Siyu Li
@siyul
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private investor | ex-NYSE, Bridgewater, Bernstein. Write "Under The Hood" Also:
New York, NY
Joined July 2008
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"Netflix has requested ad buyers submit initial bids next week, with a “soft $65 CPM”."
Wow. $NFLX $MSFT
As a reference, here is US major media CPM from Solomon Partners.
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Insider Activities
My favorite insider activity pattern is 'Insider Flipper': switches from sell to buy or vice versa.
Today I spotted one in $DG
CIO, sold 10k shares at $240 (talk about brilliant!), bought 1/5 at $106.
Clear intent, no noise IMO.
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@bgurley
thx for saying that, Bill.
I said that 1Y ago (35x p/s is too expensive), got many pushback.
$SNOW $DM $BILL $CRWD $NET $ZS $COIN $DDOG
What do they share in common?
They all currently valued >35x P/S.
Let me use a rearview mirror to show what 35x P/S really means for a long-term buy and hold strategy.
👇
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I'm a contrarian, like bargains, and practice average down often.
I also must admit, for all my attempts to buy when others feared, I almost never felt a '100% certain generational buying oppo'.
Always shaky hands, hesitations, and self-doubts.
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$SNOW $DM $BILL $CRWD $NET $ZS $COIN $DDOG
What do they share in common?
They all currently valued >35x P/S.
Let me use a rearview mirror to show what 35x P/S really means for a long-term buy and hold strategy.
👇
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@qcapital2020
2 possible explanations I am thinking of:
Survivorship bias: founder continues to lead because s/he is doing well, and a successful co. (most failing co replaces its founder CEO).
Right skew distribution effects: what % of the gap was caused by $MSFT $AMZN $FB?
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$save Odds Math Update (post-trial briefing)
4 Assumptions:
Break price: $7
Recut price: $24
If $JBLU trial wins:
-repricing odds: 20%
-merger still fails odds: 15%
With that, $save at $15.4 sets $JBLU trial win odds at ~45%.
IMO, $jblu winning odds shall be in the green
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$SAVE 📉60%, merger blocked.
That sucks.
I can talk all about merits.
But as an investor, my job is to get it right.
I am wrong.
Will read the opinion,
and reflect on what I have missed.
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When we discuss us-listed Chinese companies, e.g. $BABA $BIDU $JD $PDD $TCEHY
A common investor concern is delisting risk, citing 'Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act'
❓what does delisting mean
❓what are the implications
❓what are investor options
Time for a 🧵
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$BABA
My analysis of the world's largest e-comm empire
✅I peel the onion, shows its 6 segments.
✅I evaluate each with many data - acq cost, peer comp, fin ratio.
✅I conclude with the elephant in the room - risks.
My View? 45%+ potential upside.
🧵👇
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$PYPL vs $EBAY
As of today, $ebay (86%📈) is a better investment than $pypl (85%📈) since Paypal spin off in July 2015
Revenue (Y2015 - Y2022)
Paypal: ($9B -> $28B)
Ebay: ($8.5B -> 10B)
Wow - is there a disconnect?
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In $SoFi, I find a bigger bull than
@DataDInvesting
.
"'Amazon of Finance' has 24x upside" said Luke on InvestorPlace, "and math checks out"
20% penetration❓
credit card: $JPM ~12%, $C ~5%
checking acct: $JPM ~9%
did Noto say it targets Top 10 FI by Y30?
Fantasy != Math
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My Investment Process
It starts with a 6 parts diagram.
1⃣Signal: idea origination.
2⃣Filtering: To kill, watchList or research the idea
3⃣Research: DD
4⃣Portfolio Mgt: enter/exit, sizing
5⃣Portfolio Maintenance: continuous eval on/off ER seasons.
6⃣Execution
🧵
#Investing
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If Schwab $SCHW is your broker, you shall consider moving your assets, unless you don't like $.
chart credit:
@gatorcapital
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$save
I wrote initial DD at ~$16 in Oct. Thought it was a good oppo, but not a screaming one like $twtr in Y22.
