Adam Y. Liu
@AdamYLiu1
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Assistant Prof @LKYsch @NUSingapore PhD @StanfordPoliSci Postdoc @YaleMacMillan Researching Chinese politics and political economy. 穷诸玄辩,若一毫置于太虚。竭世枢机, 似一滴投于巨壑。
Singapore
Joined June 2020
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Pinned Tweet
was given 5 min to present to heads of development banks at
#BRICS
financial forum. absolutely thrilled. sharing this award w/ former teachers
@PhillipLipscy
@JosephWongUT
@FukuyamaFrancis
and my twitterless advisor Jean Oi and other committee members.
@LKYSch
@NUSingapore
India Exim Bank’s BRICS Economic Research Award 2020 was presented to Dr. Adam Yao Liu during the 10th Annual BRICS Financial Forum hosted online by Russia’s
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Every year when I teach Chinese political economy at
@LKYSch
, I tried hard to find an easy-to-read article for the general audience that explains how China's banking system connects to local gov't debt and the real estate sector. I couldn't. So I wrote one:
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How do ordinary Chinese view China-US relations? Check out our findings.
@nujoaixil
@LKYSch
@CAG_LKYSPP
@cjip_journal
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Do the Chinese support armed unification (#武统）with
#Taiwan
? What about other choices such as status quo, economic sanctions or limited military coercion? Is separation even a choice?
@nujoaixil
and I explore these in this new paper
@LKYSch
@CAG_LKYSPP
:
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Such a perfect blurb 大师兄! I will just add one word---To better understand *why* and how local government debt in China grew unchecked over the last two decades, check out my paper with Jean Oi and Yi Zhang.
@LKYSch
To better understand how local government debt in China grew unchecked over the last two decades, check out
@AdamYLiu1
's new paper in The China Journal:
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Also very worth noting is our finding that, contrary to many journalistic accounts, young Chinese (post-90ers) are NOT more anti-West than the older generation. In fact, (except for the US case), the opposite is true.
@LKYSch
@cag
New year, new paper! Our study on the divergence and asymmetry in Chinese 🇨🇳 public attitudes towards
#Europe
🇪🇺and the
#US
🇺🇸 just out
#OpenAccess
at Journal of Current Chinese Affairs:
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How do autocrats allocate coercive resources over space? A side project I & Charles Chang
@DukeKunshan
worked on at
@Yale
last year. Many thanks to Dr.
@FenggangYang
for sharing religious site data. Granular POI data can be great resource for research #抛砖引玉
@mattinglee
@LKYSch
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and such a clever book cover😆
📖 New
@CambridgeCore
book by
@FSIStanford
@StanfordSAPARC
Xueguang Zhou: 'The Logic of Governance in China' analyzes the institutions and mechanisms by which China is governed and explains how they produce recognizable policy cycles.
Learn more:
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It was terrific seeing you Joe. See you soon next year!
Great to see former student and now
@NUSingapore
@LKYSch
Prof
@AdamYLiu1
in Singapore. Happy to hear about all his successes and the great things Adam is working on!
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Thank you
@StanfordSAPARC
@LKYSch
@CAG_LKYSPP
. Facial expressions too dramatic.😅Following line summarises everything.
Beijing needs to better regulate the numerous small banks that are intimately intertwined with much of China's economic challenges.
@AdamYLiu1
tells us why there’s no easy solution and what tradeoffs China will likely have to make to prevent a run-away banking crisis.
Watch ⏬
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Very much looking forward to reading it. Such "traditional" beliefs continue to affect both institutional and individual behaviors profoundly in contemporary China. Q: Why did X chose to go to Tiananmen Square at 8am on July 1st, 2021, when the recent norm has been 10?
For some winter holiday reading: my book Laws of the Land: Fengshui and the State in Qing Dynasty China is officially out today. I am so grateful for the many family, friends, and colleagues who helped make this happen. Here’s a discount code for 30% off from Princeton. Enjoy!
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We find that, among 15 advanced economies, Singapore is the most favored country by the Chinese people. A joint work with
@nujoaixil
and my MIA student JQ Kwek
@LKYSch
. Another MPP student QT Long, also from
@LKYSch
, did a fantastic job mimicking PEW excel visualization for us.
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This is the banking week. This is also the Festival of Ideas week
@LKYSch
. So I will be sharing my ideas on the evolution of China's banking system
@StanfordSAPARC
. I will explain why that evolution stands at the heart of China's past economic success and current challenges.
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How has Chinese public opinion toward developed countries changed after Trump left office? Check out our follow-up survey.
