Zerosumgame33
@Zerosumgame33
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Contrarian small/micro cap investor focused on event-driven/special situations with catalyst(s) to unlock asset value & earnings power.
Joined April 2020
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$CLMT Catalyst path:
1) DOE loan closing ($778M cash) - Q4'24
2) 3P financing recapitalization - Q4'24
3) Takeout '25 (new '26) notes - Q4'24
4) Institutional NDR - Q4'24/Q1/25
5) Asset sale/de-lever (PB/Specialties) - Q4'24/Q1'25
6) MRL monetization (Shell)/de-lever - 1H'25
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1/...As of TTM ending 3Q’22, TSLA’s Energy business (~5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of… ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook it’s potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being...
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I’ve spent 3-5 hours a day for the past 6 weeks researching the ins and outs of the TSLA Energy/Megapack story (I’ve probably shared ~1/3 of my work/thoughts on Twitter)… it parallels AMZN/AWS circa 2018/19 which led to the AMZN price explosion.
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Megapack winning....
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I’m currently working on a thread defending my views that > 50% Megapack margins are factual, sustainable, defensible, and durable. 👀 excited to share. $TSLA
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Why isn’t anyone talking about the 53 ACRES of building space being built out for Megapacks in Texas 🤷🏼🤷🏼🤷🏼👀👀👀😵💫😵💫😵💫
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1/ Let’s face it, most TSLA investors are involved in the stock for the growth of the EV business/EV adoption/Replacement demand opportunity as ICE/gas vehicle demand withers to zero. Most, if not all, investors are IGNORING the significance of TSLA’s Lathrop factory...
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🫢 Hold up...If TSLA can produce $3 of EPS out of one 40 GWH factory, and their 2030 goal is 1500 GWH (68% CAGR), and there is infinite demand for battery storage, $3 x (1500/40) = $112.50 x 25 / 15% cost of capital disc. 7 years is $1,057 per share just for Megapacks. Gulp.👀
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Think this move in Tesla off the low is huge? Just wait till the market soon realizes the energy biz is much better margins and much bigger TAM, and recession proof, and the government is giving out 50% coupons to buyers. 🫣🫣🫣🫣🤭
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@WholeMarsBlog
Omar, Megapacks are the single greatest opportunity I've seen in my experience in public equity investing, particularly relative to TSLA's current market cap. I'm willing to die on the sword.
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1/ Every investor has their own philosophy on what drives stocks – mine is deeply rooted in identifying misunderstood/ignored inflections in earnings power. TSLA’s Energy biz is unequivocally the single greatest corporate sandbagging, and intentionally miscommunicated business...
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Announced ~1 hour ago: TSLA wins 1 GWh Megapack business to be installed by 2025...
1 GWh appears to be the average project size for TSLA. Equates to 255 MP's = ~$550M revenue
quietly flying under the radar...
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1/ I believe TSLA’s 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable, defensible, and durable. 50% hardware margins come straight from web-scraping Tesla’s order configurator from . Margins are a function of drivers of price and cost...
I’m currently working on a thread defending my views that > 50% Megapack margins are factual, sustainable, defensible, and durable. 👀 excited to share. $TSLA
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🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Further evidence of > 50% Megapack margins - a full blown analysis wall street has missed.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Conclusions:
✅TSLA did not sell any Megapack XL’s out of Lathrop in 3Q [herein referred to as MP2]
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$TSLA if we break $190 brings $240 real quick & sets up for the $260 gap fill.
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👀👀👀 This BY FAR the best YouTube video I’ve watched on the tesla megapack story. I highly recommend watching if you aren’t up to speed on the high level facts.
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I predict TSLA will announce a $10B share repurchase authorization on 3/1 at investor day.
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Elon is guiding/operating under the assumption of a “severe recession”. He’s said it many times. What happens if we don’t get this severe recession? Margins surprise, deliveries > 2m, Megapack profit explodes, fsd adoption surges, risk appetite shifts to mega cap growth? $500? 🫣
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Arevon - Tesla MP’s
#1
biggest customer - secured a $400M loan for its 6 GW solar pipeline. I expect more Megapack deals to be announced with Arevon. Tesla has 6 GWh/2MW of arevon biz coming online in q1/2.
