The Coastal Journal
@1CoastalJournal
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TCJ: Your 🧭 in the turbulent seas of economic news. Dive into the latest Macro-Econ insights, based on Austrian economic wisdom, spanning coast to coast.
California, USA
Joined June 2023
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✈️Top Gun Economics: Yield Curve - "Because I Was Inverted"
- 🔎 Un-inversion impact on bonds, gold, stocks
- 📉 What does "need for un-inverted" mean?
- ⚠️ No top-secret clearance required!
📰()
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🚨BREAKING: FED POWELL TALK
Q: ELIMINATING the Federal Reserve is best for promoting economic stability?
POWELL: YES.
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🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨:
BANKS 📉
The financial world is on edge as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's alarming statement
“I EXPECT THERE TO BE BANK FAILURES”
* (when BTFP ends on Monday)
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1K
🚨BREAKING: US BANK CRISIS 📉
US banks are feeling the stress as investors head to the exit.
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363
1K
1987 Stocks started to 📉 in Hong Kong. The crash continued in Asia & as other markets began to feel the “aftershocks” of the 📉 due Iran tensions and higher interest rates.The stock carnage spread to Europe & 🇺🇸 markets opened stocks were📉
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🚨BREAKING: BANKS 📉
*
@moodysratings
Downgrades regionals
- Moody's Downgrade Threatens 130 Regional Banks
- $10 Billion to $100 Billion market cap banks at Risk Due to High Commercial Real Estate Exposure
- **Analyst Ana Arsov Warns of Severe Financial Instability**
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🚨BANKING CRISIS 🚨
Not only are regional banks continue their orderly selling BIG Banks are selling off drastically after a TERRIBLE Earnings report.
#banks
$JPM -5.5%
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🚨BANK SELL OFF: 📉
As banks report earnings many are warning about credit loss a clear sign the economy is not well as $JPM stated today
“We set aside $3.1 billion in provisions for credit losses, 62% higher📈 than the first quarter.”
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🚨 Breaking News: Federal Reserve's Discount-Window loans surged to $8.56 billion, up from $5.05 billion, raising concerns about banking stability. Increased borrowing suggests deeper sector challenges.
#bank
crisis is just getting started
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🚨Banks: 🚨📉
First Common Wealth Bank $FCF
-15% after hours
No news at the moment
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🚨BREAKING:
@FDICgov
SAYS BANKS HAVE WEAKNESS
They identify 4 banks
$BAC
$C
$GS
$JPM
⚠️BANKS 📉
As more and more regional banks use the discount window the lower these bank stocks go
Usage of the discount window means that either banks don’t want to lend to other banks
Due to either
1. Insolvency
2. Bad collateral
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🚨BREAKING:
MORE REGIONAL BANKS 📉
$SSBI -6.5% today
No news as to why.
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🚨BREAKING NEWS: $NVDA Under Investigation by U.S. Department of Justice
**Stock Enters Bear Market:**
Nvidia down 📉 -25%.
**AI Microchip Practices:** DOJ investigating Nvidia's sale practices
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**🚨 Regional Banking Crisis Alert! 🚨**
**Huntington Bank Spooks Investors, Shares Plunge 6%**
- **New Guidance:** Net interest income to fall 1% to 4% this year
- **Previous Range:** -2% to +2%
- **Impact:** Largest drop since March 2023
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🚨BANKS: IN FREE FALL 📉
•Last week
@ecb
cut interest rates even though inflation is not 2% with more & more data that comes out, seems like they cut rates because the Europe banking system is on the verge of 📉
The following Europe major banks leading with 📉 $DB $HSBC $BCS
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Full article: Financial Banks 🚨
4 Major U.S. Banks Face Scrutiny
In an alarming development, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve Board have flagged serious "shortcomings" in the "living wills" of four of the eight largest U.S. banks,
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🚨BREAKING: $NVDA DOJ investigation
•The Justice Department will look at whether Nvidia has violated antitrust laws
•The DOJ was also responsible investigated and prosecuted Enron. leading to convictions of key figures like CEO Jeffrey Skilling & founder Kenneth Lay.
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🚨BREAKING: Banking Stress Escalates
- FED discount-window loans hit $6.46B for the week ended June 12th, up from $6.19B.
