Tony Carvalho (THE ACCOUNTANT)
@CPAinNYC
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Providing Tesla Financial Data & Analysis. $TSLA Shareholder
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I modified my X name.
Still 'The Accountant' . .
. . but I've now added my name and pic.
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Met a man at NYC Tesla showroom today who had never heard of the Cybertruck until today. He spotted the CT from the window and came right in to see it. He wanted to order one and asked the Tesla associate if he could have it delivered by year-end. The associate told him that
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TESLA CHINA DELIVERIES
#Tesla
China registrations in 3rd week of Nov were 14.4k bringing Q4 deliveries to 55.1k through Nov 20. Already the highest total for the first 2 months of any prior quarter.
At this pace, $TSLA could deliver >75k cars in the first 2 months of Q4.
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Tesla Energy comes in with highest margins ever at 24.6%.
$TSLA
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FSD Beta NA Wide Release Estimated Financial Impact
In addition to the $922m deferred revenue recognition upside ($0.26 EPS), $TSLA may now recognize 100% of revenue on all new purchases of FSD in NA (60% previously). This adds $0.04 to Q4 EPS & approximately $0.20 EPS to FY'23
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My thoughts on Zach Kirkhorn moving on:
"Good for Him"
I've been a CFO and its a grind. Zach is not just a CFO, he is the CFO of Tesla a high growth, high intensity company. There's little room for your personal life.
Just shy of 40 and with $100m net worth, it's time to live. I
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$TSLA entering Free Cash Flow S-Curve
Correcting this chart from an earlier tweet.
Axis listed 2022; it should have been 2023
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Tesla Megapack - Sold Out Until Q3 2024.
Sales will be dependent on how quickly $TSLA can produce them. Lathrop CA facility currently ramping.
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The benefits of paying down debt. $TSLA enters 2023 with an excellent balance sheet. In fact, they are earning more on their cash investments than the interest exp on their debt.
In Q4 2022:
+ $157m Interest Income
- $ 33m Interest Expense
= $124m Net Interest Inc/Exp
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Purchased Apple.
Sold it when it doubled.
Missed 10 bagger.
Purchased Amazon.
Sold it when it doubled.
Missed 10 bagger.
Purchased Tesla.
Held it.
Got my 10 bagger. Sold some to enjoy life.
There may be another 10 bagger from here. $TSLA
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Why is there not more media attention to this debacle? I have a hunch that if the companies involved were in the reverse positions (SpaceX in trouble with Boeing coming to the rescue), this would be the leading news story every day.
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I'm sharing this analysis to start a discussion around the $TSLA price cut impact on 2023. I have used US Model Y LR sales in this scenario.
My analysis shows that the 20% drop in price still provides a 60% increase in margin profit.
Thoughts?
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With wait time declining, $TSLA Customer Deposits should be down, right?
Turns out that they're up 17%, despite deliveries being up 45% this yr.
When deposits are up, orders are growing faster than deliveries. Perhaps wait times are⬇️not from lack of orders but from production⬆️
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$7,500 incentive offered by $TSLA 2 days ago generates immediate drop in available inventory.
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credit of $7,500 arrives Jan 1st.
Is this a signal on the demand the IRA will bring?
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Tesla’s Overlooked Catalyst for 2023: Energy & Services Margins
Q2’22 was the first time
#Tesla
’s Energy & Services segments both showed positive gross margins in the same quarter — this was repeated in Q3.
These segments are positioned nicely to bolster $TSLA 2023 EPS.
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Zack on $TSLA Q3 earnings call:
". .we have begun to smooth the regional builds throughout the quarter to reduce our peak needs for outbound logistics . .this means that you should expect a gap between prod and deliveries in Q4, and cars in transit will be delivered shortly in Q1
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In 2019 $TSLA shares were at $18.
At that time, many believed that:
- Tesla would not scale the Model 3
- Tesla would not be profitable
- Tesla would not be cash flow positive
- Shanghai was a mistake (a mud field)
- Tesla would never introduce another new model
- 2 new
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🤔 Nothing in the headline tells me this is a beat or miss. Just reporting the facts with no color. Hmmm.
$TSLA
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Two weeks ago, Tesla FSD 12.3 drove me from lower Manhattan NY to Greenwich CT with no interventions/no disengagements during rush hour. Amazing what tech we have available to us today.