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I don’t know what I said, but two weeks ago I had < 50 followers, and now I have > 5K. I guess some people are reading my shit 🤷🏼 just trying to make $$.
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My wife and I went out for dinner tonight. We talked a lot about Megapack economics. She gets it.🤣
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Is Megapack XL the Apple Iphone of Energy Storage? Take a look👀👀.I dug into competitor’s hardware data specs, contract terms, and warranty provisions to determine Megapack XL is superior to most alternatives. It’s fair to conclude CATL has a somewhat comparable storage offering
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How will the market re-rate TSLA stock when it soon discovers > 50% of 2023 EPS will come from a RECESSION PROOF business with extreme pricing power, fat margins, overwhelming production capacity share,& software contracts? I would be deathly afraid to be short the stock here. 🫣
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Based on TSLA Energy inventory breakout in the 10K for the first time, I think it's fair to conclude that Megapack is ramping.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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TSLA virtual power plant (VPP) appears to be scaling… another potential sleeping giant in TSLA’s energy complex being ignored/not valued.
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TSLA $400 by 1/1/24
Calls go $4 --> $50
I would not sell there either.
TSLA Energy being ignored.
TSLA Energy will surpass TSLA EV.
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I’ve tweeted 2,687 times about megapack since 12/18/22💪🏼 I think 2023 energy is going to be a game changer for Tesla. It’s not priced into the stock at all.
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Ok I totally missed this... targeting 20+ GwH by end of year 2022????? this was back in Jan.... could 4Q's energy ramp be that big!!!
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$TSLA Everyone crying for a $10B buyback should shift their focus to crying for more Megapack factories. It cost TSLA ~$200M to open/buy the Lathrop, CA. factory with a 12 month ramp-up. Breakeven unit is 200 Megapacks, which at current production rates they can make in 8 days.
1/...As of TTM ending 3Q’22, TSLA’s Energy business (~5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of… ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook it’s potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being...
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😂TSLA missed by 3% in a q where ~40% of their customer base was faced with buying “now” vs. buying “later” with $7.5k tax credit (15% of ASP) avail Jan 1. The IRA created a major, material timing issue for buyers. If a company ever deserves a pass, it’s now. Bears too excited.
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IMO, TSLA either going to $115-$120 or > $165 tomorrow.
Buckle up.
Adding to my position < $110
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Oh let the games begin.
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Why is Tesla energy ignored and why does the opportunity exist?? 1) TSLA covered strictly by auto analysts, 2) historically no gross profit given sub-scale (Pre-Lathrop), 3) TSLA has mentioned the word Megapack on earnings calls only 7 times over the past 2+ years.
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I’ve watched this video 71 times in the past 3 hours. I have separation anxiety from the calls I sold earlier. Megapack tsunami is coming. Have a nice weekend.
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TSLA Megapack is eerily similar to AMZN AWS. Look what happened in Q1 2015 when AMZN broke-out AWS in its financial statements. The rest was history. AWS Cloud Storage = Megapack Energy Storage.
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My conviction on TSLA Megapacks just quadrupled. When the biggest TSLA bear on the street doesn’t know the GWh capacity of Lathrop - and therefore hasn’t crunched the numbers on earnings power - you know the opportunity is rather significant.
The Astonishing Economics of the Tesla Megapack | It’s come to my attention that the $TSLA Faithful are beginning a new bull narrative(FSD and robots are so 2021-22), based on “Megapack” utility-scale battery storage. See this breathless article below:
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Don’t forget… the market has priced Tesla energy as a $0. 2023 will surprise. Megapack gross profit is 70x that of one EV. None of this is “priced in” or being discussed by the street. Analysts are too distracted trying to GUESS on quarterly delivery numbers. Big picture.
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Elon’s Twitter drama, coupled with Fed over-tightening post-pandemic, are two “black swan” gifts to non-TSLA shareholders who want in, and current TSLA shareholders who want more.
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$EOSE I'm going to reach out to the company to see if they would be interested in doing a twitter space hosted by me....
Like this if you would tune in...
