Katie Stockton, CMT
@StocktonKatie
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Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies; Chartered Market Technician; ETF portfolio manager; @CNBC Contributor
Greenwich, CT
Joined April 2012
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Fear & Greed Index grabbed our attention with its >75% reading, suggesting sentiment is too bullish...past peaks with VIX < 20 have given way to $SPX corrections
#fairleadstrategies
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Sharing $NVDA support levels after today's humbling and disconcerting 10.0% decline...the 50-day MA was penetrated, putting next support at February’s gap and a Fibonacci retracement level in the $742-$752 area...if this support zone is taken out, a secondary Fibonacci level near
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I'm part of the "some"...
U.S. stocks flash rare bull-market signal for first time in nearly 3 years, but some have their doubts
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The $NDX is the first of the major indices to see a loss of momentum strong enough to generate a weekly MACD "sell" signal - past signals are denoted by arrows and support is highlighted on the chart
#fairleadstrategies
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It's rare that we see such clean cup-and-handle formations as in $MSFT and subsequently $SPX; they tend to have bullish long-term implications
#fairleadstrategies
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Happy Holidays from Fairlead Strategies! Watch us ring the
@NYSE
closing bell today to celebrate our ETF with family, friends, and our fantastic partners at Cary Street
#fairleadstrategies
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The massive move in $NVDA is generating its first counter-trend signal per Tom DeMark's TD Combo model on the weekly bar chart - it suggests the rally is overdone, but a measured move projects to ~$409 so we'd hold onto positions as long as today's low (i.e., the gap on the daily
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First segment as a proud CNBC Contributor!
#fairleadstrategies
"We're looking for a retest of the 200 day moving average, but really adhering to that short term momentum indicator to help us know if we need to start managing risk again," says
@StocktonKatie
. "I doubt we're going to get that volatility spike before year end."
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As a mom I often find myself working in my car between pickups and drop-offs but today we had a laugh because Fairlead’s “mobile office” had me watching cartoons instead of
@SquawkCNBC
from the kiddie room at the dentist
#fairleadstrategies
#workingmom
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Followers of the DeMARK Indicators
@DeMARKAnalytics
, take note. $NDX has ‘13s’ across time frames, which would be cautionary if they’re confirmed. Track our views:
#fairleadstrategies
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Proud moment for this technical analyst to be interviewed for the latest issue of
@STOCKSandCOMM
as the magazine celebrates its 40th (!) year in print - I remember looking up TASC articles when I started studying TA in the mid 90s
#fairleadstrategies
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Gold is testing final resistance at $2063/oz. today, defining the upper bound of a wide long-term range, a breakout from which would be a bullish multi-year development, noting long-term momentum is now positive behind gold per the monthly MACD
#fairleadstrategies
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Great vantage point from a holiday party last night..made even more special by the fact that I will have the honor of ringing the
@NYSE
closing bell Dec 22!
#fairleadstrategies
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Today has possibility to capture some short-term "macro" inflections, noting signs of downside exhaustion in $usd, for one, per the DeMARK Indicators (note the "13s" on the chart often mark inflections)
#fairleadstrategies
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Here's a visual on the $SPX levels we discussed on
@SquawkCNBC
this morning...a rebound appears likely this week from oversold extremes, and if 4180 is reclaimed, that would leave the breakdown unconfirmed in a bullish development...conversely, a decisive close below it would
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Joining the ranks of
@NYSE
bell ringers was such an honor and to have my team there clapping alongside our partners, friends, and family was simply amazing, smiles couldn't get any bigger
#fairleadstrategies
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$SPX has improved intermediate-term momentum, but the 2008 bear market lends skepticism as to its staying power
#fairleadstrategies
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Never been on the cover of Forbes (and high probability never will be) but this pose felt pretty natural for us 🤣
#fairleadstrategies
#forbesshook
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The DeMARK Indicators do not give one peace of mind coming into tomorrow's FOMC announcement, with counter-trend signals on 60-min charts & daily charts of $SPX
#fairleadstrategies
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Our morning note was titled "Yields Show Exhaustion" inspired by the DeMARK Indicators
@DeMarkAnalytics
on the chart of 10-year
#yields
which show a short-term counter-trend signal near resistance, supporting an immediate pullback after yesterday's upswing
#fairleadstrategies
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Was it really 27 years ago that I walked down these stairs for Ring Dance
@urichmond
🕷️?! Always love being back, this time for a guest lecture for Technical Analysis FIN465 class (yes, they have a TA class!)