- Significant increase signals rising stress in the banking sector.
- Experts warn of increased reliance on emergency funding especially in regional banks
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🚨BANK EARNINGS 📉
Bank of America stock is down 5% today after reporting terrible earnings they’re profits -18%
All banks continue their selling as earnings. Come in terrible.
$bac
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Someone should find out more about how The CEO of Coreweave Michael Intrator who use to work at ENRON & help manipulate the fraud there is not doing almost the same identical thing with $NVDA as Coreweave which is backed by Nvidia is their
#1
customer
The fraud is incredible.
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🚨BREAKING:
The world’s largest AI chip maker is delaying its new Arizona plant as $TSM
States weak demand for AI chips
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🚨BANKS: UNDER PRESSURE 📉
Investors are worried that higher for longer rates & only a few more more months till the BTFP loans have to be paid back will cause issues for the banks as repo accounting tricks will end.
$cma $banc
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**🚨BANK CRASH ALERT 🚨**
- **New York Community Bancorp (NYCB.N) reported a second-quarter loss worse than expected**
- **Bigger provisions due to pressures in its multi-family loan book**
- **Shares fell 9% pre-market**
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🚨BREAKING: BANK DOWNGRADES🚨
**
@SPGlobalRatings
Downgrades 5 Major Regional Banks Due to High Exposures to CRE loans
-
@SPGlobalRatings
lowers outlook on First Commonwealth, M&T Bank, Synovus, Trustmark, & Valley National Bancorp.
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- REAL ESTATE TAKES A HIT: 📉 Pending Home Sales Drop by -4.9%
- NEW LISTINGS SURGE: Largest Increase in 3 Years with a 13% Rise
- SALES DECLINE: Down by -8%, Defying Expectations of 1.5% Growth
-PRICES 📉: Down about -9% from high
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🚨BREAKING: CoreWeave a $NVDA backed company or SPE has just secured $7.5 Billion Debt Financing Facility led by Blackstone & Magnetar
CoreWeave is $NVDA TOP CLIENT of Nvidia's chips
On top of that the company is using Nvidia GPUs as collateral for the fresh debt financing.
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The
#BTFP
is currently being drained as banks have to pay back their loans.
This is now draining liquidity out of the markets.
Here is what it means going forward and why the bank stocks have not fully crashed yet:
The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) allows banks to borrow
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Why is the
@BLS_gov
removing the price of coffee from the inflation report?
Coffee is an important part of America prices, almost as important as gas prices (we already exclude gas) and we are removing it from the CPI INFLATION REPORT!
H/t
@DonMiami3
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⚠️BANKS CONTINUE 📉
•As banks continue to use the discount window at the Fed no one knows which bank will fail next causing concerns in the banking sector
•this is after Troubled Philadelphia-based bank implodes in first failure of the year over the weekend
$sofi $db $banc
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🚨 BREAKING NEWS: Fed's BTFP Hits Record High of $148 Billion! 🚨
- Unprecedented support for insolvent banks
- QE on steroids: Banks trade old bonds that were a loss for gains getting 100 cents on the dollar
- Program set to end in March
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🚨BREAKING : CONSUMER Crisis as Credit Card Delinquency 📈
**Near Historic Peaks:** U.S. rates hit 94.8% of their peaks of 2008.
- Nationwide Impact: All regions saw at least a 32.2% increase in delinquent debt.
- Richest Hit Hard: Delinquency in wealthy ZIP codes rose 54%.
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**🌍 Global Banking Alert: Moody's Downgrades European Banks 🌍**
- Moody's downgrades outlook for key European Banks $db $ubs $hsbc $bcs
- Weak economies erode profits, rising losses, and funding costs threaten collapse 📉
- Echoes of 2008 haunt, warning of impending doom
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🚨BANKS: THE Sell off continues
As Fed Chair Powell states Higher For longer on interest rates to Congress
YTD 📉:
$NYCB -69%
$SOFI -37%
$PGC -30%
$INDB -27%
$BANC -8% (3 largest bank in CA)
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⚠️BANKS 📉
As more and more regional banks use the discount window the lower these bank stocks go
Usage of the discount window means that either banks don’t want to lend to other banks
Due to either
1. Insolvency
2. Bad collateral
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⚠️JUST IN: REGIONAL BANKS📉
• PIMCO Warns of Looming Wave of US Regional Bank Failures Due to Troubled Commercial Real Estate Loans
•PIMCO has been snapping up CRE loans offloaded by some large US banks for the past 18 months.
