Conor Sewell (@ccsewell.bsky.social)
@CCSewell
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Director @ Forefront Advisers. Macro, financial services, digital assets. Views my own. Ex-BoE, Treasury. Labour member, big on sports, rugby referee. Autistic.
Joined October 2020
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“Vietnam, another country with very strong ties to France” might be my favourite bit of commentary so far
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This afternoon: Elon Musk tweets that Twitter will be turning off “bloatware”.
Now: no one with two-factor authentication based on their phone can log in because one of the microservices turned off was the one that texts you your 2FA code.
Oh dear.
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On this poll, more under-50s are now voting for the Greens than for the Conservatives.
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (6 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 52% (+2 from 29 Sep)
🔵 CON: 20% (=)
🟠 LDM: 8% (-1)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-1)
🟡 SNP: 5% (=)
Full tables:
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As clarification: I understand that email-based 2FA is still working (hence my reference to texts above).
SMS-based 2FA seems to be completely borked.
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@thhamilton
Who owes this nation a bigger debt: the average 18 year old or the average Telegraph columnist?
I think I know my pick…
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I *think* it might now be turned back on.
Still, not exactly a glorious few hours for Twitter…
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There would appear to be a bit of an inconsistency between “inflation went up because of global factors” and “inflation is coming down again because the UK government is doing such a marvellous job”
Why is inflation high and how are we going to halve it?
Grab a coffee and let Chancellor
@Jeremy_Hunt
explain.
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The Tories spending last night briefing that they might win London, only to lose it by a mile and also lose the West Midlands, is truly a masterclass in how to fuck up expectations management.
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HMT assessing a HMT cutting £10bn
spending bid for from CDEL
£50 million
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This would be the second London mayoral election in a row where there’s been a ton of excited briefings and tweets that the Tories might win, which have all immediately disappeared on the count actually starting.
Can we please actually learn a lesson this time?
🚨 London mayoral count well underway
Safe to say less excited chatter this morning that Susan Hall could pull off a surprise victory - Tories instead making point it could be closer than the polls suggested
Keir Starmer has said he is confident of Khan securing third term
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This has blown up. Nothing really to add except enjoy the Olympics and watch the rugby sevens, you won’t regret it.
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At the risk of looking very silly:
1. I don’t think we’re getting a summer election
2. For Sunak to allow everyone to get this worked up about the possibility only to not do it would be consistent with the level of political strategy he’s demonstrated over the last 18 months
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Fun bonus fact: I’m informed that Labour’s margin of victory actually increased slightly as a result of the recount in Coventry
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A diplomatic incident resulting from planning permission being refused is the most British thing possible
NEW: China has accused the UK of failing to meet its diplomatic obligations, after a plan to move its embassy to east London appeared on the verge of collapse
Deadline for Beijing to appeal Tower Hamlets’ planning refusal is today
Council says it hasn’t
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Arguing that Labour didn’t really win the election/don’t have a mandate etc is just factually wrong.
Labour won a massive majority under FPTP. That is the only thing which provides a mandate in the UK.
You can dislike FPTP all you want (I do!) but it doesn’t change those facts.
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🔔CLOSING TIME🔔
My final election predictions (barring something cataclysmic happening in the next 24 hours):
Labour - 430
Tories - 110
LD - 60
SNP - 20
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The continued Conservative Party line that “it’s okay, people aren’t that enthusiastic about Labour, they just really, really hate us” has not yet ceased to be funny
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To be fair to Sunak, I can see how someone could look at the biggest challenges facing this country - a weak economy, inequality, climate change - and conclude mandatory National Service is the answer.
Wait, no, that’s absolutely bloody insane…
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Tbf, the one thought I literally could not stop having when I was a civil servant was that the department would have run much better if everyone had spent a year of their life being forced into doing pointless nonsense on their weekends
Exclusive: Rishi Sunak is considering requiring future applicants for public sector jobs to have completed National Service
It’s one of the enforcement options that would go to the Royal Commission for consideration if he gets to enact the policy
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The Liz Truss part of this chart remains truly stunning
Things aren't looking too great for Rishi Sunak.
His net approval rating stands at -19.0%; no party leader elected since 2010 has reached this low so quickly other than Liz Truss.
