Anastasia Amoroso
@AAmoroso_1
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Chief Investment Strategist at @icapitalnetwork . Global markets & trade ideas. Alternative investments & disruptive technologies. Views and opinions are my own.
New York City
Joined October 2012
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I am traveling for business this week. And so are many others! According to
@TripActions
there's been a surge in business travel bookings since August. More to go in 2022.
#travelisback
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Crypto conferences are better with friends, great to see you
@LizYoungStrat
@StocktonKatie
at
@consensus2022
!
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SPX looks set to close right around 100-day moving average. And stocks are looking oversold. China risks are not systemic to U.S. stocks, I see this pullback as a buying opportunity.
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I can't conclude that the low we’ve seen is “the” low. It’s ok to nibble now but it’s also ok to give up some potential upside to get more clarity first. To call a bottom, we'd need to see de-escalation + better growth outlook. Growth is being revised down instead.
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Not calling market bottom (until economic data troughs, inflation eases and/or Fed pauses), but historically long-term investors benefited from buying stocks when it feels terrible to do so.👇
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There is now a 78% chance of a first rate hike in March. SPX closed down -1.6%, led by Tech down -3.1%. History suggests that on average the period of 3 mo. before and 3 mo. after the 1st rate hike can be choppy but market returns (incl. Tech) were positive 12 months after.
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Nvidia’s earnings report is a perfect illustration of why the multi-year potential of AI is *not* yet priced into the stocks - analyst estimates tend to be conservative and rise when companies provide guidance and visibility. We would buy the dips in AI beneficiary stocks. Thank
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Powell sparked a rally (again) with a very balanced approach & a chance for "soft-ish landing". Add low positioning, extreme bearishness, resumption of buybacks and we are likely looking at a near-term rally. I'd be a buyer of oversold tech stocks here, as highlighted last week.
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$FB understandably is dragging down Nasdaq 100 today (it’s ~5% of the index). As analyst downgrades trickle in (so far 4 and counting), where is $FB money going to go? Most likely into other tech stocks - and other mega cap tech (also in the Nasdaq) are good contenders.
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It's a battle of top-down macro sellers vs bottoms-up fundamental buyers in the Nasdaq right now. Valuations broadly are still a concern (4-5x turns above pre-pandemic levels) but positioning in growth vs value stocks has corrected massively.
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The use case of
#BTC
is being validated as we speak - ability to transfer value quickly and reliably when governments are not reliable and when traditional payment rails are not an option.
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Hello from Uruguay by the way! Here to speak at a conference this week on Fed/rates/market outlook, but most concerns right now are squarely about Russia/Ukraine.
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This Memorial Day remembering the brave men and women for their immense sacrifice to protect our freedom. With deep gratitude today and always.
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Energy is leading the gains today, as dollar weakens. Assuming the Fed doesn’t taper until *after* delta cases peak, this could be the relief catalyst energy stocks need to rally further.
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Thanks to many of you who have been flagging fake impersonator accounts. This is my only REAL account
@AAmoroso_1
and thank you for following me here! Working to get
@verified
and until then please continue to block and report any others. Have a great weekend!
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Thanks
@CNBCOvertime
@ScottWapnerCNBC
for the important conversation yesterday about why inflation might be peaking and odds of a soft landing might be rising. And ... it's great to be back on set!
As investors await Friday's CPI report,
@icapitalnetwork
's
@aamoroso_1
reacts to the Fed's hesitance to say inflation has peaked.
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The clear message from Chair Powell today on rate hikes was "we will be patient" and that the liftoff test now depends on max employment, more so than inflation, and it hasn't been met yet. This is a clear positive for markets, with growth solid & tightening cycle not imminent.
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My heart breaks for so many families in Uvalde tonight. Your loss is unthinkable and the pain is unimaginable. My thoughts are with you.💔
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What’s been behind the tech sell-off? Most likely hedge fund de-grossing into year-end on concerns of much lower liquidity. According to Goldman, HFs sold US Tech at the fastest pace in years and are now underweight Tech by 4.5% vs. SPX, the lowest level ever on their record.
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Excited to join
@APompliano
and crew at 12pm ET today on
@TheBestBizzShow
to talk markets, Fed, inflation, crypto and more! Hope you can join us!