#fairleadstrategies
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Translation: June was not likely the final low of this bear market cycle...
"I think that is a low, an intermediate low. But not a long-term low because we have improved intermediate term momentum but very much like past bear market cycles, that does tend to happen more than twice even during that bear market," says
@StocktonKatie
on the June 16 low.
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The rotation into small caps (i.e., expanding breadth) is generating a breakout in $IWM above its 200-day MA, giving it good room to resistance; note the DeMARK "13" from
@DeMarkAnalytics
supports near-term outperformance vs $SPX
#fairleadstrategies
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An idyllic setting for a deep dive into macro and markets with
@biancoresearch
@DavidKotokGIC
at
#campkotok
#fairleadstrategies
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All eyes are on $NVDA ahead of tomorrow's earnings report; today's MACD downturn shows a loss of short-term momentum...if a deeper pullback unfolds, we are watching the 50-day MA (in green) as initial support, and the breakout point as secondary support...as long as the 20-day MA
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Earning our company’s nautical theme on a gorgeous night for the first Tuesday series regatta of the season
#fairleadstrategies
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Counter-trend setups hold more risk, but natural gas is tempting, above its 10-week MA with a DeMARK "buy" signal (denoted by the "13" on the chart) holding implications for momentum to continue to improve near-term
#fairleadstrategies
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Join me in congratulating
#fairleadstrategies
analyst
@tamplin_will
for passing the final Level III exam from the
@CMTAssociation
in record time - excited to have 3 CMTs in our ranks!
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Megacaps have collectively shown downside leadership, today included, but the FAANG+M+T index has signs of downside exhaustion per DeMARK Indicators (also vs $SPX) supporting a rebound for a better selling opportunity $META $AAPL $AMZN $NVDA $GOOGL $MSFT $TSLA
#fairleadstrategies
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Copper is taking the lead of gold pushing out of a triangle, one of the highest-probability price patterns IMO
#fairleadstrategies
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What a way for this mom to roll into this special fin de semaine with my girls
#fairleadstrategies
#paris
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Celebrating Fairlead’s 6th (!) birthday…can’t think of a better excuse for the team to eat cake midday 🥳
#fairleadstrategies
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Love this new addition to my office backdrop from the
@NYSE
- thank you for being such a great supporter
#fairleadstrategies
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Proud to be the only woman in the running for "Technical Analyst of the Year" in the 2021 The Technical Analyst Awards - thanks
@TheTechAnalyst
for the recognition!
Also happy to announce
#fairleadstrategies
in its 3rd year is shortlisted as a Finalist for "Best Equity Research"
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Had no idea when I signed up for
@FutureProofAC
that my 1x1 mtgs would include this hearty rainbow trout! In good company
@TheBroadmoor
spreading the word about Fairlead’s research & ETF. You don’t have to be at this boondoggle for a free trial:
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A surge in NYSE new highs is not necessarily a good thing...3 out of the last 4 peaks in the 50-day MA gave way to corrective periods for $SPX
#fairleadstrategies
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Semis have lost momentum and relative strength, leading to the first overbought downturn (and DeMARK '9') for $SMH since Aug '23, supporting a 4+ week consolidation phase
#fairleadstrategies
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Breakouts have been concentrated in energy stocks lately with
#crudeoil
having cleared key resistance; the next hurdle we're watching for WTI is ~$94/bbl. based on the weekly cloud model
#fairleadstrategies
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Volatility should increase per the $VIX over the coming months, referencing long-term technical indicators; this hints at more frequent corrections within the $SPX bull cycle
#fairleadstrategies
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Proud day seeing
#fairleadstrategies
signage go up outside our new office space - come visit us in Greenwich!
