Associate Professor
@UniofOxford
; Globe Fellow in Economies of Muslim Societies. I research on political economy of development, with focus on Middle East & Pak
The Oxford Pakistan Programme (OPP) is pleased to announce the launch of its scholarship programme for 2022-23. We are offering up to three graduate scholarships to students applying for a one-year taught master’s programme at
@UniofOxford
Delighted to announce the launch of Oxford Pakistan Programme (OPP), a major new initiative on education and public diplomacy at
@UniofOxford
OPP will generate scholarship opportunities for Pakistani students & consolidate Pakistan-related academic activities
@oxfordgiving
A powerful expose of how money from shady real estate deals in developing countries lands into London's property market --- and recycled back
Report by one of Pakistan's top investigative journalist Naziha Syed Ali
My fav Q for the pol economy paper that I set for Oxford Uni grads this year:
Institutions arise and survive for centuries because they serve the interests of powerful groups, not because they are efficient. Discuss.
The Pakistani state should desist from banning or breaking any mainstream political party. In a diverse ethnic polity, political parties with roots in all provinces are a unifying force. Undermining such parties means undermining national security.
Murtaza Syed is an excellent new appointment as Governor of
@StateBank_Pak
. We worked together with Dr Mahbub ul Haq in late 1990s and completed our Phds in economics at Oxford at the same time. A thorough professional who has Pakistan's best interests close to his heart.
نئے نوجوان گورنر سٹیٹ بنک مرتضٰی سید آکسفورڈ یونیورسٹی سے اعلی تعلیم یافتہ ہیں۔
ان کے والد سپین میں پاکستان کے سفیر رھے اور یہ سینیٹر مشاھد حسین سید کے قریبی رشتہ دار ہیں۔
ان سے توقع ھے کہ وہ پاکستان کے بہترین مفاد میں سٹیٹ بنک کی مالیاتی پالیسیوں کو ترتیب دیں گے
@UmarCheema1
We’re excited to announce our Inaugural Graduate Access Conference, put together to help Pakistani students break barriers and address their concerns in applying to
@UniofOxford
📖
Open to all Pakistani university students [limited spaces]- apply now at
There has been a normative shift in public perceptions:
#Pakistan
's military is no longer viewed as a guardian but an actor with entrenched economic & political interests
Citizens increasingly reject the idea that the military can govern effectively.
If political conflict is not mediated through institutional reform, it will be resolved through violence.
Instability in a nuclear power with a population equalling more than half of the entire Arab world will have consequences beyond Pakistan
Austerity for the Poor, Amnesty for the rich.
#Pakistan
's Finance Minister sets the tone of the new
#IMFBailOut
. Like previous attempts,
#IMF
's latest progr for Pakistan could just turn out to be an elite bailout.
The mass mobilization in
#Bangladesh
that led to the ouster of
#SheikhHasina
represents a public vote of no-confidence against an emerging one-party rule
A quick thread🧵to help understand this important political moment in
#Bangladesh
Short list of insightful pieces on protests & upheaval in Bangladesh from the last few weeks:
Nafis Hasan:
Naveeda Khan:
Naomi Hossain:
Faisal Mahmud and Mehedi Hassan Marof:
1/
#Pakistan
's social structure is shifting in ways that is upending traditional political patterns, eroding military's authority
Traditionally seen as a guardian in the country's heartland, the military is facing a historic loss of legitimacy that is not easily going away.
In Coffee and Power, Jeffrey Paige showed how a single commodity, coffee, is sufficient to explain Central America's power structure. The same can said for sugar in Pakistan.
