InfantTurdPowder.eth
@zhanginu
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Following
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Statuses
16,208
Used to pay 15x rev in SaaS.. Now ready to pay 2-3x EBITDA in Energy. Gender fluid male in RL, female in TWTR (s/he)
Australia
Joined January 2015
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
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Pinned Tweet
Panic day checklist:
- get energy exposure (so insulated against energy crisis which may cause taper / stagflation)
- make sure everything works on FY25 P/E not FY30 P/E
- trim some high P/S stonks (remember P/S 20 de-rating to 10 means 1/2 your $$ gone)
1/2
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Precious metal investors have higher pain tolerance than just about any other group of humans alive.
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Speaking with a PE at dinner…. why aren’t you taking
#coal
companies private at 1.5x ebitda?
PE: our investors are instos / pension funds. ESG bro.
There’s no capital hence no supply response. Even at $300/t
#CoalTwitter
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53
532
$WHC $WHC.AX
Never again will we see an ASX100 company ask to buy back 25% of its stock within 12 months, funded purely via operating cash flows.
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I was 100% cash waiting for more bear market. Now I feel the FOMO.
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Coal doubled life expectancy
Coal gave us prosperity
Coal 10x’ed our standard of living
There’s near perfect correlation between coal generation & global GDP growth.
Only nuclear can replace coal.
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$GLEN on why you want Newcastle, relevant for $WHC $NHC $YAL
A trading house is uniquely positioned to understand the coal market, albeit they are also super biased.
#coalTwitter
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A sell rating isn't disrespectful enough on its own they've got to misspell the company name too $WHC $WHC.AX
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Hits the spot 👇
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Had a shower thought which isn’t new or profound. It’s something I’d almost forgotten.
The greatest opportunity of our generation isn’t AI. It’s the market is pricing 50 year assets as if they are gone in 10 yrs
#coalTwitter
@mfwarder
@YellowLabLife
@respeculator
@dyer440
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Commodity equities are the most inefficient market I’ve seen
There’s no rational formula for why one commodity trades at 20x ebitda and another at 2x ebitda.
As a generalist looking in from the outside it seems like it’s all based on ‘vibe’.
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Once I pivot from commodities I’ll instantly lose 60% of my followers.
Preemptively saying goodbye my friends, it’s been nice knowing you guys.
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Why you might wanna consider investing in the ASX for this decade:
@agnostoxxx
do you agree it not stupid?
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I'm a small cap investor you can't hurt me anymore
Most of my holdings dont trade anymore
Those that trade dont go down anymore coz everyone on the register has given up trading
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New morning routine..
wake up, do turd, drink coffee
Open $WHC $WHC.AX model, subtract $10m to EV, offset by shaving 1.5m shares off SOI
check NewC, pinch myself to see if
#coal
still at $300, update strip/spot price
Shave 1c off AUD/USD
Add 5% to SP
morning tea time.
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Infant turd is of average or below average intellect.
So it takes great comfort from
@agnostoxxx
advice ‘don’t be stupid’
And from Buffett / Munger ‘everyone is trying to be smart I’m just trying not to be stupid’
This is how being average can beat the average.
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The world has never had an energy ‘transition’ apart from maybe whale oil.
It’s usually energy ‘addition’ with dominant forms of energy being superseded in size by a SUPERIOR source, but not displaced.
#coalTwitter
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How did a company that actually make $$ end up on this list.... :|
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Some people are comparing
#coal
to
#lithium
in terms of retail popularity.
I decided to explore this narrative by checking HC, a forum popular with retail.
$PLS - 441 likes for Dec report
$WHC - 27 likes for Dec report
#CoalTwitter
may be mainstream but it’s not that 🔥
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#coalTwitter
is gonna get unbearable!!! Get ready!!!
$WHC.AX $SMR.AX $YAL.AX $TGA.L $HCC $CEIX $BTU $TECK $ARCH $AMR $METC $GLEN.L $NHC.AX
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Thank you 🙏
#coaltwitter
An Australian court blocks a proposal for a huge coal mine, saying the emissions produced by the fuel would threaten human rights
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Do people want free $$ or not?
$NHC approval...
#coaltwitter
5-5.5mtpa of nearly royalty-free thermal coal, for <$300m capex at similar cost to Bengalla.
5 x say A$300/t margin.. ..adds ~$1.5bn pa of EBITDA?
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Used to pay 1-3x EBITDA in energy, now back to paying 15x revenue in SaaS.
Goodbye fwens at
#coalTwitter
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I'm so disappointed with the tiny dividend I will sell my $YAL tomorrow
70c FF off $6.17 SP is nothing when I can buy:
1) $WHC 32c FF off $7.32 SP
2) $SMR 0c off $3.56 SP
3) $BHP US90c FF off $44.55
TINA?
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They say once you go black you can't go back..
Tried to step out of this trade for 3-6mths and can't get away.
Lets bring
#coalTwitter
back! good to see the cousins
#uranium
bros and
#oil
bros doing well too.
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#coaltwitter
busy trying to put together a narrative for last few days
How to explain $TGA.L down 10% then up 7% on no news.
How about this? Market is a donkey.
