IP Banking Research
@BankingIp
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Independent Equity Research. An agnostic apolitical investor scouring the earth for durable and diversified cashflows. Tweets are not financial advice.
Joined January 2021
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Pinned Tweet
$C Citigroup. One of the most interesting risk/reward opportunities (LEAPs). A breakdown of the long trade thesis...a short thread. $JPM $BCS $MS $SOFI $GS $DB $BAC $GS $WFC 1/
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@MacroAlf
Don’t bail them out …..wipe out equity and bond holders but guarantee the deposits. They are not to blame
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$SOFI congratulations to all my bullish friends. Very nice run….
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$SOFI $LC why I am no longer short. I explain in below article
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾
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@TheOmniLiberal
The premise is that Hamxs has proven to have high tolerance for Palestinians sufferings…..so it’s largely expandable currency for it. What I am not clear about is why the Palestinians civilians don’t call Hamas out and force them to stop ?
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$SOFI the positive for me is the remixing away from personal loans. Would have liked slightly stronger Tech division revenue and more disclosure but overall very strong results. Well done bulls !
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Congrats 🙌 to all the $SOFI bulls….looking forward to commentary from
@DataDInvesting
and the crew.
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Why am I am buying banks now (longer term)?. $BAC $C $GS $BCS $JPM $DB $GS $MS. A thread …..
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$SOFI up strongly pre-market in an ugly day for the markets. Mr. market is predicting strong beats on results and guidance.
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I just listened
@SoFi
CFO Chris Lapointe @ Stephens Fireside LIVE and overall it was a very positive update for the bulls... a short thread 1/
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$AER AerCap ....a few thoughts about trading AerCap and book value....a short thread 1/
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once again....many congratulations to my friends the $SOFI bulls for crossing the $10 mark.....well done!
@VadimKotlarov
@DataDInvesting
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In 2023, the odds are that the large U.S. and European banks will outperform. $C $BAC $JPM $DB $MS $BCS $WFC $GS
Valuations are cheap (some well below tangible book) the banks are well reserved, highly liquid and capitalised….and interest rates are finally a tailwind. A thread.
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@DataDInvesting
The Qataris are awful investors in banks….(e.g Credit Suisse). The fact they are selling is a contrarian indicator…..
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$SOFI in-spite of a very bullish update by the CFO on conference yesterday. Mr. Market is worried about the macro. That is driving the price narrative.
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$SOFI the pick up in Tech division revenue growth is especially encouraging....congz to the bulls
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
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Key reason why lower rates are beneficial for $SOFI and $LC …..a very short thread.
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What this guy doesn’t understand is that unrealised losses are already included as a reduction to CET1 for the large banks. The Fed exempted smaller banks from this rule, hence the $SVIB collapse. They were insolvent for months.
This is not good.
Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citi and Wells Fargo are drowning in net realized losses.
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Lots of scare mongering of the imminent collapse of $CS on Twitter. Fact check. This is not a solvency, liquidity or systemic issue. Check out the loss absorbing capacity of $CS (~96 billion)
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$BCS $DB $C $BAC $JPM Why take the risk with the regional banks...Barclays is trading at 0.5x tangible book and 20%+ earnings yield. Pays a dividend north of 5% but the most interesting is the Structural Hedge...a thread....
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@RepCori
@WajeehLionn
@NaomiAKlein
@jvplive
Have u condemned the killing, rape and mutulation of innocent women, children and babies ?
#HamasisISIS
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Current thinking on $SOFI. (1) the equity raise (commons &converts) is a net positive. It shores up the CET1 ratio/reduces downside risk in a recession. (2) The ultimate decision of whether $SOFI is a long-term buy hinges on rev growth in Tech div.
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
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$SOFI bulls, it is simple.....rerating of the stock predominantly depends on the revenue growth in the Tech division (I have said this for months now).
@Frugalbuck
@VadimKotlarov
This is (mostly) all that matters....
$SOFI has a communication problem about their tech platform. If the stock is going to rerate, we need more clarity as investors and analysts on this business segment.
