Kakashii
@kakashiii111
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Attorney | Due Diligence and Red Flags | Semiconductors and the Magnificent 7 | Geo-Politics and Technology focusing on China | Not Investment advice
Far Far Away
Joined August 2020
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"You don't have to tell me how good a stock is," my clients will often tell me."There are a dozen analysts out there who will do that. We are blitzkrieged with all the positive stuff. What we want from you is another view, an indication that perhaps the others are wrong."
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@stillgray
Its a lie. Its actually the special forces of Israel.
Can you stop spread mis information?!
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$AAPL iPhone Sales tumble -27.5% QoQ and -11.9% YoY for 1Q 2023
Apple saw its sales tumble 27.5 percent to 53.3 million units from the year-ago quarter. The iPhone 14 family made up 78 percent of that number.
This was the worst quarter since 2014 for smartphone shipments with
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Give me a good reason why Toyota valued $260B and Tesla $700B.
Don't tell me robots or cybertruck
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Wall Street: "Nvidia will remain a monopoly well into 2027, maintaining a gross margin of around 70%. Therefore, we've set a price target of up to $1400."
Nvidia:
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Nvidia H100 GPUs Saga: American Cannabis Company's Billion-Dollar Mirage
American Cannabis Company, an OTC ($AMMJ) company that provides advisory and consulting services to the cannabis industry, announced on September 5, 2023, its merger with a newly incorporated datacenter
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How did Nvidia manage to exceed expectations and raise guidance? Jensen Huang, having experienced the dot-com era, seems to have applied some familiar revenue inflation tactics.
For those who remember the dot-com bubble, "round-trip trading" or "ad swapping" was a common
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$AAPL “Every week of this shutdown and unrest we estimate is costing Apple roughly $1 billion a week in lost iPhone sales. Now roughly 5% of iPhone 14 sales are likely off the table due to these brutal shutdowns in China”
could be up to $8B in lost sales.
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UBS analysts admit that Nvidia has more supply than demand, and "normally, this is bad," but because it is Nvidia, it is considered good.
You can't make this stuff up.
$NVDA
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Enron vs. Nvidia: The increase in accounts receivable over one year looks very similar and raises some suspicions.
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$NVDA, a x2 short Nvidia ETF saw today the highest inflow ever since the ETF was IPO'ed with over 10x of the average volume 🧐🧐🧐
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$AAPL Do you wonder why Apple hold a rushed M3 Macs event just before the earnings report?
Let me give you the answer:
Apple Macs saw a double-digit sales decline (-24.2%) in Q3 compared to last year."
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Nvidia Q1 2025 - Singapore as a billing location
Singapore, a tiny nation with a population of 5.6 million and roughly the size of New York City, has somehow become the GPU capital of the world since the AI craze hit. in Q1, Nvidia's sales to Singapore have skyrocketed to over
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20% of $AAPL net income comes from China.
Chinese Government Bans Officials from using iPhone.
roughly over 400m in the workforce (excluding migrants).
50% of the workforce in China works in public sector.
it means around 200m of people can't use anymore iPhones.
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TSMC creates the chips for Nvidia.
TSMC expects Q2 sales drop as clients struggle to clear inventory, forecasting Q2 revenue at $15.2-16 bln vs $18.16 bln year earlier
Nvidia is forecast 11B revenue (+40%) with "surge demand" in Q2.
who is right?
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Tech’s PE has now jumped so much that it now trades at a 38% premium to the S&P. This is even higher than at the pandemic bubble peak in late 2021! Wild to think that pre-Powell pivot in 2019, tech traded at just a 4% premium to the market.
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At the peak in March 2000, Cisco was the largest company w/ a Market Cap > $500 billion. It traded at 39x sales.
Nvidia currently at 40.65x sales and 66x books.
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Investors are comfortable to buy a 2 trillion company with P/S 65.
Let that sink
$NVDA
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A 1-10 stock split is a clever strategy by Jensen. When the stock drops 80%-90%, retail investors will perceive it as cheap and continue buying as it falls, similar to what happened with Cisco in dot com, when its price plummeted from 80 to 8.