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Not every day you see $NDX up more than 6%...for my reaction I'll be on CNBC tonight for a special "Taking Stock" at 7:05pm ET
#fairleadstrategies
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Happy to be back (and mask free!) at the iconic
@NYSE
for
@ETFEdgeCNBC
with
@BobPisani
#fairleadstrategies
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$NVDA closed at a new all-time high yesterday, testing final resistance ahead of this afternoon's earnings report; if it can hold above ~$503 resistance for a few days, that'd be bullish, whereas if it falls back into its ~100-point range, we'd turn attention to initial support
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In town for a lifetime achievement award from
@CMTAssociation
on their 50th anniversary, Tom DeMARK
@DeMarkAnalytics
threw the ceremonial first pitch at the
@Mets
game, with a shout out to his famous 9s & 13s for friends and followers
#fairleadstrategies
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$AAPL has lifted out of its year-long trading range in dramatic fashion; as always, we would await confirmation of the breakout (2x weekly closes >$198) before acting on it to manage risk of a whipsaw; a measured move would target ~$240
#fairleadstrategies
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Watching $VIX as a risk metric given a divergence on its chart - would see two closes > 20-day MA as a trigger to hedge short-term $SPX exposure
#fairleadstrategies
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Please access our latest free
#fairleadstrategies
Idea Generator on Substack featuring $UNG and a short-term, counter-trend “buy” signal from the DeMARK Indicators
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Earnings so far have been well-received, partly a function of oversold conditions
Heavyweights $GOOGL and $MSFT report tonight and will further set the tone short-term
If their summer lows are reclaimed, resistance levels pictured would be targeted
#fairleadstrategies
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It’s all about the people! Success in finally getting the summer BBQ on the calendar. Grateful for this
#fairleadstrategies
crew for all the hard work and good company
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Tough $SPX close for the week down 2.8%...what made today worse than average was the broad participation in the decline, not just NYSE down-to-up volume (9-to-1), but also commodities and the usual "safe havens" down in sync
#fairleadstrategies
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Great to see
@michaelsantoli
and other market pros
@DeliveringAlpha
while hearing from renowned investors
#fairleadstrategies
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Early start today
@CNBCWEX
with Frank who’s got me smiling even at 5:30am as the 10-year crosses 5.0%; key message is to watch key support levels (many are close to in-line) to determine if the correction is the start of something worse
#fairleadstrategies
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Talking $SPX $NDX $VIX $AAPL
#bitcoin
technicals
@SquawkCNBC
this morning at 8:50am ET
#fairleadstrategies
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Happy to bring my remote office to Ojai with
@beatrailblazer
learning about the industry potential of
#cannabis
- stay tuned for regular technical coverage of public cannabis cos
#fairleadstrategies
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$AAPL and $TSLA should see more of a bounce, but the weekly MACDs and long-term support levels make a compelling case to sell strength
#fairleadstrategies
(Charts excerpted from today's research - request a sample report here: )
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Happy New Year! Sharing my thoughts as we kick off 2023 tomorrow at 8am ET on
@SquawkCNBC
#fairleadstrategies
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Not too encouraged by oversold breadth readings noting significant deterioration in the cumulative NYSE A-D line...an analog to past bear market cycles (e.g., 2015-2016) suggests it could get back its 200-week MA
#fairleadstrategies
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$TSLA has strong support near $156 based on the cloud model, both on the daily (short-term) and monthly (long-term) charts
#fairleadstrategies
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Happy to be among these esteemed ‘names’ in launching/having launched ETFs; for more info please visit
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Average performance for the $SPX ( in red) and small-cap Russell 2000 (in green), normalized since 1993, shows the propensity for small caps to outperform early in the New Year, often because they are subject to undue tax-loss selling into year-end
#fairleadstrategies
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Thank you to
@DavidKotokGIC
for having faith in me and new and old friends at
#campkotok
- especially grateful for this year’s introduction to
@CombatWoundedVC
and all that they do for our veterans
#fairleadstrategies
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Grateful to
@FutureProofAC
for bringing me to the West Coast where it’s easy to forget the market is open
#fairleadstrategies
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Feeling a bit like Debbie Downer here - hope to bring
@JoeSquawk
some better news next time...