When someone complains about one small error made by 12.3, it reminds me of this clip. $TSLA
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Even with the $7,500 discount for the final weeks of 2022, Model Y LR pricing is still 10% higher than this time last year. $TSLA knows pricing.
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Last year in Q2 2022, there was a step change in Energy margins (a jump to 11.2%).
This Q2, there is another step change with Energy margins (a jump to 18.4%).
We're going to have to pay attention to Energy!
$TSLA
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Now three consecutive quarters delivering positive margins for both the Energy and Services segments.
$TSLA finished the year strongly here.
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From 2004 to 2020, $TLSA had accumulated losses of $5.4B. Over the next 7 quarters,
#Tesla
generated profits of $14.6B taking accumulated losses since inception from ($5.4B) to accumulated earnings of $9.2B as of Q3 2022.
#TeslaProfits
@bradsferguson
@Holgerdanske9
@KoguanLeo
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In the past, Tesla consistently had more interest expense paid than interest income received. That flipped in a year ago and now in Q3 2023, Tesla netted 244m in net interest income. $TSLA 💪
$282m - Q3 Interest Income
$(38m) - Q3 Interest Expense
$244m - Q3 Net
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Over the past 2 yrs,
#Tesla
has judiciously used Cash from Operations to invest in assets (e.g. Factories, Superchargers, etc.) and pay down debt taking what was left over to build their cash balance.
Now with debt nearly fully paid, $TSLA's cash balance will grow faster.
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Annual Revenue per Employee has increased at $TSLA from $530k in 2020 to $718K in 2022.
This is one component driving operating leverage.
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Nice to see this reconfirmed. 10k Megapack units per year equates to 39 GWh of storage.
As a reference, in the past 12 mths to Sep '22, $TSLA has delivered 5GWh (this includes Powerwalls as well). Moving from 5GWh to 39+GWh will have a very positive impact on the financial stmts.
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Now 18 vessels to EUR from Shanghai in Q4.
Seems
#19
arriving shortly.
Add ships to AUS & JPN, we could reach over 25 ships this quarter from SHG.
I expect record deliveries for
#Tesla
this quarter for Europe, Australia and China . . yes, that's right . . China too. $TSLA
#Tesla
🇨🇳 new WuWa video released
The
#DongAGlaucos
#Tesla
Q4 Carrier
#18
* to Europe 🇪🇺 docked at SGH yesterday and is ready to be loaded overnight with lots of Teslas waiting
(*Morningcello not yet counted)
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One of Tesla's largest shareholders
@KoguanLeo
is requesting a $100B buyback through 2026.
Could
#Tesla
generate enough cash for this?
Yes.
Assuming no buybacks/dividends, $TSLA would have about $240B of cash by 2026. Other companies listed below have share buyback programs.
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The Benefits of Local Production for
#Tesla
For Oct '22 $TSLA had record Europe registrations (5.7k) for the first month of a quarter even with Berlin shipping ~3k cars to Taiwan. Two ships arriving from Shanghai unloaded on Oct 14/27 with many of these to be registered in Nov.
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In Q2 '22, 74% of deliveries were made in the final month of the qtr. This was reduced to 64% in Q3 and then 51% in Q4. I believe by the end of Q2 2023, $TSLA will have eliminated the delivery wave and we will start to see deliveries more in line with production.
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$TSLA
#Tesla
Record Deliveries bring Record Financial Results
My Q3 Estimates:
Revenues $22.0B +60%
Gross Profit $6.0B +64%
Operating Profit $4.4B +117%
GAAP Earnings $3.9B +141%
Non-GAAP EPS $1.22 vs Wall Street $1.07
All-Time High numbers on all metrics above.
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Tesla generated $3.3B in cash from operation in Q3.
$2.5B was used for capital expenditures leaving $0.8B of Free Cash Flow.
This is called "Free" as the company can use it as it sees fit (build cash, debt paydown, dividends, buybacks, etc).
In Q3, Tesla added it to cash. $TSLA
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TESLA CHINA DELIVERIES🚀
Final November numbers came in higher than I had projected. First 2 months of the Qtr for local China deliveries were 79.7k significantly beating the prior 2 months of any previous Qtr. $TSLA
TESLA CHINA DELIVERIES 🚀
Graph showing first 2 months of quarter now updated with registrations through Nov 27 plus projections for Nov 28-30.
$TSLA
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Lars said, "we built these new vehicles on existing lines".