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$BTU would probably benefit from a price cap.
Any government negotiated cap would be higher than a $BTU management negotiated price.
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Had a nice bite of $WHC $WHC.AX today. Satisfied.
All those people complaining about divvies.. just buy $YAL.AX $YAL
We are here to eat 2 loaves of delicious bread... and we will sell a slice to some steel mills.
"The slice will cost more than the loaf" - Big Kev
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To my new woke followers & fellow bagholders sliding into my DM, I’m not actually short $WHC $WHC.AX
You think I’d be shorting the most cash generative biz on ASX selling a product that you can’t get any new supply for 10 years (if ever)?
#CoalTwitter
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$WHC.AX - not enough instos to fill register? No problems.
$20m+ bought back yesterday.
Take out all those paper hands!
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Bracing for tourists and/or pros to puke $YAL to lower EV than COVID lows and cum dividend to boot.
Somehow I’m scared to death by this NEWC puke even tho my model is saying don’t worry …
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Got a call from $KAR.AX $KAR registry person trying to tell me to vote for the directors.
They tried to say how good the acq was (d/g) and considering divvie
That was a timely reminder for me to vote alongside
@FredWoollard
and the REBELS.
Lets take down the DEATH STAR!!!!!!
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I shorted $WHC last night coz
1) production was down due to floods
2) coal price declining through shoulder season (thought nobody else knew abt seasonality)
3) La Niña coming up
4) TTF down
Forgot about the cashflow. Oops…
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What the heck.
Last thing I want my government to do is to turn into VC.
Zero respect for our tax dollars.
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Grandpa died this morning in NZ. No flights available to see him or to attend funeral.
But my biggest regret is not that I can’t be there but not being more active sharing the gospel with him over the years.
He died without any hope & was fearful.
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Holding on hasn’t been easy for
#coaltwitter
in 2022
Narratives we survived:
- Mongolia
@alexbhturnbull1
- demand destruction
- met to thermal switch
- wash harder of lower CV
- flood
- windfall taxes
- China production
- Indo production
- peace treaty
Any I missed?
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#coalTwitter
furious at each other over dividends versus buybacks
versus
#tech
investors hugging it out when their companies hit adjusted EBITDA or OCF breakeven
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You could almost feel the confidence in PF's balls as his company's cash balance swells. $WHC $WHC.AX
@YellowLabLife
your boy now giving talks at ESG conferences
@eadatt
@respeculator
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Over last 10 years, Aussie shareholders and companies have collectively transferred ownership of tier 1 30 to 50-year assets for a fraction of their worth to the Chinese and the Indonesians.
An absurd violation of fiduciary duties.
Nobody is really talking about this.
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Purging the ‘tourist class’ shares $30-$40m at a time.
Reminder to self this game takes patience.
At some point you run out of marginal $WHC sellers for each price point.
Re-rating is… inevitable.
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My Uber driver pitched me $YAL $YAL.AX
Am I buying at the top?
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When do we start to call $WHC baby $BHP..
A very dirty baby...
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If I put my credit hat on:
$YAL is by far the best pureplay
#coalTwitter
- Explicit parental support
- Diversification across 3 buckets of coal
- Geographic diversification across 2 states in tier-1 OCED jurisdiction
- 30-40mtpa vs peers at 12-14
- Clear capital return strategy
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Optimistic on:
- coal (met & thermal)
- oil & gas
- copper
- international students
- leisure
- travel (in & out)
- cybersecurity
- energy transition (spades & shovel on stupidity)
- med tech
- ed tech
- consumer treats (small ticket items)
Pretty common sense really…
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Another
#coal
project bites the dust... $GLEN $GLEN.L
Greens and
#coaltwitter
unite in celebration.
Japanese/Koreas/Taiwanese mourn...
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Reporting season will be upon us soon.
Reminder to
#coalTwitter
very few companies will have clean results like
#coal
companies:
- Pristine debt free balance sheets
- Huge growth on pcp
- Minimal capex
- 60%+ EBIT margins
- Fat dividends
- Favourable outlook
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#coal
on 4-5x earnings and 1x P/B will be dragging ‘team evil’ down a fair bit.
$WHC.AX $HCC $SMR.AX $YAL.AX $BTU $AMR $ARCH
Companies that people see as evil tend to trade at lower multiples.
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Is it ok to gloat just a tiny bit.... $WHC $WHC.AX
@JamesMo86676773
depend on the structure/terms, but i think once its in trading halt and people get to read the rationale and examine the assets they might be less fearful than they were in the last 1-2 mths.
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I’m growing convinced that $WHC $WHC.AX is the CoalCo that I’ve dreamed about growing up.
Glenteck is good but they don’t have
1. A lifetime of franking credits to come
2.
@RaymondZage
3. A perpetual free option on further $BHP woke ideology
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Consensus sell side FCF for $WPL was $271m
Actual: $851m
Your full time job was to forecast this number....
Actually it probably shows how few dedicated energy analysts are left on the sell-side...
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Listening to $WHC AGM...
the board and mgmt deserve a payrise...
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If you are an investor, savour every minute of this bear market.
You will learn about pricing power, economic moats and valuation and margin of safety.
