CannaVestments
@CannaVestments
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Private Family Office- US Cannabis investor since 2014 #MSOgang
Joined April 2021
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@RepNancyMace
You just elected a Speaker who opposes gay marriage, legal cannabis, and the right to abortion and you're lecturing about personal freedoms... get off your soapbox 🤡
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Married the love of my life over the weekend. Infinitely grateful for this wonderful journey we call life 🙏
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Consistency is the name of the game at
@GTIGrows
, with stable margins, moderate growth, and controlled OpEx here in Q3. 11 quarters in a row of beating consensus rev (just barely here), 7 quarters in a row of positive operational cash flow, 5 quarters in a row positive net income
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With the majority of Q3 earnings in the books, I updated 2023 YTD tax-adjusted OCF and aEBITDA conversion rates for major US operators. While not universal, improvements in cash flow in '23 has been a consistent trend as companies have cut costs and right-sized operations
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Impressive showing from
@veranocannabis
- despite the miss on top-line revenue growth, underlying margin improvement was well beyond expectations. For some context, the 54% adj EBIDTA margins were north of the gross margins reported by peers like Cresco, Cura, and Columbia Care:
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2022 Q1-Q3 Tax-Adjusted Operating Cash Flow:
GTI: $80.8M
MRMD: $10.4M
TILT: $7.7M
VEXT: $2.9M*
P13: $2.3M
CURA: $2.2M*
VRNO: -$390k
SHWZ: -$5.5M
TRUL: -$7.3M
MAPS: -$10.5M
CL: -$19.1M
ACRG: -$35.1M
GLASF: -$35.9M
AYR: -$38.6M
AWH: -$40.2M
TER: -$42.9M
TPCO: -$58.3M
CC: -$95.9M
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Some figures I keep an eye on:
Q1 Operational Cash Flow (w/ income tax payable adjustment):
Ascend Wellness: -$17.85M
Columbia Care: -$32.9M
Cresco Labs: -$19.5M
Curaleaf: +$13.59M
Green Thumb: +$24.1M
Terrascend: -$23.7M
Trulieve: +$2.9M
Verano: +$4.5M
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It's shocking how the ultra-wealthy have convinced the average american to constantly fight policies that will never affect them. There are 10,660 estimated Americans that have more than $100M- don't worry, this unrealized gains tax proposal will never affect 99.99997% of you
Just in: Kamala Harris backs a 45% tax on capital gains
And a 25% tax on unrealized gains for high-net-worth individuals
Wow.
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I hope CannaTwitter directs as much criticism towards Youngkin as they do towards states like NY and Cali. A republican governor just single-handedly blocked an adult-use initiative approved by both the VA house and senate, and by the majority of Virginia residents
BIG YIKES: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) vetoed a bill that would have legalized recreational marijuana sales.
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Often overlooked items on balance sheets: inventory build and income tax payable/deferred taxes. Some dramatic differences between companies:
Columbia Care:
-Inventory Q4 2020: $111.5M
-Inventory Q3 2021: $170.4M
-Income Tax Payable: $29.98M
-Deferred tax liability: $69.8M
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2022 Tax-Adjusted Operating Cash Flow:
GTI: $163.8M
MRMD: $12.3M
SHWZ: $6.1M
VEXT: $5.9M
P13: $3.8M
TRUL: $3.3M
GRIN: $2.0M
VRNO: -$1.8M
FFNFT: -$3.8M
GDNSF: -$18.1M
CRLBF: -$28.0M
JUSHF: -$34.7M
AWH: -$36.9M
TER: -$40.7M
GLASF: -$41.5M
AYR: -$51.3M
TPCO: -$71.8M
CCHW: -$118.8M
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Love that
@tilray
admits that the 2024 FCF+ guidance they've been pushing almost a year now was entirely contingent upon "asset sales" and not actually generating positive cash flow from operations.... a "small" detail they conveniently left out.
