Adi Imsirovic
@AdiSurreyEnergy
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Deliberately no filter. Tweeting OWN twisted thoughts. Oil trader 35 y. Fulbright scholar. PhD. Econ. MSc Energy Econ. @SurreyClEnergy @UniofOxford @CSIS
Surrey UK
Joined July 2015
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@MakichyanA
If we have not been warned enough about climate change this summer, we never will.
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Caught some kids messing around with my car last night, they were siphoning petrol into it…
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'France sent an emergency power alert to neighbours including the UK and Spain this week, asking them to be ready to send as much electricity as possible after a huge trading error jeopardised French supplies'.
via
@FT
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High gas prices...
Noticed how bananas look bad in supermarkets lately?
Ethane is normally used for ripening. At current gas prices, suppliers are shortening the ripening stage or skipping it all together.
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A giant awakens:
German finance minister open to new oil, gas drilling in North Sea
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'If London were to rely on batteries for just a week, it would need to buy every battery produced in the world for the next two years.'
via
@FT
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What a mess, what a waste... Germans have shut perfectly good nukes, while Holland, UK and France are spending billions with a decade lead-times to build new ones.
Netherlands talking to three suppliers to build new nuclear power plants
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'India's largest refiner, state-controlled Indian Oil, has paused its buying of Russian crude oil until there is greater clarity about market conditions after Dec. 5 when an EU import ban and a G7 price cap are both set to take effect.' EI
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A cunning plan.
One takeaway from the
@RTE_France
's winter electricity outlook published today: France is counting on importing electricity through Oct-Feb from European neighbors, including the UK.
But the UK power grid is also counting on importing electricity from France this winter.
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@JavierBlas
'...funny how you're a climate warrior if you restrict fossil fuel supplies and prop up fuel prices but you're a pandemic profiteer if you sell the stuff '
(Tellurian Market Commentary).
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@JavierBlas
With their energy policies, the Greens may well be shutting the lights off in Germany.
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77
If I was a head of a major oil trading company, I would seriously lobby For this price cap.
A senior US Treasury official said a proposal being to cap the price of Russian oil exports will be crucial for preventing another global price spike to around $140 a barrel
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@JavierBlas
Full credit to BP and Shell to lead the way.
It was untenable.
How bout ME producers ? OPEC+ where '+' is really Russia?
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Not a surprise when Pakistan, instead of taking oil from the ME, imports Russian oil via transhipment to Iran and then UAE!
And it is still cheaper than ME oil.
Modern vessels making more than 50k, eh. Must mean that the boys in $FRO and $OET are making great cash margins still in off-season
VLCC rates spike 31% as tonnage lists shorten in busier market
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Finally!
Submitted the manuscript and very happy with the cover.
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@JavierBlas
I know I am repeating myself, but in the light of the events, closing perfectly good nukes was a crime.
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China's Oil Demand Passes 15 Million b/d Milestone
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Selloff in oil has little to do with the Sunday OPEC+ meeting. Oil is following a general macro 'risk off' following growing Covid return in Europe, US, Asia (and UK where it is currently rampant, but hospitalisations fortunately still low).
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Vienna Airport.
An aircraft with NO markings arrives at gate F01.
WTF.
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Eureka, dear FT.
Renewables: the more you have, the more you pay for backups -
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@business
Call me old fashioned but why not just eat plain mushrooms if avoiding meat? Shrooms are tasty and a great source of protein etc.
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After a year of hard work, it is slowly happening. The book is in the production process:
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Bloomberg on Jacinda Arden: 'Her management style? Effortless. Her takedowns? Epic. Her policies? Effective. In a world full of populist pols who are often racist, sexist and/or homophobic, Ardern has been an outlier.'
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'Sinopec, PetroChina, and Zhejiang Petrochemical have purchased ~10 supertankers of U.S. and Canadian crude for loading in April…
preparing for a post-Covid surge in demand, while continuing to buy from regular suppliers'
TMC
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Just finished editing the manuscript.
Hopefully, the book should be out by June, for the launch of the 'new Brent' contract.