“The real wave of distress is just starting”
🚨BREAKING: BANKS 📉
*
@moodysratings
Downgrades regionals
- Moody's Downgrade Threatens 130 Regional Banks
- $10 Billion to $100 Billion market cap banks at Risk Due to High Commercial Real Estate Exposure
- **Analyst Ana Arsov Warns of Severe Financial Instability**
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🚨BREAKING: BANKS🚨
$WFC which currently has massive losses (as stated on the chart below) just had one of the top executives commit suicide.
Greg Beckett responsibility at Wells Fargo was internal controls, with the focus of safeguarding the bank from any RISKS that could
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🚨Banking Crisis: Bank Stocks 📉
**Led by Bank $OZK**
- **Bank OZK's Largest Loan:**
- $915M total, $135M for 'Echo Street West' in Atlanta possible default
- **Concerns:**
- major banks are too leveraged
- **Impact:**
- Major sell-off in bank stocks today
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Another main story today is the 📉 in Health Care Insurance down -34% (doesnt make sense) but thanks to a NEW method by
@BLS_gov
Summary: It's not your premium they measure but health insurer PROFITS, factoring in plan differences. Company profits dip, causing the -34%.
🤡🌎
‼️OCT CPI INFLATION
•📈All Index 3.2%
•📈Core 4%
•📈Total 18% (since 2021)
🔘At 4% a year rate the Dollar 📉 -50% in purchasing power every 18 years.
Currently on year 3 of 18 & ahead of schedule at -18% loss in purchasing power (reported).
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🚨**Breaking Fed News!**
**Fed Discount Window Update**
📈**Increase:** Up 27% to $6.79 billion this week!
- **Focus on Smaller Banks:** Continued emphasis on their impact and strategies to stay solvent
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⚠️: INFLATION IS SO BAD YOU NEED 2 JOBS TO GET BY
AMERICANS WITH 2 FULL TIME JOBS &
FULL TIME + PART TIME JOB HIT A RECORD HIGH
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INFLATION ALERT ⚠️
April CPI estimate rose from .37% YESTERDAY
to .4%
Inflation now running at an annualized rate of 4.8% 📈 further away from 2%
Today’s investing world has the shortest attention span in history & people fail to realize what lies ahead.
As the PCE inflation report that comes out on Friday MoM is 📈&coming in
.3% & .32%
which is now an annualized rate of
3.6%
a very far, far distance from 2% target
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⚠️POLITICIANS BEG THE FED TO CUT RATES
@ewarren
wrote an open letter to Chair Powell to ignore his mandate by congress of stable prices by cutting interest rates NOW for the election that’s just 120 days away.
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🚨BANKS SELL OFF ACCELERATING:
- $C Citi -6% ⚠️📉
- $C violated Federal Reserve rule
- These violations led to critical errors in its internal liquidity reporting.
- This oversight raises alarms about a potential bank crash, reminiscent of past financial disasters.
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🚨 Fed Governor Bowman: No Rate Cuts in 2024, Bank Stocks 📉
⚪️ **Key Points:**
- Fed Governor Bowman confirms her forecast no rate cuts in 2024
- 'Higher for longer' interest rates policy continues
- Bank stocks plunge today, with some down as much as 22% year to date.
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Classic Enron:
Yes, Enron used accounts receivable as part of their accounting tricks that contributed to the company's collapse. Enron engaged in a variety of complex and deceptive practices to hide debt and inflate earnings. One of the key methods involved manipulating
To beat the guidance, Nvidia's accounts receivable have increased by over 23%, reaching $12.3 billion and continuing to grow rapidly.
