CliveBixby
@CliveBixby41
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Cohost of NFL Forward Progress - @FwdProgressHQ at @thehammerhq
Joined March 2021
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TikTok gambling community just giving away ALL the secrets…
I shouldn’t tell you this…
I really shouldn’t but if you keep it to yourself…
Miami is 5-17 ATS Week 4 L22 seasons!
If this isn’t actionable, I don’t know what is?!?!
#🗑
#🤡
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Hard to come up with a tout tweet with more red flags
🚩 20 units 💣
🚩 401k on this
🚩”I can’t see how…”
🚩 excessive emoji use
🚩 retweets self
🚩 once in a lifetime
Result: Rutgers by 12 😱
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Because I’m allowed to bet more than $5 on a PGA Outright winner… or more than $100 on an NFL side.
Cannot say the same for DK or BetMGM. Thanks for asking, though.
@CircaSports
Why would anyone bet with you when they can bet with reputable books who refund rodgers futures bets.
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Counting $5k deposit bonuses that no one else can get as part of your “profit” from a book to make a big number seem attainable to your customers when you’re selling a service is pretty shitty…
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When you have an opportunity to shield against an NFL total by overpaying for points, ya gotta take it…
Keep up the great work…
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If you’re a “sportsbook” and don’t allow rebets when you’ve continued to keep that same line for hours (and sometimes overnight) what the fuck are you doing?
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Gentle reminder that anyone can put “_NFL” in their Twitter @
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One of the things that I’ve struggled with since my poker days… the big losses hurt much more than the big wins feel good.
Very disproportionate. Haven’t been able to solve that one, yet.
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There are people in Gambling Twitter that primarily make their 💵 through betting… there are infinitely more that need your 💵 through selling picks or need your attention/engagement. While there are exceptions, I’d avoid those that NEED the latter. Choose wisely.
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You want to reword that comment? Maybe “For the people, provided you’re not a profitable sports bettor…”
This is why we love
@BetMGM
, they are the Sportsbook of the people🔥
@RyanHorvat
,
@Trysta_Krick
&
@NickAshooh
will help you find some winners on
@BetMGMTonight
, tune in NOW:
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This just in:
Any account having any, or all, of the following DOES NOT mean they necessarily have any idea what the fuck they’re talking about, especially with regards to sports betting:
-Blue check next to someone’s name
- 10k+ followers
-Media job with a sportsbook/network
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After being heavily engaged in this space last 2 years or so, I have a greater appreciation for ppl who are positive and act with integrity.
Refreshing to run into people who do their job w/a smile and try to add value to people’s lives as opposed to “what can I get for myself”
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Had my 2nd largest losing individual bet last week. I handled it better emotionally than my last one. Yesterday had a big day. After a big loss, check your process and if it’s good carry on. And make sure you’re considering bankroll management. Variance is a part of the deal.
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Not a good look
@PointsBetUSA
hanging a line on an NBA total, rejecting my bet and moving it a full 1.5 points. This is as bad as it gets for a “sportsbook”
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You giving some of the money back if that was an under and he goes out early?
Orrrrr you could not put someone in the parlay that has been hurt and on the injury report for a while now…
I wish these “requests” (ranging from a nice ask to entitled expectations) would stop…
Hopefully
@FDSportsbook
can pays out these slips with a Booker void as a Christmas gesture. That’s good business
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There is more than one approach to profiting betting sports. You don’t only have to do one thing. You can originate, bet based on line moves, bet props, or find stale/off
#s
. Don’t lock yourself into 1 approach. Lots of ways to place +EV bets. No need to leave $ on the table.
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FYI: Free plays from losing sports bettors are not free. Regardless of what they charge or what “record” they claim to have, it will cost you $$$.
If you’re going to put your $ behind someone, do a little homework. Find out if they track their plays on a platform like
@betstamp
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Take a look at how W% at -110 results in ROI. If you can add just one win per 100 games, look at the differences. Adds up over the long run. Get the best price possible for the position you like.
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Hoping for a nice little Sunday… going to post todays winner. You’re welcome!
NYJ-DEN u58.7.
Bought 21.7 points to shield against 43.6-15.1 finish.
Hoping to start this new journey 1-0!!!
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@strait_vibinn
@Mr618Worldwide
Any shot they can get Allen Robinsons props met too? Maybe make the game 44 quarters?
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Unfortunately if you’re counting on
@Josh_Insights
to lead you to a profitable NBA season, these 2 points ain’t it…
RLM & Betting % splits, esp. DK who boots most sharp action, is not predictive.
