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AI consultant. Classical liberal. Interests : Complexity theory, chaos, AI, entrepreneurship, economics, technology, human flourishing
Joined September 2021
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New piece where I argue that advances in computing power and AI won't help us plan the economy using computers. Link in bio.
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Since Milei deregulated the housing market :
- 200% rise in housing supply
- 20% decrease in real prices !
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Demand curves have been shown to slope downwards experimentally in animals, schizophrenic people, and so many more settings. Denying supply and demand is flat-earther stuff.
Let us arm you with a 19th-century oversimplified model to deal with 21st-century complex systems. It won't make you a better thinker but it justifies the regressive fantasy of "self-regulating efficient markets."
Let us worship and protect the totem of neoclassical economics:
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Only 50% of introductory econ textbooks mention government failure, and among those who do, their coverage is 6 times shorter than market failure.
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In "individualism and economic order", Hayek cites Wilfredo Pareto who shows that the number of equations to make central planning work is way too big. It increases polynomially, and probably combinatorically if you include production, distribution and other aspects.
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After a good track record on crime he went full dumbass on economics
🇸🇻 El Salvador's Bukele promises to treat businesses like criminal gangs after food prices rise.
"Stop abusing the Salvadoran people or don't complain... I expect low prices tomorrow or they will have problems."
Populism rots your brain.
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Rich nations should be setting up dozens of special economic zones and trying different policies. Dozens of policy labs. This would teach us so much about quality governance.
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I agree homo economicus is wrong and maybe not as useful as its propnents believe. But supply and demand predates homo economicus and Arrow and Debreu. It is pretty much the only model with as much explanatory power in all of social sciences.
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There isn't a single capitalust economy in the world that is centrally planned and that book is rubish.
Marx in the 1840s: Capitalism will develop into socialism.
Mises in the 1920s: Socialism is impossible because centrally planning an economy is impossible.
Capitalism: Develops into a centrally planned economy.
Marx in heaven: See!
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IQ researchers really said "I want to explain the variance in income with IQ, let me first reduce the variance in income by removing outliers".
Garbage science. If you don't use their preprocessing, IQ explains 1% of the variance in income.
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The Austrian school developed Game Theory (Morgenstern), Marginalism (Carl Menger), the economic calculation problem (Mises and Hayek). They did not all agree on methodology but it is not true that they did not value empirical evidence.
For those who aren't aware, most Austrian economists OPENLY reject empirical evidence as necessary for economic reasoning (!!)
LEFT: Mises 1963 asserts that praxeology is not empirical or verifiable
RIGHT: Murphy, Barnett, Block 2010 claim that praxeology is akin to geometry
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What A LOT of people don't get. When a lawyer hires a cleaning lady who saves him 3 hours per week, he uses these hours to generate perhaps thousands of dollars of value. This won't appear on the cleaning lady's fiscal impact.
Look what finally got published!
TL;DR: Under some OK assumptions, the indirect fiscal benefits of low-skilled immigration might outweigh the direct fiscal downsides, because low-skilled immigrants make natives more productive.
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National IQs correlate with basic skills tests like PISA, except for subsaharan Africa where they are much lower than what would be predicted by basic skills tests because Lynn fudged the data because he hated black people and wanted to "phase them out".
If Becker and Lynn's IQ dataset is so bad, why do their figures correlate so well with differences in "basic skills" between countries?
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@SocDoneLeft
@ReviewsPossum
Zero evidence that unionizing the public sector help build more nuclear capacity. It might be the best way to inflate costs and thus decrease cost efficiency of decarbonization.
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Wow, I didn't know Stiglitz argued Hayek based his ideas on perfect competition. 70% of Hayek's economics work is about how perfect competition models are leading economics astray, he *really* hasn't read him. Incredible.
"It is embarrassingly clear that Stiglitz has not read much of Hayek. The claim that Hayek based his political economy on perfect competition...is nonsense. Hayek won the Nobel Prize in economics for showing the opposite..."
✍️ Cento Veljanovski
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National *socialism*. Naziism is a philosophy of envy and resentment, just as much as its left-wing counterpart. Never forget that.
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Democracy put Hitler in power and maintained segregation in the American south. "Democracy in economics" is how we starve.
When socialists talk about creating a more equal society, we don’t mean a society where everyone has an exactly equal share of everything. We mean a society where power has been equalized by extending democracy into the economy.
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Such a great quote. A PhD in pol. sci. might know much, much more than a truck driver about policy. But both of them know less than 1% of what would be necessary to plan a country or an economy.