@IrwinDSimon
is a charlatan
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Now that Q2 earnings season is largely complete, some resounding themes imo:
1) Top-line revenue growth remains impressive for the large MSOs, with beats on consensus estimates across the board (GTI/CL with the largest beats, but also TRUL/Verano/CURA/Acreage/Harv).
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So looks like 2 dispensaries for Acreage, 1 for Ascend, 2 for Columbia Care, 2 for Curaleaf, 2 for GTI, 2 for Terrascend, and 2 for Verano in this initial list of dispensary approvals.
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Strong start to the Q4 earnings season from
@GTIGrows
with revenue and margin expansion ahead of expectations, continued CF generation, further share buy-backs, and debt pay-down. With CapEx set to reduce in 24' and exposure to key growth states, lots of opportunities ahead:
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13 senate committees ✅
15 house committees ✅
Full House vote ✅
Full Senate vote - ✅
Reconciliation between house and Senate bills- ✅
Governor signs bill- this week!
🙏🙏
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-Missed on aEBITDA ($14M vs $10M)
-Missed on rev ($195M v $194M)
-Gross Margins declined further to 24%
-Operational cash flow worsened to a burn of $30M
But they delivered "record" revenue by diluting shareholders through non-accretive M&A 👍
Tilray Brands Delivers Record Q2 Fiscal 2024 Net Revenue.
Learn more $TLRY
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Tax-adj OCF H1 2022:
Verano: $38.1M
GTI: $34.9M
Cura: $25.4M
MRMD: $8.4M
P13: $1.2M
FFNT: -$1.9M
TRUL: -$6.6M
CL: -$21.5M
Glass: -$25.3M
AYR: -$26.7M
AWH: -$28.4M
TER: -$35M
TPCO: -$46.4M
CCHW: -$61.7M
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Blow out quarter from
@GTIGrows
in Q3 with a huge beat on consensus, consistent CF generation, and continued reinvestment in the business as GTI consistently positions themselves ahead of growth opportunities, most recently seen in Maryland
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Standout showing from
@GTIGrows
in Q1 w/ results ahead of consensus, improved margins and record CF generation. Opportunities abound w/ leading positions in near-term AU markets in Ohio (start Q3 24') and Minnesota (start ~March 25'), and potentially FL/PA down the line
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Good but mixed results from GTI here, with an 11th straight beat on consensus rev, but a dip in operating margins as pre-rev CapEx spend and well-documented price compression in key markets weighed on profitability metrics. My thoughts:
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Blowout quarter from
@Trulieve
to start the year- good growth well ahead of expectations, significant margin expansion, and improved tax-adjusted CF on the back of strong retail sales as the company continues to fortify their position ahead of the November AU ballot in Florida
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Impressive Q2 showing from
@veranobrands
, with results ahead of consensus, strong margins, and most importantly - positive OCF and FCF generation while paying taxes down. Tax-adjusted OCF was +44.7M in Q2 and now $66.6M YTD! And all with AU sales in MD still to come-
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Was on vacation for the last few Q2 earnings so finally got around to updating my H1 23 tax-adjusted OCF and aEBITDA conversion chart. See previous posting for description and commentary
With the first round of MSO earnings reports in, calculated tax-adjusted OCF figures for all major operators in Q1/Q2, and also calculated their H1 2023 conversion of tax-adjusted OCF to aEBITDA:
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Efficiency improvements and good cost controls continued into Q1 for
@crescolabs
. Despite little top-line growth over the past 3 years now, Cresco has optimized the footprint to improve margins and enhance CF, with Ohio rec sales in June offering opportunity to return to growth
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Lots of companies banking on successful 280e challenges, while the IRS directly says that it still applies. The legal challenge likely takes years is my understanding... big questions over what companies should do with the cash in the interim (chart from Needham)
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An impressive showing from
@Trulieve
who maintained industry-leading margins despite the ramp up of several new markets (MA/PA/WV) and price competition in FL. Harv did have a weaker Q, but the combined entity is set for dramatic growth across multiple markets going into Q4/2022:
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As an investor, evaluating capital markets prowess of my holdings is always top of mind. Following
@Trulieve
's most recent raise, every large MSO has completed equity raises in 2021 offering an opportunity to evaluate who best timed the market to minimize shareholder dilution:
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The clearest indicator I've seen that enforcement measures in NY are working. Adult-use sales went from $46M in May to $71M in June with just 1 new store opened in that time (113 stores currently open). An $852M annual-run rate as of June $GTBIF $CURLF
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May 2025 start date the big negative but like to see a reasonable tax rate (9%). Also a nice opportunity for existing medical operators who will be allowed to open 5 new stores (so 11 total stores per license). Now we need Gov Yongkin to agree! $CBST $GTBIF $JUSHF
Compromise Bill To Legalize Marijuana Sales In Virginia Passes Out Of House Committee: "The Senate and House are on the cusp of sending the governor legislation which will create a retail marijuana market in a very responsible and thoughtful way."