Claiming betting vs a 75% public play is value is so “boom, value” 💥 cringe
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It’s this… people tell on themselves quite hard on gambling Twitter… unfortunately most people don’t know how to tell the difference anyhow between the people who make money vs the people that grift.
Nothing quite sums up gambling twitter as well as a dude who sells picks for $3/day giving pointers to a dude who has a bankroll large enough to get down $220k. "If it was all math, shit would be easy" should go on merch for whatever shit site he works for.
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Took one sportsbetting video on TikTok for me to shut that shit down for the night. Literally each one of those morons with VIP outdoes the next. “We’re betting the Toronto Raptors today at +110. Lines been dropping all day. Have no idea why. Don’t care” GIANNIS IS OUT YOU MUTANT
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I’m grateful for connecting with a lot of great people in
#gamblingtwitter
. They’ve helped me grow/get better.
That said, there is a lot of sludge. Scumbags preying on people w/promises of 🔒 and easy 💰. Please think critically before paying them anything, or even following.
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Ah classic
#gamblingtwitter
Wk11 - 0-4; down on the season. *Crickets for a week
Wk12 - wins a total - “I’m the best in the world. How amazing am I?”
Same person - barely better than break even last 6 years…
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At -110, you must win 52.4% of your bets to break even.
At -115, it’s 53.4%
At -102, like what you might see at an exchange, you need to win 50.5%
Price matters. A LOT!
A break even bettor at -110 will have near 3.8% ROI at -102
(I’m traveling - please correct/forgive %)
I don’t care whether it’s unabated, betstamp, spankodds, donbest or your own. Using an odds screen to line shop is the easiest, most effective way for bettors to improve their results!!! 💻
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If someone is posting a record without some combination of ROI/net units… good chance they’re hiding something.
They might be buying points at bad prices, playing a lot of large favorites, or maybe not betting their stuff at all.
Careful who you follow. Check their
@betstamp
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Due to a very exciting opportunity I learned about in my DMs where I could be making up to $200/day in just one hour utilizing eBay…
I’ll be scaling back on the sports betting with the exception of buying points on totals and teasing through the 0. Thank you for understanding.
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Rovell also touting incentive based handicapping this week tells you all you should need to know about how much of an edge may exist there…
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It’s been a fantastic year. I’m honored and humbled by the results. Thank you to
@betstamp
for hosting a great platform. Great work by all listed! Here’s to a wonderful ‘22!
Presenting to you all…. Our TOP 5
#BetstampVerified
bettors of 2021!
Find all of these sharp bettors and more on
@betstampmarket
and give them a follow!
Happy New Year! 🥂
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Almost every year, leagues evolve and rules change. Being intellectually curious and evolving your process can keep you either ahead of the curve, or at least keep you at pace. Take note of your assumptions and measure results. An edge last year might not be there currently.
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I’m incredibly grateful for the opportunities afforded to me through sports betting. One of which is being able to afford to move to an area where I believe I’ll be happier.
That said - the process of moving sucks! So time intensive.
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3 of those years Kirk Cousins not on the team. Multiple different HCs and turnover in personnel. But hey let’s note something as most profitable that really is near meaningless data. Great work Action as always!
Since 2015, the Minnesota Vikings are 19-6 ATS at home after a SU loss (most profitable team in NFL) 👀
More Week 15 Sat. Trends & Notes:
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Now 2-0 on NFL Totals and the ONLY undefeated NFL Total bettor in the country!!
Wow, just WOW!!!
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So much to be grateful for. In a year’s time I’ve been fortunate enough to find a little success in this space. More people than I’d honestly imagine following the journey - near 700 on Twitter and near 400
@betstamp
. Thank you all for help and support along the way! YTD below
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I have to be transparent. It has been a rough Xmas day to bring 2022 near its close.
I haven’t acquired a single syndicate this year AND Santa left no Tom Brady signed memorabilia to pay for picks!
Luckily I still have Primers and TikToks to show me the way!
Merry Christmas!
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Apparently I hit over 800 followers. Hard to believe honestly. Thank you for the support. Super grateful. Just setup an Instagram account if anyone is interested - CliveBixby41. Best of luck.
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What to do when having a rough month of results? Go get chick-fil-a breakfast, eat your feelings, and get back to work.
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If a person is charging $30/week for picks with a 1% ROI for the year AND hasn’t updated tracking since July, do you really think it’s a good investment?
