Steven McClurg
@stevenmcclurg
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Following
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119
Statuses
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Disclosures: ) #nostr #npub1nvxnc8egjlhpqtzrxmav3yk8frf3p7y9wujgwrcgwep2xr77xrvsa0paqn
Nashville, TN
Joined May 2009
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For decades Warren Buffet has pushed Coca-Cola, the sugary/corn syrupy drink that has led to mass obesity, diabetes, cancer and Alzheimer’s globally.
Let’s define disgusting...
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Hey
@stacyherbert
Bringing more 12 year olds to the
#Bitcoin
conference for you.
Gotta start them early
#Bitcoin2022
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Dear Twitter bitcoin ETF experts,
Can you please give me a timeline of when this ETF is going to get approved so we can be prepared to launch?
Also would like an explanation of all the various filings, just to make sure we did it right.
Thank you!
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75 bps is no news.
Powell speech matters more.
Key words: “Labor market out of balance; high demand for workers”.
Unemployment will have to reach 6% or inflation steady at 2% before a shift occurs to policy.
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The Fed was too aggressive in 2020, caused massive inflation, failed to recognize inflation in 2021, and kept monetary policy loose for too long.
Now will tighten too much and fail to stop before completely tanking the global economy.
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Bitcoin ETF royalty.
Queen Eleanor and King James.
They were the fact-checkers, educators, and public correctors of bad takes.
Thank you for your work on BTC ETFs.
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There is a lot of speculation on who the big winner is for the bitcoin spot ETF race.
The answer is simple:
Coinbase
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Investors buy stocks because they expect prices to move higher. The P/E ratio of the S&P has to move to 20x in a year to produce at least a 10% annual ROI. This with unemployment at 22% and rising.....Most overvalued market I have seen
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Unpopular view, but I don’t disagree with Gensler.
Bitcoin belongs in private wallets using private keys. Not in financial products where rent seekers charge 2-4% to “manage” it for you or on exchanges for you to lend out for yield, possibly through rehypothecation.
2)
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I've seen a lot of JPM comments in the last hour, but the way I see it is Larry Fink just Orange-pilled Jaime Dimon.
Bitcoin Bull Market
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The number of times I have heard "this time is different" or When the Covid lockdown ends" in the last month...we are entering the Fear stage (some just do not realize it yet)
This chart reminds me of something I have seen in the past... just can’t put my finger on it... wait, I remember now... brb
#NoNewParadigms
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The
@NEMofficial
core devs are doing some awesome things on enterprise protocol. Can’t wait to see how
#Symbol
turns out.
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@LeahWald
and I just wrapped up our macro analysis on a coming food availability crisis. Theme was spurred by conversations and observations shared by
@stacyherbert
- looking forward to discussing more on
@KeiserReport
this week.
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Signal
@supplyshocks
@mikebelshe
@marcusoar
@monetaryreset
In previous bull markets they'd start emailing people asking if they would consider selling early coins. Good luck with that 🤣
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Imagine the service you will get from banks now that the government will infinitely bail them out like they do with the airlines...
The last 4 times I have flown
@AmericanAir
we have been delayed, missed a connection, slept at an airport hotel.
This time we will miss our connection and they’re trying to rebook us… two days later.
Train wreck every time, such a trash airline.
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Federal Reserve Policy is Flawed: Favors the Very Wealthy
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I saw a headline “how best to use your stimulus check”; but I didn’t read the article. Don’t need to.
Just buy
#bitcoin
With every new “stimulus” bill passed, cash is worth less.
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I worked for Scott during the last recession. He was one of the few people who saw it coming and was prepared well ahead of it. There was very little he got wrong then, and I doubt there is little he gets wrong this time.
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Please, no bitcoin raps nor dances this bull cycle.
Thank you in advance
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If you don’t know where the yield comes from, you are the yield
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Next CPI print: 8% for February
March will be worse.
Real inflation closer to 20%
Buckle up
#Bitcoin
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I can’t believe I got to meet CJ Wilson
@str8edgeracer
in real life at the
@TheBitcoinConf
!!
Dreams can come true.
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Thank you
@maxkeiser
and
@stacyherbert
for having me on
#KeiserReport
to discuss Global Food Supply Chain disruptions and the bond market. It is always a pleasure catching up.
@KeiserReport
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Probably a popular opinion already, but
@dickerson_des
might be the coolest person in
#Bitcoin
Also my 12 year loved meeting her, so she has street cred with the next generation of bitcoiners, too
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I don’t see a Fed pivot in 2023. This includes no increased size of balance sheet nor lowering rates.
BTW, raising rates at a lower rate is not a pivot, nor is pausing rate increases.
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Pay close attention here. This rally is a Bull Trap initiated by short covering then short squeeze.
We are at the bottom, but more leverage needs to be flushed out before we have a real rally.