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SWIFT: ...Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura as well as the trading arms of majors are heavily trading Russian crude and products...a lot of Russian oil is prepaid, so restricting oil supplies may hurt these companies or at least the banks behind the deals) before it hurts the Russians.
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'Vitol, Trafigura, Glencore and Gunvor have continued to lift large volumes of Russian crude and products including diesel, according to ship tracking and port data.'
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Eni chief predicts gas market will remain tight for at least four years
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Money spent on defence last year:
Macedonia $106 million
Bosnia & H. $164 million
Manchester City F. C. $226 million
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@BurggrabenH
@UrbanKaoboy
@ChristophCanne
It can get only worse for car manufacturers.
Slowing of the Chinese economy will encourage a flood of their EVs into Europe's overpriced car market.
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@BillAckman
@Ukraine
The only one posing that risk is Putin. He can withdraw his troops from Ukraine and stop the war.
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Taking a break and spending my own energy for a change.
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Macron should read history, and what happened following the policies by Nixon and Ford in the early 1970s.
They caused shortages.
Then, they blamed OPEC.
Stupidity of the highest order, at the highest level.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he will push the country’s oil sector to sell gasoline and diesel at cost
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!!!
EXCLUSIVE-India's top cement maker paying for Russian coal in Chinese yuan - Reuters News
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'The number of ships carrying sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil has trebled since 2019, according to three of the world’s largest tanker companies which warned the ghost armada is undermining their businesses.'
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Front Brent spread back in contango. Be bullish at your peril.
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Just received this photo from my old friend and work colleague, Kurt Chapman, former global head of oil at Mercuria. I am very humbled when such great oil experts read my book.
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'OPEC+ seaborne oil exports are down by 850 kbd m/m so far. Russian loadings have increased m/m despite the Russia-Ukraine war. Exports from the group's other key members have managed a significant decline.' Kpler
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'Egypt has halted gas supplies to Shell’s ELNG export plant with immediate effect. Eni, operator of Egypt’s second plant at Damietta told supplies stop at the end of this year... suggests that either Cairo anticipates an output slump or it has other plans for the gas.' MEES
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Workers at BP’s 400,000 bbl/year refinery in Rotterdam will strike if demands are not met by Nov. 14, creating diesel shortage concerns in Europe
TMC
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This is just embarrassing.
Having banned some established and independent media, awards are given to OPEC cheerleaders.
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@JavierBlas
We have been burning coal for a couple of centuries, so wy not another few weeks to avoid blackouts (until governments get their s**t together on this transition and the energy crisis). Would be even better to keep those nukes running...
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Here we go:
Russia's Sakhalin 1 oil project disruptions to last couple of months- ONGC - Reuters News
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Germany must reduce final energy consumption by 20-25% to hit 2030 goals
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'GE is cutting its US onshore wind workforce by 20% and plans cuts in Europe and Asia given operating losses and steep drops in demand
…rival Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA last week also said it planned to eliminate 2,900 jobs...' TMC
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Prices offered into the SPR will never be good, as the bureaucrats want to sit on the offers way too long, forcing companies to increase their price levels to account for the price risk.
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'Gazprom, which controls a third of all German, Austrian and Dutch gas storage, emptied the tanks... to unusually low levels last year in an apparent attempt to squeeze European energy supplies ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.'
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I am very happy to see my first book now fairly affordable (as academic books go) in paperback (£18.72 on Amzon UK).
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'The request was triggered by a trading error by one of France’s regional energy providers, which accidentally oversold huge amounts of electricity over a two-day period'.
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@AJentleson
@mehdirhasan
Sorry to meddle in US politics, but would not a fail impeachment make the Donald even stronger? His supporters do not seem to be exactly a rational bunch.
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I am delighted that the book is published now, on time. Paper copies are shipped in May.
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It is not just tanks. Give Ukraine everything they need to defend themselves and liberate their country.
With the great news that
#Poland
will supply a company of
#Leopard2
Main Battle Tanks & the
#UK
set to provide
#Challenger2
#MBTs
, the spotlight is now trained firmly on Berlin. Will
#Germany
join the coalition to give
#Ukraine
the tanks -
#Kampfpanzer
!- it needs?🧵1/
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Talking book?