See my latest piece with
@ShahrukhWani
Most importantly re: middle class:
#Pakistan
has witnessed the growth of an "aspirational" middle class---segments of population that might not earn middle class incomes but have the same ideals and aspirations for good governance as the middle class
The origins of this structural shift lie in the decade of 2000s, which both gave rise to an expanded middle class and radical scaling up of military privileges (esp. in the real estate sector)
"Pakistan is standing at a juncture not too different from the Arab spring, which was also fuelled by a youth bulge, lack of opportunities, and middle class grievances"
By all metrics,
#Pakistan
's middle class has grown considerably. Also reflected in:
- growing urbanization
- expanding higher education
- increasing remittances
Middle class growth is not just an urban phenomenon. It now increasingly stretches to RURAL areas
"Social media have formed a public square where citizens can debate historical narratives about military's political interference, scrutinize judicial decisions, and examine diplomatic engagements"
This aspirational shift is further compounded by, what
@HNadim87
&
@AdilNajam
describe as (a) youth and (b) technology
- largest generation of young people ever who are defecting from Pakistan's traditional political parties
- greater voice through social media/technology
This had two key impacts:
1/ military has lost its monopoly control over public narrative
2/ traditional structures of political authority in rural areas are eroding => making it more difficult for the military to control or sway the political loyalties of 'electables'
Major blunder by the PTI govt to deprive the EAC from one of Pakistan's brightest economist
@AtifRMian
and good decision by
@aikhwaja
to resign from his role.
"The relatively stable political structure, which the military inherited from British colonial rule and perfected to its advantage, is now coming under unprecedented strain from the pressures of an emerging middle class, young defectors, and technology"
Like
@bill_easterly
, Thomas Piketty is leading the call for economists to ask big questions even if causality is difficult to establish statistically. This could be a whiff of fresh air for the discipline
And Piketty closes his talk with a plea to return to the big questions, even if that means not being able to talk about causality in statistical terms.
"Individual voting has begun to eclipse collective voting because political leaders can now bypass local powerholders and appeal directly to voters via social media"
=> weakening of traditional patronage structures, reduced role of caste, biraderi, spiritual affiliation, etc.
Compared to the 1990s, the military's political interference and the resulting instability carries a growing price tag today.
Plus: "the country's elitist model of development--built on privileges and concessions for a few -- is unravelling"
Military's room for political engineering is further shrinking due to an intensified resource crunch (partly due to declining geo-political rents).
Political engineering was less costly in economic terms in 1990s: economy still growing in 5-6 percent; inflation in single digits
The military thus faces a difficult choice :
With growing claimants & shrinking resources, it can either increase repression or concede to fundamental economic and political reforms (which can undercut its own power)
BUT, repression => results in greater loss of legitimacy
Why do developing countries liberalize trade only partially, slashing tariffs but increasing other forms of protection?
In joint work with
@csruck
&
@ferdinandeibl
, we offer a new empirical take using data on politically connected firms in
#Morocco
. 👇
@ChadBown
@SoumayaKeynes
Egypt’s new capital is a political project for Sissi
It is a source of contracts and revenues for military-owned companies, a means to co-opt the private sector & an instrument to legitimise Sissi
Why is Egypt building a new capital? via
@AJEnglish
Interesting fact:
The Biden Team's CIA nominee
#WilliamBurns
wrote his Oxford dissertation on "Economic Aid and American Policy Toward Egypt, 1955–1981."
5/ Nobel Laureate
@Malala
, strong supporter for OPP from the outset, announced a major new scholarship that will allow one Pakistani girl from an underprivileged background to study at Oxford every year.
@ZiauddinY
@MalalaFund
@MariaQanita
The most threatening prospect for autocrats is free flow of information. No wonder, the top declining indicator in countries witnessing deepening authoritarianism is media censorship
What do autocratizers undermine the most?
The figure shows the top declining V-Dem Indicators (by number of declining countries) in the 42 autocratizing countries.
The colors show which V-Dem Index they are part of.
Dataset:
#DR24
:
Pakistan is experiencing a large-scale stripping of its agricultural assets facilitated by its ruling oligarchy, consisting of military, judicial, and political elites.
Elite rents are derived from the rapid conversion of agricultural land into real estate/housing societies
Pakistan has become a food shortage country-S Tarin.Spends USD 10 bn on food imports.This is the real issue. Pakistan has become a trading and consumer state. We need revolution not evolution in economic management. People will starve if we do not correct. No more time to waste.
Suggestions by
#Pakistan
's ruling dispensation to impose a ban on social media are akin to the infamous Press and Publications Ordinance that the country's first military ruler Ayub Khan issued in 1963 to 'control newspapers and curb freedom of expression'
Delighted to join
@lmhoxford
as a Senior Research Fellow. One of my mandates would be to develop and institutionalize
@OxfordPakistan
within Lady Margaret Hall and
@UniofOxford
16/ The OPP is a labour of love & an example of what good teamwork can produce. Watch this space for more updates and subscribe to OPP Youtube channel
@saqib_minahil
#Pakistan
's case shows how access to int'l finance is closely correlated with geo-politics.