I had a follower send me the full analysis from BMO. Honestly, it's a great read and I understand where they are
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My latest on $SOFI. not a bull or bear case, I am explaining why $SOFI trades like it does, what the smart money sees and reasons for high short interest. The bulls may be right, still hopefully a useful contrarian perspective $LC $C $JPM
@DataDInvesting
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$C Citigroup earnings…..lots to unpack (which I will) but the most interesting number is CET1 that increased 80bps to 13%. Sounds like resumption of buybacks is in the cards.
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@WestCoastHill
@AnfieldEdition
Not an apple to apple comparison ….at the time, LFC didn’t benefit from Caicedo being on the pitch!
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@john_j_brown
The banking version of this: If you are in a room with Goldman Sachs bankers and you dont know who is getting f***ed …..its you.
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Investors should stick (and buy the dip) on the large U.S. banks $C $BAC $JPM $WFC $GS $MS . And why did $SI and $SVB got in trouble due to losses in their bond/liquidity portfolio? A thread...
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1)Many investors misunderstand the impact of rising rates on the large banks $C $BAC $DB $BCS $JPM $MS $GS $WFC $HSBC …..a thread
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$C $BAC $JPM $DB $BCS $CS $UBS I believe Citi is the cheapest bank in the large banking space with upside of 100%. This article describes the path to $100 share price for Citigroup.
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$C $BAC $USB $GS $JPM $MS $SIVB $FRC I am rubbing with my eyes with disbelief??? Citi is the best-performing bank...?
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Insightful reflection by
@DataDInvesting
on $SOFI ...there are inherent uncertainties in all thesis (despite our emotional connections to particular names)....writing down what MAY change your views is absolutely essential.
@DataDInvesting
kudos for your in-depth research...
What If I'm wrong about $SOFI?
I've been thinking tonight about what it would look like if I'm wrong. What if all the growth was due to excess capital? What if the tech platform is not a differentiated service that leads to better unit economics? What if their credit outcomes
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$FRC First Republic Bank is a Zombie bank. I see no value in the equity ...
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A very bearish read on $SOFI (probably overly so
@siyul
@DataDInvesting
) but I do agree on the marks. I cannot see any other reason why $SOFI would sell 0 loans in Q1, other than to avoid marking the portfolio at the bid price in the market.
This $SOFI downgrade from Wedbush reads really intg, $2.50 PT is an eye catcher, too.
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$LC $SOFI This article is focused on $LC but sets out why I believe LC set to outperform $SOFI. I know...it is a big and unpopular call & I am sure ppl will bookmark and torture me forever if I get this wrong. Nonetheless, key read for the $SOFI bulls
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$SOFI delivered a blockbuster quarter & guidance and initially stock was up 15%, only to close up 1%..why did Mr. Market fade the gain?A thread.
@DataDInvesting
@PersianMacroGuy
@VadimKotlarov
@ramahluwalia
@siyul
@Frugalbuck
@Futurenvesting
@FunOfInvesting
@amitisinvesting
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$C $BAC $JPM $GS $MS Citigroup is the cheapest of them all at 0.53x TBV..even the great
@AswathDamodaran
bought it recently.....but the biggest catalyst is upcoming by the end of June...a short and sharp thread....
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There is a lot of scare mongering on $CS and $DB currently in Twitter. Mostly misguided and misinformed …here is what you need to know
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$SOFI Read the tea leaves (1) guides for lower Loans in improving market (2) raises capital (CET1) by dilution (3) chief risk officer replaced (4) board strengthened by ex Federal Reserve. Watch what they do, not what they say.
@DataDInvesting
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Barclays $BCS is trading at 0.55x tangible book, forward PE of 4.8x and delivers ROTCE >10%……it is also buying back shares, dividend yield of 4.5-5% and very conservatively reserved for a recession in the UK and U.S.
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$C Citigroup.....massive cost cuts. removing several layers of management. Eliminating governance ...including lots of needed committees.
"This is not going to be universally popular in the organization...many won't like it, but its the right thing to do for shareholders"..