It's the same playbook.
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"This is beyond limits of physics, we had to invent some new technology to do this"
$NVDA
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How Nvidia is making sure they have consistent demand? by investing in AI startups which will purchase their AI chips! it's that simple!
Nvidia is one of generative AI’s most active investors. Let's review some of the deals the chipmaker is backing
Behind the scenes, Nvidia
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It's amazing to see how everything in the markets is perfectly set up for tomorrow when the "most important stock in the world," $NVDA, is going to report:
1. $NVDA is at ATH with an IV of "only 5%-6%" +-
2. $SPX and $NDX closed all bear gaps created since the downturn from
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You are paying P/B 70 for $NVDA at this price while the average in the semiconductors Industry P/B is 6.
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You requested a teaser for the $SMCI due diligence:
Super Micro shipped product to a customer who had not wanted the goods delivered for another month. A few days after the shipment, the customer stated, ‘Please reject this shipment … Why are you shipping this now?’” the order
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Around 50%-60% of Nvidia's total revenue comes from China and Mag 6.
By bidding on Nvidia to infinity,
you are:
1. Assuming Mag 6 will significantly increase their capex every year.
2.And if so, they will not sell their old GPUs at a large discount in the second-hand market.
3.
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To beat the guidance, Nvidia's accounts receivable have increased by over 23%, reaching $12.3 billion and continuing to grow rapidly.
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ARM is 100B with less than 4B revenue annually and 64 P/S.
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I'm in dubai for a short weekend and I can say that dubai is the most overrated and expensivr city I've ever been. If it wasn't for money luandering, this city would be empty.
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PwC is the auditor of Nvidia.
Liquidators for China’s Evergrande prepare to sue PwC over audits
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$AAPL reduces 3nm orders from TSMC
TSMC’s monthly production of 3nm process wafers may decrease to 50,000-60,000 in the fourth quarter, down from the 80,000-100,000 wafers previously anticipated, due to Apple’s reduction in its 3nm orders, Chinese media outlet Techweb has
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NVIDIA's Mystery Surge of 80% in Gaming Sector:
The Criminal Always Returns to the Scene of the Crime
During the Q3 earnings report, Nvidia surprised investors with an unexpected 80% surge in the gaming sector.
In the earnings call, NVIDIA's CFO, Colette Kress, mentioned that
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Apple's net income came in at $23.6 billion, down year-over-year, and the trend is clear.
If we do a simple math, Apple announced a $110 billion buyback while their annual income is expected to be around $100 billion.
Let's also not forget their liabilities-to-assets balance,
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CoreWeave from $30m in revenue in 2022 to $5B revenue in 2025? that's according to people familiar with its finances
Seems like, CoreWeave has unlocked the secrets to overnight success in a way that defies all known economic principles.
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Market paticipants price in:
- no recession at all
- Fed will cut 100bps this year
- QE started and will continue
- every Bank faliure, will get bailout
- growth in 2024 as we had in 0% FFR environment.
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Let me share my two cents on the markets and the economy, although most of FinTwit might not agree with me. They are calling for a bull market and a soft landing, but here are my thoughts:
1. The S&P 500 should have closed around 3900-4100 in 2023. The fact that it closed near
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MSM finally starts to report what we already knew.
$AAPL
$AAPL Vision Pro - eye fatigue/strain, headache, motion sickness, pain in the neck due to the heavy weight etc...
owners compliant that these occur after 30min-45min of using the device. So, how does Apple expect you to watch a full movie of 2 hours?
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$MU Ladies and Gentlemen,
This is Micron Technology, a company valued at $100 billion!
In FY2023, they experienced a record loss of $5.84 billion.
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In Q4, Nvidia's accounts receivable increased to $10 billion from $8.3 billion in Q3, indicating a growth of approximately 20.5%. Similarly, inventories rose to $5.3 billion in Q4 from $4.78 billion in Q3, reflecting an increase of around 10.88%.