Tons of drama since (see chart👇📉50% 📈100% in 2 months). Luck & patience favored me (so far), and I started in early Nov, and built a full pos in the following 2-3
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$pypl AH ~-6%📉
I guess ppl react to the slide:
❗️FCF dropped >1B due to HFS impact.
That is a scary sound.
But this HFS impact is not the HFS issue many banks had. $PYPL IR did a terrible job.
Can elaborate more, but for now I'm long and adding tonight.
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Each earning season, I read a lot of releases, ppt, letters, filings.
One thing I take notes on is how a company handles an issue/weakness.
I like:
✅present it as it is
✅address it head-on
Dislike:
❌Good adj num, hide in footnotes
❌deflect
examples
$SPOT $AMZN $SKLZ
🧵
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$save that is a nerve-racking statement :-)
Now take a deep breath, we have done our work, studied the Clayton Act, followed the trial, flipped through court filings, tasted as much tea leaf as we could, and did our math.
It is time to be resolute, to have peace with whatever
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Post-mortem is of paramount importance to one's investment process, esp. when facing a big loss i.e. $SAVE
But I want to avoid 2 common traps:
❌'Triumph Loser' - "Judge is wrong, the risk/rewards were obvious"
❌'Over Leaner': "Merger Abs is too hard, shall always avoid huge
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I'm new to $HHH
the co. Ackman kept avg down for 10Y+ and owns ~38% today. Intriguing for sure.
@marginofdanger
made a good case of $HHH's value creation capability.
My counter/Qs with a diff PoV: since IPO, $HHH added ~$5Bn debts, ~$2Bn MPC EBT (from land sale), ~$1Bn EBT
1/ Since it’s very hard to figure out what value has been created at $HHH, I figured I’d give it a stab. Comments welcome.
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Merger Arb Bros: pls suit up, DoJ, we can't wait🙏.
$JBLU / $SAVE
$ALK / $HA
Alaska Airlines and
@HawaiianAir
to combine, expanding benefits and choice for travelers throughout Hawai‘i, the West Coast and beyond.
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God forbid, if DoJ wins the $JBLU $SAVE trial, its litigation team shall be awarded to "Exclusively Flying Spirit for life".
Blow my mind DoJ spends our💰 fighting to keep the world's most hated airline in business.
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$SAVE at $9.5/share
Model:
✅if loss trial, Spirits goes 0.
✅if win trial, model 50% chance re-negotiated price to $22.5 (a price anyone bought after the deal will make whole at least)
With quite a punishing/stressed model, the market marks the trial-winning odds at 38%.
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$JBLU $save vs DoJ post-trial briefing
DoJ's briefing strikes me as an MBA student writing a 200-page DD desperately pitching a busted SPAC idea to impress his/her summer intern boss. (consider me biased)
Like:
"Empirical evidence indicates that at least some consumers prefer
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@mr_skilling
@Lemonade_Inc
I think the likely scenario is LMND has a prepared tweet msg for customers who had positive feedback.
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$FGNA
What leads me to a DD?
🟢YAVB pod talk
@AndrewRangeley
with
@kcerminara
(CEO of FG)
🟢I know consumer (prime/not) lending space well e.g. $UPST $LC $WRLD $DFS
🟢a few value investors whom I respect are bullish
@thomas_kaede
@GrantTh70973333
@cfischer6
Time for a 🧵
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@TomGardnerFool
Excellent companies, but != good investment.
$SNOW, 80B+ MCap, 60x+ P/S, how many companies in the history, if valued at 60x p/s and a large cap(50B+) could have delivered 20% return for 10Y?
Anything other than $AMZN?
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@buccocapital
What one says reveals his/her values.
None of them ever really worked for/be aligned with shareholders' interests. To be honest, public market shareholders are bagholders in their eyes.
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2Y ago, I talked about 3 common investing fallacies, each with a real case. Since then, they are all down 80%+.
$COIN: 📉81%
$FUBO: 📉91%
$SKLZ: 📉96%
Be kind to your portfolio, and avoid these fallacies.