@nujoaixil
@LKYSch
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Agree. But let me quote Philip Khun's discussion on emperor Qianlong: "Although he did not have to confront a contentious aristocracy, he had to wrestle daily with an official establishment that had become expert in finding quiet ways to protect and enrich itself." Let's see.
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Interesting article. It is starting to look like Beijing wants to unwind the "grand bargain" Zhu Rongji engineered as part of the 1994 fiscal recentralization reform.
@AdamYLiu1
via
@WSJ
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Yes, because wealthy provinces also had greater capacity to set up more LGFVs to begin with, and the poorer provinces had to rely more on implicit gov't guarantees to borrow
()
PBoC Gov Pan Gongsheng raises a point about China’s local government debt problem that’s often ignored. Off-balance sheet borrowing has been mostly opportunistic, which means most LGFV debt is concentrated in richer provinces with greater repayment ability. 1/2
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I co-authored this piece with Professor Xiaojun Li
@nujoaixil
@UBC
and Twitterless Professor Songying Fang
@RiceUniversity
. The study was motivated by the
@pewresearch
survey on China that had gone viral since October. Check it out.
@LKYSch
@NUSingapore
@nus_ari
@berthofmanecon
Perceptions of China have darkened in the United States and much of Europe. Are those feelings mutual?
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my hometown food "锦州烤串" (Jinzhou BBQ) appears in a new CNA Insider video on China's housing market. Feeling hungry and homesick.
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Bloomberg cited our paper, again.
@LKYSch
Bloomberg cited our study in the
@cjip_journal
: “polls show younger Chinese have a more negative image of America than their parents, with the telling exception of those who’ve studied in the US.”
#uschina
Read the paper for free at:
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proud of my grad school friend and now colleague, Jon Chu, aka 朱振翔！
Congrats to Asst Prof
@whoisjonchu
for being awarded NUS Presidential Young Professorship! To learn more about his works, visit
#education
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Also points to why keep unprofitable SOEs in China, check it out.
Excited to share this new research hot off the press from
@chinaquarterly
. We use a 11-year survey of restructured state owned enterprises to examine the cost of political connection in China. Check it out (Open Access):
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honored to join this w/ so many distinguished qianbei; will share my great experience
@LKYSch
&
@NUSingapore
Are you a PhD student? Nervous about the job market? Whether you’re a first year or a grizzled job market veteran, register for our Zoom webinar on how to tackle the job market! Focus is China CP/IR but possibly relevant to others.
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This is 5 years of work. Learned so much from my fantastic friends/co-authors/allies. With alliances playing an increasingly salient role in today's international politics, our findings have real world implications.
@whoisjonchu
@jiyoung_ko
@LKYSch
How can leaders raise popular support for military alliances? Appealing to national interests and shared values between allies can boost support, even in the face of countervailing cues, find
@whoisjonchu
,
@jiyoung_ko
, and
@AdamYLiu1
.
@isanet
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Congratulations Muyao! Prof. Jon and I are both extremely proud of you. Good luck to your PhD journey in the U.S. You will be a fantastic political scientist, whatever that means!
@whoisjonchu
@LKYSch
And I would like to thank my advisor
@AdamYLiu1
and
@whoisjonchu
, for your all-time invaluable encouragement and support during my two years in
@LKYSch
!
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Had a great zoom meeting this morning with Harvard/MIT/UBC urban lab. Thought-provoking Qs from audience. Thanks to Saul Wilson and others for having me. And thanks to
@YZNZhang
for calling me out as 幕后黑手 🤣
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As China rolls out another massive stimulus package, here's my 2 cents on the fundamental problem in China's eco development
#development
#china
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Glad that it's available online so quickly () BUT, so sad that Elsevier so completely messed up table placement despite my detailed instructions on correction...you can read draft:
How do autocrats allocate coercive resources over space? A side project I & Charles Chang
@DukeKunshan
worked on at
@Yale
last year. Many thanks to Dr.
@FenggangYang
for sharing religious site data. Granular POI data can be great resource for research #抛砖引玉
@mattinglee
@LKYSch
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Did I say this? I probably did...." Few local officials want to make a shift away from easy land sales and receive a “sucker’s payoff” in return, says Adam Liu of the National University of Singapore."
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怀念小时候我家楼下的那家熏肉大饼，和那个长���跟李春波一模一样的老板。# age-revealing tweet
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"现在中国人民已经组织起来了，是惹不得的。如果惹翻了，是不好办的" 毛泽东1953. China scholars should have some basic sense of historical sources...