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This is an asinine approach to government.
It is simply not viable for DfE to pay for this out of existing budgets, and Hunt must know it.
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This mini-crisis started with the mini-budget. A change in fiscal policy is the only thing that can fix it.
More liquidity, more support, more emergency measures will only paper over the cracks. The Bank cannot hold off the iceberg forever. The government needs to change course.
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An observation: the thresholds announced today for spousal visas would mean that a very significant number of parliamentary staff would, if they fall in love with and marry someone from abroad, be unable to bring them to the UK on a spousal visa.
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Having the Finance Bill amended is not a confidence issue in and of itself - but would nonetheless be hugely damaging to the PM’s authority.
Your own MPs stepping in and saying they can’t support your fiscal policy does not tend to make for a sustainable political position.
NEW: I understand “multiple” Conservative MPs are in talks with Labour in Parliament to defeat elements of the “mini-budget. Particular focus on 45p rate. Focus is on sending a signal to markets.
Only takes around 35 Tories to rebel for defeat.
More on my
@lbc
show shortly
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I was watching this when suddenly I had a thought
You can watch the video for the first single “Haunted” and stream + save the song to your playlists.
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This is one hell of a chart from the FT
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It would seem to me fundamentally unjust that our Prime Minister, who is married to someone who is not a British citizen, is imposing a policy which means that 73% of British people would be unable to marry a foreign national and live with them in the UK.
The nature of citizenship means that a state has certain duties toward citizens that it doesn't have toward non-citizens. Stopping your citizens from having a family life becaus they aren't rich enough is the most un-conservative thing I can imagine.
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This is not fun, party leaders only do this when they’re *very* distressed
The election is in 11 days' time. Rishi Sunak is campaigning *in his own seat* (notional majority in 2019: 23,514).
This... does not feel like a great sign
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This is fundamentally unserious.
A package of measures such as this, without any real accompanying attempt to address massive shortages of staff in the NHS and social care, is essentially a last act of vandalism of our public services by a government on the way out.
🚨EXCLUSIVE
Major package of policies to reduce net migration being unveiled *today*
- Big rise in minimum salary threshold for skilled worker visas
- Scaling back of health+social care visas
- Overhaul of shortage occupation list
With
@charleshymas
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A Tory PM is over 20 points behind the Labour leader on “can build a strong economy”.
Of all the polling numbers over the last week or so - this should terrify the Conservatives more than anything else.
Truss vs Starmer (2 October):
Starmer leads Truss on ALL attributes:
Cares about people like me (47% | 16%)
Understands problems affecting the UK (46% | 23%)
Represents change (43% | 26%)
Can build a strong economy (44% | 22%)
Is a strong leader (41% | 22%)
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Excellent thread - and we’re seeing a lot of the early symptoms in the UK.
For example, in many of the most prestigious departments there’s a massive bottleneck at the roles just below Deputy Director - meaning talented people leave because they have no chance of promotion.
Apropos of nothing, a thread I did a while back on what actually happens inside government departments when you arbitrarily squeeze their budgets. 👇
TLDR: Efficiency does not magically ensue.
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@BrettKollmann
Not really, more of an edge who kicks inside for pass down packages with 3+ edge rushers on the field
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One other thing on the fracking vote.
Given the change in policy, the Government is now explicitly saying that if Tory MPs vote in line with the 2019 manifesto than they are expressing no confidence in the Government.
This is truly incredible.
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As someone who had some truly horrible experiences in school as a direct result of being autistic, my feelings on this are unprintable.
Deeply appalling on every conceivable level.
According to
@KemiBadenoch
, autism diagnosis gives children 'better treatment in school' and 'offers economic advantages and protections.' This is so far removed from the reality for many folks, no wonder her document is called 'Conservatism in Crisis' ()
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Two-tier policing is a racist dog whistle used by the far right and any journalist using the phrase except to explain why it’s nonsense should be ashamed of themselves
BREAKING: Commissioner of the Met Police Sir Mark Rowley has been seen leaving the Cabinet Office in Westminster.
As he left, he was asked a question about two-tier policing, but Sir Mark grabbed the journalist's microphone and dropped it to the ground.
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This is borne out by polling - people do expect Labour to win but not necessarily by much.