"The next support is roughly $19,500 for
#Bitcoin
and we do think it's doable as part of this cycle. It would be a natural place for a bottom to be discovered," says
@StocktonKatie
on
#crypto
.
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The day after the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA, the $SPX registered the first counter-trend "buy" signal from Tom DeMark's TD Sequential model during its corrective phase - a reason to be skeptical of the timeliness of the so-called "death cross"
#fairleadstrategies
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Always an enjoyable meetup with London-based Jason Perl, author (and master) of DeMARK Indicators, one of the best books about one of my favorite tools
#fairleadstrategies
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$TSLA earnings are being well received - the chart makes a good case study in "rising wedges" which are more often continuation patterns (i.e., $TSLA should break down, continuing its downtrend) vs. reversal patterns - watch the pattern boundaries ~779/661
#fairleadstrategies
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A non-reaction to an oversold condition tends to be a message from the market
#fairleadstrategies
"There is the potential that these moves are overdone, but frankly, none of the oversold ratings that we've gotten in equities have elicited any kind of response and we can say the same on the flip side for treasury yields and the dollar," says
@StocktonKatie
.
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For followers of the DeMARK Indicators, this signal on the daily WTI
#crudeoil
chart is notable - sell the news?
#fairleadstrategies
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Joining
@SquawkCNBC
this morning around 8am ET to address market volatility
#fairleadstrategies
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Fun ringing the
@Nasdaq
bell with
@Vetta_Fi
this morning…nice to have a big up-day to get excited for
@exchangeETF
in Miami
#fairleadstrategies
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$AAPL is at a key proving ground near $170 - short-term oversold conditions are enhanced by a counter-trend signal from
@DeMarkAnalytics
, supporting stabilization, but long-term indicators suggest AAPL's wide range is distributive (i.e., a double-top)
@fairleadstrategies
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All eyes on $AAPL earnings this week - the overbought downturn presents a challenge - key chart levels include the 200- and 50-day MAs (~159/143) and cloud resistance
#fairleadstrategies
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Went with $NVDA for my final trade to leverage a short-term oversold bounce off its 50-day MA, but would be non-committal with possible seasonal weakness looming
#fairleadstrategies
CNBCFastMoney: Final Trade time! Here's how
@timseymour
,
@StocktonKatie
,
@RiskReversal
and
@grassosteve
are positioning. $ET $NVDA $IGV $IBIT
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Apparently I'm "the man"!...
The Famous Analyst Who Holds the First Target on Bitcoin Announces His Next Bullish Price Target!
#fairleadstrategies
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Weakness in crypto has been localized, not impacting previously correlated $NDX, which just cleared its 50-day MA, but it reminds us to beware any loss of momentum
#fairleadstrategies
"I am surprised that more damage wasn't done to the charts of
#Bitcoin
and
#Ethereum
last week," says
@StocktonKatie
. "The indicators are showing side of downward exhaustion for bitcoin that we haven't seen in some time. That would support a rebound of 9 weeks or so for
#crypto
."
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The $VIX range has redefined itself with its upper boundary near 29; a decisive breakout (2x weeks above) would dictate $SPX caution from a sentiment perspective
#fairleadstrategies
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We are watching $VIX closely as a read on sentiment; a decisive break below 18.45 would be an $SPX positive...contact us thru our website for the report
#fairleadstrategies
"We don't have the evidence yet that we're out of the bear market cycle," says
@StocktonKatie
. "The good news is that we're closer to that...but we're not out of the woods yet."