“Compared with the totality of knowledge that is continually utilized in the evolution of a dynamic civilization, the difference between the knowledge that the wisest and that the most ignorant individual can deliberately employ is comparatively insignificant.”
— Friedrich Hayek
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This retard is defending Mao now ?
“Socialism sounds good in theory, but never works in practice.”
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New article. Link in bio.
I refute what I deem Piketty's central ideas, but since they are widely shared among social democrats the article is also a good rebuttal of the latter.
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Economists are willing to lie and support a platform with *price controls for food* to prevent the populist right from gaining power. Never take economists too seriously.
France’s ‘hard left’ has been demonised – but its agenda is realistic, not radical | Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty
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IQ explains ~9% of the variance in probabilistic reasoning, ~4% of the variance of hypothesis testing tasks, and ~1.5 % of the variance in Bayesian reasoning (In an academic setting). It is not a test of intelligence.
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School should be much shorter, actually. We can't have young people sitting on their ass producing nothing for society until they are 23 or 25 in a rapidly aging population. Beyond math and literacy almost everything you learn in school is useless.
@muke10101
School attendance should be mandatory, school years should be longer, and progressive teaching with student-directed learning should be the norm wherever possible
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My top 5 favourite economists :
1. Friedrich Hayek 🇦🇹
2. James Buchanan 🇺🇲
3. Armen Alchian 🇺🇲🇦🇲
4. Frank Knight 🇺🇲
5. Elinor Ostrom 🇺🇲
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I know several people who have raised >300k. None of them are billionaires.
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There is no evidence of a poor country becoming rich with the nordic model. Only of rich countries staying rich with the nordic model. There is evidence of poor countries/regions becoming rich with a economically liberal model : Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Shenzhen.
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This paper arrives at the same conclusion taking into account the speed of modern computers. In fact computation speed is limited by physics, and computers will NEVER be able to do central planning at a large scale.
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Thomas Sowell is much more than just anti-woke tirades. "Knowledge and decisions" is one of the best books I've read. 5 stars.
@RishiJoeSanu
Thomas Sowell wrote a 400 page version of "The use of knowledge in society" i.e. "Knowledge and decisions". I just finished it and it was awesome, highly recommend.
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Even though I do not agree with Rawls, we should thank him for defeating Marx in academia. His system is much harder to debunk than Marx's, for which it takes 5 minutes.
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Marvelous book. Economics, History, Complexity theory, Philosophy of mind, Philosophy of science, Psychology, the role of Math, Politics, etc... This book has everything to satisfy all your intellectual taste buds, like a gourmet meal.
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Equality under the law is a marker of epistemic humility. We do not know at birth who will be a great businessman or scientist, as many eminent men were of humble birth. Hence we give everyone the same rights and let the game play out.
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Milei gifted the Pope Hayek and Mises books 😂😂
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@PCockshott
@PhilWMagness
The fall of the USSR has been a miracle for life expectancy. It's time to retire Paul.
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Absolutely insane how much traction the degrowth narrative has in France. Glad it isn't the case in North America.
41% of French population is in favour of a proposal to limit everyone to 4 flights in their entire life.
59% of 18-24 year-olds agree.
2 return flights. Not per year: per life.
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To distribute 100 goods between 300 million people, it would take 2.6 million years for a modern *supercomputer*. Note that Americans have access to WAY more than 100 products currently.
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The problem with the Laffer curve is that many people who use it assume that the state should maximize its revenues. Most public spending is not backed by a shred of evidence. The state should not maximize its revenues and let people have their money instead of spending it on BS.
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Italian Fascists gained votes in the 1921 election thanks to socialist voters switching to the Fascist party.
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The road to serfdom is an great book. But if you imagine this is Hayek's best work, you need to read more Hayek.
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@jonatanpallesen
There's literally a Pole, an Armenian and a Montenegrin among the rapists. There were both white guys and middle easterners among the criminals. But I do agree they should have spent their life behind bars after that.
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"What is intelligence ? Whatever IQ measures. What is IQ ? a measure of intelligence ?"
That is currently how IQ being a measure of intelligence is justified by psychometricians, in a circular fashion.
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As shown by Bryan Caplan in "The case against education", beyond basic numeracy and literacy, almost everything children learn in school is useless and they forget it not long after they leave school.
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When you press "degrowthers" about their ideas they usually say " We don't actually want to reduce GDP, we want to reduce activity in economic activities that harm the planet, we should stop caring about GDP". So cap and trade ? You want cap and trade ?