One of many reasons I’m deeply sceptical about the effectiveness of Tory “supermajority” messaging.
A lot of voters will simply reject the premise.
Done a few education conferences this week and been really struck at how many people are surprised when I say Labour is definitely going to win.
Most people are going to be really surprised by the scale of what happens next week.
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Not sure what’s more incredible, this interview or the fact that Rishi Sunak appears to have disappeared off the face of the earth…
Oooft Holden mauling on Sky News just now as advisor steps in to complain about the questions
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A point on this:
It’s not a breach of civil service neutrality to be glad that you’re no longer going to be scapegoated, unfairly maligned and insulted by ministers.
You can’t use civil servants as a punching bag and then be upset that they’re personally glad when you’re gone.
After years of being gaslit by government, we civil servants can breathe again under Labour | The civil servant
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48 hours until internal Tory psychodrama stops being the primary motivating force behind decisions on how to run this country.
Thank god for that.
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I’m not going to share or spread it as it’s obvious nonsense from a pollster that doesn’t meet BPC rules and obfuscates their data, but I see People Polling have a piece of nonsense fantasy out
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The second most senior Treasury minister running for re-election on a platform of “I really have worked my arse off to stop any new houses being built” may explain some of the UK’s problems
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The problem for Truss is that two things are true:
1. The only politically viable way to a sustainable fiscal position involves reversing at least some tax cuts.
2. She has made these cuts so central to her premiership that if she backs down, she loses all remaining authority.
🔺 NEW: Liz Truss has been told by her most senior advisers that she needs to rip up last month’s mini-budget and raise corporation tax as the price of restoring market confidence in her government
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This is very confused briefing - it’s not a worse case scenario!
A 200 seat Labour majority is far from the worst case for the Tories.
That would actually be not too bad for them given current polls!
NEW:
@BloombergUK
Saturday read
* Tory internal polling this week showed that as things stand they’re set for a worst case scenario in line with MRP polls projecting a 200 Labour majority
* senior Tory: “it’s going to be like the Somme”
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Surely a contender for the all time biggest, fastest, and most incredibly needless setting on fire of political capital and authority?
🚨🚨🚨
NEW: Liz Truss preparing to ditch 45p rate TODAY after late crisis talks with Chancellor
Humiliating climb down plan comes after day of acrimony on Brum
Announcement expected in morn in body blow to new Government
No denial from No10 this eve
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I really don’t see what the bull case for Rishi Sunak is:
1. The Conservatives’ polling is basically stagnant
2. It’s fairly clear that rather than Sunak pulling their numbers up to his, his are falling to match theirs
3. The economic outlook for the next year is terrible
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There’s something bleakly funny about seeing far-right posters say the area of London I live in is a “no-go zone”.
I’m a white atheist with one of the poshest voices you will ever hear, and the closest I’ve come to physical harm is from stepping into a bike lane without looking.
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Without wishing to state the obvious, the gains to the government from the Chancellor demonstrating that he “gets it” in relation to the consequences of the mini-Budget are somewhat wasted when the BEIS Secretary of State makes it very clear that he doesn’t “get it”.
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At this rate of increasingly junior people being thrown under the bus, by Thursday we’ll find out that this is all the fault of some poor Range D 12 months into the grad scheme
Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact, Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign.
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Biden will win Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. Calling all four now based on trends in the remaining vote.
Joe Biden will be President with 306 Electoral College votes.
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@JonnElledge
Tbf pointlessly whining about stuff whilst being hilariously wrong is fully on brand for Nick
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My brother in Christ, you had three prime ministers and four chancellors last year
The 10th rebrand by Keir Starmer - yet he hasn't changed.
He's the same strike loving, Corbyn backing, uncontrolled migration supporting lawyer that he was on day one.
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Also note no mention here of a wage-price spiral, when the government has spent the last six months using that as the basis for not meeting public sector pay demands.
Another curious inconsistency…
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Two things:
1. Yet another pollster showing a large number of 2019 Tory voters actually switching to another party rather than just don’t know.