Some common
#investing
fallacies:
❌"1st-level-thinking":
#Crypto
is hot, Coinbase is the biggest. Buy $COIN
❌"success-by-assoc": FuboTV reminds me Roku. $ROKU successful->Buy $FUBO
❌"analyze-by-ppt": Great ppt numbers->Buy $SKLZ. Sec filing $1 rev spend $1.1 on user acq👇
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Burning whale oil reading $jblu $save ~300 pages post-trial briefing night.
Happy $JBLU $SAVE post trial briefing day to all who celebrate
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$save at $16, offers a ~100% merger arbs upside, quite compelling that I (who had no appetite for airlines) decide to take a look. 😂
$JBLU's efforts to jump regulatory hurdles vs
continuously declining prices made it more intriguing.
please talk me out of it. (no pos yet)😂
New VIC pitch on $SAVE 👇
Spirit Airlines (SAVE) - The ongoing combination between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines offers a compelling merger arbitrage play with a potential 88% return in less than a year.
Investment Thesis:
- This opportunity exists due to antitrust concerns as
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TCL / Google partnership news drove down $ROKU 📉4% today.
As a long-time TCL shareholder, and $ROKU admirer (a previous shareholder), I have followed both for a while, and have some insights to share.
Time for a 🧵
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@max_damore
The guy has flaws. But I got to give it to him for his all-in can-do attitude.
No doubt The planet is better with him than without.
His stock? I have No view
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I applaud DDI' unwavering support of $sofi despite recent price actions.
It resonates w/ me as I often go against price (aka buy avg down), if I think price deviates from fundamentals.
Thou in due respect, I don't think the KPI DDI tracks are the most relevant ones (esp. rev,
"To my mind, the stock price is the least useful information you can track, and it's the most widely tracked"
- Peter Lynch
Here is what I track for $SOFI compared to the stock price.
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@AdamB1438
fwiw, the guy stood up like a man, took the beat/humiliation. For that, I have respect, esp considering his age.
If he is truly open-minded, and willing to take such pain and learn, there might be a bright future ahead of him.
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$save update
All remaining hearings are canceled, closing argument is next Tues. That's it.
Thinking about a half-time report, yes call it half-time as I'm anticipating more excitement (volatility), featuring potential characters like Sect. Buttigieg, Senator Warren, and us
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$AFRM
Working on a deeper understanding of BNPL landscape, and its biz model/unit economics.
@InvestiAnalyst
has a decent intro.
Next is the valuation. If you know someone done work on $afrm val model (not just p/s multiply), pls lmk 🙏
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$JBLU CEO steps down (retires).
Ok, $save drama as promised, like I predicted😂. But resignation wasn't on my card.
I'm still assessing the info. But one thing I don't believe (and has been speculated on X) is somehow $jblu acquired info that Judge will rule in DoJ's favor, and
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If you're in $NYCB, long or short, but have yet to listen to 2/7 investor call, I recommend it.
it is not just call's content, but a rare window to peek into the sharp difference between DiNello (current CEO) and Cangemi (last CEO).
Grounded, measured, prudent yet confident
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$UPST
At its current rate (buy $300M loan/qtr), in 2 quarters, Upstart will run out of cash and have to liquidate its loan book.
50% of its $1B loan book is labeled as R&D loans.
Does it mean high-quality stuff?
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$save
DoJ vs Jetblue closing arguments
First, David's summary (read twice) is worth reading👍.
Today's 10%+ 📉 is likely due to the market's reaction to the Judge's Q re: injunction.
IMO these Qs are him probing boundaries, (injunction, hearing on remedies, etc). He is
Good morning from federal District Court in Boston, where closing arguments in the JetBlue-Spirit merger antitrust trial are set to begin.
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Barron's 10 stock picks for 2022
$amzn $t $brk.a $gm $htz $ibm $jnj $jwn $rds.b $v
🟢My fav
$amzn $brk.a (has its poorman one)
🟢My Hell No!
$t: a consistent large-cap value destroyer in recent cap market history.
$ibm: right behind $t
what about you❓
👇
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@michaelsobolik
@warriors
@chamath
I am no fan of Chamath.
