Aaron Booth
@ActorAaronBooth
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I am an Actor, reporter for that one site & sometimes for that other one. I also consult for that one company. Come for the maps; stay for the bad takes.
Minneapolis
Joined May 2009
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Here is a final
#MN05
DFL Primary map for the night. Samuels did still win in the suburbs, downtown Minneapolis and around the lakes, but Omar improved significantly in North Minneapolis and kept her suburban losses down compared to 2022.
#MinnesotaPrimary
#MNPol
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Cartograms are ugly and often not super informative, but they do help spoon-feed a little education on population density.
For the record, Walz won re-election easily in 2022, but not because of broad appeal.
-> He only won 13 of 87 counties.
-> 60% of his vote total came from just 4 counties.
-> 2 urban counties (Hennepin & Ramsey) gave him a 400,000 vote cushion. He won the state by 192,408
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This is exactly what I have been saying. The only way to believe the Russian campaign detailed in the indictment has no effect on the election would be to think that political campaigns have no effect on elections.
Did Moscow’s interference impact our election? They chose a candidate and bought ads to support him and attack opponents. They recruited activists to amplify his message. They organized rallies. They focused on swing states. They did what all campaigns do to win votes.
So, yes.
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“I will shut down the government… I am proud to shut down the government… I will take the mantle. I will be the one to shut it down.” -
@realDonaldTrump
, 12/11/2018
"The federal government remains shut down for one reason and one reason only -- because Democrats will not fund border security." -
@realDonaldTrump
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#SD10
in Wisconsin is now final.
@PattyforSenate
wins 54.82%-44.55%. This is a pick-up for the
@WisDems
. GOP Majority in the State Senate now down to 18-14. (still one vacancy)
That is a D+27.52% swing from the 2016 Presidential margin in the district.
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Dixville Notch Results:
GOP:
Write-in: Bloomberg 1
DEM:
Buttigieg: 1
Write-in: Bloomberg 2
Sanders: 1
Bloomberg carries the GOP & DEM side in Dixville Notch as a write-in.
#NHPrimary
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From when I first met the Walz family at the MN State fair back in 2017.
This is my new favorite T-shit. Thanks to
@RepTimWalz
's kid, Gus, for posing with his shirt for me!
#MNStateFair
#MNPol
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The most likely scenario is that
@realDonaldTrump
keeps getting his father and grandfather confused.
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If counting stopped now, Biden would win Arizona and Nevada and therefore 270 electoral voted to Trump’s 268. Trump’s best chance would be faithless electors.
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Charlie probabily doesn’t know this, but Washington DC has a higher rate of homelessness than any US State and it’s budget is part of the federal appropriations process which involves a signature from...get ready for it... President Donald Trump.
The highest homeless population in the United States
New York City 76,501
Los Angeles 55,188
Seattle 11,643
Washington D.C. 7,473
San Jose 7,394
San Francisco 6,858
Philadelphia 5,693
What do they all have in common?
All have Democrat mayors
All voted for Hillary by 80%
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Another Q2 update:
1. Buttigieg $24.8M
2. Biden $21.5M
3. Warren $19.1M
4. Sanders $18M
5. Harris $12M
6. Bennet $2.8M
7. Bullock $2M
8. Hickenlooper $1M
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Totally the behavior of an innocent person.
#NC09
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Hey
@realDonaldTrump
, my grandfather didn't land on Omaha Beach in Normandy on June 6, 1944 for you to still be pandering to Nazis in 2017.
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Democrats just flipped Missouri
#HD97
. Democrat Mike Revis won 51.56%-48.44%. His margin was a massive 30.95% shift from the 2016 Presidential margin.
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Eyebrow raising portions of the national
@ppppolls
:
@realDonaldTrump
voters are either apprently are bad at math or just really gullible.
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Unlike another recent poll of Georgia, this one has demographics (particularly education) well within the ballpark of being reasonable. Trump’s approv in this poll is 47-50 which jives with national data.
GEORGIA
2020 GE:
Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 47%
.