2. Not a great word cloud to have describe your policies is it
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (29 Sep):
🔴 LAB: 50% (+10 from 21 Sep)
🔵 CON: 20% (-8)
🟠 LDM: 9% (-1)
🟢 GRN: 8% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables:
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@Beyond_Topline
I am super curious about what the fact that 50% of the parliamentary Green Party is now in traditionally Tory seats is going to do to internal Green politics over the next five years
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This is out of touch with Conservative voters, never mind the wider public.
The Tories are in serious danger of disappearing down an unpleasant, damaging rabbit hole.
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I would note: in rugby, Saracens were given a large enough points deduction to relegate them from the premiership for much, much less.
BREAKING: Man City charged by Premier Leaue with numerous breaches of financial rules following a four-year investigation.
This is unprecedented:
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Truly exceptional end to “Sunak’s best week”
DEFECTION - Tory MP and former minister, Dr Dan Poulter, is quitting the party and has joined Labour - he tells me Tories no longer values public services he could no longer ‘look people in the eye’ and stay on as a Conservative - more on
@bbcnews
in a sec
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A Reform crossover in at least one poll is in my view very likely.
Not because Reform are necessarily level with or ahead of the Conservatives, but because a number of pollsters have them close enough that moves within the margin of error would see them cross over.
NEW:
@BloombergUK
Saturday read
*Sunak in crisis*
— CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
— PM ‘despondent’
— Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
— they question his judgement, competence
— strategy in tatters
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Anyone else been really annoyed by/disappointed in the BBC’s Olympics coverage?
Feels like they haven’t adapted at all to only having two streams - meaning that far too much time is spent on chat, VTs etc, at the cost of not showing events live (and, in some cases, not at all).
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I’m getting quite sceptical about pollsters who model DKs.
Four weeks ago, it made sense. But there’s still no sign of DKs breaking Tory, either from nowcasters or their own numbers.
There’s normally some late breaking, but I increasingly view the nowcasters as a truer picture.
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This is fundamentally unserious.
It is not costing. It’s not even back of an envelope. It’s literally just writing down a number with zero evidence.
Conservative plans based on £65 billion(!) from cutting welfare and closing the tax gap over the next 5 years.
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The Windsor Framework does open the door to an (admittedly lesser) version of the 1997 effect for Labour if they win the next election, where a recovering economy and improving relations with the EU open unexpected space for the new government to act in…
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Time for a day off from the election - Pride in London, proud of my city 💖
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@thhamilton
@HughRBrechin
Instant hall of fame alongside the “0 days since last incident” one
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Ah yes - every time I talk to people involved in financial markets, the thing I’m most struck by is their commitment to the immortal science of Marxism-Leninism
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Rishi Sunak will have been PM for exactly two months on Christmas Day, so let’s look at how things have gone for him.
Labour’s average poll lead is now “only” 20% in the last five polls (compared to 28% when he came in).
However, that’s almost completely flat from a month ago.
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To be completely clear: I trust Matt Goodwin’s numbers about as much as I trust a Twitter poll with “RT for more participation” at the end
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This would be a truly brilliant way to hole university finances below the waterline at a stroke (to say nothing of all the other reasons why it’s a bad idea)
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This.
We need to focus on what is good policy, not which policy choices are optimal for managing internal factional politics.
The latter is exactly how the Tories ended up creating the massive mess we’re currently in.
If Starmer and Reeves follow this advice and this way of thinking, they will fail.
Comms driven policy thinking always always fails.
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The simple fact is that hundreds of thousands of people are going to find out that they are unable to vote, all in the name of tackling voter fraud (of which there were exactly SIX cases at the last general election).
Fundamentally harmful to democracy.
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Following on from my tweet yesterday - Liz Truss is plumbing previously unexplored depths of political unpopularity. She is less popular than:
1. May just before she was forced out
2. Johnson just before he was forced out
3. Corbyn a few months before a crushing electoral defeat
Liz Truss is already less popular than Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn ever were
Liz Truss: -59 net favourability (1-2 Oct)
Boris Johnson worst score: -53 (July 2022)
Jeremy Corbyn worst score: -55 (June 2019)
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Keir Starmer’s genie is now on a world tour it would appear
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“The Lady is not for turning up” is a cracking line
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As someone who worked at the Bank of England and who saw how cautious its internal processes are (which is entirely correct given the impact they have!) the idea of the Bank moving rapidly to sabotage Liz Truss’s premiership is deeply funny to me.