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Phone-A-Friend. Distance learning for all. Check out this fantastic initiative by our MIA students
@LKYSch
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Prof Xiaojun, I'm looking at 2nd wave RIGHT NOW, result remains consistent w/1st wave: 71% of 1,018 respondents have favorable views of Singapore, i.e., Singapore remains
#1
.
@LKYSch
From our first wave of survey in China, second one coming soon: Survey shows 70% Chinese have favourable view of Singapore
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I bought the 2001 edition when I was in grade 9...and I really did read it right away....🙂
Big news — the good folks from
@CASI_Research
have posted a complete and downloadable translation of an important Chinese military text, the 2013 edition of the Science of Military Strategy (战略学). h/t
@CollinSLKoh
1/
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You might be wondering---how come these banks were able to attract deposits across the country? Together they only have 34 branches in Henan (see my map). The answer is...in my work in progress😆
Another sign of economic trouble in
#China
.
All is not well and the moment could not be more sensitive.
#Politics
#Banking
#economics
@CamGeopolitics
@Dept_of_POLIS
@CambridgeFames
@CdsCambridge
@lauchinainst
@NCUSCR
@NUAlumnae
@STEARthinktank
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The super popular Chinese TV drama back in 2017, In the Name of the People, was already replete with talks about "common prosperity." It was aired in the run-up to the 19th party congress.
@MichaelSchuman
latest on Xi’s Common Prosperity in the
@TheAtlantic
. Yours truly is cited.
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Thanks for sharing.
People in
#China
hold a much more favourable opinion of European countries than they do of the United States, an online survey has found.
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Thanks for sharing
@StanfordSAPARC
🇨🇳
#China
's massive local government
#debt
grew unchecked due to a "grand bargain" between the central government and localities, a new study by
@StanfordSAPARC
@FSIStanford
Jean Oi,
@AdamYLiu1
, & Yi Zhang shows.
Read the full story ⏬
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I completely agree.
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Beijing wants to impose tighter regulations on the Chinese banking system to help banks manage and reduce balance-sheet risk, but I don't think the mess in the banking system was really caused by poor risk management.
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Congratulations Jiyoung!!
Exciting news to share! My first book, Popular
#Nationalism
and War has officially been released! I'm beyond grateful for the incredible support and help from all my friends, colleagues, and mentors throughout this journey❣️
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I still see 2023-2024 as the most dangerous period, i.e., after the 20th party congress and winter games in Beijing, provided there's no accident/provocation of any sort before that (推背图:黑兔走入青龙穴，也就是...癸卯年2023->甲辰年2024)
Interesting piece by an analyst from the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs research institute, on why China will not pursue forceful unification of Taiwan...for now.
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This translation sounds a bit...should say sth like 汇聚起伟大复兴的“磅礴伟力” to click
我们美国人爱我们的国家，珍惜我们的民主。我们公开承认我们的缺陷，寻求通过言论、集会、新闻和宗教自由来克服，以期追求“一个更完美的联邦”。这是一股强大的国家实力。
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"... Higher education is a vision, not a calculation. It is a commitment, not a choice. Students are not customers; they are acolytes. Teaching is not a job; it is a sacrament. Research is not an investment; it is a testament..." (James March)
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@yuenyuenang
I wrote sth like "to collect the data, we did the following..." One reviewer said: "did" is not proper academic language😅
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Both Chairman M and Chairman X were born in the year of 癸巳 (1893 & 1953), so they are exactly one 甲子 apart. They were also both born on the day of 丁酉. So 2022壬寅 will be an exceptionally good year for him, so is the year 2024甲辰. Taiwan, watch out.🤓
#goodsocialscience
Xi's second term is up in 2022. He plans to stay on. He hasn't readied anybody who could succeed him. This economist article is speculating what would happen if he unexpectedly dies (turmoil!). What a malicious contemplation over the emperor's death.
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the other side of the story.
the emergence of pro-Beijing tankies into (relative) online prominence is almost entirely a phenomenon of how *unpopular* China has become. (Almost all these figures are substantially up, in unpopularity, on a few years ago)
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I proudly received the 1st friend copy🤓
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My paper with
@AdamYLiu1
just came out open access at
@Intl_Journal
. Download for free here:
@UBCPoliSci
@ubcSPPGA
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one of my favs from my grandpa's bookshelf circa 1995
Nie Rongzhen Memoirs, a very important source to understand early PRC.