Warren 47%
Trump 47%
.
Trump 48% (+2)
Sanders 46%
.
Trump 49% (+5)
Harris 44%
.
Trump 49% (+7)
Buttigieg 42%
@ClimateNexus
11/4-10
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Before Twitter decides to get even more worked up about this: Pretty good chance it was on loan from a museum or a private collection for decoration and is therefore being recalled at the end of the term.
More stuff (appears to be Abe Lincoln bust) leaving the West Wing this afternoon.
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Final margin in Kentucky
#HD49
:
Belcher (D) 68.45%
Johnson (R) 31.55%
The margin shift:
From the 2016 POTUS: Shifted towards Dems by 85.88%
From the 2016 HD49 race Belcher lost: 37.74% towards Dems
By any measure, Linda Belcher's win tonight is impressive.
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Another news cycle of “random person vast majority of Americans have never heard of says something and therefore everyone must answer to that to prove one is an American.”
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Not that either endorsement would do much to move the needle, but Boehner would probably be more likely yo do something. If Ohio is still close on election day, Kasich + Boehner could make some moderate R's in OH more comfortable voting for Biden or at least against Trump.
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Quickly glancing at some municipal level Gubernatorial results in MN, Walz ran ahead of his 2018 margin in all 10 of MN's largest cities:
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Using the same “say their names” line for actual murderers as you do for someone like Breonna Taylor is a weird messaging choice if your goal isn’t to equate the two.
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Note: Trump’s grandfather (Frederick) was born in Bavaria, though Trump’s father (Fred) claimed Frederick had been born in Sweden. Frederick immigrated to the US 30 years before Fred was born.
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I hate these, but it does at least demonstrate where the population centers are so I guess it's fun. I was messing around on my new laptop, so here is my first map from this laptop: a cartogram of the 2020 Presidential election in MN. (W/the regular map next to it for comparison)
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John McCain just told a boldfaced lie to the Senate. Senate Democrats adopted almost 200 Republican amendments when they passed the ACA.
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Actually, Republicans has a pretty bad night last night. Got locked out of the Senate race and Dems avoided getting locked out in any of the competitive House seats. Dems also got the strong candidates that they wanted in New Jersey.
Great night for Republicans! Congratulations to John Cox on a really big number in California. He can win. Even Fake News CNN said the Trump impact was really big, much bigger than they ever thought possible. So much for the big Blue Wave, it may be a big Red Wave. Working hard!
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“You are welcome to censure me again – but let’s be clear about why: It’s because I still believe (as you used to) that politics is not about the weird worship of one dude.”-
@BenSasse
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Trump on the air in: AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, & WI
Biden on the air in: AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI
One of the two campaigns has a pretty clear understanding of the field of play and what states will decide the 2020 race. The other campaign is run by Parscale.
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For the 6th night of Hanukkah, I gift you all cartograms for these 4 2022 statewide races in Minnesota.
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The only district Biden lost in Minnesota was Omar's
#MN05
. Omar had endorsed and campaigned for Sanders. Biden was able to hold the margin in the 5th to the high single digits. Since Warren was viable, Sanders only netted one delegate out of the district. (4-3-3 split)
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Kornacki’s exasperation about the networks not calling PA at this point is understandable.
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Seriously, how has Sanders not had his Senate website purged of these 2007 press releases yet? Talking about immigrants coming to steal Americans jobs and attacking Democrats for supporting “open borders”...
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If you want a preview of the Minneapolis Q2 map: red is votes against the question.
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Not EVERYTHING is perfectly polarized at every level:
The GOP has Governorships in:
-NH
-MA
-VT
-MD
Dems have Governorships in:
-LA
-KY (pending inauguration next month)
-KS
-MT
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With less than a week to go until the election, Perdue is quarantining:
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So we are going to commit to an open ended troop surge involving an undislosed number of troops. Didn't he oppose this until... this week?
Trump: victory will have a clear definition: attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al-Qaeda . . .