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Strong Q2 showing from
@GTIGrows
- margin expansion, results ahead of expectations, positive net income, further share buy-backs, continued cash generation while paying taxes and all with further growth drivers ahead (most notably in Ohio today with the start of AU sales)
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IL Dec sales came in at a record $173.3M (a $2.08B annual run-rate) with $137.9M in rec and $35.4 in medical sales. All while we are stuck with just 110 retail stores in the state with 185 new retail still held up by lawsuits 1.5years later. Lots of runway ahead
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Strong Q3 from
@veranobrands
with margin expansion beyond expectations, good growth and cost control, and continued cash-flow generation driven by new rec sales in MD and strong CPG growth in NJ and CT. Props to the team for the new state-level disclosures!
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A solid showing from
@crescolabs
- despite the shortfall in top-line growth, the underlying profitability improvement made up for it IMO. The large impairment charge likely clouds the results, but OpEx control, margin expansion, and move into positive OCF are all positives here
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The games played by
@tilray
to arrive at "positive adjusted free cash flow" is comical. A reminder to always read financial statements, and not just press releases
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First MSO review of the Q2 earnings season for the world's largest cannabis company
@Curaleaf_Inc
. Strong Q2 showing with huge top-line growth and minor margin expansion, while elevated OpEx and a very negative OCF are the areas to look out for imo.
#MSOgang
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Note I didn't include CL because they haven't released full fins. GTI and TRUL stand out here- relatively low inventory for companies of their size (meaning they are selling most of what they produce) and they are paying their taxes! Makes current cash flow even more impressive
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Absolutely massive opportunity for
@GTIGrows
and $GDNSF. Co-location at 8 current stores and will be vertical unlike most of the market. $GTII just spent considerable capex on their facility expansion. Start date early 2025
Minnesota lawmakers greenlight new marijuana business rules
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The unfortunate reality:
Can someone just tell Curaleaf to follow Trulieve’s lead?
I thought the TSX was supposed to have a positive impact…
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So appears to be small private operators for the majority of winners in the Ohio retail lottery. Public winners:
1) Marimed- 1 retail in Tiffin, OH
2) Trulieve- 1 retail in Columbus, OH
3) Audacious (Aurora Spinout)- 1 retail in Piqua
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Solid showing from
@crescolabs
in Q2- as has been the case for awhile, Cresco has countered a lack of growth by optimizing assets, reducing costs, driving up margins, and ultimately enhancing CF. OH rec sales in H2 and potentially FL in 2025 are set to finally drive the top-line
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An unfortunately weak start to MSO Q3 earnings season, with
@Curaleaf_Inc
posting big misses on consensus Rev/EBIDTA. Weakness in mature markets out west, slower growth in the Midwest/Northeast, and a huge price war in FL all contributing to slower growth and weaker margins vs Q2
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Had incredible meetings with a number of portfolio companies yesterday. Some resounding takeaways:
-Don’t bet against 🇺🇸 cannabis
-Still early innings
-Indoor>Greenhouse
-Experience, scale, and access to capital is the name of the game
-Institutions are waiting at the gate
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Highly recommend a listen here- great interview from my friend Manish with
@veranocannabis
CEO
@GeorgeArchos
. Unlock-talk is temporary noise imo, all about the business at the end of the day and the business is sound.
