Steno Research
@stenodata
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Your source for actionable and independent macro economic and geopolitical research. Check our websites for insights, model portfolio, trade alerts and more!
Joined June 2023
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Pinned Tweet
Steno Research Explainer: How the world got dependent on American chips.
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Jay Powell invited for a massive risk asset party after the Fed opened the door for several cuts in 2024. Will the Fed suddenly prove to be the most dovish of the big central banks anyway? Join us and
@RaoulGMI
for a deeper discussion
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STRONG data seasonality in US key figures until New Years. Will the ISM reports, non-farm-payroll and inflation surprise to the UPSIDE leaving the Fed outlook at a tightrope again? Full analysis in comments.
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FREE ARTICLE!
We have a free article up with a thought provoking arguement about current state of OPEC and global crude market.
Read along in the link below!
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You should consider buying your Christmas presents now
Free article on the global shipping troubles along with an outlook on what to expect going forward by
@ulriksimmelholt
!
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USD liquidity -> sideways to UP
EUR liquidity -> DOWN
Guess what inflation spreads will do from here, folks?
Fed/ECB/BoJ/PBoC watch ->
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1) The path to 2% inflation is tricky or almost impossible for the next 6 months. CPI needs to average 0% MoM, but is that feasible?
2) The cyclical price momentum has started to re-emerge before the lagging shelter category fully started to disinflation
Full article here ⬇️
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We were EARLY to the China Rally and chose to design the exposure via proxies to limit the risk of getting wrongfooted by empty promises
Well in the money!
Read here how we look at the latest events in China & much more in our latest EM! --->
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We host the great
@WarrenPies
in the newest episode of Macro Sunday with
@AndreasSteno
Apple Pod:
YouTube:
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Our cryptocurrency portfolio, not even launched two weeks ago, is off to a flying start. We're up by about 8.59% versus US dollar and 0.5% versus Bitcoin.
Visit the crypto portfolio at: .
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We host the great Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to a deep dive into the outlook for US Treasuries. What does the new House speaker and upcoming appropriations talks mean for markets and treasuries and how will the US fund yet another war?
@AndreasSteno
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22
Many anticipate the Bitcoin halving, but Ethereum's 'triple halving' is overlooked. We foresee Ethereum becoming a broadly used digital commodity with scarce supply and dividend potential, marking its uniqueness beyond the crypto world.
Full note ->
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Commodities are breaking out of ranges and it typically triggers a self-reinforcing loop! See illustration here! For FREE nuggets on macro and finance, sign up here ->
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The projected US budget deficit for 2024 has DOUBLED in a year...
Why should that trajectory change? US Treasury rates will be structurally higher as a consequence.
Our FULL analysis ->
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The market holds high hopes of a EUR PMI comeback Wednesday with all major countries exp. to see a comeback in both Services and Manufacturing.
Our chips are placed on a soft surprise out of GER and FR. Both in services and manufacturing.
Full take ->
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FREE ARTICLE by
@ulriksimmelholt
Inflation expectations are trading around 2.25-2.5 percent and yet there is a sentiment among the Average Joe that the cost of living is still high. It’s Vibeflation. So how to deal with this? Well, just cut rates!
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We have a special free macro nugget up on our site with a primer on the liquidity outlook for the rest of the year
Remember to subscribe to our free newsletter for more updates on all things macro and markets:
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@AndreasSteno
host the great Mike Green for a talk on the outlook for the strong-going US economy in comparison to Europe and Asia. We also cover the softer-than-expected CPI prints and the subsequent rally in equities and take a victory lap on our Germany trade.
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The Fed is insolvent. So is the ECB and all other major central banks. When will we all lose trust in them? Read
@AndreasSteno
analysis right here ->
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Our PMI indicators are starting to look VERY upbeat for 2024. Is a cyclical rebound on the cards? More here ->
You can also sign up to our FREE macro newsletter to receive a slide-deck on how to trade the cyclical rebound here ->
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Growth surprising everyone but the consensus of a slowdown certainly works against risk assets manic euphoria.
Will growth adjust or will prices?
Nowcasts are all betting on the economy cooling!
Read our latest Portfolio Watch here --->
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Did the European inflation progress just stall around 3% inflation?
It seems increasingly unlikely that we will get a material cutting cycle from the ECB as well. We basically dislike bonds across the globe currently. Read more in our Sunday editorial.
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Previous Bitcoin halvings have consistently boosted its price within a year. The current trends echo the second halving, hinting the imminent halving may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event.
Discover the reasons in our FREE note:
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History in the making! With three past Bitcoin halvings, each time leading to new all-time highs within 1.5 years, our eyes are on the upcoming fourth halving in April 2024. The same factors at play suggest a potential repeat performance 📈
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This essential crypto chart shows Bitcoin's nearly $2.5 billion in net inflows from exchange-traded products, including spot ETFs, last week.