Neither Pakistan nor
#Egypt
would economically survive without regular and 'coordinated' cash injections from
#IMF
and Gulf donors
Pakistan Expects to Get $4B From Friendly Nations Soon After IMF Loan Secured: Miftah
• $1.5 billion-$2 billion investment in stocks
• Cash deposit
• $1.2 billion against a deferred oil payment facility from a friendly country and another gas financing line
5/n How to Apply?
Interested applicants are advised to submit their applications by 11:59 GMT, Sunday 8 May 2022. To access the Oxford Pakistan Programme Graduate Scholarship form, click on the below link:
Four facts about
#IMF
's
#Egypt
progr:
Since 2011 poverty rates have risen from 25.2 percent to 32.5 percent
70 percent of taxes go into debt servicing
Military-owned businesses still exempt from VAT
Without additional foreign support, Egypt faces the risk of default
Here r some facts I shared with
@sawaalwithamber
Pakistan's sugar industry has witnessed recurring crisis every few years. Origins of this crisis are political. 50% of the sugar mills are owned by 8 individuals, 50% of output by six groups.
@AmberRShamsi
@AsadAToor
After several years of
#IMF
progr
#Egypt
still in need of structural reforms. The key political economy question is: What has the IMF achieved in its recent engagement with Egypt. My answer: it has kept a military regime afloat
@TheBigPharaoh
@UmarCheema1
Four facts about
#IMF
's
#Egypt
progr:
Since 2011 poverty rates have risen from 25.2 percent to 32.5 percent
70 percent of taxes go into debt servicing
Military-owned businesses still exempt from VAT
Without additional foreign support, Egypt faces the risk of default
7/7 We are delighted to launch our scholarships on the 1st day of holy month of Ramadan. We are thankful to our donors: Syed Sheheryar Ali, Ghani Dadabhoy, Sarwar Khwaja
@oxford_business
, Areeb Azam, Nawaz Khokhar, Asad & Omar Ghauri
@NETSOLTech
, Tariq Zaman & Ahmed Owais Pirzada
1/ The initiative, launched at
@PakistaninUK
attended by noted academicians, businesspersons, and professionals. The OPP has been co-founded by
@TJPirzada
, Lecturer in Material Science,
@HaroonZ44671660
Lawyer & Oxford alumnus, and myself. I’ll serve as the Academic Lead of OPP.
6/ Businessmen and professionals from UK and Pakistan pledged around half a million British pounds for the first phase of OPP for next 5 years.
Syed Sheheryar Ali, the Executive Director of
@Treet_Tweet
announced an annual graduate scholarship
2/ Around 21 Professors and Fellows were in attendance, including four Principals and Heads of Oxford Colleges.
@arusbridger
, former editor of
@Guardian
and current editor of
@prospect_uk
offered strong words of support
2/n OPP will cover tuition fee & living expenses. To be eligible for the OPP Graduate Scholarships, applicants must be either Pakistani nationals who are ordinarily resident in Pakistan or a British Pakistani. Recipients must already have an admission offer from
@OxfordGradStudy
9/ Mr Ahmed Owais Pirzada, former Federal Secretary, announced Jamal Scholarship in memory of brother Dr Ahmed Bilal Shah, a leading doctor in Zimbabwe and a front-line health worker who lost his life earlier this year while serving his community.
@ajpirzada
@AhsanJPirzada
3/n Applicants must credibly demonstrate their desire to contribute to Pakistan’s development through impactful research and public engagement. Female applicants and those from underprivileged backgrounds are particularly encouraged to apply.
7/ Mr Abdul Ghani Dadabhoy, Director of Dadabhoy Group of Companies (
@dbtv_live
), will sponsor an annual Sir Muhammad Iqbal Lecture on Eastern Philosophy. He also announced support for a Visiting Scholars Programme.
@MoeedNj
8/
@HamidMIsmail
Director Ismail Industries, highlighted the need for the Pakistani business community to project Pakistan’s true diversity in academia. He will support the visit of one faculty member from a public sector university in Pakistan to Oxford every year.
