ZK Zhao
@zk7hao
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Product / Crypto / Data, UTC+8 豆瓣: 子珂; zkzhao.eth Views are my own
@primitivecrypto
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Pinned Tweet
so many CryptoxAI projects now 😵... how to make sense of them?
Share a bit of my taken on the CryptoxAI landscape, and best resources to learn about this space
A 🧵👇 (spoiler: full article link at end of the tweet)
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My take on the Crypto Data Landscape 2022
... progress, new products and my predictions, updated from my prev one 1y+ ago
A 🧵 👇 ...
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Finally have time to post this ...
My take on the Crypto Data Landscape, the 2022 definitive edition
... with tons of updates from 3mon ago, a lot more covered now
A 🧵 👇 ...
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简单记录一下smart contract快速入门的一些资源
主要用于了解实际项目的设计，入门和理解为主，不考虑硬核开发，适合PM学习dapp的设计方式
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最近有个说法，"USDT市值破历史新高，高出牛市顶峰市值"，好像牛市马上开始
虽然最近市场好很多，但数据上有些偷换概念了。如果真的看市值，增长主要来源于USDC的持续减少，换成了USDT (下图); 稳定币总市值并没有增加很多
这是我一直关注的币圈宏观指标之一，还以为手上数据出错了 🤣
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How can we prevent another FTX event? Can an exchange blend safety & performance? Sharing a bit of my research...
Orderbook DEXs: the next exit for crypto?
- numerous orderbook DEXs, how to understand them?
- any novel developments?
- what factors drive adoption?
A🧵👇 ...
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有点晚了，还是简单记录一下关于FTX事件的看法
具体影响有多大，还未可知
我觉得只是beginning of the end
应该是这轮周期币圈最大事件了（可能是币圈为止最大的事件），一些推测:
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@llamacorn888
已知缺老师一天的收益在2000u. Defi目前稳定币挖矿的收益在万5. 可知缺老师的稳定币挖矿仓位大概在5m左右。一般来说，稳定币只占缺老师这种eth大户20%的仓位。可以知道缺老师总仓位大概在25m左右，折合人民币2亿。再考虑到缺老师说的是至少。那么应该是在4亿的样子
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我认为并不是这样的逻辑。币圈有两类牛市
- 资产牛市: ICO, NFT, Inscription ... 直接创造出大量的新资产以供炒作
- 应用牛市: defi, gamefi, socialfi... 产生新的应用和基本面，可用投资
上轮牛市是defi 和 nft综合; 再往前看到ICO，其实就清晰了...
现在的行情让人想起了21年最狂热的“动物园”，所有人都陷入了价值币和meme币谁更有价值的大讨论。
其实我比较好奇的是，按照以往牛市规律应该是BTC涨--技术创新涨（如defi）--版块概念轮动---MEME集体爆发---NFT收尾。但是这一轮好像是直接从BTC涨跳到MEME爆发，中间环节出了什么问题呢？
没创新了？
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Sharing some random thoughts to my Web3 builder & PM frens
Why Web3 product feels different from Web2?
- why 'Web3 Discord clones' feels off from Web3-native products like Uniswap
- how to learn high-level smart contract concepts
- how to have more Web3-native app ideas
🧵👇
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6/
我才想到，近年来自己显著提升的能力是strategy
—— 短期的目标是什么，哪些可以不做，具体配合什么功能，用户真正喜欢产品的点在哪...并且清晰和上下沟通清楚
这样，在短期1-2月时间下，整个团队可以很有目标，围绕这个核心产出很多东西；非重点的部分效果不好，团队上下也很好理解
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Enough has been said about
@TeamUnibot
: price action, roadmap, dashboard, tokenomics ... but one important thing missed:
How they went from nothing to today in such a short time?