$NVDA
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$NVDA another 2 directors sold the rip. They thanks for the exit liquidity
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So, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon all hint that self-developed AI chips will enter mass production around the end of 2024 or 2025. That means the shopping spree at Nvidia's shop-house is about to end in a quarter or two.
FYI
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For all the doubters, I suggest learning more about Nvidia's clients. Many of them are startups or companies with significant debt, which they use to buy chips to maintain momentum.
If they go bankrupt or run out of funds, will they still be able to settle their accounts
Enron vs. Nvidia: The increase in accounts receivable over one year looks very similar and raises some suspicions.
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And here is today's catalyst: China blocks use of Intel and Amd chips in government computers favours Chinese hardware.
$AMD $INTC
Sales to China have been a significant part of the total revenue of all American semiconductor companies, with Qualcomm for example accounting for 60% of their sales to China.
But look at the data from Nikkei:
"China's semiconductor imports in 2023 amounted to $349.4 billion,
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No guidance from Apple to Q3 tells you everything you need to know
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Took a screenshot to have some memory from the AI bubble.
Valuation: 1.57T
P/E 83.66
P/B 47
P/S 48.3
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Nvidia x Singapore: Keeping it Low-Key
I'm wondering why Nvidia doesn't talk about Singapore in their last 10-K?
Let's break it down: By nine months ended of October, Singapore was pulling in a solid $4.5 billion, while "Other Countries" only managed $2.25 billion (roughly
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Yesterday it was $AAPL and $MSFT carrying the market. Today, it's $NVDA and $TSLA. It's a game of musical chairs to keep the market propped up until the elections are over.
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As Wall Street increases pressure on Nvidia to meet their guidance, we can expect to see more loans with chips as collateral first invented by CoreWeave.
I'll share more details about Lambda soon.
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Nvidia's round-tripping game is truly impressive:
1. They lock clients into buying their GPUs, leaving competitors in the dust.
2. They then book the valuation of their investment and rake in revenue from these GPU sales.
3. Many startups either received GPUs instead of actual
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the Mach-1s, which Samsung prices at $3,756 each will be as fast as Nvidia A100.
$NVDA
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Nvidia invests in Hugging Face and a lead investor in Together AI. Later, the latter invests in Together AI, which use the funds to purchase Nvidia GPUs for its cloud platform for AI tasks at lower prices than those offered by AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud. Which means, they will
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Is Nvidia About to Repeat Cisco's Executive Mistakes?
“Salespeople don’t want to be caught without supply, so they make sure they have supply by forecasting more sales than they expect”
From Micron's latest ER we learn that they've completely sold out their HBM supply for 2024,
The Autumn 2000 of Cisco’s Discontent
On Autumn 2000, The Fortune 100 halted capital spending. Alternative telecommunications carriers disappeared, along with many of the dotcoms that had been so feverishly buying Cisco gear. That equipment ended up on a gray market; barely-used
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People are starting to wake up and ask questions about these AI deals involving $NVDA and $MSFT. I've been writing about these deals, tricks, and mechanisms for months. Check out my highlights.
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So, Lululemon, the most popular brand among the upper middle class, has provided soft guidance.
What does this say about the economy?
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Tesla's growth story has already ended and continues to worsen. That's why Elon has revived the robotaxi and AI narratives to keep the stock afloat.
$TSLA
TESLA CHINA DELIVERS 71,007 VEHICLES IN JUNE, DOWN 24.2%
China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) unveiled on Tuesday that Tesla delivered 71,007 vehicles in June, down 24.2% on a yearly basis. In the first half of the year, Tesla China sold 426,623 vehicles, down 10.47%
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In May 1999, one year before the dot com bubble started to collaspe, former Fed Chair Paul Volcker told an audience,
“The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the growth of the U.S. economy, which is dependent on the stock market, whose growth is dependent on
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Thread: Let's talk about $NVDA Accounting
Since ChatGPT launched, the demand for AI chips has surged. Nvidia, like every other company during a hype cycle (Dot Com and Crypto), used the momentum to ride the AI wave. They reported impressive ERs quarter after quarter, exceeding
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The competitors are doing great and Jensen is starting to feel the pressure.
