Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦
@bctallis
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Intl Politics & Security | Director, Democratic Strategy Initiative @DSI_Strategy |🇺🇦🇪🇺🇩🇪🇨🇿🇬🇧 | #NeoIdealism | #BerlinsideOut pod | #NAFO |T=personal
Berlin, Deutschland
Joined March 2009
1. What is Neo-Idealism?.(seeing as many of you have asked).It’s a new approach to Grand Strategy & International Relations that I think we can see emerging in responses to #Russia’s war & from #Ukraine’s brave resistance. 1st 🧵in a series on #NeoIdealism .1/25
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EU & NATO both need to get serious. - Find a way to kick Hungary out - & don’t tell me there’s no way to do it. - Back Ukraine to win, give it what it needs. Russia mocks us, makes us look like weaklings as we let it get away with provocation after provocation & mass slaughter.
Two days ago, Orban was shaking hands with Putin. Today, Russia bombs children's hospital. And the EU will do absolutely nothing.
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This week (30-31/08) EU Foreign Ministers meet in #Prague where they'll discussion the #visaban. I've worked on issues relating to visas, borders & EU foreign & security policy for 2 decades. Here's what you need to know .- & why you should SUPPORT the #visabanforrussians .🧵/1
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Immediately suspend #Hungary from Schengen.- & that's just the warning shot. No EU state can be under any illusions that 🇭🇺 govt is working to undermine our security. - they are actively helping our enemies. Hungarians can either have Orban or EU. - time to choose. 🇭🇺OUT🇪🇺.
Following the visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to Moscow, Budapest included citizens of the Russian Federation and Belarus in the so-called "national card" program, which is issued to those wishing to work in Hungary for two years with the possibility of.1/10
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This is how you do it. #Czechia sends more heavy weapons to #Ukraine. They are Czech production. This is on top of T-72 tanks & Dana Howitzers. #Germany, take note - special FAO Robert Habeck, 🇨🇿 is a #NATO member ….
⚡️The Czech Republic handed over RM-70 Vampire multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine. Thank you, we'll never forget!
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Desperate to be in #Ukraine, where they belong, & frustrated by how long it’s taking to #FreeTheLeopards 🇩🇪#tanks are taking matters into their own hands .- a Leopard2A6 & a Bergepanzer 3 broke loose in Gutersloh … /S.- seriously though, how long can this farce go on?
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This is so important. When you watch these clips you’ll know what must be done. Only victory and meaningful justice can end the cycle of aggression. And, every day, more evidence is collected for a Special Tribunal on Russian aggression. Let’s get #SpecialTribunalNow trending.
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#Poland, already leading the way, could pile yet more pressure on #Scholz to deliver #Leopard2s (with a little #US help).-🇺🇸 sent 28 #Abrams to🇵🇱 for training🇵🇱 crews. - If #US donates them to 🇵🇱 it would free up as many as 28 Leos to be sent to #Ukraine 🇺🇦.Eh, @apmassaro3?
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The thing is that even IF #Germany now follows #France & the #US & delivers Armoured vehicles, it will still look like it’s moving at the speed of shame from outside. The only way to now actually regain moral standing is to seize the initiative & go full Leopard.#FreeTheLeopards
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By failing to seize Russian assets we signal weakness & a lack of resolve to win the war. We risk failing to deter Russia by defeating it in Ukraine & putting ourselves in great danger. We have to #MakeRussiaPay as the brilliant @OlenaHalushka said in Munich .#MSC2024
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Hungarians should do something about Orban .- or we must do something about Hungary. The choice must be clear. - you can have the illiberal, Russia helping Orban. - or you can have EU membership. Not both. #Hexit #HuckOff.
“The only way I can read the Hungarian position, not just on Ukraine but on many other issues, is that they are against Europe and everything that Europe stands for.”. — Gabrielius Landsbergis, 🇱🇹 MFA. Hungarians should do something about their government before it’s too late.
