Abdul Rehman Najam
@AbdulRehman0292
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"It is a beautiful thing when a career and a passion come together" | Value Investor - Founder & CEO ARN Financial Advisors - #PSX - #Stocks - #Investments
University of Warwick 2015
Joined July 2017
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Pinned Tweet
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT ✅✅
I am thrilled to announce that today we are launching our 1 to 1 investment advisory throughout 🇵🇰🇵🇰
In this video, we have explained how we plan to grow your savings as well as protect them from any future downturn.
Inbox/comment for more details 🙂
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Problem with Pakistan👇🏻
- Income tax collection from salaried class: Rs264Bn
- Income tax collection from retailers & agriculture: less than Rs25Bn
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Reportedly, Qatar has shown interest in buying PIA for $2Bn+.
Qatar 🇶🇦🇶🇦 sees huge potential in direct routes of PIA to Europe, US & Canada.
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FBR admits it does not have the capacity to check assets of it's 25000 employees‼️
And we have given it the responsibilty to check assets of 100Mn+ 🇵🇰🇵🇰.
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🇵🇰🇵🇰 largest oil & gas producer, OGDC, has discovered 13Mn barrels oil & 219 bcf gas reserves in Bettani field, KP 👏🏻👏🏻
Current value of these reserves is approx $3Bn. Oil & Gas contribute about $15-20Bn/year to our import bill. Local discoveries will significantly reduce this
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Only 87 cars sold by Honda (Civic, City & BR-V) in May 2023‼️
Honda sold 35,000+ cars in FY22
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Reportedly, Govt of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 has ended free electricity for Grade 17 to 22 WAPDA employees 👏🏻👏🏻
Small impact on numbers but correct policy decision ✅✅
Next: Privatize DISCOs
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Rumours of FBR banning international travel for non-filers.
If this goes through, 🇵🇰🇵🇰 will be a different country in 3 years ✅✅
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UK Pound has crossed Rs400 in open market‼️
In 2018, it was Rs130.
Koi sharam hoti hai, koi haya hoti hai 🙏🏻🙏🏻
🇵🇰🇵🇰 has been on wealth destruction mode for last 5 years.
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85% of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 sellers on Alibaba are from a city with less than 0.5% of the total population
City of entrepreneurs: SIALKOT 👏🏻👏🏻
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Anyone who cares about 🇵🇰🇵🇰 economy, should listen to these 30mins from ex PM Shahid Khaqaan.
CPEC, IPPs, PIA & LNG👇🏻
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Fair value of PKR: $=Rs244, Bloomberg
Political instability & IMF program delays reason for excessive decline.
Bloomberg expecting PKR recovery after elections & new IMF program is agreed ✅✅
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For the first time in 🇵🇰🇵🇰 history, interest on loans will make up more than 50% of our budget‼️
Rs14.5 Trillion budget expected on 9th June, Rs7500Bn+ will be allocated just for paying interest on loans
No country can function like this 🙏🏻🙏🏻
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Pakistani salaried class carrying the burden of SOE losses👇🏻
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$2Bn received from 🇸🇦🇸🇦
Tomorrow IMF will approve another $1.2Bn.
Internationa commercial banks will start lending to 🇵🇰🇵🇰 again with the IMF stamp of approval
Journey of improving $$ reserves has started ✅✅
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- $4Bn reserves
- $30Bn repayments in next 2 years
- Dynamics of new IMF programme
- Political instability – elections/no elections??
- What will 🇵🇰🇵🇰 economy look like in FY24, can it continue like this?
- How to prepare yourself
🧵 Let’s build some scenarios 🧵
1/22
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450,000+ 🇵🇰🇵🇰 have left the country in 2023 so far‼️
Almost all commodity prices are linked to international prices whilst local salaries are linked to local economic performance.
PKR devaluation is making life impossible for lower/middle class.
Remittances is no long term
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World Bank report says Karachi (a city of 20Mn+) needs 15,000 buses.
How many do we have: only 1029‼️
When will we 🇵🇰🇵🇰 understand the importance of public transport
- Public transport is a great equalizer and promotes social class mobility
- Cheaper & safer than private
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Illegal 1.5KM gas pipeline discovered near Islamabad by SNGPL‼️
Allegedly, gas was being supplied to a housing society.