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It's good to see ~9-to-1 positive
#breadth
readings today, looking at both
#NYSE
advancers-to-decliners and up-volume to-down-volume, which should yield a bigger oversold upturn in the cumulative A-D line pictured
#fairleadstrategies
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Consider trialing our research for ways to navigate this still-challenging market (link in comments)…
A 'volatility event' will plunge the stock market to new lows in the next 6 months, Fairlead's Katie Stockton says via
@mktsinsider
#fairleadstrategies
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Positive L-T momentum has grown behind $SPX as it nears all-time highs; the breakout > 4600 was a big deal in our work, and the measured move from a subsequent breakout > 4819 would be impressive...sign up for a free trial of our research to join our quarterly outlook call next
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#Bitcoin
is below its 200-day MA decisively, now down about 20% from July's high; the setback would go from short-term to intermediate-term in our work if support near $25.2K is taken out w/secondary support at the cloud, currently near $20.6K
#fairleadstrategies
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A shift in sentiment appears underway with the Fitch downgrade today, bringing the Fear & Greed Index decisively below 75% after having reached "overly bullish" extremes
#fairleadstrategies
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Good timing for a visit from
@AlmanacTrader
at the start of the the seasonal “Best Six Months” strategy highlighted in the indispensable Stock Traders Almanac
#fairleadstrategies
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Hola from Mexico City! Excited for a full day of local ETF knowledge with a focus on diversity thanks to
@deborahfuhr
and in conjunction with
@CFAMEXICO
and
@mujeresfinanzas
#fairleadstrategies
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Snippit from my research on
@mktsinsider
#fairleadstrategies
The stock market is poised for a 'significant relief rally' after the S&P 500 tests key 3,500 support level, Katie Stockton says via
@mktsinsider
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Happily back
@urichmond
presenting to the local
@CMTAssociation
chapter with fellow alum
@tamplin_will
… I will be broadcasting
@SquawkCNBC
here tomorrow ~7:30am ET
#fairleadstrategies
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I’ll be appearing today
@SquawkCNBC
around 8:50am ET to discuss the turbulent tape for $SPX
#yields
and more
#fairleadstrategies
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Love the Fearless Girl sculpture and what it represents - thanks to friends
@StateStreetGA
for making an impression
@FutureProofAC
and promoting
#genderdiversity
on Wall Street and beyond
#fairleadstrategies
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Evaluating the response in $SPX $VIX $KRE
#yields
to the bank failures tomorrow 3/15 on
@SquawkCNBC
at 8am ET
#fairleadstrategies
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Appreciative of Southern hospitality as I dusted off my high heels for one of my first big investor presentations in ages
@MaryWash
#fairleadstrategies
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April tends to be a good month for the $SPX up +2.1% on average since 1995 (closer to +1.5% in years with super strong Q1s)...glad to have one month before 'Sell in May and Go Away' comes to the forefront seasonally
#fairleadstrategies
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This year has the potential to see international equity markets $EFA $EEM outperform the U.S. $SPY (again, for developed global); the ratios show a compelling loss of long-term downside momentum, worth revisiting once support is discovered by $KWEB and others
#fairleadstrategies
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Great bumping into friends and fellow ladies in ETFs at the
@WomeninETFs
10th anniversary celebration - here’s to diversity and diversification!
#10yearsofWE
#fairleadstrategies
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Good morning all -I’ll be joining
@SquawkCNBC
around 8am ET to address recent volatility $SPX $VIX and one sector that is weathering it
#fairleadstrategies
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Joined
@CNBCFastMoney
for the hour discussing not just $NVDA (which stole the show) but also how short-term rotations favor healthcare $XLV
#fairleadstrategies
It's time for a checkup on healthcare!
@StocktonKatie
examines why the sector could stay in good health amid a correction.
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