DON'T FORGET--illiquid markets are easier for manipulators to manipulate than liquid markets. No clue if this rally is sustainable but be careful--lots of leverage still to be liquidated (based on publicly available info) & many people have incentives to pump prices short-term.🚧
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Due to inflation, lentil has become unaffordable.
Bark is the new lentil.
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@stacyherbert
has been raising the alarm on this for weeks. The bigger issue is Emerging Market countries, where food cost is 30-50% of disposable income
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At
@ValkyrieFunds
we hold
#Bitcoin
on our balance sheet
One good reason is when banks close wires at the end of the day, we can still transact
We did that today
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The Fed is enabling modern-day Robber-Barons.
Warren Buffet does not need to raise debt capital to survive. Nor does the Fed need to buy Berkshire Bonds to save the economy, but they are buying anyway.
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Too many great partners, friends, colleagues, and even a long time mentor in this picture to name. Grateful that they joined us for this day.
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I found the best burger in NYC.
@PubKey_NYC
No frills, super tasty; could crush 3-4 of these smashburgers....
Yes, I took a bite before I posted
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Dear Genesis debt holders:
Don’t take anything less than 100% of what is owed to you.
And don’t settle for the old “we are all separate companies over here at DCG, Genesis, Greyscale”.
That has SBF vibes “I haven’t been involved in Alameda for years…”
DM me if you hold debt
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Normally I would say that an inverse bitcoin ETF marks a bitcoin bottom.
Indeed, several technical and fundamental factors also point to bottom area.
Unfortunately, we are not at the bottom for macro markets. Bitcoin likely outperforms relative to other markets from here though
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@jespow
Rather than complaining about
@UberEats
ceasing delivery services to the area, maybe
@MattHaneySF
should start delivering food there at a net loss.
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Most of the US oil reserves are now stored on Native American Land. Could be an interesting transfer of wealth.......
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A lot of people think the market is like Feb 2009: V’ing up into a wall of cash. I think the market looks more like 1929 and 1931, with indices recovering into “bull territory” again. You can google to see what happens next.
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I am deeply saddened by the passing of my longtime mentor and friend Scott Minerd.
He hired me for my first asset management job, and we trained together for 15 years.
He taught me capital markets, importance of leg day, and most importantly, charity.
I will miss you, brother.
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'Unintended' consequences of another 75 bps rate hike in July: double digit corporate debt defaults, pushing S&P to 2,700.
Many companies are already scrambling to refinance their current debt, but no takers due to lack of ability to make debt service at new yields.
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Bitcoin has more room to run short-term.
Significant room long-term.
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The most shocking thing about this UBS/CS situation is the number of Swiss Bank experts on Twitter
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FTX not a “crypto” problem anymore than Madoff was a “hedge fund” problem. Both Ponzi schemes run by thieves.
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Unemployment: Out of 330mm Americans, roughly 50% considered the workforce. 17mm (11%) have claimed unemployment, reflected in yesterday's numbers. This is a lagging indicator. SMB payroll companies are indicating 40% unemployment..We are likely already at 18% unemployment.
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If you think oil prices are low now, just wait for it, they could go lower. Oil producers are now willing to pay pipelines and freighters more to take their oil than price paid by end buyer. This means we will see negative oil prices in some cases
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Just to be clear, Valkyrie had no exposure to Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager, 3AC, Alameda, FTX, Gemini Earn (we pulled funds out before they locked up), Genesis, and now…BitsLotto
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I wasn’t speeding, officer, the vehicle I was in had simply achieved a rate of velocity slightly greater than that which is posted on the sign.
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This was a fun one! Bitcoin and Macro Mastermind with
@JoeCarlasare
@stevenmcclurg
&
@VailshireCap
.
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I've been saying to avoid Binance, and the BNB token for years.
Jim Cramer today: "They proved collateral, not reserves, but CZ looks like a good guy. I’m bullish here, loading up on their tokens. Way oversold!”
This was your final warning to sell...
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We haven’t seen the 2020 crash yet, only a mild warning over the last month
The 2008 financial crash will look like a walk in the park ...
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The “Inflation Reduction Act” is a spending bill that actually increases inflation.
Maybe we should pass a law that says you can’t name a bill the opposite of what it does. That would be progress.
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Bank of England voted to raise rates. The battle to stop inflation has begun. So has the early stages of a global economic meltdown.
Find the exits, and look for safe havens.
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Bitcoin up on speculation that the Fed will turn dovish again, after today’s inflation remarks.
Reality is wage growth and government spending will continue to contribute to higher inflation.
Don’t expect that pivot from the Fed soon…
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Still here. Nothing has changed. S&P overvalued, and corporate defaults around the corner, as well as 12%+ unemployment; all to reveal itself between now and Q1 earnings reports.
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During restoration, I had to explain to my kids why old cars have ashtrays, that people used to smoke cigarettes in their cars.
I then had to explain that the "science" at the time said smoking was good for you and the government passed laws protecting cigarette companies.