All those things that sounded primitive & basic will suddenly make sense.
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$WHC.AX scenario:
Q3CY22 3 months of ~$400/t (price lag): $1bn FCF
Q4CY22 3 months of ~$250/t: $546m FCF
CY23 12 months of ~$200/t: $1.5bn FCF
CY24/25 24 months of ~$150/t: $1.8bn FCF
Residual EV in CY25: -$185m
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I thought. How much can multiples compress at P/E 1x.
Turns out, a lot.
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Soaking as much $WHC $WHC.AX as humanly possible this morning....
Hand over your shares to me!
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$SMR $SMR.AX royalty is up from ~13% to ~26% effectively, using new tax
At A$1.56/share, FCF yield now ~78% on spot.
With nearly half the world's seaborne coking coal from QLD, the question is what % of the tax be passed through higher seaborne met coal prices?
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What if NEWC halves to $200/t tomorrow?
With 3-4 months price lag, the probable net cash balance for $WHC $WHC.AX is ~$3bn (~$1bn net cash + say ~$2bn FCF from 1H FY23)
At $200/t NEWC, you realise ~32% FCF (or 3 year payback) and get the next 15+ yrs for free.
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Nobody was paying attention to $YAL.AX now they love it.
Market is asleep on its baby brother.
You gonna regret it Ms Market.
#coalTwitter
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Looking at running a ‘SaaS Saturday’ spaces for
#coalTwitter
to transition to goldilocks
We start with:
‘Software as a service 101’
We will cover metrics such as
1. Price to TAM
2. LTV/CAC
3. Rule of 40
4. PEG
5. Double twice, triple 3 times - how to build unicorn in 5 yrs
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You only need one good idea to have a decent year.
Perhaps only one good idea to have a decent career.
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The year is 2050.
The west is net zero. Electricity is so prohibitively expensive, all manufacturing, smelting, refining capabilities are in China and its allies.
China is by far the world's most powerful country w/ most naval bases. All trade is done in RMB.
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$NHC $NHC.AX still advertising a role to help release their quarterly update. Too much $$ to count.
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Courtesy of the same IEA that brought you "no more new fossil fuel investments ever" last year.
This year, they found out what everyone who actually knew about energy was warning about.
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Why are there obsessive
#coalTwitter
people around?
I just found out that
#coal
has been the best performer in EVERY commodity bull market over the last 125 years.
Thanks to
@Go_Rozen
and
@Billypasdemates
for this interesting insight.
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A coal baron in 2020s
Or
A Russian metal trader following the collapse of the Union in 1990s?
Hard to choose.
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Everyone has a superpower.
As I was walking home I found mine.
If you gave me today’s NEWC price, I could literally tell you the run rate EBITDA and EPS for $WHC $WHC.AX
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Blah blah blah $1.5bn cash a quarter for $YAL. Higher than $PLS
Yes feel free to focus on the production ‘’miss’
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If you want cheap met there’s $HCC $ARCH $SMR.AX etc
If you want cheap thermal there’s $YAL.AX
If you want a mix there’s $BTU
Why the obsession with $WHC $WHC.AX?
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Seeing my
#coal
buddies make too much coin they’ve all embraced journalism as a pursuit beyond wealth
@respeculator
@eadatt
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$WHC.AX $WHC management getting more conviction on higher 4 longer:
Dec 21: Both thermal and metallurgical coal prices are expected to be well supported over CY22.
Mar 22: Both thermal and metallurgical coal prices are expected to be well supported over CY22, and into CY23.
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The turd tried to restrain from commenting on these things but, isn’t ‘mental flexibility’ a highly desirable attribute in a professional money manager?
$WHC $NHC
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Don't short stock about to unleash a $2bn buyback spree.
I am very very smart.
$WHC.AX $WHC
#coaltwitter
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The turd has been waiting 15 years for this.. $NHC $NHC.AX
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Fun fact:
in 2012, $WHC $WHC.AX had a ~A$4bn market cap (similar to today).
2012 revenue $620m EBIT <$100m
2022 revenue $2bn+, EBIT $1bn+
It was a growth stonk trading on 6x P/S!
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China feels like a tech dystopia end-game.
Cab drivers conceding defeat to platforms. Terrified of self-driving cars.
Malls don’t make $ selling goods, only experiences (food, playing with cats, gambling for kids)
Shops moving to automation & self-serve
Youth no jobs.
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Who knew its easier to build a coal mine in UK than Australia..
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It used to be only smaller funds that suffer all day with $WHC in their benchmark..(small ords accum. index)
now that $WHC.AX is in ASX100, everybody gonna feel the pain....
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Was a roller coaster. Very divided among $WHC lovers but I am in the yes camp.
ASX100 inclusion in 1-2 years as equity eats into debt. I can’t wait to see the dumb money forced to own this ~30mtpa monster of
#coal
If $WHC buys 2 BHP mines without raising ANY equity...
Production goes from 13mtpa to 29mtpa. Assume financing is via a mix of surety, bank debt and vendor financing. We dont know the $ amount but assume US$3bn to US$3.5bn range as per articles.
Does share price go up or down?
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