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Been away for work the last few days, but look forward to joining
@SquawkCNBC
around 6:30am ET tomorrow with reaction to today’s Fed decision and outlook for markets post the Fed.
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There is clearly more selling pressure from all parts of the market still. Poor market structure makes it worse. If you are buying, be a stock picker right now. Have strong conviction in companies you buy. Make sure they have good earnings visibility. Have a 12 mo.+ time horizon.
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Good Monday morning! Look forward to being back in the office and back to the markets today after a week away for spring break. Any special questions that I should tackle in this week’s commentary?
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Some asked if after yesterday's sharp reversal we have priced in too much fear. One way to gauge the "fear factor" in the options markets is to look at the difference between put and call volatility. It is (almost) back to March 2020 levels.
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The 2s10s yield curve has just
#inverted
(briefly for now). Historically, it has been one of the recession risk red flags. However, also historically, the stock market has not peaked until months after the inversion. Of course, there are exceptions, please see the chart below.
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Our first episode of Alternative Viewpoints with
@Sonnenshein
, CEO of
@Grayscale
, is out now! We discuss why it's still early days for crypto, how to value it and of course, chat about
#Metaverse
, de-centralized everything, and much more. Check it out now:
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My quick take on what's driving markets. Still liking the travel re-opening trade on a pullback, including energy.
Catch a replay of today's
@CNBCClosingBell
featuring iCapital Chief Investment Strategist
@AAmoroso_1
.
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Great to join
@CNBCOvertime
@michaelsantoli
yesterday!
"If we are, in fact, headed for a recession, then the market is absolutely not prepared for that," says
@icapitalnetwork
's
@AAmoroso_1
.
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Powell managed to strike the measured tone the mkts needed to hear – best way to promote full employment and (eventually) 2% inflation is to prolong the expansion. Against the current uncertainty, this means a more “careful” approach to rate hikes. Less hawkish Fed is a positive.
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Clearly that was a wrong call for today, no rally here, but this is exactly when I'd be adding to tech stocks with valuations in the bottom of 5 yr range, positive earnings, growing at 15%+. Would also consider selling puts given the jump in implied volatility.
Powell sparked a rally (again) with a very balanced approach & a chance for "soft-ish landing". Add low positioning, extreme bearishness, resumption of buybacks and we are likely looking at a near-term rally. I'd be a buyer of oversold tech stocks here, as highlighted last week.
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It's all about the supply chain! Disruptions are everywhere but we could be at peak shortages now and they should begin to abate soon. In this week's commentary, we take a look at 3 charts to watch for signs of bottlenecks easing. Check it out here:
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This is a major problem for stocks right now – economic growth is slowing and earnings revisions are trending down. Recession or not, historically this setup was not a positive one for stocks, until downward revisions troughed. We are not there yet.
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As mentioned yday, the broad market wasn't a screaming buy-the-dip yet because it wasn't screening oversold and even if Omicron is a non-event, the Fed's hawk talk will be. Today we are getting both - a hawkish pivot + moving closer to oversold conditions. Still, not there yet.
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Thank you
@BeckyQuick
@SquawkCNBC
for having me on this morning to discuss the post-Fed rally. Here is my summary of why I am a lot more positive than the last few weeks that this dip could finally be a buy for a more sustainable, tradable rally ahead.
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Tech is under pressure today but implied volatility for both the Nasdaq and SPX puts is near early 2020 low levels. This gives investors a chance to keep long Tech positions but layer in some near-term inexpensive hedges after the stellar run-up.
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Today's jobs report shows broad-based strength and should be a green light for the Fed to speed up the pace of rate hikes. At 3.6%, the unemployment rate is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, but interest rates are still far from it.
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Corporates - largest buyers in the market - have been absent in Jan due to earnings blackout period. By the end of this week 17% of S&P500 companies will be out of blackout and able to buy back shares at their discretion. This will ramp further in Feb and should support markets.
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Look forward to joining this crew today and discussing our top 2022 investment ideas!
Join
@ScottWapnerCNBC
and the committee today on
#HalftimeReport
at 12p ET!
@Stephanie_Link
,
@BrynTalkington
,
@jlebenthal
,
@Downtown
,
@AAmoroso_1
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For those who asked about my top 3 picks for 2022 on
@HalftimeReport
the other day - I'd be using Q1 choppiness to add to 1) cybersecurity (select names), 2) biotech, 3) REITs. With a 6-12 months + investment time horizon. And stay long energy.