#2nd
largest position
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Arguably more meaningful that what Schumer presented today given it actually will go through. New wealth created and 190 new wholesale partners for the big boys
@GTIGrows
@crescolabs
@veranobrands
@AscendHoldings
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.
NY quietly hit a $552M annual run-rate with $46.2M sold in May. Not a game-changer like Ohio but from my view there are only 3 real indoor operators in the state currently selling adult-use (GTI, CURA, Pharmacann w/ Riv perhaps later).
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Interesting to see how far EBIDTA estimates have fallen across the board just this year (having already fallen in 2021 quite a lot), particularly for Tier 2 MSOs. Analyst have clearly taken into account the dramatic price compression we've seen this year
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Really good podcast on the upcoming rec market in Ohio. Continue to feel like the potential opportunity here flies under the radar, looking a lot like IL back in 2020 and likely even better than what Maryland offerred earlier this year. Some highlights:
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Potential June/July start date 👀
SCOOP: Ohio's rulemaking committee is set to approve regulations allowing recreational marijuana sales as soon as June.
JCARR's chair, weed-enthusiast Rep. Jamie Callender, says the policy will be accepted next month.
@WEWS
@WCPO
@OhioCapJournal
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Went back on the CIN podcast for a high level overview of the big 5 MSOs- how they each performed during the soft Q4/Q1, what we can expect in Q2 and beyond, and how we like them at their current prices. Tldr: cautiously optimistic!
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280e challenge confirmed from $GDNSF, and noted they will be filing for refunds for 2020-22. Legal argument is that legal intrastate businesses are not subject to 280e. No mention of med vs rec, solely a state's rights argument
Looks like $GDNSF is joining others in challenging their 280e obligations- moving their outstanding income tax payable to an uncertain tax position
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Cura and Verano stand out on the opposite side of the spectrum- fairly substantial inventory builds (not saying this is an issue necessarily, but we've seen what excess inventory in Canada leads to) and are deferring lots of their taxes. Current cash flow likely overstated then
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With the majority of Q3 earnings reports in (only a few smaller players outstanding), can look at CapEx spend amongst public operators for 2023 relative to the past 2 years. Some notes:
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With the first round of MSO earnings reports in, calculated tax-adjusted OCF figures for all major operators in Q1/Q2, and also calculated their H1 2023 conversion of tax-adjusted OCF to aEBITDA:
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2.5hrs of cannabis talk with my friend Manish of the Cannabis Investing Network podcast. General market overview, Q1 discussions for the big 5, highlights from our recent meetings with various MSO management teams, and lots of state by state discussion
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Breakout Q3 showing for
@terrascendcorp
with growth and margin expansion exceeding expectations, while holdings costs flat. TER highlighted strength across multiple markets, with the onset of rec sales in MD leading the way. Inflecting to sustained tax-adj CF is the next step
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"Year of the Core" paying dividends for
@crescolabs
in Q3 as the company overcame top-line decline by enhancing margins and reducing costs, leading to enhance CF in the Q. Maintaining this operating efficiency will be key while they await for adult-use conversions in OH/PA/FL
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Stronger Dec results in most states, but Q4 definitely looking soft, particularly on the west coast. Some rough napkin math vs Q3:
-PA down 2.3%
-OR down 9%
-NV down 13%
-MA up 1%
-MD up 2%
-IL up 8%
-FL down 1.1%
-CO down 6%
-CA down 6%
-AZ down 1.5%
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For those interested, I went back on the CIN podcast to cover the big 5 MSOs' results through the first quarter of 2023. Big focus was on market footprints and diving deep into cash flow dynamics and balance sheet strength
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Good work 🇨🇦🍁, let’s keep up the momentum tomorrow