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Summary table of the literature on innovation policy. The top two policies were high skill immigration and R&D tax cuts.
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Reminder that tens of millions of people died because marxist biology said "plants of the same social class never compete with one another". That's the reason behind the biggest famine in the history of humanity.
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Yet another growth miracle ! Remember that exactly 0 growth miracles were achieved through socialism.
This amazes me each time I see it, what is happening in Poland is nothing short of economic wonder. Standard of living in Poland overtaking Spain & Italy within just one generation is simply amazing.
Capitalism and free market are the only proven way out of socialist poverty.
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If you don't think this meets the definition of "socialist", replace "socialist" with "anti-capitalist"
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Several Austrians reject Praxeology and Mises' a priori method. It is not true that most Austrians reject empirical evidence.
@johnkvallis
@moicanoufc
For those who aren't aware: Most Austrian economists OPENLY reject empirical evidence as necessary for economic reasoning (!!)
LEFT: Mises 1963 asserts that praxeology is not empirical or verifiable
RIGHT: Murphy, Barnett, Block 2010 claim that praxeology is akin to geometry
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76% of economists oppose or strongly oppose public ownership of enterprise.
58% oppose or strongly oppose tighter controls on immigration.
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If Milei is smart, he will amend the constitution to allow several charter cities or special economic zones like Prospera in Honduras, rather than rapidly slash government. It's the proper way to implement Libertarianism.
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Capitalism works : China's special economic zones grow faster than nearby zones (difference in differences model). These zones have less taxations, tariffs, regulations etc...
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When they say "everything is political" they mean "everything SHOULD be political and controlled by us".
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Economists agree. Rent control does not work.
"Economists and housing experts disagree on whether rent control is effective."
No, no, they really don't disagree! (Yes, they found one economist -- you always can)
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Lakatos went hard on Marx. A student of Popper, Lakatos was initially a Marxist but came to see its flaws.
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The liberal model works for rich (Switzerland) and poor (Singapore, formerly) countries. The nordic model "works" (as in "doesn't collapse") for rich countries only, so far. I think it is fair to assume it would never work with an unskilled workforce and high corruption.
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Tariffs make no sense economically. In some circumstances, they might make sense geopolitically. But then again, because of public choice theory problems, economic sanctions almost never achieve their goals so I think tariffs are *almost* never justified.
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My gf studied anthropology, they teach them the green revolution was bad for some reason, probably anti-capitalist/modernist sentiment. The green revolution fed the world and those who knowingly deny it are evil.
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When Twitter censored the political right we only saw how stupid the radical left is on this platform. Now that the right is free to speak its mind we can see how absolutely dumb the radical right wing is. Elon twitter made me more skeptical of the right, paradoxically.
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Full quote and source for the "phase them out" claim :
National IQs correlate with basic skills tests like PISA, except for subsaharan Africa where they are much lower than what would be predicted by basic skills tests because Lynn fudged the data because he hated black people and wanted to "phase them out".
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The 4 books that had the most influence on my political thought
4 books that had a major influence on my political thought.
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"There is zero downside to selecting for intelligence"
Imagine being this stupid
On the topic of eugenics, there is zero downside to selecting for intelligence. On the other hand, it is easy to see how selecting too much for openness or extraversion could be problematic.
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Marx also believed foragers lived peaceful egalitarian lives. It was, of course, bullshit. There's pretty much nothing worth saving in Marx.
Back in the 1970s, feminists anthropologists often claimed that small-scale societies were more gender equal, as there were weaker restrictions on sexuality.
Actually, they had extremely high violence, often involving capture & gang rape of women.
- graph from
@sapinker
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No, it doesn't. This review of pretty much every RCT in criminology in the past half-century found that counseling and therapy don't work. Rehabilitation is not backed by evidence, only incapacitation is.
@memechaotic
Norway also has an extremely low re-offense rate, because rehabilitation works
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Wicherts et al. (2009) find that the best predictor of whether Lynn would include a study of African IQ in his estimates is... whether it found a low value.
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IQ science keeps crumbling
There's a pattern that predicts who does well on IQ tests: people who spend more time on hard problems.
New work w/
@samisaguy
extends a 40 year old finding about the role of effort in IQ testing, showing why these tests aren't bare measures of "intelligence."
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@nntaleb
Before the French arrived in Morocco, the majority of the population were tamazight (berber) speakers. Arabic was forced upon us by the central government, i.e. internal colonization. It is not our language, so I am not offended it is not present in French airports.