He said "we built" (past tense).
$TSLA
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@ChrisDungeon
True. I thought I had seen enough video and pics on the CT that seeing it in person wouldn't be significant but I was wrong. The truck looked much more refined and elegant in person . . if that makes sense.
It's a design, engineering and manufacturing marvel.
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. . .and consider that Energy Margins were already improving before Lathrop scaling.
It only gets better. $TSLA
Why is Tesla energy ignored and why does the opportunity exist?? 1) TSLA covered strictly by auto analysts, 2) historically no gross profit given sub-scale (Pre-Lathrop), 3) TSLA has mentioned the word Megapack on earnings calls only 7 times over the past 2+ years.
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Finally, the Energy segment is something to get excited about.
This is definitely causing me to reassess my $TSLA 2023 financial model and I assume many others are doing the same.
10/ After reasonable opex and 15% tax, I estimate TSLA will earn ~$3/share in EPS from selling Megapacks out of Lathrop in 2023. At 30x (comp NEE trades at 27x) Lathrop at full capacity is conservatively worth ~$90 per TSLA share, or ¾ of today's abysmal TSLA share price today.
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“You’re seeing Detroit peel back . . . This was a poker move for the ages, by Musk, in terms of cutting prices, going after volume . . now they’re in a position of strength. I believe this is the next phase of the Tesla growth story”
@DivesTech
$TSLA
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15 Consecutive Qtrs of Positive Free Cash Flow.
Since 2020, despite huge investments in factory footprint expansions, new product launches, R&D spend on FSD, Optimus and Next Gen Platform, Tesla still generates excess cash. $TSLA 💪
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TESLA FRANCE DELIVERIES 🚀
OK - Let's do France now.
First 2 months of Q4 vs the first 2 months of prior quarters. $TSLA
TESLA CHINA DELIVERIES 🚀
Graph showing first 2 months of quarter now updated with registrations through Nov 27 plus projections for Nov 28-30.
$TSLA
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TESLA CHINA DELIVERIES 🚀
Graph showing first 2 months of quarter now updated with registrations through Nov 27 plus projections for Nov 28-30.
$TSLA
TESLA CHINA DELIVERIES
#Tesla
China registrations in 3rd week of Nov were 14.4k bringing Q4 deliveries to 55.1k through Nov 20. Already the highest total for the first 2 months of any prior quarter.
At this pace, $TSLA could deliver >75k cars in the first 2 months of Q4.
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In Q4, $TSLA generated $157m in interest income. This was achieved by moving funds to higher interest rate investments (from money markets to CDs). We could see over $800m in interest income in 2023.
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Pepsi Driver:
“I come from a family of truck drivers, my grandfather, my uncle, my dad - I grew up on a truck. I do about 400+ miles a day . .being in a good truck, comfortable drive, it makes a world of difference. As soon as I got this (Tesla Semi), I was like, it feels good!”
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For those of us following $TSLA, we knew this already but good to see Reuters sharing the data.
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Equity % of Assets has grown to 55% as $TSLA has paid down debt and has not distributed earnings to shareholders either via cash dividend or buyback.
@elonmusk
@hiromichimizuno
@MartinViecha
I estimated Q4, Tesla’ll produce $5B free cash flow(FCF). Next year Tesla easily push $30B FCF, so $15B is doable, after buybacks, $21B cash + $15B FCF = $36B cash by the end of 2023
$15B will reduce about 75 million free floating shares and push above $200 per share immediately
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Despite Q4 China price cuts & recent year-end incentives, I estimate that $TSLA profit/car will increase from $14.3K to $14.6K (Q3 to Q4)
Additionally, 2023 🇨🇳 price cuts are possible without deteriorating the consolidated global profit per car.
Supporting tweet coming tomorrow…
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Currency rate headwinds subsiding for $TSLA in Q4 with recent Euro strength. The Yuan remains weak but this is beneficial to Tesla as they have more Yuan denominated costs than Yuan denominated sales as they export half of their production with sales in Euros, Australian $, etc.
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Fremont Factory - December 18.
Total of 16 car carriers . . . on a Sunday at 5pm.
$TSLA
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@SawyerMerritt
@larsmoravy
Some companies would have redesigned around this difficulty but Tesla just builds the machine that builds the machine. $TSLA
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From
@bentv_sh
- $TSLA China (Jan 5):
I counted ~45 haulers parked on site, the most I've seen so far, and it was clear that Tesla has picked up the pace of logistics . . morning buses transporting employees . . one after another, and private car parking lots were full of cars.
