Delighted to see our paper in the #AER Our paper challenges two popular approaches to industrial policy when dealing with scale-related market imperfections. 🧵 1/3: We find that trade restrictions are an ineffective tool for scale correction, even when designed optimally.

RT @KaiArvai: Call for Papers!📢 The @banquedefrance is organizing a workshop on International Trade and Industrial Policy in a changing wo…

@AlekseevME @hkust Congratulations!

RT @florian_krammer: 1) Since there is a lot of confusion about the reduction of the overhead rate on NIH grants to 15% (see here: https://…

RT @aferrari0: Three more weeks to apply to our workshop!

@zivoren Congrats, Oren. Great paper!

RT @JIntlEcon: New at JIE: "Banking complexity in the global economy" by Raoul Minetti (@raoul_minetti), Giacomo Romanini (@RomaniniGiacomo…

RT @cremieuxrecueil: 1870-1909, tariffs on imported manufactured goods in the U.S. were associated with reduced labor productivity in affec…

RT @emollick: Economist @joshgans uses o1-pro to generate a (minor, fun) paper in an hour based on an idea of his, and it gets published in…

RT @sayashk: Can Deep Research automate the work of research assistants? I compared OpenAI and Google Deep Research for assistance with an…

RT @KyleLHandley: Trade policy uncertainty raises prices, even if the tariffs don't increase. Evidence from Brexit referendum.

RT @ALashkaripour: I have several papers that explore tariff wars using economic models. Here’s what they tell us about likely outcomes (🧵)…

@arpitrage Thanks! I do this calculation in a different paper published in JEEA. The excess burden per dollar of US income tax revenue replaced with tariff revenue is $2.70 (this includes the cost of retaliation)

@handleym99 And how does this relate to my thread? The results I presented contain no normative judgment; they simply outline the economic cost of a global tariff war. If there are non-economic benefits as you claim, they must still be weighed against these economic costs.

RT @int_mon_econ: It's high time to have another look at interesting papers like this one! "The cost of a global tariff war: A sufficient…

RT @AndrewG_PhD: Let's put a 25% tariff into context. Here's a (brief) US tariff history back to 1900. In 1972 the US average tariff rat…

@ggadurand Yes but how is that relevant in this context? The EU can be fragile as showcased by Brexit. In any case, see other paper: the EU remaining intact does not change the big picture implications.

@ggadurand Yes, but under the “assumption” that customs unions (like the EU) don’t dissolve in the event of a full-blown tariff war. I have another paper that does the analysis without intra-EU tariffs , and the big picture implications don’t change by much. Link:

@amine_ouazad I agree! That’s an interesting direction. I’m currently working on a related paper on the formation of segmented trade blocs, but there’s certainly more to explore by taking the cooperative game theory approach more seriously.

@TradeDiversion It’s not reported in the paper, but the US gains from trade (relative to autarky) are a little over 3% in the calibrated model

@amine_ouazad The simulations explore scenarios where countries act in their best interest following the breakdown of trade cooperation. In a tariff war, unilateral liberalization would not be beneficial for the liberalizing country, at least from the perspective of standard trade models.