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“I’ve spoken to Liz Truss, she said she didn’t like it but she’d have to go along with it”
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@BrettKollmann
I’m so sorry Brett - didn’t expect you to actually do it when I suggested it 😂
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Well that speculation was a productive use of 24 hours of everyone’s time on earth
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Nice to have some fanfic to break up the serious analysis
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These policies and Angela Rayner are both popular with the public.
If this is all the Tories have left, then they deserve to be wiped out.
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“The Conservative Party is woke” is the platonic ideal of a Daily Mail article
Liz Truss is right - the Tory party's MP selection process has been so taken over by wokery that even a raging communist could be picked as a candidate, whistleblower tells ANNA MIKHAILOVA and GLEN OWEN
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Barring truly shocking results in the mayorals (narrow Tory holds in Tees Valley and West Midlands are not shocks) or massive changes in later-reporting councils, the key takeaway is this:
Things were disastrous for the Tories before. They remain disastrous now.
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Sorting through old video game boxes at my parents’ house and found this.
One of the greatest games of all time.
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This has potentially not aged super brilliantly - my thoughts on if an election is called below
Looks like I will end up being wrong - I’ll own up to it.
I figured it was unlikely based on the truly terrible fundamentals the Tories are staring at.
But I’m pleased if I was wrong. It means we get the Labour government this country needs sooner rather than later.
Let’s go!
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Americans talking about how Britain is anti-white really are stunningly (and deliberately) ignorant.
I live in one of the most diverse areas of the country and precisely zero times have I felt discriminated against/in danger for being white.
It’s not real. Log off. Touch grass.
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Speaking as a mathematician, I think this is barking up the wrong tree.
The problem isn’t that students don’t do maths for long enough. It’s that they finish GCSEs with no understanding of maths at all.
Adding two more years on won’t solve that.
(1/2)
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The biggest thing is the following have all broadly agreed with the polling average:
1. Polls not using online panels
2. MRPs
3. Polls using probability sampling
4. And now this doing all three
It makes me as confident as I can be that there’s no major systemic polling error.
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This needs to be treated as what it is: terrorism.
That means deploying all of our anti-terror capabilities, treating all those involved as terror suspects, and charging accordingly.
It should also involve criminal prosecution of those organising or inciting the violence.
Latest - already this morning in far-right chats there is a list of over 30 asylum, immigration and refugee support and processing centres across the country has been posted as targets for the week ahead.
The list is spreading across various chats & channels.
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The conflicts of interest here are so large you could drive a bus through them.
I cannot see how his position could possibly be tenable now.
NEW: Confirmed by
@robpowellnews
that Nadhim Zahawi did reach HMRC settlement WHILE he was Chancellor.
At the same time as he had direct oversight of the tax man. And of the nation's finances.
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All of British politics twitter fixating on Sandwell, Street and Parker, which is 100% an expensive law firm
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This is such a good point.
If you move beyond the terminally online (of which I am one), most people want their politics to be normal.
The Tory mixture of incompetence and crankery is politically toxic with the vast majority of people.
The battle for lovely Britain: the "well ahead" are fed up and not going to take it anymore!!
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“And these supply-side reforms, are they in the room with us right now?”
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@Dylan_Difford
This is why the whole “there’s no enthusiasm for Keir Starmer” thing has driven me up the wall.
It’s fine to be meh if your opponent is hated!
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This is just textbook Islamophobia.
Not much else to say. Completely appalling.
Robert Jenrick, who’s standing to be leader of the Conservative Party, wants Muslims to be arrested for saying "God is great" in Arabic in public.
That’s what Allahu Akbar means and every Muslim says it every day when they pray.
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I like “washing machines” as a new standard astronomical unit, although it has a way to go until it overtakes the classic “the size of Wales”
BREAKING 🚨: A newly discovered asteroid the size of 16 washing machines will approach within 140,000 miles of Earth tomorrow (Feb. 22)
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Turns out that the Tories were in fact the anti-growth coalition all along
Today, Rachel Reeves announced Labour’s changes to planning and housing - and name-checked a proposed site at Worcestershire Parkway within my Droitwich and Evesham constituency.
During the election campaign I expressed grave concerns about Labour's instincts to make top-down
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