With BTC seemingly making a new resistance and ALTs starting to bounce, we may be seeing the next and final market rotation for this year. Read more about that here.

@shawnlgrubb No. I’d have to make one.

Here’s a refresher on this metric.

@Baez7Ivan 70% at a minimum

Need a bit more detail than that? Check out my report here.

Deep down, I know that market analysis is largely opinion. Regardless of the objective metrics I can look at, how I choose to interpret what most of it means concerning the future is not. Show a chart to 5 people, and you’ll get 15 different perspectives. The other day on substack, this was my commentary on technical analysis… It’s not black and white; there’s no universal truth or one “right way.” There’s no “good” or “bad,” so stop using those words. Instead, trading success comes from recognizing the grey areas and determining what’s “better” or “worse” comparatively. I’m not shy about putting my thoughts out there (obviously, you are here reading them). There are many like me. Some I even engage with. Debate and differences of opinion make the market move in the first place. I like to think I have a few healthy rivalries, though I’m reasonably certain it’s all in my mind. I can’t imagine my thoughts and analysis are popping up wherever, and someone is like, ‘UGH, this guy again…” Also, the notion of having a TA nemesis flies in the face of the fact that there’s no “right or wrong way” to go about it. Regardless, what ticks me off the most and causes me to engage in spirited TA battles is an opinion/analysis based on personifying the market, not recognizing “in-time” arguments, and applying rationality to an irrational entity. There are several statements I could touch on, but I’ll pick one from each pet peeve. As you listen to other analytical commentaries out in the world, you can probably pick up on them if you pay attention. The market is not a person. While price action is a reflection of the actions and expectations of people, it is not a person. It has no hopes, no wants, no requirements. Writing this paragraph is tough because I often use this comparison as a narrative element. You can browse my analysis and find statements like, “I have trailing stops in place, and I’m letting the market go as high as it wants.” I shouldn’t use language like that because projecting human traits onto something that doesn’t have them triggers our brain to care in ways we shouldn’t as traders, inducing cognitive biases and emotional decision-making. Typically, I can draw the line here in my commentary, as failure to do so leads to my next annoying itch. The market is not static. The state of the market is, as they say, like the New England weather, “wait five minutes, and it will change.” Many poorer analytical takes fail to consider this and won’t update their opinions based on new data. In continuing the personification theme, they say things like, “The market is strong, this is a healthy pullback…” The commentary is fed by the feelings toward wanting this personified market to live. Biases seep in, and the analyst will look for the things that assuage fears that the market could do anything other than bounce back. The market will be “strong,” and the pullback will be “healthy” until it’s not, and by that point, it’s too late. Sometimes, I want to pull my hair out because the analyst fails to acknowledge the primary underlying force distorting their perception. The market is not rational. Now entrenched in an opinion, the analyst must rationalize that stance, saying, “Yes, this retracement is deeper than I expected, but it’s still ok. The market needs to cool down anyways; it was running very hard.” The market doesn’t get tired. It can be “overbought” or “oversold” forever (those are also not useful words, by the way). The market is the mob mentality. It can be psychotic, self-sabotaging, short-sighted, and irrational. It’s everyone’s self-interests all at once. The market does what it does as different people with different ideas do what they do and exert their influence as they can. If, at one point in time, most people act in a way to drive price in one direction, that’s how it goes until it doesn’t. Expecting it to “behave” rationally is pointless when money is on the line. The market itself is the ultimate abstraction. It doesn’t think or feel. It doesn’t rest, rationalize, or decide what it “needs.” Yet we, as traders, often do the mental gymnastics of assigning it those attributes. Why? Because patterns, analogies, and personifications make complex systems feel manageable. But these tendencies are also pitfalls. The market isn’t your friend, foe, or even a bystander with opinions. It reflects millions of decisions made in real-time, each influenced by its own logic or emotion. Recognizing this truth is liberating. It removes personal attachments and reminds us that the market is like a game, and our job is to navigate it with clarity, discipline, and an acceptance of its inherent chaos. So here’s the takeaway: The more you treat the market like what it is—a complex, irrational system—the better you’ll become at adapting, surviving, and thriving within it. The goal is never to “beat” the market but to play it well, aware of its quirks and your own. Recognizing this balance is where growth—and, ultimately, success—resides.

@TheBTCKingpin I don’t disagree

As always though, this is just one piece of the complex puzzle that is cryptocurrency market analysis. Follow me to see more pieces put together.

For reference: See if your favorite crypto analyst is represented here.