But recognizing a pattern when a person has neither info/knowledge edge over a subject and in the meantime has a strong opinion on it, it usually leads to a
misinformed view (sometimes ideology-driven).
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On $save $jblu
In today's space (and after), a few raised concerns that despite concurring voices in $jblu's favor, the spread suggests big guys think otherwise. What are we collectively missing?
4 thoughts I'm thinking.
1. antitrust cases statistically favor Gov.
2. big
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My $save full review (b4 ruling) is out!
Covered the trial, timeline/next steps, potential curve balls, adjusted odds math, and more.
s*_stack link in bio.
Recommend
@AndrewRangeley
chat with Cohen and not miss the upcoming one w/
@LionelHutz_Esq
I learned from all 3,
$save
Quick poll to gauge readers' interest in a $save update*. Please like/repost to show your support.
If you choose something else, please comment👇.
* Initial analysis (published 10/18), link in bio.
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interview w/ $SCHW ceo
He:
❌makes untrue claim:
“That’s why we don’t go out a long way in terms of duration..." (see table👇)
❌ plays victim game:
"investors confused FDIC with SPIC/confused our biz with reg banks".
No, e.g. $IBKR wasn't down
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Many think CEO insider buy is the best confidence boost.
Check out Bryant Riley, $RILY CEO.
He bought $50Mn+ stocks since Mar 2023 ($30 - $55)
At $22/share now, co. under various fraud allegations.
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US REITs premium(discount) to NAV by category
✔️Casino sports a 9% premium ( $VICI $GLPI )
❌Office: 48% discount
❌Hotel: 33.5% discount
e.g. Discount to NAV (premium NYC office REITs):
$SLG (55%) $VNO (53%)
Are ppl too stressed WFH, so visit Casino more frequently❓
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$PYPL - one of the common bear thesis in one chart.
I won't hand out my answer, but here is how I approach it:
This is a composite Take Rate, at a high level, a mixture of money-printing biz (Paypal button) and throat-cutting low-margin ones (Braintree).
To answer if the
If you're a PayPal $PYPL shareholder, does this chart concern you?
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@DataDInvesting
I don't think the market misunderstood what you pointed out. Otherwise, it wouldn't trade at the current "absurd" p/e ratio.
The market is not always rational, but they are more often right than what we perceive.
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Save this.
When next time ~$1B rev co. tells you we're an early-stage growth co. sacrificing profit for growth.
Show them this:
✅Rev $140Mn
✅80% revenue CAGR (Y82-85)
✅net margin 17%
from Microsoft Y85 IPO
Taken from Microsoft’s IPO prospectus
It was a great company from the beginning
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Some said they missed the oppo to buy $save <$10, and now (~$16) fairly priced (odds adjusted).
Look 👇, since Nov 1, $ULCC 📈70%, vs $save 📈50%.
In relative terms, the market arguably didn't bump up $save's trial-winning odds at all.
Or did $save materially get worse vs
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23
Dole $dole announced the sale of its money-losing veg unit for $293Mn.
I explain why this move is incredibly accretive, and updated the valuation model, plus some potential catalysts.
cc
@FishtownCap
@kingdomcapadv
@ValueSituations
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$save
ok, below is some exotic tea leaf reading. Pls, take it fwiw.😂
Judge Young set his ruling target by EoY23 (before 2w trial delay)
Thus tmr equates to his orig self-declared deadline.
Fair to say the case takes longer than he anticipated.
What's tea leaf reading❓
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@qcapital2020
$baba. Might I suggest I still have faith that CCP is a rational player at the end of day with tons of caveats
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Social media platforms' current state:
✔️despite TikTok's rapid rise, $goog (YT) and $meta continue to dominate.
✔️despite overwhelming negative views, ppl continue to (increasingly) depend on social media.
✔️One and only sub $1B MCap co. among all $10B+ peers. Guess who?
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$SoFi 📈12% after ER.
With a $13B+ loan portfolio, it provisioned $15M credit loss, and that's the only reference wrt its loan performance in its 40+ pages ppt/pdf.
Assuming 1Y avg loan duration, 1% default rate ~= $30M loss.