'Vitol’s head of LNG and European gas and power said half of China’s lost 15 mtpa LNG demand will return this year… and demand recovery could cause gas prices to rebound to ~€100/MWh'
TMC
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Is hydrogen an energy version of Betamax?
If you know what I am talking about, you give away your age.
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Everyone needs an excuse for forecasts gone wrong.
IEA chief says oil demand projections depend on China's growth
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Big mumbers: Dated Brent for the rest of this week valued at about $10 over September forward month.
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Clearly shows the difference between socialist and capitalist economy.
All those who s**t on capitalism, should revisit the images of this part of the world in the 1960, 70s... with queues for pretty much anything worth buying.
There are still many armchair socialist around...
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@JavierBlas
France (and the graph) is a textbook example that it is the marginal supply that sets the price - in spite of some 70% of nuclear generation, French power is not isolated from gas and coal spikes.
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'Australia’s largest coal-fired power station will close seven years earlier than planned, joining a growing list of plants forced offline in the country by the proliferation of cheap wind and solar energy.'
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Ha
U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than gasoline, study finds
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Russia Oil Price Cap: A Lesser Evil or Moral Hazard?
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@elerianm
Perhaps the FED is making it up as they go along?
Managing expectations is not as easy as some think, even for the FED.
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Energy crisis?
8,30 AM, sun is well out and my local supermarket has lights on throughout the car park plus floodlights around the store. There is an enormous amount of wasted energy we can reduce.
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China to cap crude oil processing capacity at 1 bln tons by 2025 - Reuters
'China's oil refining capacity expanded to 920 million tonnes per year, or 18.4 million barrels per day (bpd), in 2022, overtaking the United States as the world's largest.'
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For the election next year, Biden needs cheap gasoline.
Watch this space.
OIL MARKET: Venezuelan and US officials hold secret talks in Qatar, according to El País |
#OOTT
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@thehill
Being an obstacle in fighting climate change, which is a fact (whatever the private views) should be a ctiminal offence.
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SINGAPORE, July 6 (Reuters) - China has issued a third round of petroleum-product export quotas, covering 5 million tonnes of refined fuel and 2.5 mt of LSFO, allowing refiners to cash out solid export margins and help ease tight global fuel supply.
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Front month Brent spread is now in a deep contango (negative).
So much for those who claim the futures do not reflect the fundamentals.
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This 'Peak Oil' stupidity should end, once for all.
Proven reserves are a variable, not a fixed number.
Reserves are a function of technology and price.
Resource economics 101.
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Climate graphic of the week: One-third of Pakistan submerged by flooding, satellite data shows - via
@FT
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Brent Crude Oil: Genesis and Development of the World's Most Important Oil Benchmark
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EVs are breaking the oil monopoly
'The recent increase in electric vehicle sales in China has suppressed gasoline sales during the summer travel season…
two large Chinese retailers’ gasoline sales have dropped -5% since July, despite historic seasonal increases'
tmc
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Germany prepares for possible nationalisation of Gazprom Germania - paper
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Feeling so humbled :
“Having known Adi for more than 30 years and traded
with him, I am certain there is no better person to
write about the history and the workings of the oil
market... A must read for anyone involved in commodities.”
— Marco Dunand, CEO, Mercuria Energy Group
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'Italy will ditch the EU benchmark (TTF) for pricing consumer energy bills and switch to Italian gas contracts in the latest blow to EU solidarity dealt by the gas war...
Italy, along with Spain and Portugal, has been able to stockpile gas more rapidly than NW Europe. ' TMC
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Russia to build two nuclear reactors in Hungary - BBC News
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COP26 aims to banish coal. Asia is building hundreds of power plants to burn it - Reuters
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Our cleaner has just arrived.
Her car is on the left. 🤣
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A quiet beer with Neil Atkinson, former head of the Oil & Markets Division, IEA.
It is hard to beat a pint of cool ale on a hot day.
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