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@ananavarro
But getting an award from a magazine is not at all the same as representing the nation in a foreign county. Bad comparison here.
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First full map from me tonight: Minneapolis Question 2 (this was the policing question)
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Time to check the local headlines 4 years ago today... Yep, don't miss that.
ARE YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO?
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Interesting new Florida poll gives Biden a wide lead with Buttigieg in 7th at 3% behind Bloomberg (7%) Klobuchar (6%) and Yang (5%).
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Inbox: the DFL is calling for Fiscbach and Hagedorn to be expelled from Congress.
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Maybe after this week, you shouldn’t say suspending Trump’s account “will have many unforeseen consequences.”
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The takes on here if McAuliffe wins will be terrible.
The takes on here if Youngkin wins will be terrible.
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New
@GravisMarketing
poll of Minnesota:
🔵
@JoeBiden
54%
🔴
@realDonaldTrump
37%
Net approvals:
@POTUS
: -14
@GovTimWalz
: +24
@amyklobuchar
: +19
@SenTinaSmith
: +10
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So, the national polling this weekend has been Biden +4, Biden +10, Biden +9, Biden +13, Biden +11 and Biden +10. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate remains at Biden +8. On that note, the only poll in that group any fundraising team wants you to know about is the Biden +4 number.
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Some notable MN cities that swung from Trump to Biden:
Anoka: T +4.6 > D +2.8
Blaine: T +3.4 > D +5.1
Coon Rapids: R +3.6 > D +7.1
Bemidji: R + 1.8 > D + 10.2
St Cloud: R+ 1.8 > D +9.1
Chaska: R +2.6 > D +8.9
Shakopee: R+ 2.8 > D+ 8.5
Champlin: R+ 3.1 > D + 7
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Trump is currently on his way to a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. The Dow down by >800 points today and the Florida panhandle is experiencing the stronest hurricane they have ever seen...
Now a flashback to Trump in 2012 —>
Yesterday Obama campaigned with JayZ & Springsteen while Hurricane Sandy victims across NY & NJ are still decimated by Sandy. Wrong!
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100% this is an image you are going to see a lot today and for the next 3 months.
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100% reporting for Tennessee
#SD14
. GOP hold here with only a narrow 0.83% margin shift towards the Democrats from the 2016 Presidential margin.
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MN vote total note to highlight how high turnout was:
Trump right now the most votes a Republican POTUS nominee has ever received in the state at 1,481,393.
*HOWEVER*
Biden right now has a record though for any POTUS nominee at 1,713,684.
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@GothamChess
@chesscom
Spoiler: the elo is a joke and it’s basically the highest bot of the groud of cats
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One of the Republicans who will be voting for the resolution in the House today:
In order to be consistent in preserving the constitutional structure of our Republic, I will be voting for the resolution to prevent the President from using a national emergency declaration to re-appropriate money for the wall.
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I will never tire of pointing out that the win margin on the left while winning 51/87 counties is a larger margin than the one on the right carrying 87/87.
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Wait, is this seriously their evidence? They do know trends are never permanent right? This is pretty week... Reversion to the mean isn’t an “irregularity” and neither is a continuation of some other trends an “irregularity.”
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This, ladies and gentlemen, is a legacy moment for
@POTUS
. The world is changing.
#ObamaenCuba
#ObamainCuba
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Total Dem turnout in Kentucky right now has topped 80% of the 2016 PRESIDENTIAL primary turnout. That's with ~200 precincts still out.
#KYGov
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Technically, Biden got ~81.3 million more votes than Obama got in 2014...
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The intercept is basically the Breitbart of the left.
I get that the Intercept is a partisan outlet but it's hardly appropriate to be retweeting donation links.
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While the post is by the woman's son, she has since confirmed this on Twitter.
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Result is now final in Florida
#HD72
. Democrats flip this seat.
The shift in this Romney/Trump district from the 2016 presidential margin is 12.05% towards the Democrats.
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I still find it pretty funny that a map with an R+2.8 efficiency gap is being held up as an example of Dem gerrymandering.