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Mic Drop. Sound the ALARM. ‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️📢📢📢📢📢📢📢
Is TSLA soliciting companies located in 1) high fire threat districts, in 2) low income/disadvantaged communities offering them to deliver/install Megapacks for FREE?!? To capitalize on INSANELY LUCRATIVE state incentives like
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How does the stock react when in the next quarter or two the market realizes Lathrop will provide Tesla a recession-proof earnings stream selling a mission critical system financed by tax credits to utilities that dampens the cyclicality of autos? 👀👀👀
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At $140/sh. with a fully diluted market cap of $485B, $TSLA is trading for 20x the NET CASH on its balance sheet as of 4Q.
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The IRA just gave all the utilties/IPP’s a 50% off coupon for Megapacks. 🤣😂🤣😂🤣. A recession proof business just got even more recession proof.
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@WR4NYGov
@JPSartre_NoExit
This proves you’re out sniffing for controversy just to get followers and eyeballs to your YouTube channel. I’m not engaging.
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1/Here is my updated $TSLA Energy model based on the earnings power potential out of Lathrop producing Megapack XL (4-hour duration/3.92 MwH) using the exacty cost of goods (fixed/variable) per my web scraping of the front-end of the Megapack order configurator...
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TSLA Investor Day:
- No new product launches
- White covers on all the new cars
- White covers on new energy products
- No buyback
- Not much on Megapack
- Nothing on forward financial targets
- Typos in presentation slides
- Elon sounds drunk/confused
- FSD was too technical
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/31… big shout out to
@TSLAFanMtl
for being a great sounding board for the analysis and for
@MarketMaven2022
for opening my eyes to the lathrop ramp. These guys are smart.
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Ohhhh nothing much to see here folks...
Except for the
#1
raw material in TSLA Megapacks - Lithium Carbonate 99.5% - down ~20% off its peak in ~2 months...
MEGA MARGINS
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$TSLA Bear raid, margin calls, fund liquidations, put gamma squeeze, EoY tax loss selling, ESG funds dumping, you name it. There is nothing fundamental about this move to $140
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Update on the Megapack order configurator. Earliest delivery date is now 4Q'24 vs. 3Q'24 last week.
Backlog growing....
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I need to go thru the 4Q numbers... but the thing that stands out the most FOR me
Based on my math, TSLA sold ~600 MP1's in 4Q (in-line w/ what I was expecting) and has flushed out MP1 backlog. We also saw slight sequential GM improvement to 12%
Q1 energy GM's going to EXPLODE.
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2/...not significant enough to drive TSLA’s earnings power. However, I, like a few other very smart TSLA believers, believe we’re right on the cusp of a radical sea change in earnings power from the woefully ignored Energy biz given the parabolic ramp-up of...
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10/ After reasonable opex and 15% tax, I estimate TSLA will earn ~$3/share in EPS from selling Megapacks out of Lathrop in 2023. At 30x (comp NEE trades at 27x) Lathrop at full capacity is conservatively worth ~$90 per TSLA share, or ¾ of today's abysmal TSLA share price today.
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FYI
I dumped ~50% of my TSLA 2025 leap position for ~300% return. Looking for a pullback to buy back what I sold. This is a tactical move. I could be wrong. But $198-ish feels top heavy to me.
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$TSLA if Tesla puts up 475K Q1 delivery # and puts up a > 20% energy gross margin quarter with strong sequential deployment growth...
🚀 $250-$275 Imo.
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None of the move in TSLA from $100 --> $190+ had anything to do with ANYTHING I ranted about on Megapacks.
If Megapack margins are in fact > 50%, and TSLA ramps up Lathrop quickly, the ensuing move in TSLA stock will dwarf this one.
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TSLA Lathrop is going to SHOCK all the auto analysts in 2023.
A tsunami of MP2's is coming, and wall street is in the eye of the storm.
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Edit: I wouldn’t be obsessing over Megapacks as much if 20+ Wall Street analysts “covering” Tesla weren’t ignoring it so badly. Consensus for Energy is $2B in gross profit by 2026. They might do $10B at Lathrop alone next year and into ‘24. ☄️When you CRUSH market expectations…
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Just wait till ARKK starts hyping TSLA Megapacks...
It'll be robo-taxi on steroids
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3/1 TSLA Investor Day.
TSLA will take the Energy cat out of the bag.