Final tally on what is likely the best day for $MSOS's underlying basket in 🇨🇦 on a 🇺🇸holiday:
Intrinsic Value = $8.81 (closed Fri. $8.20)
US$23M notional traded
9 underlyings up double digits:
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Trying out the new flavors from
@drinkcann
@GTIGrows
for NYE- Yuzu Elderflower and Cranberry Sage. Cheers to the Cannabis Twitter community 🙌🎉🙏 despite the 2021 stumbles, grateful for everything and excited for 2022 🚀
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Went back on the Cannabis Investing Network podcast last week for a combined Q2/Q3 review of the big 5 MSOs. While the capital markets burn and legislative actions falls flat, underlying fundamentals are more important than ever
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Q4 from
@Trulieve
largely below expectations, with market price compression, inventory management, and right-sizing of capacity limiting top-line growth and squeezing margins. Initial steps towards better cash flow management were visible in Q4, but more needed in 2023.
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GTI just dropped the 🔥 full review incoming
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Likely the strongest showing of the Q1 earnings season from
@Trulieve
, posting a beat on both revenue and EBIDTA. GMs returned to impressive levels and cash flow turned back positive as TRUL continued to execute in FL and gained wholesale share in PA:
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Went back on the CIN podcast for an H1 2024 review- Q1/Q2 financial analysis, high-level trends, and state market upside dissection for $GTBIF $TCNNF $CRLBF $VRNOF $CURLF
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Going on 2 years now of beating consensus estimates,
@GTIGrows
posts a strong Q2 with the largest rev beat of the earnings season. Minor margin contraction on GMs/adj EBIDTA but at strong levels relative to peers. Lots to be excited about-IL/PA/NV/MA now, NJ/CT/NY/VA/FL/OH/MD next
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Steady-as-she-goes from
@GTIGrows
in Q1. While revenue was slightly behind consensus, margin profile and CF were both ahead. Strong profitability and a lean BS continue to prove valuable as GTI continues to put money into the business organically while others are pulling back
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Updated 2023 YTD CapEx spend for major public MSOs. While not universal to every operator, the trend of continued CapEx reductions in the US cannabis industry has been notable as capital dried up, companies over-levered, and overall growth slowed
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@BCobblaw
You're really stretching on these political takes lately. This is infinitely preferable to the endless political figures constantly using their insider information to get an advantage in the market, or say a presidential candidate beholden to middle eastern money 🙄
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As a correction, it appears GTI did not see any cash tax benefit from the impairment taken in Q4 according to Stifel (and as others have pointed out). Makes the $70M in Q4 OCF and $159M in 2022 OCF very impressive
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Biggest winners by far though IMO are the 22 Tier 1 Cultivators (25k canopy cap initially, now 50k) who will see their potential wholesale customers more than double from the current 57 dispensaries to 130 total:
>GTI, Columbia Care, Cresco, Acreage, Cura
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Don't think it's coincidence that
@GTIGrows
and
@Curaleaf_Inc
have both moved towards the max of 3 AU stores in NY (paying the fee for each) at the same time as illicit store crackdowns have accelerated with sales on the rise
The clearest indicator I've seen that enforcement measures in NY are working. Adult-use sales went from $46M in May to $71M in June with just 1 new store opened in that time (113 stores currently open). An $852M annual-run rate as of June $GTBIF $CURLF
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@GTIGrows
starts off earnings season with a good but slightly mixed Q4. The bad: margin decline and an asset impairment drove EPS negative. The good: rev/adj ebidta both ahead of consensus, while OCF reached an all-time high further securing a strong BS with many catalysts ahead:
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Would love to know how the
@cann_company
and
@Nicholas_Vita
justify this level of executive compensation for a company with such mediocre execution....