imo it's a really inspiring example for most crypto builders to learn
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4/
这点在和1y pm, 1st-time founder身上明显，因为执行层面做得都不错（大部分情况下比我强多了），但在面对不确定性环境时，缺乏方向，东做一点、西做一点
导致每个点都做得没错，但因为缺乏strategy, 对整个团队的消耗很大. mkt, eng, design每天在干活，但没有好的结果
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打算拉一个web3 product + growth的小群
不知道大佬们有没有合适的朋友可以介绍？
另外，也想做些规则，想听听建议
- 隐私, 内容不外传
- 6人小群, 要求水平大致相当
- 2周一次讨论/会议，持续2个月, 结束散伙
- 主要交流工作经验、讨论平时碰到的问题，也可以互相介绍人、工作机会.
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any web3 game dev fren here?
I was wondering what's the web3 gaming infra landscape and after some digging end up with this
make any sense? anything I missed?
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Sharing some random thoughts I've been thinking about for a while...
What is a fair way to raise money for a crypto project? and how to strike the right balance between investors and team?
Love to hear your feedbacks. For full ref
🧵👇
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感谢，能看懂的人也不多 🤣
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感谢
@Sky9Capital
大佬空投的
@OneKeyHQ
touch
用下来各方面完成度都很高，也可以体验到
@ohyishi
对UX的重视
想起自己以前也是支付相关，做全流程和生态不易。相比太多团队发个合约就融资几千万… 扎实做硬件、完整产品的团队让人佩服🫡
就是下次能不能早点空投，就不会和FTX一起归零了😭😭😭
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note: ~1y ago I wrote a thread on crypto data landscape; data and AI are quite related, but I dont find many things to update in that, so this time let's just talk about cryptoxAI
Finally have time to post this ...
My take on the Crypto Data Landscape, the 2022 definitive edition
... with tons of updates from 3mon ago, a lot more covered now
A 🧵 👇 ...
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1. Types & Structures
I find it's eaiser to categorize projects into:
- Gen-AI related: goal is to create things like chatgpt, midjourney...
- On-chain ML related: goal is to put ML models on chain (esp on EVM chains), apps like yield optimization, risk mgmt etc.
...
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- Dev component: things like data and hardware/GPU that are key supporting elements to AI dev (but not related to the client-side apps)
and for Gen-AI, On-chain ML we can categroize into App/Middleware/Chains.
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that's pretty much about it; thanks
@ahboyash
@caseykcaruso
@cwweb3
@0xjacobzhao
@Wuhuoqiu
@Julyan_Wang
for the feedback and discussion 🙏🙏; and love to hear feedback from you.
for full article can also check below
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5/
以及某些类型的产品看起来吸引人、别人在做，但是实际上要求非常高。因为web3可以直接观察某个细分赛道已经做过很多遍，都没做成功，��细分析可以避免走很多弯路
一些高光团队犯错，大部分也是strategy层面缺乏��验
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综上，对strategy的理解是3y pm和1y pm的主要区别之一 (我5y才有还是我太菜了🤣); 而且经历过了相当多的项目了才有体验，我刚毕业时也以为自己有在做strategy, 但回过头来看，实际上是看不到这个层次的，只是自己认为的strategy
在web3大创业环境下，能近距离观察极多的创业团队，也是快速成长的方式
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之前说过一个thesis, 叫做钱包2.0. 也就是随着onchain的兴起, 2017一代的钱包已经不够用了，有新的各类需求可以解决，也成为了新的流量入口.
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Shout-out to
@DarthCastelian
and
@hanjaycrypto
for treating me to such delicious pho, and what a great builder community they have built in VN!
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(1) 迭代制胜. GMX目前算成功，但刚开始却并不如此. 经历了XVIX -> GMT (bsc) -> GMX (arb)的迭代. GMT的交易量也很小，但团队看到了改进的方向，再做了一系列优化，于是有了GMX的今天
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哪些特点呢？safety + app + web browser (所以metamask出了手机端; onekey也出了网页端); cross-chain (eth + bsc + .. + sol); asset profile (山寨币的数据必须更全面更准确; 所以debank反过来也出了浏览器钱包); dapp browser; cex整合 (safepal) ....