International value of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 gas distribution losses is more than $1Bn per year.
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Mobile phone prices expected to decline in 🇵🇰🇵🇰.
Pakistan customs has revised import value of mobile phones and allowed higher depreciation on used mobiles, reducing the amount of duties and taxes ✅✅
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Sort out power sector issues before it becomes a national security risk‼️
Just two steps and 95% of the problems will be solved:
- Privatize DISCOs
- End single buyer model, let new IPPs find their own customers
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Eid economy 🇵🇰🇵🇰 down from $10Bn in 2018 to $1.5Bn in 2023‼️
Unemployment & inflation making life super difficult for everyone
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Islamabad's electricity DISCO, IESCO, asks for police protection at it's offices‼️
Govt of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 should also send law enforcement agencies to areas where electricity is being stolen and bills are not being paid.
Honest bill payers cannot carry the burden of thieves anymore.
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Someone please tell PM Shehbaz Sharif that 9000MW power plants on imported LNG & coal were installed during PMLN's last tenure 2013-2018‼️
Best solution is to focus on reducing 25% losses due to theft and lack of bills collection ✅✅
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Yesterday was a really bad day for 🇵🇰🇵🇰 oil & gas industry
- Zero bids received for LNG cargoes this winter
- Govt auctioned 18 oil & gas exploration blocks, received interest in only 3 of them
International suppliers not interested in LNG supply due to 🇵🇰🇵🇰 default risk.
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Major development in 🇵🇰🇵🇰 automobile sector
Indus Motor Company will be exporting to Toyota Egypt. This is the first time a Pakistani firm has become part of Toyota Global supply chain ✅✅
Other local automobile players should follow suit & earn $$ for 🇵🇰🇵🇰
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Petrol Rs305 & diesel Rs312‼️
Citizens of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 continue to pay for bad economic policies.
No.1 cause of inflation IMO is not having the will to tax the holy cows (retailers, real estate, agriculture etc).
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Elite capture in 🇵🇰🇵🇰
This why you will find all the top businessmen in Islamabad and not in Europe/US to develop new export markets‼️
Rent seeking via duty protections & access to subsidised state resources. This has to end for 🇵🇰🇵🇰 to progress
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Good news for internet users in far flung areas of 🇵🇰🇵🇰
Caretaker Govt has approved satellite communication services, Starlink can now provide internet services in Pakistan.
Expensive option, but still provides quality internet for freelancers in remote areas.
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Problem with Pakistan👇🏻
- Income tax collection from salaried class: Rs264Bn
- Income tax collection from retailers & agriculture: less than Rs25Bn
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Rs7Bn scam in Pakistan Customs, 3 inspectors dismissed‼️
Officers were importing duty free phones, watches & other high duty items under the name of a charity.
Charitable organisation was unaware of any such imports, old customs system One-Customs was used for clearance.
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ARAMCO 🇸🇦🇸🇦 entering Pakistan in collaboration with Sitara Group.
40% stake being acquired in GO Petroleum by World's largest oil & gas company.
Improves chances of $10Bn investment in a new refinery in Pakistan ✅✅
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85% of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 Sellers on Alibaba are from a city with less than 0.5% of the Total Population
City of Entrepreneurs: SIALKOT 👏🏻👏🏻
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PM Shehbaz Sharif in Baku 🇦🇿🇦🇿 today
Meanwhile, ECC will discuss approval of an LNG supply deal with Azerbaijan's SOCAR (1 cargo per month)
Govt of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 is not willing to pay $5 on time to our local producers but is happy to pay $9-10 for new LNG deals.
All this is happening
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Another sign that wealthy 🇵🇰🇵🇰 are shifting their wealth abroad due to economic destruction in last few years.
Almost 3400 new companies registered in Dubai by Pakistanis in January-June 2023, 59% higher than last year‼️
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We will use NADRA data and what not to develop a petrol subsidy program
But we will not use the same NADRA data to identify people living lavish lifestyles whilst paying zero tax
Because of these rent seekers we have to pay 30% tax on salary and 18-25% sales tax 🙏🏻🙏🏻
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Whilst PIA will be making Rs100Bn+ loss this year, private local airlines are expanding their services ✅✅
Air Sial has launched it's first international flight to UAE from Sialkot.