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In early January 2022 Wall Street expected full year earnings per share (non-GAAP) of $2.96 and $TSLA delivered $4.07.
For 2023, Wall Street is estimating $4.34🤦. . . we'll be watching this movie again.
Tesla Stock Fell -69% in 2022
Despite $TSLA beating the Consensus Wall Street FY2022 Estimates from the beginning of 2022 (Jan 3):
•EPS Beat +37.5%
•Revenue Beat +10.8%
•Deliveries Beat +0.3%
An impressive feat by Tesla—especially considering tough macro & 🇨🇳 shutdowns!
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2022 Energy Segment at $TSLA
From Q1 to Q4, Energy Storage Deployed:
- tripled from 0.8GWh to 2.5GWh
- while margins improved from -11.7% to +12.1%
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At some point WS Analyst will need to start talking about
#Tesla
Energy.
Energy's % of total gross profit rose to 6% in Q2 2023.
Interested to see what this number is in Q3. $TSLA
Tesla Energy - % of Total Gross Profit:
Q3 2022 - 2%
Q4 2022 - 3%
Q1 2023 - 4%
Q2 2023 - 6%
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Unless $TSLA could not secure RoRos for December, I believe the rumor of a China production slowdown is either false or there is year end annual maintenance occurring. With backlog in Europe to absorb Dec production, slowing down due to demand is not a logical conclusion.
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Lol - The Dan O'Dowd scenario tested. $TSLA
Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 12.1.2: 30 Minute Drive through San Francisco with My Commentary
Watch in 4K:
Highlights
0:00 — Introduction
1:36 — Automatic speed offset
2:40 — Setting destination
2:50 — FSD engaged
3:10 — Pedestrian emerges
3:40 —
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Tesla is on track to generate over $1B in Interest Income this year. I project next year could be as high as $1.4B. On an after tax basis, Interest Income would contribute about $0.30 to EPS in 2024.
$TSLA
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I've years of experience prepping the CEO for Earnings Calls. There are 100s of hours of work by dozens of people preparing binders for the CEO so that they can prep the day before the call. Answers are provided for likely questions, the intro comments prepared by communications,
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Emily Chang of Bloomberg with an Uber Driver.
Hailey states that charging is something to get used to but she bought a Tesla because she reduced her cost per week from $400 (gas) to $150 (charging).
$TSLA
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@p_ferragu
@WholeMarsBlog
The fact that Vaibhav was named CFO (and not 'Interim CFO') indicates to me that this was a well planned succession move. Vaibhav has been groomed for this role. I expect no hiccups with the transition.
$TSLA
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Planned as far back as Q2 2022.
Elon on $TSLA earnings call:
Tesla's Mission
Tesla needs to make their cars more affordable, in order to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy
With inflation easing, Tesla is doing just that
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Tesla Energy looking good!
With chip & battery shortages abated coupled with higher (efficient) manufacturing capacity, Tesla Energy should improve further. $TSLA
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Clever!
Why was the Cybertruck launch event modest?
To let influencers tell the story (they pay for the production costs & can quite frankly do it better).
More info at launch event would have stolen the thunder from these influencers.
Watch this. $TSLA
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Despite price cuts and spending $8.9B on capital equipment in 2023, Tesla still generated $4.4B in excess cash (free cash flow). That's over 40 pallets of $100 bills. $TSLA
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And to think it was only a mud field not long ago. $TSLA
Giga Shanghai operates a 95% automated production line, enabling a cycle time of less than 40 seconds!
From taking 2.5 years for the first million cars to be produced, the second million was done in just 12 months 🚘🪄
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Actual results were relatively in line with my Q4 $TSLA estimate. There was FSD revenue recognition of $324m in Q4 that helped actual results get closer to my estimate.
The biggest miss I had was on the Cost of Goods Sold line (my $18.1B vs actual of $18.5B).
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Energy segment at $TSLA starting to scale and this will bring improved gross profit.
#Tesla
's Energy business should achieve $250m in gross profit this year but I expect 4X growth in 2023 to $1B in gross profit as stellar growth brings economies of scale.
Tesla's Impressive Energy Deployment Ramp
Tesla's energy storage deployment of 2,100 MWh in Q3 was an all-time record (more than Q1 + Q2 '22 combined).