@MiftahIsmail
Bangladesh is leapfrogging in dev
"In 1971, Pakistan was 70% richer than Bangladesh; today, Bangladesh is 45% richer than Pakistan."
“It is in the realm of possibility that" Pakistan "could be seeking aid from Bangladesh in 2030.”
Interesting Bloomberg piece by
@mihirssharma
"Bangladesh is far richer than the depressed Indian states where Hindu nationalist politicians have been railing against Bangladeshi “termites.” It’s as if Mississippi were fretting about illegal immigration from Canada."
10/ Dr Tariq Zaman, Consultant Orthopaedic Surgeon at the Cromwell Hospital in London and Honorary Senior Lecturer at Imperial College, announced the launch of annual graduate scholarship for deserving Pakistani and British Pakistani students.
4/ In his keynote speech, Syed Babar Ali termed this as a historic effort, the first of its kind, that will unlock huge opportunities for Pakistani scholars.
@LifeAtLUMS
14/ H.E.
@CTurnerFCDO
, British High Commissioner to Pakistan, described the OPP as a milestone in strengthening academic linkages between the UK and Pakistan. He said that the 1.6 million British Pakistani community is a living bridge between the UK and Pakistan
@ukinpakistan
13/ His Excellency Mr Moazzam Ahmad Khan, described the OPP as a timely initiative that will help cement academic relationships between Pakistan and UK, and will open new opportunities for deserving Pakistani scholars.
@PakistaninUK
@ravian813
@RAKasuri
12/ The campaign for a second Rhodes Scholarship for Pakistan was also launched through the OPP platform by Mohammad Khaishgi, Chief Operating Officer of TRG Global
@rhodes_trust
15/
@ReplyTariq
Chairman of NADRA and former Chief Technical Advisor of UNDP also attended the event and expressed interest in fostering research collaboration with OPP on data science and the use of biometric technologies for development.
@NadraMedia
4/n OPP Graduate Scholarships are being offered in association with Lady Margaret Hall (LMH) as part of the LMH-Pakistan Initiative, a constituent element of the OPP. To take up the award, successful applicants will need to migrate their college affiliation to
@lmhoxford
11/Other donors: Businessman Mr Areeb Chaudhry will sponsor the visit of a female scholar from Pakistan; Mr Sarwar Khawaja, Chairman of Oxford Education Group, will support graduate scholarship; Omer Suleman & Shamyl Malik, Co-Founders of Westridge Markets
Look forward to welcoming
@salma_mousa_
at
@OCISOxford
today. She will discuss her research on:
"Building Social Cohesion in Post-Conflict Muslim Societies"
Remember: Pakistan is the fifth-largest young country in the world: Around 63 percent population of the country comprises young persons in the age bracket, 15-33.
@OxfordPakistan
aims to create opportunities for talented young scholars from 🇵🇰
Be our partners. Support us.
@HamidMirPAK
@ImranKhanPTI
The million dollar question is what will Pakistan offer Saudi Arabia in return. Tacit support in Yemen? Pakistani presence in the de-confliction zone in Syria? Saudi support always carries a price tag.
@ProfTahirMalik
@TalatHussain12
‘A Sufi is one whose language, when he speaks, is the reality of his state’
— Kashif-al-Mahjub, Ali Hajweri
We can pretty much replace the word ‘Sufi’ with a ‘true scholar’
Look forward to hosting one of the most insightful and erudite scholars of our times,
@MazzucatoM
, who will deliver the second Keith Griffin Lecture on "Reimagining the Role of the State"
This is an in-person lecture & open to all. No registration needed.
@ODID_QEH
,
@IIPP_UCL
Professor Mariana Mazzucato, UCL, will give a lecture at the Centre on 'Reimagining the Role of the State: a mission-oriented approach for sustainable and inclusive growth', Monday 18th October 2021 at 5pm. All welcome. More details at
Private media is an increasingly important part of authoritarian power sharing arrangements in developing countries. This book should be relevant not just for Egypt but also Pakistan. Look forward to reading it.
Excited to share the happy news that my latest book, which took several years of hard work, is finally out. I hope it is up to your expectations.