IF you’re going to pay for picks, do some homework to understand the math to turn a profit. Will you even get their #? Think
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Clive Bixby the SPORTS BETTOR?? - Ep 54 via
@YouTube
Awesome time on the
@CirclesOff
Podcast. Thanks Johnny and
@robpizzola
for having me!
@betstamp
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FUCK! Where will I get my Insights now… especially Market Insights! 🥺
When someone blocks you for calling out bullshit like selling public bet % data FROM DK - all signs point to Scumbaggery
# 🗑
# 🤡
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I’m reading through Twitter and see another garbage tout service… sprauger chart aside, if you’re paying $600/month to any service that has no verified records, and also they do ZERO record keeping at all, that’s on you. Don’t care how many followers or podcasts they do. Means 0
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Morgan Freeman narrator voice: “but it was not a 49% edge…”
Live total is 212.5… maybe, JUST MAYBE 49% edges don’t exist on a CBB total…
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Wow. 500 people are following me for some strange reason. Hope I can add some value along the way. Cheers!
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This didn’t take long. Tell me again how beating the closing line doesn’t matter when that’s how books mainly profile customers?
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Up super early for my flight home… recorded first episode of Forward Progress last night with
@robpizzola
that will be released this morning from
@TheHammerHQ
Think it went well and should be informative for anyone getting ready for week 2
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If you’re just looking to have fun, be part of a community or confirmation to bet or not to bet without expectation to win, so be it.
Using bet splits as any part of your betting strategy, especially 50k bets averaging $28, is not something that’s likely to lead to long term $$$
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First two Tik Toks of the day I saw on sports betting were two pieces of horrendous advice on “strategies”... Be careful who you follow for betting advice. Vet them before putting any plays behind their “advice”
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@VSiNLive
@Josh_Insights
Really VSINLive… this is where you’re at?
You now have to hide replies from people who have a clue what is actionable like
@PlusEVAnalytics
because you know these articles have next to no value. Straight up 🗑️
Do better
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@robpizzola
Birds of a feather… integrity is a rare trait in this space when you can fool and grift those who are inexperienced and desperate to win
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All sorts of Gambling Twitter feuds building last few days… no one is safe
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Twitter is the right place for you if you’re looking for a statistic in a vacuum that supports your argument devoid of all other context
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I don’t know if this is parody or satire or whatever the fuck…
I don’t care enough to try to figure it out so I’ll just say that this sentiment is pure 🗑️
Free to do what y’all like with your $ but this line of thinking will not result in profitable bets.
#Desperatecontent
💩
@SharpClarkeNFL
I said it was a public lure. I look for ways where the books can try to persuade the public into betting a certain side. When you see one of the lowest totals is season for the Bills, the public would hop all over it (also, a ton of money came I on over, but number didnt move).
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Twitter in a nutshell… the loudest are at a 1 on the curve.
High amounts of confidence in low amounts of information is a recipe for disaster.
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2K
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Money won is twice as sweet as money earned - Color of Money
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PRO TIP: when you’re having a terrible season, extend your win-loss record to an arbitrary time frame where it’ll look good in isolation.
Expert level: filter even tighter to Sunday games, as an example if it knocks off a few losses.
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@lasvegascris
That’s behind a paywall?
Either way, anyone following Rovell in general is just asking for pain…
Most of what I’ve seen from him is just a desperate need for clicks and attention.
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What an absolutely low class, weak move after tweeting at me… when all you write is fiction I guess the truth hits you too hard in the face. Guess he didn’t read that script first.
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If you’re blindly looking to Bette Midler, Barbara Streisand and/or Neil Young for cues/direction on what is best for society, you’re doing it wrong
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Joe continues to reinforce that having “NFL” in your handle does not give you credibility… and still desperately desires attention. Keep up the great scouting!!
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And 0-4 today…
Gotta love Action Network and Bet Labs… probably just unlucky
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This just in… if you tail or fade a coin flipper… you still lose
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As a whole, I like to think I express gratitude for the situation I am in. Every once in a while, I come across something that snaps it even more into focus how lucky I am.
Thank you to all that have helped me when they didn’t have to while also expecting nothing in return.
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Here's a chart of what I see for W% vs. the opening number based on line moves when looking at CBB Totals. Bars = # of Games. Example: betting opener and getting 2 points of value vs the total has resulted in a 61% win rate.