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🚨Breaking Bank Crash Alert $DB :
*Deutsche Bank Issues Warning*
- Massive hit expected from commercial real estate portfolio later this year
- Q2 credit loss provisions 📈 19% to ($516.7M)
- Q2 net loss of €143M
- First QT net loss since 2020
$DB -6%📉
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🚨
#Bank
🏃♂️ in progress keep eyes on the following banks that are showing signs of immediate stress
$SOFI $TFC $BANC $CFG $KEY $PNC $USB $KRE
⚠️BANKS: 📉
- Inflation reports came in 🔥
- Indicates higher interest rates for longer duration 📈
- Puts pressure on banks due to inverted yield curve ✈️🛩️
- Difficulty in making 💵 for banks
- Presence of toxic ☢️assets on banks' books, from bonds to loans
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🚨FED DISCOUNT WINDOW :
**Banking Sector Stress Increases**
**Fed Discount-Window Loans:**
$7.03B (up from $6.68B) 📈
- Fed's Stance: Higher rates for longer (Fed Gov. Bowman)
- JPMorgan:Stress test losses may exceed Fed disclosures
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🚨 Bank Crisis Intensifies: Troubled Lenders Surge to 63 in Q1 2024 -
•
@FDICgov
confidential Problem Bank List 📈 21% as distressed institutions
• investors fears of further failures that could trigger economic shockwaves the back half of the year.
$BANC $CMA $VLY $NYCB
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⚠️Breaking News: Bank of California Stock Price Plummets by -7%
- No Immediate news for Sharp 📉
- Company Recently Missed EPS -22%
- Banking stress continues
- BANC is one of the largest banks in California
#BankOfCalifornia
#StockMarket
#FinanceNews
$BANC
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15 years ago Obama passed a massive (at the time) $700 billion dollar stimulus plan to stimulate the economy.
In 2024 we are running a $2 trillion deficit in a “non recession”
To put things into perspective with
#inflation
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🚨 **Bank Crisis Warning: Wells Fargo Under Investigation** 🚨
- **Investigation:* $WFC is being investigated over anti-money laundering
- **SEC Probe:** investigation into cash sweep options for investment clients.
- **Stock Impact:** 📉 -7% amid spreading banking fears.
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🚨**Regional Banking Crisis Worsens as Summit State Bank's Q2 Earnings Plummet**
📉 **Q2 2024 Net Income:**
$928,000 Drops -67% from Q2 2023 Net Income $2,985,000
📉**Earnings Decline:** 69%
📉**Stock Drop:** -15%
$SSBI
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🚨BREAKING: FED BUYS
#BONDS
🔘
#FederalReserve
bought $15.6 billion today
•The strategy of buying $0 of long-term bonds, allowing natural interest rate 📈
- buying short-term bills to maintain lower rates
- Stagflation continues as the Fed funds the deficits
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BANK FAILURE OF 2024 HAS BEGUN
Regulators Set to Seize Troubled Philadelphia Bank Republic First
The bank had some of the same problems as the ones that failed in 2023
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Things you only see in booming economies and soft landings
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🚨BREAKING
**SOFR Surge - July 2, 2024**
- **Current Rate**: SOFR jumped to 5.4%, highest EVER
•A rise in SOFR typically signals 📉 liquidity in the market
• When SOFR 📈, it can indicate:
- Strain on bank balance sheets, often due to factors like heavy Treasury debt
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#banks
continue their sell off on Tuesday as everyone awaits Fed Chair Powell tomorrow that there is no rate cuts at the March meeting.
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The entire banking sector is toxic sludge
$ubs $kre $nycb $xlf
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🚨Bank down alert
$SCHW
Announces you can’t transfer money into different accounts.
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As the financial markets week kicks off,
regional
#banks
continue their
#bloodbath
as The Feds Powell will announce Higher for longer at the
#FOMC
meeting on Wednesday.
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🚨BANKS ARE SELLING OFF! 📉
•As the Federal Reserve continue to keep rates higher for longer that economist
@GregCrennan
has been forecasting regional banks are selling off hard.