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#Poland has already done so much for #Ukraine. Yet, for a relatively small additional investment it could trigger huge additional benefits. Poland could send ONE of its #Leopard 2PL modified MBTs. This would, at a stroke, remove Berlin's excuse for refusing to #FreetheLeopards
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Today’s the day. Time for Tanks. Following #UK, #Poland & #Finland’s lead, of course #Germany & all European partners should join them in sending #MBTs. The #US has sent so much .- & done so much to lead - but if it now needs to #FreetheAbrams to #FreeTheLeopards, it should. 1/4
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I support this #Schengen 'tourist' #visaban for Russians🇷🇺. There are good arguments for & against - & neither option is perfect - but deciding between imperfect options is often the essence of politics. After much careful consideration here's why I support the visa ban🧵.1/.
Stop issuing tourist visas to Russians. Visiting #Europe is a privilege, not a human right. Air travel from RU is shut down. It means while Schengen countries issue visas, neighbours to Russia carry the burden (FI, EE, LV – sole access points). Time to end tourism from Russia now.
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Hungarians must be made to face the consequences of their choices. - 🇭🇺s elected Orban 4 times.- Orban govt undermines EU & NATO security & as institutions .-🇭🇺s cannot have the benefits of EU & NATO (& Schengen) while their elected govt acts against us. ⏩Orban OUT or 🇭🇺 OUT.
🇭🇺 The Hungarian government has introduced a National Card from July that allows Russian and Belarusian “guest workers” to enter the country without the usual security screenings. This policy, which follows the closure of the controversial Russian-controlled International
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Forget the obstacles, time for those who CAN to DO. #UK, #Poland, #Finland & all others who want to give tanks to🇺🇦should do so ASAP. Re-export rules don't matter, #Ukraine's victory does. - #France can step up #LeclercLibre.- & yes, the #US should also #FreeTheAbrams
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We don’t, yet, know what caused the deadly explosion in #Przewodow #Poland & should not jump to conclusions. BUT, there are several important things to consider. 1. This would not have happened if we had earlier given #Ukraine the means to defeat #Russia & end the war.
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What to do with a problem like #Steinmeier getting refused an invitation to #Kyiv by #Zelenskiy?. A 🧵 on why it's better for #Germany to get proactive instead of getting offended over #Ukraine.
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"The wrong man, in the wrong job, at the wrong time.".h/t @BenWallace70.
⚡️ Chancellor Scholz: "I am against the fact that the weapons supplied by us can be fired far into Russian territory and will not change my position regarding the delivery of a cruise missile from Germany.".
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I’ll fix that for you. VisaBan will: .- show EU resolve in support of Ukraine & opposition to Russia. - make clear to Russians that this is their war -with consequences (& cause to reflect).- enhance EU security & stop 🇷🇺s laughing in our faces.- give us a future bargaining chip.
Visa ban will:.- cause human tragedies by creating millions of separated families.- make it harder for emigre opposition to liaise with supporters inside the country.- fuel Putin’s Russophobia narrative. Visa ban will not:. - stop the war or help Ukraine in any meaningful way.
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This is combined with a massive superiority complex & the need to be recognised as superior by others. Its deeply ingrained, cherished & is fundamentally threatened by Ukraine's courageous fight, which shows many Europeans what they would not be willing to do themselves 4/.#Emma
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Many of you have asked why I’m pushing for @GLandsbergis as EU HRVP & @kajakallas as NATO SecGen . TLDR: they’re the best people for the jobs - and to ensure NATO & the EU hold together & have a bright future we need our best in these positions. I came back from #MSC2024 more
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I still haven’t heard one *good* reason why sending ‘Western’ Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) or Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) to #Ukraine would trigger a significant escalation. I’ve heard a lot of reasons given … but they really don’t stack up & don’t outweigh the benefits.
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FFS. Russia must be defeated, deterred, isolated and contained. Not given a way into the EU 🤦.
Vladimir Kara-Murza @vkaramurza: a peaceful Europe is only possible if post-Putin Russia is integrated into the EU. But I don’t think the EU has any appetite for it. Russian culture, as the war has shown, is very distinct from that of Europe 1/.