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Watch out for the people of
#gamblingtwitter
who only chirp after a win and are silent/unaccountable after a loss…
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@grpwins
Here’s an offer:
You tell me what team you want to bet, the current line and for how much. 10 minutes before the game, I get to decide if I want to take the bet or not at the line you bet at.
Deal?
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LOL I honestly have no idea what I said…
Somehow I don’t think I’m blocked from subscribing. The advertising sure finds its way to me.
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If you’re subscribing to anyone’s VIP who defines value ONLY as the price you’re paying has be under “x” number, please reevaluate your choices…
Give me -200 regularly when it should be priced -300 and I’ll pay off my first syndicate.
These kind of blanket statements are so silly. Absolute amateur hour. If you actively choose to not lay more than -140 because you believe that there is no value you are only kidding yourself. Value can be had at ANY odds relative to what you make the true price.
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Probably was meant to be an internal email instead of a tweet:
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As NFL Week 1 Sunday approaches, here’s a recommendation if you don’t have a strong modeling background and you’d like to get better at finding +EV bets:
Start by signing up w/
@UnabatedSports
for their free odds screen if you don’t have one already. It’s a great resource
(1/5)
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What does it mean? Will save you a click… Absolutely nothing.
Updated DraftKings NFL Bettings Splits Systems article now posted on
@VSiNLive
. Seven games have 70%+ majorities on the point spreads, what does it mean?...
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Last week or so I’ve tried to take a break from analysis and betting. I may have missed a few opportunities to get better numbers than I got today. Ultimately, for me, I think what I lost in EV was made up for in peace of mind. In terms of breaks, try to do what is right for you
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If ever there was a HOF for tweets that publicly indicated a person has zero integrity… this gets in first ballot, unanimously.
It’s not
@real_fats
job to offer anything in return when you give him a freeroll.
If this guy pivots to selling anything, please never give him a $.
@real_fats
@bet_bash
You offered and risked nothing to the Silly agreement. I just needed you for publicity. I’m tired of picking games but I’m getting excited about the new Prop markets. You buy your own ticket to BB3.
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This part about being clear about just gambling and admitting to being a losing bettor, I can respect.
Let's get something straight people:
I'm not a professional handicapper. I don't go by the book. I like to gamble and I am down on the year so far. I have gambled on sports just about every day of my life since i turned 18. I can read lines and see stories.
Unfollow if you like
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I must be tired… my willpower to not respond to people who know nothing while pretending to be experts is lower than usual.
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PSA: if you flip a coin 10 times and it hits heads 6 of those… your next flip is not a 60% chance of heads… the absolute delusion out there never ceases to amaze me. Beware of the desperate…
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Quote of day leader in the clubhouse:
Tony Romo: “Gus Edwards is a special back”
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@SharpFootball
Never underestimate the ability for Joe Buck to say something beyond ridiculous
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So much I appreciate in this article. Highly recommended reading if you are an aspirational sports bettor that wants to understand solid mental approaches. In my opinion, this aspect so often is underrated, or ignored completely at worse.
Ever wonder what it takes to become a Professional Sports Bettor?
@capjack2000
explored the mental makeup of a professional bettor in this article. 🤔
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Study and learn how to read the sports betting markers.
Regardless if you are originating or steam chasing, understanding the market perceptions of teams from a side and total perspective, can help you get better prices on the position you want.
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One thing we know for sure is the sports book never posts a bad number to start—they want action on both sides from the public. What you don’t want to happen is take the 7.5, and the Bears lose by 8 or 9, making the original number correct.
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@Mr618Worldwide
@3YearLetterman
I thought Muhammad Ali invented the SEC by defeating Joe Frazier
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@greerreNFL
@SFSportsAndTech
Little disingenuous to conflate bad snaps with what most consider a “fumble”
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@robpizzola
BUT ON THE ROAD?!?!
Minnesota was 8-1 Rob. 8-1!!!
PFT had them
#1
as THE power ranked team. That type of work can’t be dismissed…
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If you listen to no other betting content this week, there is some very important betting insight from about 40 minutes forward.
@robpizzola
gives a lot of info about how to approach news based betting opportunities.
This week,
@robpizzola
, cofounder of
@betstamp
and cohost of
@CirclesOff
, joins the show to discuss his decade of losing, becoming a successful bettor, the role Twitter had in his journey, and how thoughtful content might fit in a space looking for picks.
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Zylbo advocating for his dream persona/life goal of being Rovell on buying points for NFL totals should tell you all you need to know.
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Have to be down bad and desperate to release a play buying down to a -145 line on an NFL total…
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