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The nordic model is funded by high taxes on the middle class, not on the ultra rich. It's the only way to have a v. large welfare state because the ultra-rich are not enough to fund it.
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For some countries, he didn't have data so he just filled the map with the neighbouring country's estimate. It's complete BS, complete scientific misconduct, fabrication of data. So yeah, it's a shit dataset.
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IQ science keeps crumbling. A lesson in how scientific consensus can be very wrong !
A new study on IQ and job performance dropped. Sackett's claims are vindicated, AND they fail to find support for the claim that IQ predicts better in "high complexity" jobs.
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Indigenous societies before western contact :
Matriarchal communities ✅️
LGBTQ+ acceptance ✅️
Sustainability ✅️
Child rape ✅️
Cannibalism ✅️
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The truth about this is that often, average people are completely incompetent to make decisions about health policy, geopolitics, macroeconomics, etc... But in such domains with high complexity, experts often also do badly, despite them having more information !
The road to hell is paved with pseudoscience—constructed by personal anecdotes, conspiracy theories, and narcissism.
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It's true that the Talmud is pretty shocking. But then again so are the hadiths and much of christian doctrines. Let alone the caste system in India. They single out the Talmud because they hated jews in the first place. The talmud is not uniquely bad.
Dan Bilzerian on how Jewish supremacy is rooted in Jewish religious texts:
"If you read the Talmud... if you're not Jewish you're basically not human, you're like cattle"
Good on him
@DanBilzerian
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None of this is valid causal inference work, of course. All of these studies are confounded. But even if 50 years from now we prove beyond any reasonable doubt that some IQ gaps are genetic, it still wouldn't matter that much because IQ is a bad predictor of economic productivity
A lot of people who are now following me are not caught up on the basics of the black-white IQ gap.
In the 90s, there was a study that adopted little kids out to white homes. The kids were black, mixed, and white. The blacks were 15 points below the whites and the mixed kids
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@RishiJoeSanu
Roko has shown his ignorance of economics AND computer science. Hayek/Polanyi : Too much knowledge is tacit and cannot be expressed in statistical form to be conveyed to a central planner. Ignoring that, it's also an NP hard problem. Central planning fails both ways.
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If you don't think this meets the definition of "socialist", replace "socialist" with "anti-capitalist"
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@dieworkwear
I agree, I'm just teasing you. You often make very interesting threads about clothing. We're allies in the war against skinny suits.
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This is one of the strongest arguments against libertarianism, I believe.
"up to 60 per cent of the reduction in total urban mortality between 1861 and 1900" in England Was due to government investment in better sanitation and water infrastructure.
"the contribution of infrastructure investment to the decline in mortality from different types of
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Most important day of the year !
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It was only a matter of time before this retard went full anti-semitic. He can add this to his long list of credentials like being a rapist and a pedophile. Some idiots on this website get their political analysis from him lmao, sad !
I AM BOYCOTTING THE OLYMPICS.
I will watch NOTHING.
The opening ceremony, planned and orchestrated by a gay jew, was disgusting.
I will be placing signs outside of the French embassy in Romania tomorrow at 7pm.
Respect Jesus.
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Thomas Sowell at his best is incredible. Knowledge and decisions is profoundly insightful.
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Mathematical game theory is not empirical yet it produces useful results. Praxeology was an ancestor to game theory, Morgenstern was Mises' student. Mises did not deny the importance of empirical evidence, that quote does not entail that.
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Really hope Milei won't try to implement some cartoonist, teenage version of Libertarianism and discredit the idea across the world. He seems crazy, but maybe it's just an act to get votes. Idk.
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Socialism doesn't work. In this study of Israeli kibbutzim, the people who tended to leave kibbutzim were more competent than average, and those who joined, less competent than average. Important brain drain.
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I could agree on every single issue with open border libertarians, except open borders, and I would still not vote for them because of how insane an idea open border is and how little we know about its potential effects. It's potentially catastrophic.
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Leftists that I think are smart and worth reading :
Noam Chomsky
Cosma Shalizi
Bertrand Russell
Micheal Polanyi
GDH Cole
PJ Proudhon
John M. Keynes
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Hayek vindicated. Politics attract the most wicked.
In one of the most surprising findings in the history of science, new research reveals that people who run for political office are more narcissistic than the average citizen.
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Weird fact : Julius Evola is probably the most right-wing thinker that ever walked the earth. That's the guy who criticized Nazis for not being elitist enough and being fundamentally a plebeian movement. Bronze age pervert is basically a low quality copy of him.
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