•Major regional banks that are in a short term trouble is $BANC $VLY $KEY
$HSBC -6%
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🚨 Mega Crash Alert: Blackstone Mortgage Trust on the Brink 📉💥
🏢 Loans backed by commercial real estate in jeopardy ⚠️
💰 Liquidity crisis looms; default risk rising 📈
💼 Muddy Waters predicts borrowers unable to refinance even if Fed cut rates to 4%
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🚨 **California Bank in Trouble: Stock Down 9% Premarket** 🚨
- **Banc of California ( $BANC):**
📉Q2 earnings of $0.10/share
- **Missed Estimates: $0.19/share
- **Year Ago:** Earnings were $0.32/share
- **Earnings Crash 📉:** -47.37%
- **Consistent Misses:** Failed to meet EPS
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🚨 Breaking: Federal 🖨️💵
💵 The Fed is injecting liquidity into the market through various facilities , raising concerns
📈 BTFP reaches a new record high, signaling heightened worries for banks
🔄 Repo 🖨️💵 on the rise, indicating stress in the financial plumbing.
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🚨FED 🖨️💵 ALERT🚨
Federal Reserve 🖨️💵 $2B Discount-Window Loans Amidst Financial Strain
**Bullet Points:**
- $2.2B in loans provided for the week ending February 28th
- Banking stress apparent as BTFP ENDS IN 10 days
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#BTFP
is this bubbles version of Repo 105
Repo 105 was an accounting tactic by Lehman Brothers, moving assets off the balance sheet to boost financial health. It was criticized for being misleading after the fact , & played a role in the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
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🚨 Regional Banking Crisis Hits Hard: $PPBI Financials 📉 -4% today
**Revenue:** -15% YoY
**Net Income:** -27% YoY
**Net Profit Margins:** Down 15% YoY
**Net Change in Cash:** Down 432% YoY
⚠️Why This is Terrible:
These figures highlight a severe 📉 in the bank's
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🚨BREAKING:🏡 PRICES 📉 -17%
2023- $394,300 median home price
2022- $479,000
•Home prices have nosedived by a staggering 17% from their 2022 peak. In September, the median home price was $394,300, & with interest rates 🚀 to 8%, brace for even further price📉 as demand
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🚨BREAKING: 🏡🫧
Latest data from
@Redfin
•Housing Supply is 📈
-Total Supply up 35%
•Housing Prices 📉 from their 22 Peak
- $480k ➡️ $387k
•Housing Demand 📉
-BIGGEST DECLINES since Feb
Median ask is $420k median sold $387k
That is the spread
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‼️FED 🖨️💵 ALERT
🔘BANK TERM FUNDING HITS A NEW RECORD HIGH $114.09 BILLION!
•The increase in BTFP started at the end of October providing liquidity for the
#StockMarket
•This also signals stress in the banking sector.
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🚨BREAKING: FED DISCOUNT WINDOW 📈
FED DISCOUNT-WINDOW LOANS $7.02B IN THE WEEK
*The latest data suggest that mostly regional banks are using the discount window as they are the ones with the worst balance sheets.
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🚨BREAKING: FED
#BTFP
🚀
🔘The Bank program at the Fed just hit another record high of $141 Billion!
This is the first time BTFP soars and the $SPY didn’t follow.
The banking stress seems to be getting worst as the program is suppose to end in the next 40 days or so.
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**BREAKING: US 🏡 Crash Alert 🚨**
- **US existing home sales 📉 by 5.4% month-over-month in June**
- **This is the largest 📉 since November 2022**
- **📈 mortgage rates & affordability challenges are hitting the housing market hard**
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🚨Banking Crisis:
TD Bank Downgrade
- ** $Td **: S&P Global revises rating outlook to "negative" from "stable."
- **2 downgrade**: Other agencies also concerned.
- **Key issues**: Weak risk management
- **Anti-money laundering practices in the U.S.
🚨Banking Crisis: Bank Stocks 📉
**Led by Bank $OZK**
- **Bank OZK's Largest Loan:**
- $915M total, $135M for 'Echo Street West' in Atlanta possible default
- **Concerns:**
- major banks are too leveraged
- **Impact:**
- Major sell-off in bank stocks today
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M2 money supply stopped declining on October 30, 2023 (along with asset price declines).
Since then Money supply has 📈 $700 billion almost $1 trillion in 6 months.
This has caused inflation to stay “sticky” & caused a massive speculative orgy in financial markets.
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Full Clip: "I want to make it really clear, OK? We're not going to buy back a lot of stock at these prices,"
"Buying back stock of a financial company greatly in excess of 2x tangible book is a mistake. We aren't going to do it."