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最近又有大v说, "U的入金还是没有明显增加"🤣
从数据看，上条推后增加蛮明显的. 但我觉得
- stablecoin mcap 不一定是牛市的leading indicators
- 对市场参与者来说，牛市与否没那么重要. 有行情能炒赚钱就行，没行情不炒就行了... Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?
最近有个说法，"USDT市值破历史新高，高出牛市顶峰市值"，好像牛市马上开始
虽然最近市场好很多，但数据上有些偷换概念了。如果真的看市值，增长主要来源于USDC的持续减少，换成了USDT (下图); 稳定币总市值并没有增加很多
这是我一直关注的币圈宏观指标之一，还以为手上数据出错了 🤣
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最后，GMX虽然优秀，但问题也很多。chainlink front-running是最大的问题; 交易模式也决定了BNB, SOL, LTC等没法交易. GMX只是当前技术限制下的一种过渡方案，用户量也就500人... it's always day 1.
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@ensdomains
@LensProtocol
@DegenScore
@poapxyz
@SpruceID
@discoxyz
@BrightIDProject
@DeBankDeFi
@nametagtweets
@arcxmoney
@showkarma_xyz
@sealcred
@OrangeProtocol
@ProjectGalaxyHQ
@violetprotocol
@Knn3Network
4.2 A better reputation engine? Not drop NFT from a one-time whitelist, but based on dynamic algo / data, incorporating as many data sources as possible, and can be transparent / used by daos. maybe something like web 3 mixpanel.
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@anqirocks
所以我特别不喜欢和大部分国内的PM交流 🤣
总是把产品抬到哲学、认知层面，觉得自己多高明、宏大叙事，把问题复杂化；不愿从一线、用户问题、市场机会、产品缺陷等实际方面思考（当然大部分人也完全不懂...）
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“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
好多人都喜欢把crypto比作互联网的早期，然后说互联网早期也一样荒蛮，所以crypto在荒蛮后也会有真正的繁荣。这种论调其实在逻辑上站不住脚，没有任何逻辑关系，Crypto也不是什么下一代的互联网。
互联网虽然泡沫过，但是实打实的创造价值从来都有，创造1分的价值，炒作3分的泡沫。
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但结果是arb带来了流量, 而且eth和bsc的用户群体差别很大. 目前愿意用链上杠杆的主要是eth的大户; bsc上散户对这个不感兴趣. 后来再部署avax又带来了大量交易量的不小增长. 都是非常关键的战略.
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2/ 最大的影响
crypto / web3本质在一个tech adoption的流程（下图），之前是快走到主流用户，预期会有大的增长；这次事件后，主流用户和资金接受度会回退，也就是大佬们说整个行业可能会倒退1-2年
- 新用户视角: 资金安全都没有保障的时候，谁去玩nft, social等各类web3细分赛道?
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@ensdomains
@LensProtocol
@DegenScore
@poapxyz
@SpruceID
@discoxyz
@BrightIDProject
@DeBankDeFi
@nametagtweets
@arcxmoney
@showkarma_xyz
2.2 Badge-issuance
@sealcred
ZKP-powered privacy NFT/Badge protocol; impressed by their execution, much better than competitors.
@orangeprotocol
goes a step further from
@poapxyz
@ProjectGalaxyHQ
, can issue badge based on dataset computation, not static whitelists.
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完全同意...