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even more amazing is the character that the author chose to represent y, 戌亥并见天门开～～
Amazing guide to the first calculus textbook in East Asia (in which they wrote x^x as 天^天!)
textbook:
guide:
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For those who don't know yet, it's blue because it's "癸" aka 天上之水/雨水。If it's "乙卯”， it'd be in green, as 乙 is 花卉之木。
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Because "一万年太久，只争朝夕."
Why Xi Jinping Isn't Listening to China's Foreign Policy Moderates . Interesting read.
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Thank you for sharing, Prof. Pettis!
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Very important paper by
@AdamYLiu1
, Jean Oi and Yi Zhang. The authors explain the the switch in the locus of borrowing to local governments and their proxies (the LGFVs) as part of a “Grand Bargain” imposed by Zhu Rongji.
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@LKYSch
Thank you for sharing. Must emphasize that this short piece is joint work with Prof. Xiaojun Li
@nujoaixil
of
@UBC
AND my MIA student JQ Kwek
@LKYSch
. Our MPP student QT Long, also from
@LKYSch
, did a fantastic job mimicking PEW visualization. Our students rock.
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@hirako13
@AmHistReview
I hope I'm one of "so many people." If not, I will keep learning from local cadres!😆
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Thank you for remembering my work. A book is in the making. Please stay tuned. 😆
A critical aspect of this system, often overlooked, was how local governments controlled an increasing number of local banks that funded (prior to pre-sale heyday) both the property developers that bought the land and LGFVs that readied it for sale.
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@JosephWongUT
Thank you for sharing Joe. I've been attacked fiercely by the 50 cents online over the past few days. They don't like the findings😂
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This is the first time a map of PLA activities is not shown, as far as I know...
10 PLA aircraft and 4 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. R.O.C. Armed Forces have monitored the situation and tasked CAP aircraft, Navy vessels, and land-based missile systems to respond these activities.
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new chapter means...more 刚 under the great 秦？
Congratulations to H.E. Qin Gang
@AmbQinGang
for his appointment as China's new Foreign Minister! 🌹Looking forward to a splendid new chapter in China's diplomacy.
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graphical representation of 惊蛰。春雷中，蛰伏在地下的虫儿吐掉嘴中的泥土，开始新一年的活动. # A python appeared in our neighbourhood on the first day of Jingzhe, my friend
@xwang0624
suggested using R to defeat it.
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I see continued, though more subtle, influences of traditional cutlure, whatever that means. For instance, I bet the use of 丙丁 must be more frequent during years where "fire" was week, such as 民国一年&二年，which were 壬子 and 癸丑, where the dominant wuxing element was water
Looking at East Asian baby names
1) I thought all parents now want somewhat unique names? How come single-Kanji names are still popular in Japan?
2) In all places boys names = some kind of “vastness” (nature, universe); girl names = some kind of sunny disposition / pretty plant
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He had many conversations with many monks at many monasteries.
Today's story is about an unexpected conversation between Jiang Zemin & a young Buddhist monk 3 decades ago. The author, a veteran journalist, believes the philosophy in the wide-ranging, profound conversation still resonates today.
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South China Sea ADIZ soon?
Xi's phone call to Singapore's Lee was “a purposefully vague statement to invoke fear in the mind of a smaller state and leave that smaller state to determine what their worst fears are that China could make come true”.
@TangAnZhu
🎯
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雄城壮，愿江山无恙
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fantastic work by Prof. Hirata
Day 12 of my work at Monash. Finally opened my physical mailbox and found this. This obviously arrived here earlier than its author. Although it was published online a while ago, it still feels exciting to see it in a physical copy. Thank you very much,
@AmHistReview
.
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@JosephWongUT
@SlaterPolitics
@munkschool
@AI_UofT
@UofT_PolSci
@UWMadison
@uwpolisci
@PrincetonUPress
I have this from 13 yrs ago 😄:
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find mainland
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thoroughly enjoyed listening to this (David Laitin, Margaret Levi, Peter Katzenstein, and Jeremy Weinstein) :
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this is exactly what he said on jan, 2019. nothing new. what is a bit new is that he echoed chairman mao's 1954 speech "我们的目的一定要达到，我们的目的一定能够达到" when he said the historical mission of complete reunification can and will surely be realised.
ON TAIWAN: Amid rising cross strait tensions, Chinese President Xi Jinping says in speech that national reunification by peaceful means best serves the interests of the Chinese nation as a whole, including compatriots in Taiwan
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@tomthehack
@nujoaixil
@Diplomat_APAC
@21CenturyChina
@CWPColumbia
@ubcSPPGA
Thanks for liking our piece Tom. As far as I know, ours is the first of its kind. We'd love to replicate this study in South Asian countries later.
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