$jpm 📉
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Accounts receivable represent the money owed to Nvidia by its customers for products or services that have been delivered but NOT yet paid for. An increase in accounts receivable indicates that while Nvidia has made sales, it has not yet collected the cash from these sales. Rapid
To beat the guidance, Nvidia's accounts receivable have increased by over 23%, reaching $12.3 billion and continuing to grow rapidly.
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🚨Breaking Bank News:
*Deutsche Bank Issues Warning*
- Massive hit expected from commercial real estate portfolio later this year
- Q2 credit loss provisions 📈 19% to ($516.7M), driven by commercial real estate
- Q2 net loss of €143M
- First QT net loss since 2020
$DB -6%
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🚨MORE THAN 800 STOCKS ARE DOWN MORE THAN 5% TODAY
🚨BANKS ARE SELLING OFF! 📉
•As the Federal Reserve continue to keep rates higher for longer that economist
@GregCrennan
has been forecasting regional banks are selling off hard.
•Major regional banks that are in a short term trouble is $BANC $VLY $KEY
$HSBC -6%
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🚨BREAKING GDP REVISED 📉 🚨
U.S. economic activity was even weaker as previously estimated of 2020, 2021 and 2022 amid downgrades mostly to consumer spending, revised government data showed on Thursday.
All while
#Inflation
was REVISED HIGHER!
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The number of 401(k) plan participants taking hardship distributions increased by 13% between the second and third quarters
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Based on
@Redfin
data
MEDIAN SALE PRICE
(ALL HOME TYPES) IS 📉
-17%
from record high as of Feb 25,2024.
- REAL ESTATE TAKES A HIT: 📉 Pending Home Sales Drop by -4.9%
- NEW LISTINGS SURGE: Largest Increase in 3 Years with a 13% Rise
- SALES DECLINE: Down by -8%, Defying Expectations of 1.5% Growth
-PRICES 📉: Down about -9% from high
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Here is the actual full length quote by Fed Chair
#Powell
that
“I’m sure there will be bank failures, but this is not the big banks” -
#Jpow
Sound on 🔊🔊
H/t
@TheTranscript_
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨:
BANKS 📉
The financial world is on edge as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's alarming statement
“I EXPECT THERE TO BE BANK FAILURES”
* (when BTFP ends on Monday)
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CEO Jamie Dimon said they won't repurchase a lot of stock at current prices.
Repurchasing shares at a valuation of 2.3x tangible book value "is a mistake," Dimon said at the bank's Investor Day event.
$JPM 📉
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🚨BREAKING:
#Gold
📈
•NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE WORLDS GREATEST PRECIOUS METAL
•$2,153 an ounce
•Also, this means the US dollar 💵has hit a new low📉 in purchasing power.
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⚠️BANKS: 📉
- Inflation reports came in 🔥
- Indicates higher interest rates for longer duration 📈
- Puts pressure on banks due to inverted yield curve ✈️🛩️
- Difficulty in making 💵 for banks
- Presence of toxic ☢️assets on banks' books, from bonds to loans
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‼️FED 🖨️💵 ALERT
THE FED JUST BOUGHT $12 BILLION WORTH OF BONDS
THE MASSIVE DEVALUATION OF THE DOLLAR CONTINUES
⭕️FED BIDS FOR 6-MONTH BILLS TOTAL $5.1 BILLION 🖨️ DIGITALLY OF COURSE
Just keep printing Billions every week
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**Regional Banking Crisis ⚠️
•Bail outs: 1,804 institutions sought help from emergency lending
•Scale of Crisis: This represents 20% of eligible firms, indicating severe financial distress
•Details: 95% of borrowers had assets under $10 billion, per
@federalreserve
🚨 Breaking News: Federal Reserve's Discount-Window loans surged to $8.56 billion, up from $5.05 billion, raising concerns about banking stability. Increased borrowing suggests deeper sector challenges.
#bank
crisis is just getting started
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$SOFI -6% today, new low on the year
📉-33% YTD
This bank makes no money & has massive leverage in many areas of the market
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⚠️ Record Highs in 🇺🇸 having multiple jobs ONLY seen
#recession
- Current levels surpass past recession starts in 2000, 2008, & 2020
- Despite government claims of a soft landing, many Americans are forced to work multiple jobs
-Record high 🇺🇸 working 2 FULL time jobs
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