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I'm honored to join
@TheBitcoinConf
in Miami next week
Announcing Steven McClurg as a
#Bitcoin
2023 speaker!
Steven is the CIO of and Co-Founder of
@valkyriefunds
, a leading financial services firm offering
#Bitcoin
products at the intersection of traditional finance and digital assets.
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@Mashinsky
@CoinDesk
@GenesisTrading
@CelsiusNetwork
I believe
@Mashinsky
1) I agree with Prime trust statement due to personal experience
2) I dug into Celsius business model with Alex and agree, no rehypothecation. Some others do that though...
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Not opening GBTC up for redemptions while sitting on a 40% discount "not fair".
Lending money to the likes of 3AC to buy GBTC with intention of selling at a premium to retail investors who got stuck also "not fair"
NEWS: Grayscale warns the SEC that approving the latest wave of proposed bitcoin ETFs before its own would be unfair
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Long, but good read
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Gas prices, for cars and for Ethereum, are unsustainable.
If only there were a fixed-supply asset you could hodl that fixes this...
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I don't care what chain it is on, or what you call it: NFT, Ordinal, etc.
1) I can right-click copy and own it
2) It is a pump and dump scheme
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Conventional wisdom: markets go down with yield curve inverts
Capital markets: but risk markets typically go higher as Fed raises rates
Reality: inflation is so high, there is little disposable income to invest in markets to send them higher.
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Bull Market Reminder:
Don't park your coins with vegans in the Bahamas who have celebrity endorsements.
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Yes, it is the best way to buy gold.
Costco's return policy is amazing.
When gold price drops due to bitcoin adoption, you can simply return it for the price you paid.
You're welcome!
Whenever Costco puts 1-ounce gold bars for sale on its website they sell out quickly. But is it the best way to buy the metal?
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Always a pleasure joining Preston
On
#BitcoinFundamentals
,
@PrestonPysh
and
@stevenmcclurg
discuss the recent bankruptcies and the overall impact on the broader economy and Bitcoin onramps.
Watch:
Listen:
Transcript:
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This is amazing!
In the same article, SBF both states that he hasn’t run Alameda for years and wasn’t involved, yet recreates their balance sheet over several time periods from memory…
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All risk markets up on Fed’s “tough talk” on inflation, but lack of actual tough action.
Market thinks the Fed will declare victory on the first inflation print lower than 9% YoY. There is not enough political resolve to tank markets ahead of mid-terms.
All negative news.
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The Swiss Franc (and similarly Swiss Banks) have been a safe haven asset and store of value.
#Bitcoin
has surpassed the franc not only in market cap, but in usability, security, and trust.
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We want to free the
#bitcoin
Interesting
Proposal from Valkyrie to take over management of $GBTC
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Fed raises rates and attempting to reduce balance sheet.
- Real estate will continue to be hot as inflation still rising, and expectation of higher rates drive mortgage applications
-
#Bitcoin
and commodities like oil will continue up; driven by low supply, high inflation, rates
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@BitcoinMagazine
I hate you Bitcoin Magazine; and so will everyone who sees me wearing these sweet crocs.
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Bonds at 1.54% getting people excited that there is yield again.
After 5.3% inflation rate, your real yield is -3.76%
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If HSBC doesn’t want to work with bitcoin, don’t work with HSBC. Time to move on.
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The Reddit army is turning their attention away from shorted equities and on to crypto.
Problem is, not enough available float of
#Bitcoin
to supply the demand.
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You heard it from Cramer.
Buckle up, looks like bitcoin goes straight up from here
Checking in with Larry Williams. Major top in Bitcoin... MAJOR
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Two of my favorite bitcoiners, and awesome humans,
@samcallah
and
@PeterMcCormack
-
Must listen.
WBD771 - Bitcoin’s CBDC Shadow with
@samcallah
. We discuss:
- The Bank for International Settlement
- Impacts of a global CBDC
-
#Bitcoin
, CBDCs, & currency competition
- Fiat, inflation, & hyperbitcoinisation
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Thank you
@PeterMcCormack
for having me, and thank you
@BitcoinMagazine
for hosting us in your Nashville office.
This might be the most depressing conversation you will hear on the show regarding
#inflation
WBD410 - Inflation & the Role of
#Bitcoin
with
@StevenMcClurg
. We discuss:
- CPI & real inflation
- Bonds
- Evergrande & the Chinese markets
- CBDCs
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Big congratulations to
@JanvanEck3
and
@gaborgurbacs
on the bitcoin futures ETF by
@vaneck_us
You are both fantastic humans, and we at
@ValkyrieFunds
look forward to growing a bigger pie with you.
To your future success...
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If you are a rent seeker (like I am) and charge clients to hold, trade, invest in digital assets, then proper disclosures and representations need to be made.
3)
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Spent the afternoon
@bitcoinpark_
doing bitcoin things.
Discussing lighting wallets, setting up hardware wallets,
#nostr
@ODELL
pontificating with me on future of the above. Always a pleasure sir.
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