Privatise PIA 🙏🏻🙏🏻
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Update on $10Bn Saudi 🇸🇦🇸🇦 Refinery Investment‼️
Aramco has demanded cabinet approval & political consensus before making any investment
Barrick Gold required similar guarantees for Reko Diq project, foreign investors have zero confidence in 🇵🇰🇵🇰 long term policies
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PTI Govt signed agreements with 40+ IPPs in 2020 which converted capacity payments to PKR at fixed $=168
$500Mn/year capacity payments were converted into PKR excluding Govt owned IPPs, saving Rs50Bn+ every year
🇵🇰🇵🇰 needs similar negotiations with CPEC investors ✅✅
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PKR devaluation is making 🇵🇰🇵🇰 power sector unviable.
Rs5.40 expected quarterly tariff adjustment for April-June 2023 to be collected from honest bill payers in the coming months.
Recent devaluation will also be collected from honest bill payers, while theft will keep
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New development in $10Bn Saudi 🇸🇦🇸🇦refinery project
Five SOEs (OGDC, PPL, GHPL, PARCO & PSO) will each own 10% stake in the project while Saudi Aramco will invest 50% of the equity.
An MOU will be signed today between the six partners ✅✅
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HERO ❤️
Cutting wings of untaxed sectors without any noise 🙌🏼
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Under IMF program, Srilanka 🇱🇰🇱🇰 will be reducing electricity prices by 20-30%.
🇵🇰🇵🇰 can do the same if reforms are carried out with a solid plan.
- End single buyer model
- Privatize DISCOs
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New business opportunity in 🇵🇰🇵🇰
Import luxury vehicle duty free using relationships with diplomatic missions.
Enjoy the vehicle for two years, then sell it at market rate. 100-200% profit due to zero duty at import.
SRO 923(I) issued by FBR ✅✅
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After $$, petrol/diesel price also expected to cross Rs300‼️
Not much to do with international oil prices but a lot to do with how we run 🇵🇰🇵🇰 economy.
PKR devaluation and the resulting inflation is the result of not taxing the untaxed.
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For the first time, IMF pushing for correct taxaxtion reforms in 🇵🇰🇵🇰
Bringing agriculture & retail sector into the tax net should be the structural benchmark for next IMF review in November 2023
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World Bank highlights huge tax potential from two untaxed sectors👇🏻
- Agriculture - Rs1000Bn/year
- Real Estate - Rs2000Bn/year
Add retailers to this list & we can increase tax collection by Rs4000-5000Bn per year and reduce burden on poor & salaried individuals 🙏🏻🙏🏻
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Unsung economic hero of FY2024.
Building $$ reserves for Pakistan without any noise.
Keep doing this until we reach $20Bn reserves ✅✅
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Chinese 🇨🇳🇨🇳 company, Sunwalk Group, has started laying 16,000km of optic cable in Pakistan.
Subject to getting right of way, $100Mn will be invested by the Chinese company.
Optic cable infrastructure is at the heart of realising the dream of digital 🇵🇰🇵🇰
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Mr Najam Ali doing what he does best 😂😂
When you cannot reply to facts debunking your analysis, you have zero right to criticize/analyse Govt policies
May Allah help him improve his mindset
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I disown this tweet after 45% tax has been applied on salaried class in revised budget.
Retailers/wholesalers and exporters have been brought under tax net, but more taxes on salaried class is just ridiculous.
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Govt considering cross subsidizing petrol. Rs225-250 for motorcycles & Rs300-325 for cars‼️
You know what will happen in 🇵🇰🇵🇰, motorcycles will bring in sasta petrol every day to fill up tanks of V8s
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Smuggling has brought the mighty PSO to its knees‼️
PSO has cancelled two diesel cargo orders from Kuwait as Iranian diesel has captured the local 🇵🇰🇵🇰 market
Reportedly, all heavy traffic and public buses have switched to Iranian diesel which is Rs60-70/liter cheaper
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After 50Bn yuan currency swap agreement with Saudi Arabia, China 🇨🇳🇨🇳 will be purchasing almost half of it's oil imports without using $$.