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In this week's commentary we explored the state of the
#housing
markets in the U.S. and Europe and discussed why we see a continued opportunity in multi-family residential
#realestate
.
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Here is our full take on the multi-year opportunity in
#AI
and why buying the dips in this yet-to-be-fully-priced-in megatrend is an opportunity for long-term investors.
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Yield curve steepens on the Fed's taper announcement but no rate hike hints. This is bullish for cyclical assets, like semiconductors.
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Kicking off the week with the
@HalftimeReport
crew. Hope you can join us!
Join
@ScottWapnerCNBC
and the committee today at 12p ET on
#HalftimeReport
@BrynTalkington
@stephenLweiss
@jlebenthal
@terranovajoe
@AAmoroso_1
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Bottom line of the Powell presser is the Fed doesn’t have a crystal ball but is intent on bringing down inflation which Powell admitted is “worse” than he had anticipated. All in, there is now more variability around every Fed meeting. Good thing the next one is not until March.
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Why can’t any rally hold? Everyone now knows the outlook is tough – high prices are crowding out discretionary spending just as inventories have been built up. The Fed is also using the wealth effect to slow demand - if portfolios are down, we might have less confidence to spend.
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This week’s commentary is here 👇
Enjoy the tech stock rally, but perhaps don’t get too comfortable. Historical precedent and seasonality say the rally may have some room to run, but yield curve inversion has increased one-year recession risks, suggesting it may be wise to layer in hedges.
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Look forward to joining the
@HalftimeReport
crew at 12pm ET today to discuss toppy markets, semiconductors, retail, oil and more.
Join
#HalftimeReport
at 12p ET with
@brendavingiello
,
@jlebenthal
,
@stephenLweiss
,
@terranovajoe
, and
@AAmoroso_1
!
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Taking stock after this week: SPX multiple is 16.5x (back to pre-COVID level) and SPX -18% drawdown from peak implies a 57% 1-yr recession probability, above that implied by eco. indicators. At ~3,900 SPX is close to fair value (for now), and this could be interim support.
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Last week we dealt with many of the risks that needed to be dealt with, this is encouraging. The market is a buy, including opportunities in software, travel re-opening stocks, energy and biotech. Had a chance to discuss more with
@CNBCClosingBell
yesterday.
Kick off the week with
@AAmoroso_1
's market outlook amid the omicron variant and a recap on opportunities in the tech and travel sectors. Check out her
@CNBCClosingBell
interview.
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Semis + 2.8% today, +7% MTD vs +1.45% for SPX. As much as I like semis fundamentally, this move now looks technically overextended. For tactical investors who bought the dip in early Oct, this is a good time to book some profits and for those looking to add, do it on a pullback.
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With Jan reset behind us, Feb could be a strong rebound month for stocks. Earnings, buybacks and a potential short squeeze in most shorted stocks could drive the upside. $ARKK had a +9.5% day yesterday, I expect there should be a further tactical bounce in “spec tech” ahead.
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The easing in core inflation to 6.5% yoy vs 6.6% expected (or +0.3% mom vs +0.5% prior month) is entirely due to the drop in used car prices. Add in Carmax's report of -5.2% decline in its Q4 retail sales, and this easing is likely a result of (at least in part) slower demand.
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This sell-off cleared a lot of pandemic-era froth - in valuations and positioning. Now it's time to focus on the positives - the Fed will likely strike a less hawkish tone today, cloud spend (& guide) per $MSFT is very strong, and corporate buybacks will soon pick up steam.
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After today we are further on the way to resetting software valuations to more compelling levels. Most corrections in tech should be bought, right now I would be adding gradually and selectively. Top idea in tech remains cybersecurity - names with growth rates > multiples.
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Inflation print at 7.5% is hotter than expected. 2-year UST yield jumps +10 bps to 1.47%, suggesting the markets are calling for the Fed to do more to rein in inflation. With Fed badly behind the curve, I think 50 bps rate hike in March is on the table.
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Gm. As I discussed with
@andrewrsorkin
@SquawkCNBC
yesterday, it is too early for investors to call an all-clear as I worry about the unintended consequences of sanctions + escalation of fighting and cyber warfare. Watching 2 catalysts to find a bottom.