Word will spread like wildfire.
Morgan Stanley is modeling 40 GWh by 2028.
Let that sink in.
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Everyone panicking about Tesla missing numbers have never experienced a “relief rally” before. Buy-side Expectations were horrific going into the q, the street # doesn’t matter. We had a 50% drawdown in a matter of wiz - that rarely happens in mega cap tech. My bet is green Tom.
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Shorting TSLA in the $300-$350's given the macro backdrop sorta made sense.
Shorting TSLA in the low $100's makes no sense.
Whoever is shorting TSLA at these levels thinks earnings are permanently impaired.
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Why did Elon say Q4 would be “epic”? Strange the only real catalyst that supports such boldness is Lathrop production coming online. I’m not saying this is my base case, but if the 25 per day figure is true, could Q4 show an 8-10 GWh deployment? I wonder…🧐
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$TSLA I lost ALOT of faith in Elon and management after that horrid earnings call. That could have been the worst Tesla call I’ve ever listened to. Nobody is equipped to answer basic financial questions. I feel like they aren’t being truthful. Price elasticity is a fantasy.
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1/Surprised NOBODY is talking about this CATL news...TSLA will now have zero issue sourcing battery cells from CATL for 10K Megapacks going forward as CATL very recently expanded into the upstream part of the Lithium Carbonate (LCE) supply chain – the key raw material that...
1/ I believe TSLA’s 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable, defensible, and durable. 50% hardware margins come straight from web-scraping Tesla’s order configurator from . Margins are a function of drivers of price and cost...
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$TSLA just wait till the market gets hit in the face with 50% Megapack margins at scale. It’s coming. And nobody talking.
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REAL MONEY is made when you can identify with conviction the street is wrong/low. The street is RARELY wrong. Mega cap companies are WELL COVERED. Tesla energy - Megapacks - is a diamond in the rough that will create millionaires.
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5/...By year-end 2023, TSLA will have deployed ~64 GwH of capacity, equivalent to an ~8x increase in GwH deployments over the TTM period ending 3Q’22, with upwards of $16B in gross profit contribution generated by TSLA existing and unconstrained 16K current MP backlog at Lathrop.
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4/...out now. Lathrop began pumping out larger format MP’s in Late Sept/early Oct at the tail end of 3Q’22 which failed to materialize into 3Q earnings. 4Q is set up for material earnings from Lathrop, and will 100% flow thru to TSLA’s earnings by 1Q’23.
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50% stock drawdown and they ONLY missed deliveries by 3% largely because of vehicles in transit (again). 😂this stock is going up tomorrow.
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@elonmusk
You need to hire new coders bro. Anyone can right-click on the Megapack ordering page on the Tesla website, pull up the Devtools page, and search in the scripts for your Megapack XL gross margins to the penny that feed into the pricing formula...👀👀👀👀🤣🤣🤣
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Tweeting this again because it is likely THE BEGINNING of the Megapack hysteria soon to come. The market still IGNORING. There is 1,950 MW of BOOKED Megapack business Tesla will be BRINGING ONLINE, and PAID, by 2Q 2023. Equivalent to 2,010 total Megapacks.
1/In Sept. ’21 , TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of 6 GwH from a big renewables co. named Arevon. At the time of the win, TSLA didn’t have enough capacity to fullfill the project So, TDLA decided to build 40 GwH at Lathrop...
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@GordonJohnson19
This is the first sensible thing I’ve seen you tweet since I discovered your existence.
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1/In Sept. ’21 , TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of 6 GwH from a big renewables co. named Arevon. At the time of the win, TSLA didn’t have enough capacity to fullfill the project So, TDLA decided to build 40 GwH at Lathrop...
1/...As of TTM ending 3Q’22, TSLA’s Energy business (~5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of… ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook it’s potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being...
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How many times do I have to reiterate that megapack is a 2023/2024 play and not q4 2022? The more I see this shit the less I wanna post my thoughts.
@Zerosumgame33
I hope you are correct but you're going to have a major reckoning after this investor call tomorrow.
You've been throwing out pretty lofty numbers and I'm sure they're going to address megapack. If you're right, that's great, but if not you've been throwing out a ton of HYPE!