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For those unfamiliar, Biden is correct. I get this is a little in the weeds, but: This IS SARS. This is SARS-CoV-2.
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There are the Sanders campaign incomplete internal numbers
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2022 MN Primary Map Thread:
Starting things off is the
#MN05
DFL primary. Omar survived a challenge by Dom Samuels by just over 2 points.
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The STRIB/Mason-Dixon poll tested 4 Dems vs Trump in Minnesota:
Biden: 50-38 (Biden +12)
Warren: 51-40 (Warren +11)
Sanders: 49-40 (Sanders +9)
Klobuchar: 55-38 (Klobuchar +17)
President Donald Trump trails several leading Democratic candidates, as well as U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, at this point in the presidential campaign in the state, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.
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Democrats are well on their way to losing
#MTSen
because Bullock decided to go on a Presidential ego trip rather than make the Senate race competitive, but I digress.
Bullock says Democrats "are well on our way to losing this election"
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Final PA
#HD35
Margin:
Davis (D) - 73.47%
Walker-Montgomery (R) - 26.14%
That is a margin of 47.33%. Clinton won this district by 18.48% in 2016.
@Davisfor35th
outperformed
@HillaryClinton
's 2016 margin by 28.85%.
Oh... and he won 83/84 precincts.
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@JetCity_Dee
@NewswithEd
No, he works for the Kremlin's RT now. So, he is literally on Putin's payroll.
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Regardless of how the
#KYSen
Dem primary finishes, there is one thing Booker & McGrath have in common: neither will be a Senator in 2021.
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1. Romney 2021 couldn’t win the 2012 GOP nomination
2. Romney 2021 maybe could have won the 2012 Presidential General Election
Romney is such a fascinating Senator because he gets to be himself. Running for President meant Romney had take an awful lot of stances he didn't agree with.
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$8,000 plane tickets to Minneapolis? From where? Mars?
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Sanders taking a jab at Biden for *checks notes* kicking off
#PrideMonth
with the
@HRC
on Saturday.
@BernieSanders
Sanders starts with jab at those "who have chosen not to be in this room." Biden is the most notable candidate who opted not to come to this convention
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Republican Presidential candidate support over the past 30 years:
1992: Lost Popular Vote
1996: Lost Popular Vote
2000: Lost Popular Vote
2004: WON popular vote
2008: Lost Popular Vote
2012: Lost Popular Vote
2016: Lost Popular Vote
2020: Lost Popular Vote
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Also important to note that Republican turnout in 2022 in Minnesota actually was pretty good. It wasn’t just that Walz got the same turnout Biden got or Walz got in 2018.
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"He even awarded our nation’s highest civilian honor, not to the real American hero in the gallery — one of the last surviving Tuskegee Airmen—but a conservative media personality who has done as much as Trump himself to divide our nation. It was a shameful display."-
@JoeBiden
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@RandyCubs2317
@Eyes_On_It_All
@VaughnHillyard
@hughhewitt
The way to do it is in Minnesota. Paper ballots that are counted automatically on sight at the precinct. We count everything quickly because of the machines, but there is a paper backup of the actual ballots voters filled out. You put your own ballot in & see that it counted.
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New Arizona poll from
@GravisMarketing
:
#AZSen
:
🔵
@kyrstensinema
-43%
🔴
@MarthaMcSally
-39%
#AZGov
:
🔵
@dg4az
-42%
🔴
@dougducey
-41%
🔵
@SteveFarleyAZ
-39%
🔴Ducey -43%
GOP Primary:
McSally -36%
Ward -27%
Arpaio -24%
DJT approval 46%-50%
Link at RCP:
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#MNLeg
update just after 4 AM local time:
If nothing changes in recounts or the final few precincts remaining:
It looks like a DFL majority of 34-33 in the Senate and a DFL majority of 71-63 in the House.
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Cities that voted to the *RIGHT* of Minneapolis in 2020 for President include Milwaukee, New York City, Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Madison & Denver.
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