$nvda
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I was among the first to raise the red flags about how China gets Nvidia AI Chips.
Now, after a pump to $550, Wall Street tell you what I told you few months ago.
$NVDA
Singapore x Nvidia - A Billing Location for Chinese Entities? A Violation of CHIPS Act?
If you recall, the 10-Q filing last week revealed that it obtained $2.7 billion, or 15 percent of its $18 billion revenue for the quarter from Singapore.
The comparison is even more stark
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Nvidia will be the poster boy of the AI Bubble with the biggest valuation loss ever recorded.
Nvidia’s, $NVDA, stock can soar 50% more as earnings power still isn’t priced in, per HSBC.
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Good morning, United States of America.
I've been pointing out this loophole since November. Oh, and guess what? ByteDance is incorporated in Singapore. And those sales to Singapore? I think Nvidia's attorneys will need to provide some further clarification.
$NVDA
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Tesla 20% of revenue comes from China...
Do you math.
$TSLA
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The Nvidia x2 long leveraged ETF accumulated a total of $1.41 billion in assets.
It will end in tears
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Nvidia has a history of misleading investors and engaging in channel stuffing. See below for an example from 2010.
Let's play a game: can you point out some eye-raising stats in Nvidia's latest earnings report?
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The SEC should closely monitor Nvidia's activities because it has all the characteristics that Gamestop had in 2021, but this time it's much riskier, as Nvidia is systematically impacting the stock market as the third most valued company in the US.
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NEED HELP INVESTIGATING A FINANCIAL MYSTERY🔍
How is a small Indian company, established in April 2019 with modest annual revenues of dozen millions, planning to fund its ambitious $1 BILLION deal to acquire AI chips from Nvidia?
Are they unlocking a treasure trove of hidden
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@Th3B4r0n
are you create new title for tesla? Also coscto is a data company. they have an insane amount of data from their grocery sales
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The $200bn video games industry is reckoning with its biggest slowdown in 30 years but Nvidia reported that their gaming revenue reached $2.86 billion, marking an impressive 80% YoY growth.
You wonder why?
Read my thread.
$NVDA
NVIDIA's Mystery Surge of 80% in Gaming Sector:
The Criminal Always Returns to the Scene of the Crime
During the Q3 earnings report, Nvidia surprised investors with an unexpected 80% surge in the gaming sector.
In the earnings call, NVIDIA's CFO, Colette Kress, mentioned that
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Databricks CEO Predicts Major Drop in AI Chip Prices - The Information
$NVDA $AMD
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Thats what I'm talking about.
5% up on no news for 2.2T company is not normal.
The SEC should closely monitor Nvidia's activities because it has all the characteristics that Gamestop had in 2021, but this time it's much riskier, as Nvidia is systematically impacting the stock market as the third most valued company in the US.
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$GOOGL a software company, with ~$76.7B revenue and ~$20B net income in Q3
$NVDA an hardware company, with ~$18B revenue and ~$9B net income.
and they're almost valued the same?
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So, Tim Cook's basically a frequent flyer to Washington, bringing along 60 lobbyists who work solely for Apple. And get this: they're racking up a $10 million bill every year, which doubled from 2017 to 2021.
Why? Well, Apple's dead set on keeping its monopoly on services like
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Driving Nvidia's rally - behind the scenes!
Let me introduce you to another important factor which drives the Nvidia's rally, aside the gamma squeeze: The "repurchase program period"
Nvidia's "repurchase program period" is three weeks before the ER, during which Nvidia itself
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Hot Jobs + Hot CPI = SPX at 3400s. The formula is that simple.
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A gentle reminder to everyone: according to Nvidia, major cloud providers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Oracle) accounted for more than half of the data center revenue.
The rest? Well, that's divided among unprofitable startups (kept afloat by round-tripping), Chinese
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Samsung wins contracts in South Korea over Nvidia.