$AXP, the best of the best, can only hope for 1%
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Size up
#BNPL
in TAM view:
BNPL grows to an estimated $30B+ GMV in 🇺🇸Y21, top 3 $AFRM, Afterpay, and Klarna taking most shares.
It competes in unsecured loan space, with players in credit cards and personal loans
cc: $VA $M $JPM $C $AXP $COF $DFS
loan: $LC $UPST $OPFI $SOFI
🧵
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$save
Quick poll to gauge readers' interest in a $save update*. Please like/repost to show your support.
If you choose something else, please comment👇.
* Initial analysis (published 10/18), link in bio.
how did the trial go?
44
next steps & curve balls
38
position/trading strategy
50
something else
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Some quick thoughts on $ALK $HA proposed merger impact to $jblu $save.
A few questioned $ALK $HA cockiness to announce it right b4 DoJ vs $jblu closing arguments.
In my experience, this is likely driven by the increasing risk signals of deal info leaks, attornies, IBs, IR,
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@StockJabber
'pursuing the truth at all costs' is easy said than done.
Especially when it seemingly has all the downside no upside.
In this Edwin the student v.s. Almighty Stanford case, you, sir, earned my respect.
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Going over $SoFi 10Q, finding sth.
Remember the mgt said in 3Q, some loans sold at 105%❓
Here is the actual data:
1⃣ Sold $15Mn, 0.1% of its unsecured loan.
2⃣ Sold at PAR, recognized $0.77Mn servicing assets (5.1% loans amount), which made it 105%
Wait, in 3Q22, it sold
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Most painful investment.
$nls, Bought ~$18/share, sold most <$2,📉90%+
NLS is a home fitness co, a $pton competitor.
I bought at its Covid peak earning 3Q/4Q20 after I 'missed' $pton oppo and considered NLS' a succ turnaround story and a 'cheap' $pton alternative.
Lessons👇
Which thread is of more interest to you?
I will oblige to the response tmr.
1. Most painful investment since Covid and lessons learned.
2. Most satisfying investment since Covid and why.
3. Luckiest investment since Covid and why victory dance is underserved.
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$SCHW
I examine data and show Schwab's (not so) secret formula that it relies on 6% of its asset (cash) to make $.
With sharply declining client deposits, I lay out a scenario that it could lose 50% of earning power by year-end.
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$AMZN
A record-breaking qtr meets with a lukewarm 3%+📈 reaction - Amazon is the "most misunderstood Big Tech".
Forget about its topline solid EPS/revenue beat, its underlying details are far more impressive.
Planning an "Under-the-Hood" dive, give a like if you're interested!
1
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$ROIV (Roivant)
Biotech, Sum-of-the-parts, patent litigation, net-net, all dirty words in one stock😂. Compelling at first glance, complexity and excitement are guaranteed.
I have no pos (yet).
It is a SOTP Story
its soon-to-arrive cash (~$8/share) + $IMVT ($4) pos ~>=
2
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$FRC
There is no kind way to say it, after examining its 1Q23 ER and doing napkin math on various options, I just see (almost) no viable path to its equity survivorship.
Don't be fooled by its $76 TBV/share or 1.77% net margin interest👇
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20
As $SOFI hits its 52w low, some congrats me on taking a consistent bear view.
Hold that thought as it is premature (imo), I'm not right for the right reason yet.
If/when the following plays out then I'm truly right:
1. FV adjusts down: e.g. if its~"105%" sold loan (~2B)
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$CVNA 2Q21 ER headline couldn't be better.
- Record revenue (198% YoY)
- Record gross profit (268% YoY)
- first-time profit, EPS 0.27 beat by 0.63
- Join F500
AH 9%📈
All good.
But when as I check the detailed report, I find a different story.
Time for a 🧵
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In a Chinese tech space talk this week,
@SpecialSitsNews
mentioned a special situation idea - $SOHU.
It took me back to memory lane.