Iran & Russia are already supplying oil to China against chinese yuan.
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A force of 1,000+ people is trying to arrest Imran Khan‼️
Meanwhile, today PKR 🇵🇰🇵🇰 has matched Srilankan rupee in terms of devaluation
Srilankan Rupee since default: 63%
PKR since VONC: 63%
Can anyone reverse this damage 🙏🏻🙏🏻
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Once again it has been proved, in 🇵🇰🇵🇰 we will only increase tax burden on existing tax payers‼️
Recently, acting CM Punjab turned down a prosopal to impose tax on agricultural income (5 acre+ land only)
While FM Ishaq Dar has increased tax rate on salaried individuals once
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Good news for 🇵🇰🇵🇰 IT freelancers.
IT minister said freelancers will be able to receive foreign payments in Pakistan via Paypal.
Formal launch next week, 11th January.
Paypal will not operate directly but payments will be received through Paypal via third party arrangement.
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Big action by 🇵🇰🇵🇰 interim govt.
Ministry of Industries & production has suspended licenses of three Japanese auto giants‼️
When you cannot even export 2% of your imports, it says a lot about the productivity levels of our car assemblers.
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Yesterday, Lahore High Court abolished payment of 1% annual tax on real estate‼️
FBR has issued a notification that property transfers can happen without clearing liability of 1% rental tax of previous years.
🇵🇰🇵🇰 Plotistan Zindabaad 👏🏻👏🏻
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Whilst 🇵🇰🇵🇰 car manufacturers cannot even export small car parts, Millat Tractors is expanding it's wings in the export markets.
Company will be exporting almost 3000 tractors in FY24 to Africa, Middle East, Afghanistan & South America.
Tractors industry is definitely a success
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So much noise over capacity payments being the reason behind very high electricity bills in 🇵🇰🇵🇰.
This is just a strategy to shift the blame and make a few people the villain whereas the problem is ous system. Here is an explanation👇🏻
- Capacity payments will be approx Rs2
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Gwadar declared tax free zone by provincial Govt of Balochistan. No provincial taxes will apply ✅✅
Balochistan Govt appealing to Federal Govt to do the same.
I believe income tax exemption will benefit the region. However, sales tax exemption will turn Gwadar into another
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PTI Govt signed agreements with 40+ IPPs in 2020 which converted capacity payments to PKR at fixed $=168
$500Mn/year capacity payments were converted into PKR excluding Govt owned IPPs, saving Rs50Bn+ every year
🇵🇰🇵🇰 needs similar negotiations with CPEC investors ✅✅
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From all honest taxpayers of 🇵🇰🇵🇰
Thank you IMF 🙌🏼
Next target: Retailers. Installing POS machines on all major retail outlets should be prior action for next review ✅✅
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Major develoment in budget👇🏻
Property owners will not be able to sell their real estate assets unless they have paid/cleared their liabilities of 1% annual tax imposed last year
Positive tax measure 👏🏻👏🏻
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Asian Development Bank has backed out of financing Malir Expressway‼️
39 KM road was supposed to connect DHA Karachi with M-9 motorway near DHA City
Local farmers of Malir managed to convince ADB to drop the project from its funding program
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Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦🇸🇦 has communicated that it will only invest in $10Bn refinery if Pakistan approves
1) 7.5% deemed duty for 25 years
2) 20 year tax holiday
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Night view of Thar Coal Block 1 Shanghai Electric 😍
This 1320MW plant is producing approx 8-10Bn units (kwh) annually at variable cost of less than Rs6/kwh 💯💯
Thar coal is 🇵🇰🇵🇰 energy lifeline
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Report on oil smuggling from Iran - PM office👇🏻
- Almost 3Bn litres smuggled causing loss of Rs200Bn tax revenue.
- Close to 1000 pumps involved in smuggled fuel supply.
- 100+ politicians & govt officials also involved.
- 700+ currency dealers facilitating the network.
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Shaukat Tarin accepts Ishaq Dar's challenge of live debate on 🇵🇰🇵🇰 Economy ✅✅
1) Why Exports didnt increase in 2013-2017?