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$SOFI the bear narrative summarised. Some great comments from the bulls countering the thesis. A must read
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$SOFI article. Key points (1) It is an equity raise (2) not without costs and impacts valuation (3) regulators plausibly gave
@noto
a friendly nudge to shore up capital (4) Accounting matters (5) Tech division is bullish
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
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$C Citigroup. 420%+ return since this tweet….just saying…can still make $$$ in “dinosaur” banks…..not only bit and alt coins ;) $BTC $SOFI $MARA $MSTR $JPM $BCS $DB
$C Citigroup. One of the most interesting risk/reward opportunities (LEAPs). A breakdown of the long trade thesis...a short thread. $JPM $BCS $MS $SOFI $GS $DB $BAC $GS $WFC 1/
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$C $BAC $JPM $GS $MS $WFC Citigroup remains my top conviction in the large U.S. space. This short thread will explain why.
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$SOFI as a bull on concentrated positions, I know that I can learn the most from listening to the bear narrative. Here’s mine on $SOFI
@VadimKotlarov
@DataDInvesting
…here’s my take on $SOFI
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$SOFI bulls ….if u r getting it to go meme….I am buying !!!$SOFI
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
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A reminder that Citigroup $C is now buying back shares at 0.75x tangible book.
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$LC $SOFI LendingClub earnings, seems like the start of an inflection point with Banks buying loans again (2H2024). Management team is credible & transparent. Significant upside in friendlier macro.
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$SOFI the Q1'2023 earnings for SoFi were strong yet the shares sold off, why?
Mr. Market is skeptical about the marks on its $10.5 billion unsecured personal loans being "real". The red flag is that $SOFI didn't sell any loans in the quarter... a concise thread....
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The most important metric in $C Citigroup's earning is the CET1 ratio. It now stands at 12.2% (increased by 30 bps for the quarter).....why does it matter so much? A short thread ..... 1/
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$SOFI bulls “the shares are massively undervalued, and worth at least $15”
$SOFI bulls “the equity dilution at ~$7 is great, because it increases TBV”
Interesting logic, I am not smart enough to understand…. Apparently
@DataDInvesting
@StockMarketNerd
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$AER “lease rates are up ~35% in 2023. A 12-year A320 is now renting for what a brand new plane leased for 12 months ago” - China Leasing Corp CFO.
Shortage in planes should last ~4 years. Bullish AerCap.
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$LC $SoFi $UPST a very detailed article about LendingClub. A must read for $SoFi and $UPST.
Follow me if interested in banks and FinTechs
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$SOFI $LC Is anyone wondering why $LC is up ~10% today (let’s hope it holds)….the key driver is phase out of capital restrictions. Not many follow the story….but it is meaningful imo. I wrote all about it
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PCE is now expected at 0.06%. Rate cuts are coming in September (bookmark this and embarrass me later if I am wrong!)
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@DataDInvesting
great post
@DataDInvesting
which to me summarizes the key points and also explains our back-and-forth over the last 15 months. Folks who view $SOFI as a bank, see it how you described it. The reason I am now neutral is the Tech division. >30% CAGR & I will be long
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$AER Killing it ….$3.29 EPS (on track to $13+ in 2024). Raised guidance to 9.20 (ex sales). Debt leverage at 2.4x (way below 2.7x target). Selling assets at 21% premium or ~1.8x book equity. Not complaining. Bullish.
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@KyleWhiteGOAT
Appreciate the passion for the stock $SOFI….but calling someone an “Italian snake” is just not on imo.
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$C another tough but correct decision by Citigroup’s Jane. Citi shuts down its municipal business. ~100+ traders. The muni business has been low ROE biz. Citi appears to be focused on delivering on returns targets. Watch what they do, not what they say …
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@PauloMacro
That's quite a low thing to do, to share her personal pics/bio in this manner. Be respectful and delete this post. no one should be humiliated like this.
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$C Citigroup earnings...a short thread. I will discuss (1) Costs (2) Revenue (3) Capital & (4) ROE. $BAC $JPM $DB $SOFI $WFC $GS $MS $LC $BCS On costs, $C has moved faster than guided for (bending cost curve Q3 toQ4). It is 6 months ahead of schedule 1/
$C Citigroup. One of the most interesting risk/reward opportunities (LEAPs). A breakdown of the long trade thesis...a short thread. $JPM $BCS $MS $SOFI $GS $DB $BAC $GS $WFC 1/
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Short interest for $SOFI and $AMC is about the same....very strange indeed!