Foreword by Charles Tripp... Many thanks to my publisher
@BloomsburyBooks
@BloomsburyAcad
@IBTauris
This new lecture series is kindly supported by the Dadabhoy Foundation. The Iqbal lecture series will be setting a new precedent in Oxford by livestreaming the lecture to at least twelve Universities in Pakistan, including institutions in Baluchistan, AJK, & GB
Why are absolutist regimes unable to collect taxes? Important new paper by
@jaredcrubin
and Debin Ma uses evidence from Imperial China to show that absolutists, unconstrained by rule of law, are unable to commit to not predating on their tax-collecting agents (and the masses),
The Paradox of Power: Principal-Agent Problems and Administrative Capacity in Imperial China (And Other Absolutist Regimes)
Debin Ma, Jared Rubin (
@jaredcrubin
)
The complete surrender of Pakistan politicians to praetorian pressure reminds me of the philosophical stunt of Diogenes, the cynic, who used to "carry a lamp during the day, claiming to be looking for an honest man".
@ProfTahirMalik
@UmarCheema1
Pakistan's authoritarian model is re-calibrating in the face of growing popular consciousness and legal challenges against martial laws.
That political parties endorsed this legislation w/out any discussion or debate will be remembered as a sad episode
It was a pleasure to record this podcast with
@tabadlab
.
Its a story of how efforts to liberalize trade in
#Pakistan
were scuttled by powerful business lobbies who have their tentacles in all political dispensations, civilian and military alike
@ODID_QEH
🎄 Christmas Special 🎄
🎅🏽 why Pakistani exports don’t grow?
🎅🏽 what does Daronomics do to the economy?
🎅🏽 how bad is elite capture of 🇵🇰 trade policy?
I ask Professor
@AdeelMalikOx
of
@Oxford
to explain Pakistani trade policy over the years
Look forward to hosting an exciting round table on Energy Transition in Middle East and North Africa.
Those interested to participate in person need to register on the link at the bottom of the poster
As uncertainty looms & tensions rise following the shock
#Pakistan
election results, our panel of experts will explore the key issues that could determine Pakistan’s future.
Join
@MayaJTudor
,
@Razarumi
&
@AdeelMalikOx
in person or online today ⬇️
Dr Adeel Malik
@AdeelMalikOx
Associate Professor and Globe Fellow in the Economies of Muslim Societies at Oxford University, speaking of his participation in Governance of public policies during and after conflicts in the Middle East Conference
Zoom link:
We are delighted to announce that
@MaxGallien
has been selected co-winner of this year's APSA MENA Politics Section Award for Best Article in MENA Politics, for his
@PoPpublicsphere
article "Informal Institutions and the Regulation of Smuggling in North Africa."
Cronyism in Pakistan's sugar industry
My analysis for
@etribune
10yrs ago still pertinent today. The adage, "The more things change, the more they stay the same", rings true for Pakistani political economy
Exciting developments at EPoD, as
@aikhwaja
is appointed director of
@HarvardCID
.
EPoD will continue to work closely with CID to expand our research and projects around the world. Read the
@Kennedy_School
press release here:
Look forward to hosting
@AyseZarakol
at
@OCISOxford
today. She will discuss her award winning book that offers a grand narrative of how (Eur)Asia as a space was connected with overlapping world orders. A fine illustration of using history to rethink international relations
What is the moral economy of Islam? Can it provide an input into contemporary discussions on creating a shared economy?
Look forward to speaking on the subject at the
@CFAevents
on Wednesday
@Usman_Hayat
@ODID_QEH
What is tyranny?
Powerful description by Syrian intellectual Abdul Rahman Al-Kawakabi:
"Tyranny is a disease which is more severe than the epidemic, more terrible than fire, more sabotaging than a torrent, more degrading than begging"
From:
طبائع الإستبداد ومصارع الإستعباد
Although Bangladesh spends $25 billion on public procurement annually (around 40% of its budget), its electronic procurement system has contributed to average annual savings of $1.1 billion, enough money to build over 10,000 km of rural roads or 8,000 primary schools.
@ReplyTariq
How do income shocks affect conflict?
My star student
@oballinger
demonstrates how dam-induced irrigation in South-Eastern Turkey led to lower conflict incidence and insurgent recruitment.
Mechanism: better yields & shift to cash crops
Useful 🧵on the paper below:
@cblatts
A project I’ve been working on for a while is out now as a CSAE working paper! It explores the relationship between droughts, irrigation, and insurgency in Southeastern Turkey. 1/11