2) Why PTI ran record fiscal deficits?
Debate should be atleast 3 hours with 50% time dedicated to future policies
Who should moderate this debate??
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Aramco has completed pre-feasibility of 350K-450K barrrels per day refinery in 🇵🇰🇵🇰, FEED study will be next.
7.5% duty protection for 25 years & 20 year tax holiday has been provided under refinery policy.
Refinery will cost approx $10Bn, adding a petrochemical complex will
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Something amazing I read today.
In a remote village of KPK, 30 year old Shaukat Hussain is providing electricity to 100 village homes for just Rs200 per month 👏🏻👏🏻
He has built a small hydro power plant for Rs100,000 and charges Rs200 to cover maintenance costs.
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Good news for upcoming 🇵🇰🇵🇰 IMF review.
FBR has collected Rs2000Bn+ taxes in July-September 2023.
IMF 1st review target of Rs1980Bn FBR tax collection achieved ✅✅
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Pakistan has qualified for UK's new duty free import scheme (DCTS), new version of GSP+.
🇵🇰🇵🇰 exporters will continue to have duty free access to UK markets
This positive development points towards GSP+ continuation with EU countries as well, expiring end of 2023
Trade with EU
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Khawaja Asif has lost Sialkot.
127000 votes for Rihana Dar, only 80,000 for Khawaja Asif.
Very few polling stations left.
Courtesy:
@raftardotcom
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Interloop becomes 🇵🇰🇵🇰 no.1 exporter for FY24 👏🏻👏🏻
This healthy rivalry between Interloop & Style Textiles is benefitting Pakistan, combined $1Bn+ exports for Pakistan ✅✅
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Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦🇸🇦 has conveyed it's interest in becoming a partner in $100Bn+ Reko Diq project.
Impact of Reko Diq on 🇵🇰🇵🇰 Economy👇🏻
- $3Bn/year worth Gold & Copper exports from FY28 onwards
- $4Bn FDI in next 5 years
- Rs40-50Bn/year royalties for Govt of Balochistan
-
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Savings from Russian 🇷🇺🇷🇺 crude oil only Rs1-2/litre‼️
Higher than expected furnace oil yield (60% vs 40-50% expected) has wiped out the expected savings from cheap Russian oil.
🇵🇰🇵🇰 needs a deep conversion refinery to benefit from Russian crude, construction of such a refinery
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Brain drain is real, and it is speeding up‼️
Approx 40,000 highly qualified 🇵🇰🇵🇰 have emigrated in last two years as Pakistan suffers from low economic growth and high inflation.
We are losing a lot of innovative ideas and future leaders due to weak economic policies.
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$$ crisis has forced auto part manufacturers to look into export opportunities.
For the first time, an auto part maker has produced hydraulic punching and clinching machines for export to UAE ✅✅
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Two units of solar panels plus battery installed in Hunza by Agha Khan Foundation.
3.6MW solar will cost $6m & provide electricity to almost 11,000 homes in Hunza ✅✅
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Our system is broken‼️
🇵🇰🇵🇰 stock market is valued at approx $40Bn, Indian stock market is worth $4500Bn. More than 100 times.
Pakistanis hold approx $15-20Bn worth properties in Dubai, equal to Indians at $17Bn.
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Today $$ has crossed Rs300‼️
Wont be long before it reaches Rs400 unless we do two things:
- Tax the untaxed population (retailers, agriculture & service professionals)
- Increase our exports
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After reserves tax, we are hearing rumours of wealth tax‼️
Wealth tax may sound like taxing the rich, but in Pakistan only people who declare their wealth (tax filers) will be squeezed further.
Non tax filers & tax evaders will keep enjoying. 🇵🇰🇵🇰 is a heaven on Earth for them.
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PESCO (Peshawar electric disco) is shutting down all feeders having 80%+ losses ✅✅
8 such feeders have been shutdown in Bannu. PESCO contributes Rs100Bn+ loss to 🇵🇰🇵🇰 exchequer per year, this is even higher than PIA.