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Who’s behind #NAFO? .It’s all of us
Putin bootlick @basedMikeLee is attacking NAFO and wants to know who’s behind it. All of us, Mike. It’s all of us. #nafoexpansionisnonnegotiable
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We have to challenge this attitude & make sure it doesn't guide our policy -on the war, on reconstructing & integrating #Ukraine & in our own societies. False superiority won't get us anywhere. Let us be inspired by🇺🇦 & let us act in way that again genuinely inspires others. /end
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Contrary to what some in Berlin are claiming, #Ukraine needs tanks ASAP. - a clear message to #Germany.@CinC_AFU Zaluzhny:.“I can beat this enemy. I need 300 main battle tanks, 600-700 armored personnel carriers, 500 artillery pieces."🇺🇦.#FreeTheLeopards.
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This is why MUCH stronger action is needed. - cut the gas & oil. now. - arm #Ukraine to the hilt. - recognise 🇺🇦’s 🇪🇺 candidacy.
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Excellent from @StewartMcDonald
🗞️ This week’s column: Biden’s policy on Ukraine is emboldening Putin and eroding European security. Ukraine must have the ability to strike back against the very military facilities visiting death upon its people. __.
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🎯.@GLandsbergis hits the target. Again. This is the leadership we need in Europe.
We cannot allow Russian bombers to be better protected than Ukrainian civilians are. Let's ask ourselves if we are being honest about how much we actually support Ukraine.
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There's been a lot said about @TimothyDSnyder's devastating takedown of Jurgen #Habermas perspective on #Ukraine & #Russia which is, sadly, representative of a major strand of discourse in #Germany that also impacts 🇩🇪policy & positioning. I want to highlight a few things 🧵.
Jürgen Habermas, regarded as the greatest political philosopher in Europe, has written a text on its major contemporary crisis, the war in Ukraine. His thesis has directed German discourse away from realities of the past and possibilities of the present.
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US should be transferring its own F-16s to Ukraine - and stop shielding Russian airfields by restricting targeting. We need to WIN.
I am proud that today, @POTUS, alongside Denmark and the Netherlands, announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be flying F-16s this summer. The transfer of F-16s is officially underway
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It's a way of reinforcing this facade of superiority, but its haunted by the recognition that they themselves would not undertake this struggle & have, in too many ways, given in to cynicism about (geo)politics, ideals & progress more widely. 6/.#EmmaRose
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Devastating . @BWallaceMP .“Time & time again Germany has been last to help Ukraine. At every stage they have had to be pushed or embarrassed into doing anything. @aliciakearns: .“Scholz’s comments are irresponsible & a slap in the face to allies.
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Thank you to all who helped make .‘To #Ukraine With Love’ possible. 🇺🇦 & to all of you with whom we have formed community through common purpose this year🇺🇦.#SlavaUkraini & .#MerryChristmas 🎄.
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The fight back has begun. Everyone has rightly talked about grim mood at #MSC2024 .BUT there were major signs that true leaders across Europe have had enough of the gap between words & action .& of key Allie’s failing to stand up for our common interests & for our security. 1/
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In case of doubt …. Olaf Scholz does not want Ukraine to win. And his government’s policy reflects that. This undermines German & European security.
Shortly before meeting #Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, Chancellor Scholz impromptu emphasises in press statement „Germany will not support lifting restrictions on long-range (missiles). This would not be compatible with the my personal conviction.” #UNGA2024
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We often hear that 'Failure is not an Option' in Ukraine. But we are making failure a real possibility. That brings huge danger. For #Ukraine - and for Europe more widely. We can still turn this around, .but to do so we need to act strongly - and fast. A🧵
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“Olaf Scholz is a total failure when it comes to security policy.”. Good job I didn’t say that or it would just be reckless, baseless Germany bashing. Thankfully a German politician said it.
Olaf Scholz ist ein sicherheitspolitischer Totalausfall. Der Ukraine aktiv die Aussicht auf eine NATO-Mitgliedschaft zu verweigern, ermutigt nur einen: Kriegsverbrecher Wladimir Putin. Es wäre ein weiteres Sicherheitsrisiko für Deutschland und Europa. Ausgerechnet Finnland als.
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How to deal with #Russia .- Short thread based on my talk at #LennartMeriConference 2023. #NeoIdealism. 1. Ukraine's war is our war - & must be won. That means restoring UA's 1991 borders & ensuring UA's ability to defend them - & the people within them.
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He played the dumb one in Cheers, right?. Seriously tho, this kind of false equivalence is hardcore, luxury anti-politics masquerading as principle. It’s corrosive & prevalent. It’s totally possibly to be against the Iraq war & in favour of supporting 🇺🇦 to win. - arming.