$TSLA's goal is to deploy 1.5 TWh (1,500,000 MWh) of energy storage annually by 2030.
📊: Tesla Energy Deployed - TTM
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Wall Street Q3 consensus Non-GAAP EPS for $TSLA was $1.07 on deliveries of 358k. If deliveries of 344k is truly a miss, then we should see WS EPS revised down to about $0.99. If WS EPS does not drop to $0.99, then they are playing us.
I’m estimating $1.22 EPS for Q3
#Tesla
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Now 14 straight quarters of Free Cash Flow.
$TSLA
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When I look at this chart, I think,
"
#Tesla
can do more lending . . . and Ford and GM have done too much".
#TSLA
can afford to take on a little more risk to drive sales considering the quality of their balance sheet.
@TeslaBoomerMama
A financing arm would increases b/s leverage and risk…financing arms are an albatross around GM and F’s neck right now, hope Tesla steers clear….
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Tesla plans to deliver positive cash flow even in tough times.
$TSLA earnings call:
We continue to focus on ramping production while maintaining positive cash flow.
Elon
Our focus is to continue making investments through positive cash flow from operations.
Vaibhav (CFO)
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. . and now Operating Profit per Employee.
$TSLA
Annual Revenue per Employee has increased at $TSLA from $530k in 2020 to $718K in 2022.
This is one component driving operating leverage.
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I worked at a Legacy co. (not auto but another industry). What Farley just did is not common. He is not in denial and he is not hiding the dirty laundry. My respect for him just went up. I am not sure if $F will be successful but this is a positive step.
Ford CEO said: “We didn’t know that our wiring harness for Mach-E was 1.6 kilometers longer than it needed to be. We didn’t know it’s 70 lbs heavier & that that’s [cost an extra] $300 a battery; “We didn’t know that we underinvested in braking technology"
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When factories are shutdown, idle costs are incurred which drive up the cost per car, yet . .
Vaibhav Taneja CFO:
"Despite those factory shutdowns, our cost per vehicle decreased to approximately $37,500"
With no idle costs in Q4, cost per car should decline further.
$TSLA
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Wow . . . starting to resemble the Shanghai staging lot.
Impressive! $TSLA 💪
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For $TSLA Energy Storage, when milestone pymts/deposits run ahead of work completed, the excess pymts received are recorded as Deferred Revenue on the Balance Sheet.
This account has grown 116% vs prior year likely indicating that the project load has more than doubled in a year.
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$TSLA
@bradsferguson
@EmmetPeppers
@MatchasmMatt
This table computes TSLA share price at various P/E ratios by quarter thru Q4 2023.
For example:
$3.53 eps at 110 P/E = $388 share price at Q3'22
$9.00 eps at 85 P/E = $765 share price at Q4'23
#Tesla
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Cash from Operations in Q2 2023 for $TSLA was $3.1B enough to cover Capital Expenditures of $2.1B leaving $1.0B of Free Cash Flow. This is why
#Tesla
states:
"We have ample liquidity to fund our product roadmap, long-term capacity expansion plans and other expenses".
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Shares AH for $TSLA were at $290 when Elon started speaking about FSD, Robotaxi, Dojo, Optimus which dropped price to $278.
To WS,
#Tesla
is a car company with an Energy side business. They don't value AI in their valuation models.
This is how they miss the 5x - 10x.
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Many $TSLA investors have abandoned Auto in their investment thesis with eyes now on Robotaxi, Optimus and Energy. Don't give up on Auto.
Tesla was caught between product cycles during an increasing interest rate environment. New low cost models arriving just as the Fed begins
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Picked up a Tesla Model Y today (our 3rd Tesla).
Appt. at 11:00am . . . drove the car out at 11:20am.
Didn't even have time to pour myself the free coffee.
$TSLA
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Elon Musk stated 3 years ago during the Q2 2020 earnings call:
"I can't emphasize. I think long term, Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive. So I mean, the energy business collectively is bigger than the automotive business"
$TSLA
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When Elon said factories will have manufacturing upgrades, wall street focused on production downtime; I immediately thought of the coming manufacturing cost efficiencies and perhaps a model refresh.
I saw a glass half full. 🍷
$TSLA
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives suspected this could be a sign that the heavily touted refresh of the Model 3 sedan, internally known as Project Highland, is just around the corner.
@FortuneMagazine
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