#11E
Hurricane
#JOVA
Satellite:
#METOPC
#AVHRR3
Time : 2023/09/07 0444Z
Eye Temp : 26.373688 °C
#JOVA
is the strongest tropical cyclone in 2023.
Incredible eye temperature and wonderful CDO.
#HAFS_B
18Z run forecasts
#95L
(Future
#LEE
) will reach 144.7kt/920.4mb in 123 hours. The beautiful IR and WV satellite imageries are simulated in this run.
The vertical wind shear is dramatically decreasing now.
With very favorable condition,
#Rai
is undergoing rapdi intensification now.
High end CAT-4 or even CAT-5 is expected.
ECMWF Ensemble of
#91B
48r1 (new version, 9km EPS) V.S. 47r3 (old version, 18km EPS)
9km resolution EPS can forecast much higher intensity of
#91B
than older version.
#ECMWF
new version 48r1 has released for than 2 months. The resolution of ensemble improves from 18km to 9km, which will lead more stronger TC intensity.
However, the forecast for future cyclones in Bay of Bengal is extremely different.
#JOVA
is indeed a powerful CAT-5 storm. However, great NHC gives
#JOVA
135kt intensity. Without aircraft observations,
#NHC
has no ability to estimate intensity of this storm. If there is no aircraft observations of
#Patricia
, I think
#NHC
may give it 140kt based on Dvorak.
Hurricane
#Dora
is entering into higher SST region, low vertical wind shear environment will last for 2-3 days. Further intensification is still possible.
#GFS
#06Z
forecasts 3 powerful tropical storms (
#Talim
#98W
and future storms) entering into South China Sea and one tropical storm forming in South China Sea. It's incredible typhoon season.
The dropsonde from
#Ida
's eyewall shows the stronger wind (113kt) in low-level (920hPa), indicating the intensification of eyewall.
The Vortex Data Message (VDM) indicates the eyewall of
#Ida
is finally closed.
The intensification rate may accelerates during next few hours.
#Rai
is similar to
#Eta
. They all have a very cold CDO (CDG) but very poor eye.
If you take a look at CDO in these storms (using another color bar not BD), you will find the CDO is loose.
I don't think
#Rai
is a CAT-5 typhoon.
#ECMWF
latest forecasts
#01B
#MOCHA
will encounter relatively strong vertical wind shear until landfall. However, such strong VWS doesn't prohibit intensification absolutely, but can limit
#01B
to become a monster cyclone like previous forecast.
Incredible. Hurricane
#Dora
is recovering from strong vertical wind shear and re-intensifying again. However, another extremely violent vertical wind shear is coming very soon.
Favorable outflow triggers the development of the outer rainband of
#Mocha
, which accelerates the secondary eyewall formation. Unfortunately, eyewall replacement cycle may generate large wind filed and tend to cause more damages.
#GFS
06Z forecasts
#93W
will be a very strong typhoon in Southern China Sea.
Central pressure : 925.3 hPa
10-m height wind : 120.1 kts (T1534 grid point)
Latest news!
2020
#JTWC
Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports has published.
The reference of cover image should be revised.
It's from easterlywave () not NRL.