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TSLA Energy in 10 points
✅Replacement demand [fossil fuels --> solar/wind]
✅Wall St. ignoring Energy growth/margins in estimates. Energy storage a nascent investable theme
✅New Lathrop factory 10K units per year ramped 3Q'23
✅Industry demand > capacity = pricing power
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👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀
I'm on a roll here...
Who missed this news?
If anyone has been reading my claims of MP1/MP2 Fixed price contracts/Lith carb skyrocketing...
you GOTTA read this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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7/...According to insiders familiar with the Lathrop ramp, at the end of October, TSLA had gone from pre-production/tooling/commissioning to ramping production capacity to 25 MP's per day at Lathrop all in the span of 8 to 10 weeks! According to TSLA’s MP configurator the...
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$TSLA doesn’t take a genius to figure out what 80+ GWh of megapack capacity translates to earnings power in 2025… oh wait, Tesla Energy is still an afterthought on Wall St. 😈 2025 calls 💪🏼🔥💰
Official confirmation: Tesla China's Megafactory has a production capacity of 40 GWh/year, construction will start in Q3 in 2023, and production will start in Q3 in 2024.
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Advice: Ignore anyone talking "price targets". Real, experienced, savvy investors do not talk this way. "Price targets" are fictitious sell-side/wall street verbiages to keep the research commission checks flowing
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Holy crap... why is this not getting more attention?
4680's going into stationary storage!!!
FF 11 Min.
Gulp.🚀
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Just to be clear: I think Tesla Energy (Megapacks) will surprise and outperform in 2023 and 2024 relative to expectations. I DO NOT CARE about 4Q deployments.
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3/...next-gen Megapack XL’s (hereinafter referred to MP’s) in the Lathrop, CA. mega factory which broke ground last September and within a year’s time, has just become fully operational. Prior to Lathrop, TSLA produced smaller format MP’s in Nevada – these are being phased...
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Bravo! 🤝 great Megapack thread by the Cat. I repeat: LATHROP MEGAPACK RAMP IS NOT IN WALL STREET NUMBERS/EXPECTATIONS. 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
1/Megapack has been generating a lot of noise in the community lately. There has been a ton of great info shared by
@Zerosumgame33
on most every aspect of the Megapack business.
At first glance, the numbers seem too good to be true.
How can Megapack be this disruptive…
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Over the next 6-12 months as $TSLA gains traction in FSD, Energy, Insurance, AI, the market will be forced to value the company on a “sum of the parts” basis rather than purely on cyclical auto earnings. That’s the playbook that gets us > $1T market cap.
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$TSLA Wall street’s 2023 EPS range is $3.77 to $7.97 😂 I’m at $9 inclusive of cuts to EV ASP. I think Megapacks are destined to surprise.
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My only motive in this operation was to help. With the stock down 70% from ATH I was hoping some helpless shareholder(s) would read a different perspective on what to be excited for in the near term instead of realizing losses in his/her retirement account. I’m not here to pump.
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Megapack model. I’m at > $4.50 EPS in 2024 from 60 GWh of production. 25x is $116 per share.
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Omg.
Megapack video says CAN produce 1 every 68 mins.
Thats 7,729 run rate right now = 21/day, = ~25 GWh!!!!!!!!
This video gave me goosebumps.
Shit, I might have to buy back my calls now.
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👀TSLA Lathrop now on-line leapfrogs them ahead of the energy storage pack. (BESS only, not battery cell mfg.)
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Critical observation: TSLA's Megapacks have extreme pricing power. Megapack XL coming out of Lathrop commands an 80% premium to
#2
US competitor Fluence (FLNC). on ASP per MWh charged to customer. FLNC caters to utility-scale customers, but average order size based on...
1/ Let’s face it, most TSLA investors are involved in the stock for the growth of the EV business/EV adoption/Replacement demand opportunity as ICE/gas vehicle demand withers to zero. Most, if not all, investors are IGNORING the significance of TSLA’s Lathrop factory...
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$TSLA I am leveraged long into Q1. I believe Q1 deliveries beat expectations and set the tone for the remainder of the year. I also believe margins will be better than feared. Energy should pick up steam in Q1, and will begin to control the narrative beginning in Q2 and beyond.
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