Woody Harrelson’s response to the press about his views regarding the Russia/Ukraine war is too good 🤣
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With the great news that #Poland will supply a company of #Leopard2 Main Battle Tanks & the #UK set to provide #Challenger2 #MBTs, the spotlight is now trained firmly on Berlin. Will #Germany join the coalition to give #Ukraine the tanks -#Kampfpanzer!- it needs?🧵1/
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"#Germany’s approach swiftly reverted to type: idealism about Moscow’s intentions, sympathy for its wariness of Nato, & appetite for its gas & oil [. ].Berlin blundered into a giant geopolitical trap, with disastrous results".Excellent from @olivernmoody .
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This is #Austria’s former foreign minister-the one who danced with Putin at her wedding. She was given her role by Sebastian Kurz then leader of the mainstream party that still governs 🇦🇹. She is a symbol of the penetration of our societies by the agents of dictatorships. Enough.
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F-16s A ‘key symbol of US support’?.Maybe they’d like to send some then?.
I absolutely hate how the media like @WSJ manipulates people’s emotions to create loud headlines. ▪️Russia attacked Ukraine with over 100 missiles and drones on Monday. ▪️ Ukraine can only use the F-16s to shoot down missiles over its own territory. - Of course, some will crash
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OMG! .The world’s most based Prime Minister @kajakallas addresses us and wishes us the most based #NAFOSummit possible. #NAFOExpansionIsNonNegotiable .#NeoIdealism
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@GLandsbergis Well said!.I won’t mourn Raisi whose regime has beaten and killed women across Iran and aids the Russian regime that has butchered Ukrainians & which seeks to destroy our democracies.
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Neutrality is not naive,.it is cowardly and cynical. And should be treated with the full disdain it deserves.
Switzerland has vetoed an Italian request to export 96 Swiss-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine. "Neutrality" might have had an enlightened feel before the war, but now looks hopelessly naive–as I argued earlier this year.
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@GLandsbergis @GLandsbergis is 100% right. We must wake up to the severe threat we face b/c.- we are not supporting Ukraine to win.- we lack key capabilities .- we may not be able to rely on US .- we are projecting weakness not strength. BUT we can still turn this around.- if we act Fast.
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Canada has failed to properly support Ukraine, and failed to arm itself & properly contribute to NATO.- but is funding Russian propaganda at a major film festival. We must arrest the self-destruction of the West - Canadians & their Allies must demand better.
I’m devastated. Seeing this Russian propaganda film made at all & screened at a major festival is bad enough. Canada under-supporting Ukraine & not moving on #MakeRussiaPay is bad enough. But our government has directly funded Russian propaganda. We need to see resignations.
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“I’m not afraid of Russia, I’m afraid of [The West’s collective] fear of Russia.”. @GLandsbergis lays it on the line for this countries failing to stand up & stop Russian terrorism in our own countries & it’s brutal war in Ukraine.
Why do we call it "hybrid warfare"?.Because if we called it terrorism then we would have to do something about it.
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3 former Generals - Brauss & Bühler (🇩🇪) & @general_ben Hodges (🇺🇸) all argue that we should have supplied 🇺🇦 with tanks & other weapons earlier but that despite the Russian defences, the stalemate can be broken, and that #Ukraine should be given #Taurus .💯agree.
General Brauß in der FAZ: Wären die deutschen Leoparden und anderes Gerät früher gekommen, hätten die Russen nach ihren Niederlagen Ende 2022 nicht die Zeit bekommen, sich in Stellungen einzugraben, die bei der NATO als „die stärksten in der Geschichte“ beschrieben werden. /1.
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Outstanding from #NAFO. Two US Senators (who are not on the right side of history) wondering who pays us. Seeing this happen to BustedMikeLee is especially funny.Well done #Fellas. Cheque’s in the post, right @Official_NAFO?
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VERY strong speech from CDU leader Friedrich Merz calling for real measures to stand up to Russia, to secure Ukraine & secure Europe, and an end of the angst ridden half-hearted approach of Chancellor Scholz. This now needs to be consistently followed up. No more flip flops.
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