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Yes, Fed rate hikes are good for banks (that's now priced in), but today's earnings remind us that there is a LOT more to consider - trading activity, M&A, lending and notably, expenses. Financials EPS growth is projected to be down in '22 as activity normalizes, expenses rise.
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See you at noon ET today!
Join
@ScottWapnerCNBC
and the committee today at 12p ET on
#HalftimeReport
@Stephanie_Link
@Jason_Snipe
@jlebenthal
@jonnajarian
@AAmoroso_1
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Tech stocks are under pressure again this morning. After the recent quick 8% pullback, parts of tech are starting to look attractive. I like adding to *semiconductors* on this pullback, check out this week's commentary for more ⬇️
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Who bought the dip yesterday and will they again today? Retail and institutions were both heavy sellers yesterday morning but bought the dip in the afternoon.
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Impressive turnaround for the Nasdaq again today. Encouraging to see buyers stepping in around the key 200-day m. ave. The degree of selling + valuation correction (from 17x EV/Fwd Sales to 10x now) in software over the last few weeks made many stocks a whole lot more attractive.
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There is a rising chance of a soft-ish landing, in our view, and that is an opportunity for financials. This week's commentary is here.👇
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Great to be back on set in person! Thank you
@BloombergTV
for having me in the studio today. So nice to see you
@adsteel
, thank you and
@GuyJohnsonTV
for a great inflation-hedging / crypto chat.
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Great to join the
@HalftimeReport
Investment Committee today
@MelissaLeeCNBC
@jlebenthal
@stephenLweiss
@jonnajarian
@sarat_sethi
! One feisty show today and packed with trade ideas! If you missed it, check it out here!
Missed today's
#HalftimeReport
?
Follow The Podcast
Russia tensions ease, but more bad news on inflation. Melissa Lee and the Investment Committee debate what investors do from here. Is it time to go ‘risk on’?
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Great debate and lots of conviction today on whether to be buying right now and be "all-in" or not. Plus, why most of us are sticking with the energy trade.
Missed today's
#HalftimeReport
?
Follow The Podcast
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate if it’s time to start buying now as one Committee member begins putting money to work in this market.
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Right now it's so important to have something in the portfolio that's working when most everything is not. Energy was "working" today, down -0.08% when SPX was -2.2%. Energy div. yield is over 4%, income is key. More on my outlook for oil, energy here⬇️
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As long as inflation is elevated (expected through YE '22), there is the risk that the Fed will err on the side of more tightening. This means the Fed will be a persistent headwind to equity valuations and cap rallies, at best. At worst, it risks repeating the history of 1970s.
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Despite the broad weakness this week, we've seen pockets of green in select software stocks. I like the setup into their earnings season - valuations corrected but strong growth should be re-affirmed during the earnings calls for cloud and AI-focused, non-pandemic tech.
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Strong payrolls + more cautious Fed are not enough to turn the tide of negativity right now. For markets, we need to rule out worst case scenarios before calling an all-clear. Sadly, we cannot rule out further escalation in Ukraine and a further spike in commodity prices yet.
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Happy New Year!! Lots to look forward to this week - jobs report, Fed minutes, OPEC + and
#CES2022
which should put the spotlight back on
#tech
and
#innovation
, and all things robotics, artificial intelligence, metaverse, crypto & more.
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Recent developments in the banking sector are likely deflationary - banks likely to tighten lending standards and rein in lending. In this week's commentary we wrote about this and other reasons why the Fed now has the cause for pause.
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Hot inflation>more rate hikes>slower growth in cyclical parts of the economy. Thank you
@bsurveillance
for the discussion on why it might be time to take profits in cyclicals. But still like energy & high quality dividend-payers, to pair with tech.
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Big sigh of relief from stocks after the Fed, rally led by Tech/Nasdaq because (as expected) all the Fed did was mark its own expectations to market. The two are now in sync for '22 and '23.
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#CyberSecurity
stocks are down -12% from recent highs, valuations on many reset significantly lower. This is a buying oppty for reasonably valued security names. Cybersecurity is a top concern for everyone right now and security spend is set to outpace broader IT spend into ’24.