之前有朋友说要做价值投资... 问题是币圈的项目99%没有可持续的现金流 (可能几个大交易所除外了)，实际上都是meme罢了, btc本身也是meme起家
抛开争论观点，说个简单的道理。
币圈99%以上的币，本来就没基本面，哪里有热度和流量，哪个币就会涨。
你喜欢不喜欢，这也是事实。央视点名批评某币诈骗，立刻有游资去拉。
本质是，资金选择哪个标的表演都可以，自然选择观众最多的舞台。
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2. Why CryptoxAI?
recom checking this from
@MessariCrypto
; tldr
- issues like GPU shortage suitable for crypto experiment
- crypto is a good way to support open dev platform (alternative to centralized, close-source platform like OpenAI)
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(3) API is getting hot:
@nxyzdata
raised from paradigm,
@CoherentAPI
from coinbase, and
@TransposeData
is also doing well
(4) uni platform:
@SpaceandTimeDB
@ZettaBlockHQ
@ChainbaseOnline
all solid teams and very ambitious, and have good conn w/ me, recom trying
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Sharing my exp using ChatGPT so far! Hope this can be useful for my friends.
1/ Access
- Sadly, no easy way for most in CN to use
- Recom getting plus + API together: cheap & powerful
- Special thanks to
@Cydiar404
, w/o him I wouldn't have been able to use GPT-4 at all!
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1/
一直以来我都觉得做PM很容易
不是“哇我想了个牛逼的点子，明天上线”这种容易
而是——“竞品调研、客户访谈、快速原型调整、具体方案、上线后分析数据、复盘”，这种容易
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其实就全层面，我最希望见到的是Nansen和dune的合并. 就是一方面有极强的造血能力，另一方面又能平台性的回馈社区。不过现在资本直接买单也好。dune最大的问题就是不赚钱....但也不应该赚多少钱
1/ 今天都在说 Nansen 和 Dune 的融资和估值，也跟朋友大概聊了一下，因为我们也有类似的业务。
个人认为
@nansen_ai
的融 $70m 融资（估值）有些高了，而
@DuneAnalytics
$100m 估值则是低了。🧵⬇️
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1/ 整体影响
- 二级市场: 短期内流动性进一步降低 -> 所有项目估值下降
- 一级市场: 受二级市场估值降低、资金短缺的影响 -> 融资进一步变难
- 主流市场、tradfi: 受ftx scam影响，短期内不会进入（~6mon），场内资金进一步短缺
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1/ recently i was thinking about the data stack in crypto data space; and find we can categorize crypto data orgs into different layers: data collect, data dev, and data app (similar to data platform in big tech companies)
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and that's pretty much about it!
and so happy to finally meet IRL w/
@JoyceInNYC
,
@Mulan0x
,
@RaccoonHKG
,
@NintendoDoomed
,
@2lambro
,
@0xSea
,
@byobu4
,
@cwweb3
and all my anon fren. really appreciate your help along the way 🙏🙏
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any giga brain looking into crypto-native leveraged product? e.g.
@stella
,
@AlpacaFinance
,
@ExtraFi_io
...
love to learn about your thinking 🫡🫡
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3. Any good material to dive deeper?
@caseykcaruso
thoughts on decentralized AI
my thoughts on decentralized AI in a thesis + anti-thesis format
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... problem space. Love to hear your ideas on it, and hope we can see more Web3-native apps 🤣
Thanks to
@0xShah
@sharqwy
@angelomint
@ArthurZubkoff
@RiceMaximalist
@NintendoDoomed
@Web3holy
@0xBobie
@dAnxBuidl
@jasonmeinzer
@lazervike
for the encouragement and feedback🙏
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@yuyue_chris
是这样没错，几个角度
第1层: 单纯炒作热点罢了，币圈见过太多
第2层: AA是新应用模式的基础的一部分; 比如说真的有新的应用了，要吸纳新用户，基于AA当然更好 (infra <-> app是互为飞轮的)
第3层: 但这个点也未必, stepn这个级别并不需要AA (直接中心化完事); ton network也不需要
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Recently, I delved into a book on venture studios. It was not only easy to grasp but also quite inspiring for builders in the crypto space. If you're considering building your dapps today, I highly recommend it.
