DPRK
While it’s very early on, I’d posit that this recent provocation by North Korea is likely them attempting to toe the line. Similar to Iran, they have a new relationship with a major power and may feel emboldened to take steps they otherwise may not have.
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@planefag
Whenever I drew them as a kid I’d always make sure to put the two lines sticking out the back haha. 🤙
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The last time that Iran directly attacked U.S. bases and infrastructure was in January of 2020 during Donald Trump’s tenure as president. If true, this would be a deliberate step up the escalation ladder by Iran.
#Iraq
#IRGC
#Iran
BREAKING: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claims responsibility for the attack on Erbil, Iraq saying it destroyed "spy headquarters and the gathering of anti-Iranian terrorist groups in the region with ballistic missiles"
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144 attacks on U.S. bases and infrastructure.
• 57 Iraq
• 87 Syria
- Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh
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@sentdefender
Fair point. As many have said in the past few days, we don’t have much to use for source material to inform analysis for an Iran that is this assertive.
Maybe the DPRK? However, they are a whole different beast.
As funny as it may sound Iran is likely forming policy based of of
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IDF spokesperson says that approximately 1,000 Hamas fighters infiltrated the country.
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@100YearsAgoLive
I bet you guys it was proof that the admin is actually a time traveler. We are onto you!
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Moscow Theater Attack: Preliminary Assessment
(Long form)
BLUF:
On the evening of March 22, an explosion and subsequent shooting occurred at a concert hall in the Moscow region. The attack has so far resulted in at least 40 fatalities and left over 100 individuals wounded.
The
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Early reports and Ukrainian sources are now saying that the Ropucha-class landing ship Novocherkassk (designation-142) was hit in a strike in the port of Feodosia, Crimea today. A large secondary explosion was witnessed as well.
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CORRECTION: The last time an attack like this occurred was in March of 2022 on the same location. Erbil, Iraq.
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@RealCynicalFox
Interesting they are now coming to this conclusion.
I remember in your pre-war write up “Speak Russian To Putin” you advocated for a “NATO deconfliction tripwire in Ukraine that Putin will have to recognize and hesitate to cross”.
I wonder how this war would have gone if they
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@cameron19460429
@Schizointel
@HelloMrBond
@jekubi
@AnalyzeEducate
@exit266
Might of been the wrong AD system to use as an example haha. Mainly trying to hammer home the radar horizon point.
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This is the most exhaustive ATACMS thread you’ll ever come across. Give it a read.
Let’s lobby
@ColbyBadhwar
and
@cameron19460429
to start a “Munitions & Procurement” Substack.
Or podcast?
ATACMS. What is it? Why does it matter so much? How many are there? How many will Ukraine get? Every question you could possibly have, answered. It's the thread you've all been waiting for... 🧵 (1/72)
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Update: U.S. response to Iran's Strikes
In a move that follows the Biden administration's desire for the U.S. to refrain from responding militarily to Iran's strikes on Israel, Janet Yellen is expected to announce a new tranche of sanctions against Iran today.
The U.S. will also
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If you aren’t already following Ian, you’re wrong.⚡️
Special thanks to the really smart people who I get a lot of this info from & always answer my stupid questions.
@MT_Anderson
@DefenseBulletin
@mercoglianos
@Schizointel
@TheIntelFrog
@OSINTNW
@johnkonrad
@vcdgf555
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“No country represents a broader more comprehensive threat to our ideas, our innovation, our security and ultimately our national security.”
-U.S. Director of the FBI Christopher Ray.
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1) Every week for the past month the administration either gives a “final warning” to deviant actors in the region or commits to their “final attempt” at a resolution. All this hoping that the Houthis, the irrational actor who has only increased attacks, will back down.
U.S. Defense Officials and Members of the Biden Administration have reportedly begun to understand in recent weeks that Negotiations have almost Totally Failed and that a Major Regional War in the Middle East may soon be Imminent, with several “Battle Plans” and Contingencies
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Turkey has now weighed in on the tit-for-tat strikes carried out by Pakistan and Iran on non-state entities within their borders.
“We hope that issues will soon come to an end through dialogue and cooperation without further threatening regional security and stability.”
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@sentdefender
Any particular reason why we’ve seen these HIMARS more exposed than usual?
Are they being employed differently, in a more risky manner, by the Ukrainians?
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When will Sweden and Finland join NATO? Tracking the ratification process across the Alliance.
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@Schizointel
People may not want to hear this, but we’ve watched the Ukrainians time and time again push forces into meat grinders as they are in the process of being pocketed. A serious conversation needs to be had within Ukrainian higher on their defensive tactics.
If they don’t want to
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@John_A_Ridge
@devil_n_details
Comment of the century.
Honestly, the same could be said for almost any major defense contractor.
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Bro…Biden just told a lady he “wants to go home with her” at an after party on live television.😂
You can’t make this up.
Who are you guys writing in when the election comes around?
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After learning the Rus. launched a portion of last nights bombardment from the Black Sea…
-3 missile platforms
- total of twenty Kalibr cruise missiles
…once again another battlefield request by Ukr. validated by the need for the capability immediately after.
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Great format from
@GordianKnotRay
and
@ianellisjones
on recent developments in the South China Sea.
South China Sea situation
- China’s militarization, expansion & violence is destabilizing an entire region
- Ships harass, swarm, water cannon & laser neighbors
- PLA joint patrols & military drills
New map with
@GordianKnotRay
& SeaLight shining light on Chinese provocations🧵
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