$NVDA
Samsung won a contract to supply US$752 million of its Mach-1 AI accelerator chips to South Korea cloud giant, Naver, as it weans itself off Nvidia chips, media report, adding Samsung is also in talks to supply the chips to Microsoft and Meta. Naver wants 150,000 to 200,000 of
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$NVDA What happens once the companies got enough GPUs and no need anymore?
Case Study from Covid time:
1. $ZM
2. $MRNA
3. $PFE
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Just another day at Nvidia: invest in a company, and then they use the funds raised from you to purchase your very own H100 chips. It's quite the fascinating loop, isn't it?
$NVDA
H100s are in the
@RecursionPharma
house (undisclosed location) with our CTO
@bmabey
and team!
This is what one of the world’s fastest supercomputers looks like when it comes off the truck. Kudos to our team and our partners at
@nvidia
for the fast work and great collaboration!
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Tonight, in GTC 2024, Jensen asserts that the next-generation AI Blackwell GPU outperforms Hopper by x4. Last November, Nvidia showcased performance presentations where the B100 surpassed the GPT-3 175B inference performance benchmark compared to H100 and A100.
However, can we
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An update on my investigation on February 7, 2024 - NVIDIA's Mystery Surge of 80% in Gaming Sector: The Criminal Always Returns to the Scene of the Crime
It appears that someone at Nvidia read my post on February 7, 2024, and made some adjustments to their reporting segments to
NVIDIA's Mystery Surge of 80% in Gaming Sector:
The Criminal Always Returns to the Scene of the Crime
During the Q3 earnings report, Nvidia surprised investors with an unexpected 80% surge in the gaming sector.
In the earnings call, NVIDIA's CFO, Colette Kress, mentioned that
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Evergrande’s liquidators are preparing for a potential lawsuit against PwC, which audited the now-collapsed Chinese property group for over a decade, in a move that could lead to a high-profile negligence claim.
PwC is the auditor of Nvidia
I suggest you read my Thread below:
Thread: Let's talk about $NVDA Accounting
Since ChatGPT launched, the demand for AI chips has surged. Nvidia, like every other company during a hype cycle (Dot Com and Crypto), used the momentum to ride the AI wave. They reported impressive ERs quarter after quarter, exceeding
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Not a single AI or Generative AI startup has become profitable, and none of them have outlined a clear path to profitability.
Furthermore, even the Magnificent 7, who persistently hoard chips, fail to reap any value from that investment and are unlikely to do so in the
Markets trying to catch up to the Semi/AI rush, taking the NQ100 for the ride.
Blow-out quarters will turn to blow-down quarters, and then what?
The FOMO is real, and the price sets the narrative. In the same way you sold the bottom (because you were bearish, you will buy the
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4 executives sold s$40 million worth of stock and probably just ticked the top in $AAPL:
1. WILLIAMS JEFFREY COO
2. Adams Katherine L. SVP
3. COOK TIMOTHY CEO
4. PMO'BRIEN DEIRDRE SVP
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And the saga continues... Nvidia and Microsoft have invested in yet another startup that will conveniently need GPUs and cloud credits.
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$NVDA
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said : “We cannot let China get these chips. Period...We’re going to deny them our most cutting-edge technology.”
In addition, Raimondo said American companies will need to adapt to US national security priorities, including export
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$NVDA Nvidia price target raised to $305 from $245 at Citi with a bull case of $400 - keeps buy rating.
Citi calling for 1 trillion valuation
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Nvidia has informed us that, in the first quarter of the year, the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) began investigating Nvidia's alleged anti-competitive practices, joining regulators from the EU, US, UK, and China in their scrutiny.
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"Science behind the stocks"
It's gamma squeeze driving by 0dte and buyback.
You are welcome
$NVDA just cracked $700. It's my biggest position BY FAR.
Imagine if I listened to the hundreds of "value investors" calling me out for buying Nvidia stock at $200. And $350. And $500.
This is why it's so important to understand the science behind the stocks.
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