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3/
但这几年在crypto / web3观察了大量项目，很多失败和很少的不错的，我发现还是有区别的
有些项目，虽然背景豪华，团队来自顶级大厂、学校，拿了顶级vc的钱，但却发现项目做得太烂....甚至直接重复踩一些别的团队踩过的坑，实在太明显不过的strategy问题了
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2.3 data dev / data infra
(1)
@DuneAnalytics
is certainly leading w/ a lot of progress, and
@flipsidecrypto
is catching up quickly (some good release recently)
(2)
@AlliumLabs
(seasoned team),
@onluabase
@GeniiData
focus more on biz customers (vs. community)
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这样说有些抽象，可以举些web3的例子
- GMX退出bsc, 选择arbitrum re-launch
- 无数的web3 social里, farcaster为什么可以跑出来
- 这么多defi insurance失败了，还有人想做，起码可以避免哪些坑
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目前日交易量100~200m, 和bitfinex futures接近; tg社区4k人; coingecko top 200, 估值略低于perp
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3.5 Communities / DAOs
@MetricsDAO
: finally a DAO for ppl work w/ data, but sadly no time to get involved 😭. Analysts are rare assets in crypto (prob more data startups than analysts atm 🤣), and I believe communities can bring amazing value to the industry in the long term.
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@oran_ge
之前写过一些
- 写文档
- 轻量原型代码
- SQL 分析数据
- 调研和阅读文档、总结文档
- diagram (目前有plugin说支持，不过我还没试)
Sharing my exp using ChatGPT so far! Hope this can be useful for my friends.
1/ Access
- Sadly, no easy way for most in CN to use
- Recom getting plus + API together: cheap & powerful
- Special thanks to
@Cydiar404
, w/o him I wouldn't have been able to use GPT-4 at all!
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2.3
@DefiLlama
just so surprised and impressed that they made this far; much better offering than lots of vc-funded projects; shipping nonstop, fully open-source, tracking hundreds of protocols... just incredible.
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- if you're a crypto user: hope this help you understand the crypto data space in general, and maybe find some products useful to you
- if you work in crypto data (analyst, dev, investor...): hope it cover sth that you missed 🤣🤣.
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4/ 学习材料推荐
4.1
@AlchemyLearn
- Road to Web3
应该是目前最好的教程
- 有视频
- 大部分有github代码
- 具体用例为主（从基本的721标准，tip, staking, 到marketplace...）
非常好理解，2-3天可快速看完（如果只关心核心的智能合约概念）,可惜challenge部分没有参考
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@ensdomains
@LensProtocol
@DegenScore
@poapxyz
@SpruceID
@discoxyz
@BrightIDProject
@DeBankDeFi
@nametagtweets
@arcxmoney
2.1 Profile / Reputation
@degenscore
. cryto-native and well received so far, very fun.
@showkarma_xyz
serious reputation solution, already partnered w/ ENS, Gitcoin to tackle governance reputation scoring.
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This is really a good move for
@impossiblefi
, as now arbitrum does not have a really reputable IDO platform, but market demands it; and impossible has the exp that can help those projects and real builders
1/n Wanted to share a bit of the behind the scenes of why we're bringing our
@impossiblefi
product and community to support new projects within the
@arbitrum
ecosystem:
Impossible started on BNBChain in 2021, where BNBChain was the dominant player.
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@DistilledCrypto
AI watchelist
Updated AI Watchlist - (25 w/o Tokens)
Web3 AI is teeming with innovation, DYOR.
AI Agents:
@Dainprotocol
: AI agent economy on $SOL
@MorpheusAIs
: smart agent tooling
@ShinkaiProtocol
: agent operating system
@Polywrap_io
: agent development platform
@Chainml_
: B2B AI agent
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420
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4/ the fix of FTX
顺带聊聊下一代交易所，怎么避免盗用资产。一年前就有朋友在做相关的事，简单聊聊
目前最好的方案应该是starkex的，几个特性
- proof-of-reserve: cex中的用户资产持续更新到链上，外界可不断对账
- force-withdraw: 可以通过智能合约强制取款（有条件）
但这个东西也没那么好，
FTX shit couldn't have happened on StarkEx, the
#1
Self-custody exchange tech.