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Today is a crucial day for $C Citigroup. The release of the Fed’s stress test which will determine whether Citi can buyback more shares at ~0.6x book. $BAC $C $JPM . A good result and the stock will melt up. A bad result and it will dump. Nonetheless, super important day.
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An interesting bearish take on $SOFI I am sure the bulls will have a rebuttal to some points
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
@PersianMacroGuy
@FunOfInvesting
@Futurenvesting
SoFi bulls miss a few points.
Let's cut to the heart of the matter - SoFi is a personal loan business.
It relies on capital markets for cashflow. That presents a structural flaw to the business model.
When a recession ultimately arrives, the losses will hit SoFi in 3 ways
🧵
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A few asked me about the credit default swap for $2.5b of student loans and reclassification to HFI....a short thread to explain $SOFI
@DataDInvesting
@Futurenvesting
@VadimKotlarov
@ramahluwalia
1/
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1) $C Citigroup - key reasons why Citi is a top pick in U.S. and European banking ( $BAC, $DB, $JPM, $GS , $MS, $BCS, $WFC) and why I am taking advantage of the current dip to load up on the banks. A short and sharp thread....
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$SOFI ?
I mean hopefully
@TheRoaringKitty
starts liking something that isn't a shit dying company. :) $GME
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$C why I think a melt up in Citigroup share price could be on the cards following June CCAR results ? All about share buybacks. $C $BAC $GS $DB $BCS $MS $SOFI $LC $WFC $JPM options trade may make sense too…
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One of the key reasons why I am super-bullish on $C is the potential for share buybacks at a massive discount to TBV. Basel 3 final rules may be diluted and that’s super important as currently $C targets factor in full Basel 3 implementation.
$C Citigroup. One of the most interesting risk/reward opportunities (LEAPs). A breakdown of the long trade thesis...a short thread. $JPM $BCS $MS $SOFI $GS $DB $BAC $GS $WFC 1/
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$SOFI whilst caveating I haven't read the transcript yet, looked like a really good quarter all around (blow out quarter). First reaction I had...lucky I closed my short ahead of earnings. Baffled why gains have faded...? if anyone has an idea...shoot!
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$USB $FRC $WFC $C $JPM $BAC U.S. Bank is under a short attack by Holdco Asset Management. My evaluation of the short thesis and equity dilution risk
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@DataDInvesting
I get it. In investing there is no "sure thing" ... There are a lot of unknown unknowns as well. Your research depth is impressive & better than many analysts. A great resource for investors on $SOFI. But we are all adults here & own our decisions. I hope $SOFI gets to $20-$30.
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Why buy the U.S. regionals (e.g. $FRC) ....I much prefer Barclays $BCS ...20% earnings yield, 50% discount to book and just printed 15% RoTCE
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Interesting information in $LC 10-Q on capital ratios...Feb 2024, the capital constraint may be removed as well as share buybacks may be allowed. At 50%-60% of book value and short duration liquid book, this could get interesting. $SOFI $LC $UPST
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$JPM is a keeper. Own do not trade. $C has been a great trading vehicle, but not a long-term hold. I think though $C restructure is a major surgery, it is not lipstick on a pig. For me, fair value is 0.8xTBV currently....but if she succeeds we could see 1.2x-1.5x in a few years.
I confess Sleepwell's observation $c vs $jpm is fair.
Now a more relevant Q is what the next 5Y would be.