We all know 🇨🇳 giants like:
3 BAT amigos $BIDU $BABA $TCHEY from 2000s
Newcomers $PDD $JD Tiktok from 2010-20s
Who is $SOHU?
time for a 🧵
4
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For those following me on $JBLU $SAVE merger:
Near real-time court updates:
Big price action this week:
🩸 $SAVE down ~>20% to $11/share
🩸Mar24 $20 call, $1.6-$2 range (down from $3.x)
My odds cheatsheet shows equity/option market is in lockstep, now
Hello from the *overflow* room at the US District Court in Boston, MA, where the antitrust trial for the JetBlue-Spirit merger is about to get underway.
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In my latest $save update (link in bio), I explain why $JBLU's "litigating the fix" strategy raises its win odds against DoJ's "Only Enjoin Suffice" approach.
I model Jetblue's win odds at 70% vs. ~50% market-implied odds. That 20% gap sets $save FV at $19, ~30% upside
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@plantmath1
if you have to force it that means it doesn't belong to you. Don't acquire things that don't belong to you, bcs you will lose them at difficult times.
Never force it.
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A solid analysis of $JBLU's supplemental authority, DoJ's response, and $JBLU's response to the response this week.
I went over it, and have no more comments other than watching the back-and-forth is like watching an all-star Barca🇪🇸⚽️play against a tired NY Red Bull team, Red
Over the past few days there have been three docs submitted in the $SAVE / $JBLU case. These Notice of Supplemental Authority (and rebuttals) reference a recent 5th circuit decision on Illumina’s challenge to an FTC commission’s findings in a vertical merger case. (1/20)
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When an M&A goes to Court
I spent time/made bets on Elon/Twitter (Y22), and the current $JBLU $SAVE court case.
They often carry rich alpha, but extracting them requires hard work.
The keys are: grasp the essence of the legal case, know the true levers, and know the odds
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A lot to reflect on, but I want to touch upon what's most relevant ATM.
I said I didn't have a FA view on $SAVE's value alone. I still don't.
I assessed its 'value' by benchmarking it to its peers, and set it in the $3-$8 range (low confidence).
With today's surprisingly
$SAVE 📉60%, merger blocked.
That sucks.
I can talk all about merits.
But as an investor, my job is to get it right.
I am wrong.
Will read the opinion,
and reflect on what I have missed.
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@ChrisJBakke
in 06, Yahoo offered Facebook 1B. The CEO turned down.
Today, Facebook is 500B.
Lesson: always NOT sell?
no, we don't draw lessons based on outlier examples, say no to 1st-level thinking.
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$abnb
it evolves to be an interesting business.
its gigantic $20B GMV biz is breakeven.
Its profit comes from interest: $10B cash + $8B booking advance.
All excessive fees we pay barely support its ops. It is the advanced booking -> profit.
Do we call that banks?😂
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4 weeks, 3 articles ( $dg, $iac $save ), and 99 "Under the Hood" subscribers.
Important Q: who is going to be THE 100th😃?
I appreciate all of your support, more than you know🙏
Link in the bio
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If there is ever a 'Lucky' stock, $PARA ( $VIAC b4) is for me.
Call it luck, bcs I made ~200% profit in Y21, and I was right for the wrong reason (sold near Bill H peak, see story 👇).
Today's $para is a captivating story. It will go down to history as a textbook case study
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Congrats to $SoFi Bulls, an epic run ~2x since my bearish take (uninvestable).
my LT view didn't change and mgt continues to appeal to retails with arguably correct yet oversimplified data. It often reveals sth diff when examining under the hood.
That pattern continues.
Firstly, congratulations to all the $SOFI bulls….
@DataDInvesting
@VadimKotlarov
. Kudos once again to
@PersianMacroGuy
who called this trade perfectly in all respects. however, let’s talk about the Student Loan catalyst that triggered the rally
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$CVNA Awkward math
Carvana touts its ever-growing GPU (Gross Profit per Unit), and 2Q23 reached $6.5k!
The math is unbelievable: it adds Retail, Wholesale, and other gross profit, divided by Total Retail Units❗️
By that logic, It can acquire a supermarket to increase its GPU.
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I first penned my bearish take on First Republic $FRC after it was ~90% off ATH when it announced $30Bn deposits from some greatest banks.
It is 80%📉since.