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Taiwan Semi earnings guidance suggests strong semiconductor demand should continue in Q4 & beyond. This chart of positive semiconductor revenue trends should keep getting better.
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As markets worry about an earnings slowdown, there are also signs that U.S. oil product demand is slowing. Demand for gasoline and distillates (used for trucking/rail) is now down year-over-year. Jet fuel supplied though is +15.7% y-o-y as air travel surges.
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As Q3 ends, we'll be entering seasonally strong Q4. SPX was positive 78% of the time in Q4 since 1970, and in the last 20 yrs, average Q4 return was 4.11% or 7.72% excluding negative years. Seasonality and strong growth fundamentals should be on the markets' side in Q4.
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Will the market look through the latest Omicron variant? Maybe, but lots to be learned in the next few weeks. For now, my top ideas are *biotech* and *oil*. Enjoyed the chat with
@SquawkCNBC
and
@LizYoungStrat
this morning.
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Sharp pullback across the commodity complex today. This reversal on a positive headline of Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate is not surprising given that a large share of worst case scenario forecasts has been priced in for many commodities.
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Another week of volatility, setbacks and comebacks. But SPX is on track to finish this week +2% higher. Note the big divergence - unprofitable tech +7% for the week while communication services sector is near 0%.
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Assuming this holds into the close, Energy and Software/Tech saved this week. We got a more hawkish Fed, but offsetting that, software's strong growth fundamentals came through in earnings as expected.
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Enjoyed the conversation this morning with
@andrewrsorkin
@SquawkCNBC
on why the Nasdaq should still be the catch-up trade near-term (still down ~6.5% YTD). But investors should use lower volatility now and layer in hedges for more periodic growth scares.
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Sign of easing inflation pressures or demand destruction due to a 40%+ year-over-year surge in used car prices?
Used car and truck prices fell 3.8% in March, largest monthly decline since 1969
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The market is in relief-rally mode. 12 months + risk/reward improved based on reduced sentiment and positioning. But the outlook is still highly uncertain. I’m watching 3 things for signs of a market bottom.
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Thrilled to share that I joined
@icapitalnetwork
as the firm's Chief Investment Strategist. Look forward to providing insights on global markets, and helping investors find opportunities in private equity, hedge funds, real estate and other alternatives.
Anastasia Amoroso joins iCapital today as Chief Investment Strategist, bringing a wealth of knowledge about the global investing marketplace. Welcome to the team!
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What to buy in this treacherous market? Focus on income. Get paid a yield while you wait out the volatility. Fixed income alternatives to equities are (finally) emerging. Latest asset class yields here 👇
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Great to have conferences back in person again! Thanks
@NAPFA
for having me in Boston today to speak about 3 disruptive growth trends taking off in private markets now.
#fintech
#crypto
#biotech
#sustainability
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There are 3 risks weighing on insurance stocks - CRE exposure, credit deterioration potential and a chance of an above-normal hurricane season.
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Great to join
@HalftimeReport
yesterday. What I like about one segment of the Financials - if capital markets activity picks up in H2 '23, big banks and alternative asset managers should benefit.
Time for our Mid-year check-in for the 2023 Stock Summit. The Investment Committee discuss the stocks they picked at the beginning of the year. $MS $CMCSA $HLN $XLF $MRNA $GXO $XLV $PLD $TXN $MSFT $AVGO
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1/2 Are you a buyer of $BTC here? I am a buyer but on the dip. After a +60% rally in just a month, there are a few signs of near-term overbought conditions, including that 99.7% of all $BTC is now in profit, according to
@Glassnode
values >95% suggest market tops.
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The gap between OPEC+ target output vs actual is projected to grow as the year goes on and countries aren't able to deliver production. Barring a sudden addition of Iranian barrels, this should keep supply/demand balanced and oil prices elevated.
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EU banks are in the spotlight and selling off today, but their capital and liquidity positions are above those of U.S. G-SIBs.
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Good morning! This week watching
#Bitcoin
over $50k, manufacturing indicators, and Fed Chair Powell at now-virtual Jackson Hole meeting.
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What in the world is
#metaverse
and why do we care? In this week’s post we look at why co's like
@Roblox
, Epic Games, Ethereum-based
@Decentraland
& more are racing to build their own versions. How to invest in this “next big thing” in tech? See here ⬇️:
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