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Record bumper remittances in May 2024, $3.24Bn. Highest ever in Pakistan's history ✅✅
High remittances in Eid season will help 🇵🇰🇵🇰 maintain $$ reserves until next IMF program is finalized.
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Almost $7Bn commitments received by 🇵🇰🇵🇰 in Geneva
$4.2Bn Islamic Development Bank
$2Bn World Bank
€500Mn European Union
Well done Shehbaz Sharif & Ishaq Dar👏🏻👏🏻
Now lets get IMF onboard and get 🇵🇰🇵🇰 economy back on track ✅✅
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A province of 100Mn+ people collected only Rs200Bn in taxes. That is Rs2000/person ($7 per year to be precise)‼️
Tax agriculture & real estate 🙏🏻🙏🏻
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Tax on cash withdrawals is back‼️
0.6% tax on cash withdrawals for non-filers
Currency in circulation 🚀🚀
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🇵🇰🇵🇰 $$ reserves rising nicely, now close to $4.5Bn
Almost $1Bn increase in last two weeks. With new IMF program, $$ inflows will further improve in the coming months.
Please no more politics with the economy 🙏🏻🙏🏻
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Positive development in controlling Rs8.5 trillion currency in circulation ✅✅
RAAST stage 3 being launched by SBP, person to merchant. 4 banks already onboarded.
Merchants will be able to receive funds at zero fee, very imporatnt for documenting small transactions.
RAAST &
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Suzuki Alto AGS in 2024 is more expensive than Civic 1.5 turbo when it was launched in 2016‼️
Last 8 years of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 economy have been disasterous so say the least, middle class has been wiped out.
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This is how you fight elite capture & rent seekers. Create better options, not by shouting chor chor‼️
First summer after completion of Thar coal & nuclear power plants, 🇵🇰🇵🇰 has turned from an importer of furnace oil to an exporter ✅✅
164,000 tons of FO exported in April,
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Golden opportunity, please do it asap 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Reportedly, Pakistan Steel Mills management is being pressurized to reinstate 5,300 employees retrenched in 2020 & 2021
These employees were given a golden shake & Rs13Bn in compensation (approx 2 years salary)
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What is most concerning about 🇵🇰🇵🇰 is the obsession of our decision makers for short term solutions
- 1Mn tons sugar smuggled, arrest mill owners instead of controlliing smuggling
- Rs500Bn+ wasted in electricity theft but blame the IPP investors
- $$ crosses Rs300, blame the
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Retailers & traders celebrating 75 years of tax evasion 👏🏻👏🏻
Guy on the left was instrumental in reversing Rs3000 fixed tax imposed by Miftah Ismail last year
Guy in the middle is our finance minister‼️
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$$ interbank up to Rs294‼️
How long will citizens of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 continue to pay the costs of not doing structural reforms.
New wave of inflation is coming & the only reason is that 90% of the people do not pay their fair share in taxes.
Social contract is broken, 🇵🇰🇵🇰 cannot
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Capacity payments in 🇵🇰🇵🇰 power sector have increased from Rs200Bn in 2013 to approx Rs2200Bn in 2024.
Capacity payments make up 70% of generation cost. Crazy right?
Lets take a deep dive to understand this issue👇🏻
In FY14, 🇵🇰🇵🇰 produced 95Bn units (32Bn from Hydel, 19Bn from
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$2Bn from Saudi Arabia is the domino that needs to fall for 🇵🇰🇵🇰 to have any chance of achieving $6Bn funding for successful IMF review
Saudis are demanding political stability, first time ever establishment is struggling to convince 🇸🇦🇸🇦
Tough times ahead
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Small but significant privatization completed in Pakistan.
Heavy Electrical Complex sold for Rs1.4Bn to IMS Engineering. Rs750Mn loan of Bank of Khyber also to be paid by the buyer.
Pakistan economy does not work with Rs500Bn+ SOE losses, privatization is the way forward ✅✅
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This is the power of Public Private Partnership (3P) 💯💯
Rs307Bn Hyderabad Sukkur motorway will be built with only Rs9.5Bn contribution from Govt of 🇵🇰🇵🇰
Over 25 years, NHA will earn Rs408Bn fee & national exchequer will get approx Rs908Bn in corporate taxes
Due to
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