Takeaway❓
when sth is seriously broken, 90% off ATH/mgt positive tones are not the reasons to remain bullish/hopeful
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Price drives narrative.
Oct 22, the street thought Zuck was crazy, lost his mojo, $meta could be a zero.
Up ~80% since.
True ppl are hard to predict, yet oddly enough, in some, ppl are also the most predictable.
it is the same dude that went against ‘smart’ advisors and rejected $1B offer.
He is doing it again.
Check your credential and credibility before dunking him.
$meta
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A good analysis often takes a step back (to have a bird's eye view), not staring at multiples(p/e, p/s), or margins, but examining its eco-systems, up/down streaming players, alternative data, etc.
A good example analyzing 3 Mexico airports: $OMAB
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$SoFi
Think for a moment:
The bull and bear battle moved (downgraded) from
✅"Is SoFi a Tech powerhouse that offers one-stop superior financial solutions for the young generation?"
to
❓"Is SoFi's AFS accounting for its oversized personal loans fair?"
Still a fan of Noto?
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@TrungTPhan
and experience:
traveling solo: 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
traveling with wife/kids: (need another vacation)!
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@LionelHutz_Esq
@joellthayer
@thehill
hate to be too critical, but the quality of the original piece doesn't hold the bar to your measured and reasoning-based response.
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One data I monitor closely is $GOOG $META $AMZN ads revenue since each reached $1B annually (Y03, Y10, Y13).
I just updated the chart with their Y23 results. (yellow highlighted)
Note that Amazon tracks well Google's ads rev growth with a 10Y lag (Google reached $1B ads rev in
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Intriguing numbers from $FB ER:
Ads biz had $56B op income in Y21.
At $245/share, it is core ads biz (aka ATM machine w/ 48% margin) is valued at 11.5x EV/EBIT, like banks ( $jpm), or tobacco ( $mo )
Assumes Reality Labs is 0.
investors hate long-term bets till ... it works.
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@michaelsobolik
@warriors
@chamath
if one thinks a few US journalists' reports on the subject as unbiased/unquestionable truth, that's as naive as if some Chinese thinking of the same way of the reports they heard about the US.
if you care, do heavy-lifting work to get to the truth. don't follow narratives
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I spent my time in (various forms) odds math in the past, from horse race bets🐎, unsecured consumer loans, to today's DoJ vs $JBLU ( $save ) trial. 😀
While they are vastly different, your edge is from your ability to collect data, slice and dice it to the relevance, and avoid
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$SoFi
I said I will wait till 10K to comment, and here we go.
I monitor SoFi's modeled discount rate, and how it fares against fed and US2Y rate (chart👇)
The green dotted line is the spread between SoFi's discount rate and qtrly Avg(fed + US2Y). Note the spread narrows from
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@InvestmentTalkk
For you, based in UK, with a focus on the US market,
$trmr is a fitting choice - initially IPOed in LSX, with its primary business (rev) in the US.
a member of my top 10 holdings.
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$BABA ER preview - top 3 things I watch/prepare:
✅Scale: Mobile MAU |Annual Active (925M, 811M last Q)
✅Profitability: Core-commerce revenue, adj Ebitda
(RMB 161B, RMB 44B last Q)
✅Cloud Revenue and YoY% (2Q20 ref: $1.75B)
Big 4 this Q: ($AMZN 37%, $MSFT 36%, $GOOG 54.3%)
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Weekly investor ER events (8/2-8/6)
❓ $BABA (8/3) and $ETSY (8/4). Note: $AMZN 📉7% after ER.
❓ $FVRR (8/5). Note: $UPWK 50% GSV YoY growth -> 📉10% after ER. cc
@Invesquotes
media/AdTech
✅ $CRTO (8/4), $MGNI (8/5), $PERI (8/3): compare CTV YoY% growth
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Lots of panic talking about $SIVB, here is the real math.
Unrealized Loss
❌$2.5B in Asset-for-Sale
❌$15B in Held-to-Maturity
Tier 1 Capital is $17.5B
extreme bank run scenario, it wipes out all CET1 capital. (game over before that happens)
Yet client deposit safe
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