Powering
@rhinofi
,
@dYdX
,
@Sorare
,
@Immutable
,
@canvas_defi
,
@reddio_com
and more on the way.
More here:
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- 投资视角: 之前是只要宏观走好，币圈作为增量市场自己就能走出来；现在这个增量要打问号了. (昨天晚上的宏观数据反应也印证了这一点)
实在太过可惜，宏观转折点一些看法是这2个Q可以见底，结果这一遭，宏观和币圈没啥关系了...
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作为投资人，也需要从这个最本质的角度去看项目，哪怕是在牛市顶峰。很庆幸给身边的朋友提示了风险，不幸的是MCB又套牢了一些朋友🤣。这点对非Defi应用也很重要。比如曾经全网热议的Monaco, 现在还有人用吗？
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(2) 专注核心. 在crypto做项目方，找好的vc的钱很重要，做好社区很重要，有meme很重要，有CMO很重要... 但做好核心的东西最重要（在链上杠杆交易来说是交易机制）. 所以看到GMX没有拿VC的钱做到这个地位，而FST拿到了顶级VC的钱，做了1年却一地鸡毛.
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(4) 活跃的社区. GMX的社区人很少，但非常活跃. 贡献了dashboard,
@GBlueberryClub
, leaderboard等很多内容; 而且也有
@FloodCapital
@DoveyWan
等大咖站台. 在我来看，就是让社区资本获益后, 会由衷的为项目呐喊、加油. 或者对大佬们来说，就是和大伙一起赚钱，比一个人赚钱更有意思吧.
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@Christianeth
不是这个意思。这些书说好听一点是"屠龙之技", 说不好听一点，和绝大部分创业团队一点关系都没有. 远远不如YC startup school的课程来得有用、实际，我更推荐创业的视角.
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在 能看到核心团队只有2个全职; 最开始分配的不过是$500k 2年线性解锁。可以看到团队是相当有格局的
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这类机制优化的效果很难预知, 直到上线才有反馈。而一些很明显的思路（比如fst/lev基于uni做margin trading），则因为没考虑完整的交易成本而无人问津. 目前GMX的方案，是绝大部分团队最开始想不到的。但又是根据市场、技术迭代出来被接受的东西
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具体到dydx上
- 每6个小时对l1 智能合约上的用户资产同步一次
- 没有开启force-withdraw
也就是说，最多也就是能看到有那么多钱，但出问题了可能你也提不走. 而且撮合是中心化的，依然能作恶
所以短期trade sentiment买dydx没啥问题，但局限性还是挺大的
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@ensdomains
@LensProtocol
@DegenScore
@poapxyz
@SpruceID
@discoxyz
@BrightIDProject
@DeBankDeFi
@nametagtweets
@arcxmoney
@showkarma_xyz
@sealcred
@OrangeProtocol
@ProjectGalaxyHQ
@violetprotocol
@Knn3Network
Finance-side would be different (violet protocol, very useful use case). However, if web3 is the future, VC should be the answer. I'm short-term bullish on onchain DID (easier adopted by crypto-natives), long-term bullish on VC based DID (privacy & mass adoption).
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不讨论炒币，从builder角度回顾，因为是一个很近、很真实的创业“阶段性成功”的例子。对于新进web3, crypto的新创业团队可能有所启示
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- I still think bootstrapped data app team (vs. vc-funded) will in a better position in this bear market. sometimes it doesn't cost too much to build a decent data app (e.g., nft analytics), and if you do w/ 2 people, and can get ppl pay, then you're profitable from day1 ...
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