"This Time is Different" is always a difficult thesis: it is statistically unconvincing, is hard to change ppl's perception, and the past means sth to the future.
it
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$C Mike Mayo 12-month target for Citi is $70, 3 year target $119. No.1 pick U.S. banks $BAC $JPM $SOFI $GS $MS $DB $BCS $LC $USB $WFC
$C Citigroup. One of the most interesting risk/reward opportunities (LEAPs). A breakdown of the long trade thesis...a short thread. $JPM $BCS $MS $SOFI $GS $DB $BAC $GS $WFC 1/
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$C $BAC $BCS $DB $GS $JPM $WFC $MS $UBS A short thread about Basel 3 endgame in the wake of presentations by $JPM and $BAC in the conference yesterday.....a short thread
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$BCS is up 45% YTD plus chunky dividend. $KRE (regional banks ETF down 7%). Alpha in banking makes a difference. $C $LC $JPM $BAC $DB $BAC $SOFI
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~170%+ up on this trade (some profits taken), so it is all "house money" now. Still, a long runaway on this one, if Jane executes.... $JPM $BCS $MS $SOFI $GS $DB $BAC $GS $WFC $LC
$C Citigroup. One of the most interesting risk/reward opportunities (LEAPs). A breakdown of the long trade thesis...a short thread. $JPM $BCS $MS $SOFI $GS $DB $BAC $GS $WFC 1/
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Unpopular opinion: Banks' valuations are already factoring in recession end of year/early next year $C $BAC $SOFI $LC $BCS $DB $GS $MS
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$C Citigroup earnings look like a dog's breakfast...pretty ugly tbh. But the guidance for 2024 is all that matters.....stay tuned. $BAC $JPM $SOFI $GS $MS $BAC $LC
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Wow quite a timely press release $LC $SOFI …. LendingClub Exceeds $3 Billion in Loans Sold Through Its Structured Certificates Program
$LC $SOFI This article is focused on $LC but sets out why I believe LC set to outperform $SOFI. I know...it is a big and unpopular call & I am sure ppl will bookmark and torture me forever if I get this wrong. Nonetheless, key read for the $SOFI bulls
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$JPM Dimon said the company will not buy back a lot of its own stock at current prices. Repurchasing shares at a valuation of 2.3 times tangible book value "is a mistake…..my response just buy Citigroup $C at 0.65x TBV!
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$SOFI $DFS $LC why buy SOFI when can buy Discover at 6x? Also $SOFI should spin off Technologies division as separate listed coy.
@Futurenvesting
@hoegermeister
@siyul
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$SOFI convertible debt opportunistic purchase at $72 million, I presume they purchased this at less than face value (0% instrument and convertibility option ~0%)...so it would contribute to GAAP profitability and TBV growth?
@DataDInvesting
@siyul
@VadimKotlarov
@ramahluwalia
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$C $BAC $JPM $BCS $WFC $GS Mr. Market is frustrated with Citigroup with no buybacks announced even though it reached 13% CET1. Read the below for full context
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$C Citigroup “Before we announced the reorg, I had an ICG CFO, and a PBWM CFO, and a Latin America CFO, as well as an EMEA CFO and an Asia CFO. And underneath them they all had CFOs for the five core businesses.”…how many CFOs needed to report the same income?
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$LC very good earnings report. The accounting number are full of noise….key takeaway is that originations and personal loans retained are accelerating. LC held $1 billion of originations on balance sheet …due to CECL accounting, this understates profitability for current Q.
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@DataDInvesting
@CaseyMericle
@anthonynoto
you should seriously consider paying this guy
@DataDInvesting
...not only is he doing great work for your IR team, but he is also advertising your services :)
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Firstly, congratulations to all the $SOFI bulls….
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
. Kudos once again to
@PersianMacroGuy
who called this trade perfectly in all respects. however, let’s talk about the Student Loan catalyst that triggered the rally
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$LC LendingClub ...interesting developments. Agreement with regulators & higher capital requirements expires soon. Structured certificates are super interesting. Share buybacks? $SOFI $C $AFRM $UPST
@DataDInvesting
@siyul
@PersianMacroGuy
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@Schuldensuehner
That’s exactly what Germany needs to pivot away from. U cannot over depend on China for strategic imports….surely the Russian lesson has been learnt !
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@DataDInvesting
This is a false narrative imo. $JPM is playing the politics around proposed regulations…..their returns in the consumer bank are typically 30%~40% ROE, much higher than $SOFi and much lower risk
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