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Bravo Florida 🙏 cannabis and abortion rights 2/2
There you have it. Fla Supreme Court lets recreational marijuana amendment and abortion rights amendment on the ballot.
But on same day the court has upheld Fla's existing 15-week ban on abortion, which means a six-week ban will soon come into law ....
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Some Thanksgiving listening for everyone- Q3 reviews of the big 5 MSOs with my friend Manish at the Cannabis Investing Network 🦃🙏
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Fyi in Mexico city for a friend's bachelor party. Trul/Verano reviews likely a bit delayed due to margarita consumption
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Team at schwazze just out here making up new definitions for free cash flow by removing interest expense from the equation... Good quarter but lets be real.
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2022 aEBIDTA to tax-adjusted OCF conversion:
GTI: 52.6%
GRUSF: 39.2%
VEXT: 39.1%
MRMD: 37.9%
SHWZ: 11.7%
CURA: 11.7%
CNTMF: 6.0%
TRUL: 0.8%
VRNO: -0.5%
4Front: -13.9%
CL: -16.2%
AWH: -39.6%
AYR: -59.1%
TER: -93.8%
ACRG: -144.8%
CC: -176.4%
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Existing medical cannabis dispensaries would be converted into dual licensees at the same time that legalization takes effect on July 1 if they’ve paid a fee. Regulators would need to start approving additional marijuana business licenses by July 1, 2024.
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Just got back from a 10 day vacation in Greece. I assume nothing exciting happened in the world of cannabis, right?
/s
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@tilray
continues to be a shining example of how easy it is to mislead the investor community and press alike with a PR:
-Mentions 20% yoy growth, leaving out that this year includes the combined Tilray+ Aphria. No mention of big QOQ drop or actual YOY drop of legacy operations
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This is huge- only 110 dispensaries in IL currently. Massive unmet demand across the state
@GTIGrows
@crescolabs
@veranobrands
@AscendHoldings
@Curaleaf_Inc
185 Illinois adult use dispensary licenses might finally, officially be awarded this Friday
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I have an immediate distrust for companies who don't have a direct PDF download of their financial statements on their website and force me to use the labyrinth that is the SEDAR interface
#DoBetter
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Cannabis industry has entered the chat
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A solid but somewhat mixed showing from
@veranobrands
in Q1. Results were largely in-line with the reduced guidance they gave in Q4, margins were stable, but OpEx elevated with new store openings. CF still strong with Ohio AU on the horizon, and potentially FL/PA down the line
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Echelon's key markets in 2022: CT (adult-use sales starting), Minnesota (Flower/Edibles introduced), New Jersey (adult-use sales starting), New York (flower introduced), Ohio (retail count going 2x and grow capacity limits increased), and VA (flower introduced).
@GTIGrows
6/6
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As we saw with
@crescolabs
switch from IFRS to GAAP back in Q4 2020 (adj EBIDTA re-stated from $49.5M down to $30M), the change can have dramatic changes to operating margins. Credit to
@Invest420
for pointing out a similar stat for
@ColumbiaCare
who is also making the switch
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As a follow-up, I added in 21/22' CapEx for most public MSOs. As expected given capital constraints and pivots towards profitability, CapEx spend amongst the 26 public operators listed below dropped dramatically into 2023:
2021: $1.56B
2022: $1.15B
2023: $453.8M (through Q3)
Updated 2023 YTD CapEx spend for major public MSOs. While not universal to every operator, the trend of continued CapEx reductions in the US cannabis industry has been notable as capital dried up, companies over-levered, and overall growth slowed
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Another strong quarter from
@Trulieve
in Q2: results well ahead of consensus, further margin expansion to multi-year highs, and solid tax-adjusted cash flow with the largest single catalyst in company-history potentially ahead of them with the FL adult-use ballot in November
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