Find the chart every Monday in 'Crypto Crisp', our new weekly series. The first edition is free: .
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From Stealth QE to Stealth QT?
Q1 = Material Stealth QE
Q2 = Material Stealth QT
More ->
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Breakevens remain fairly anchored but in the front things are happening..
How do we trade it?
See here:
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From QE to QT to now QB! Will the Fed continue with its liquidity tricks to prevent markets from going under? And what happens when the sugarcoating ON RRP facility is depleted? MUST watch developments in USD liquidity space. Read
@Andreassteno
full take on the situation here.
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#PositioningWatch
: Market insights for the new week!
TLT inflows signal a strong trend, but early investors under pressure.
Commodities vs US bonds: A compelling risk-reward perspective.
Equities sentiment wavering, smart money cautious.
FX positioning remains steady
Read more⬇️
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Egypt, which had been exporting LNG since 2019, is now set to return as a buyer and plans to make its largest purchase of LNG in years to avert an energy shortage.
Watch out for this to have a global effect on gas markets!
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The Port of Baltimore is very important for shipping in the US
10% of the tankers flow in/out of the US total is out of Baltimore (see chart)
It is the busiest U.S. port for car shipments, handling more than 750,000 vehicles in 2023..
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OPEC continuing its production cuts throughtout Q2 while PMIs rebounding sounds very bullish crude oil to us!
Find out more:
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In the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, being crypto-friendly is key for voters. Trump is aware of this, but Biden is not—yet. It might just be a matter of time before Biden shifts his stance on crypto and approves an Ethereum spot ETF.
👇
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50% of S&P GSCI basket is up YoY yet the basket is not positive. 2024 has been about picking the winners up until this point, which include crude, copper and both precoius metals.
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We trade in our crypto portfolio, adding a token with tremendous potential. The token generates substantial net income and stands to benefit significantly from increased Real-World Assets (RWA) activity.
Read the note in full:
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Why you shouldn't be a Bitcoin Maximalist! Check out
@MadsEberhardt
latest analysis right here and on :
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Is Beijing's bet on the 'national team'—state funds buying stocks— a smart money magnate or a risky move?
Read our latest EM here:
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NAT GAS MARKET IS ULTRASHORT
The Nat Gas market is now getting ultra-short again consistent with positioning seen during lockdowns and during the 2014/2015 energy sell-off.
More on energy trades ->
Free macro nuggets ->
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China's massive copper stockpiling is reshaping global markets and driving up prices! This strategic move is set to impact everything from EVs to solar panels.
Read our lates piece on emerging markets for more - see in comments
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We host the former Chief of the Energy unit at the US Embassy in Kiev and co-founder of the Eney LCC, Suriya Jayanti for a discussion of the malaise in offshore wind markets. Why is wind energy suffering and is China to blame?
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New month - New Macro Regime.
It is everything UP, UP, UP this month. How does this impact your portfolio?
Visit our site for more on how to trade the current macro situation.
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Crude oil above USD 80 was fun while it lasted. Our take on a wild week in crude oil here!
Link:
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@AndreasSteno
@EmilMoller10
Listen to this week's Macro Sunday on:
Apple Podcast:
Spotify:
Youtube:
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Retail and US institutional investors are now positioned similarly to global market participants in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the Coinbase Premium Index has returned to neutral territory.
More in this week's Crypto Crisp:
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Everything in the US economy is playing out according to expected lags Q1/Q2 will likely see a clear credit contraction. Chasing risk assets much higher here is not necessarily wise. Full analysis in comments
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EVERGRANDE UNDERGOING LIQUIDATION!
But what will it mean for markets going forward?
Read our FREE Nugget on it right here:
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Do we have an outright MELT UP in commodities ahead of us?
We tend to think so.
Our trading piece ->
For FREE nuggets, sign up here ->
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This price chart shows a crypto asset poised to monetarily reward its holders. For long-term survival, cryptocurrencies need to provide rewards, similar to equities, or risk being replaced by those that do.
More in today's Crypto Crisp: .
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The Saudi's are on the move!
How do we interpret the latest news out of the Kingdom this week & how do we trade it?
EM by EM
#41
: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear:
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Now could be the best time to add exposure to crypto. 📈We launch our research offering on the crypto market. Read our first piece right here ⬇️
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IS GERMAN REFLATION A HEAD FAKE?
Just as markets thought that Germany was rebounding including a sharp rotation in to European stocks in March, here goes German high frequent data on electricity...
Not good.. More in our Germany Watch ->
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Demand currently takes the front seat in the oil market, but are markets underestimating the significance of geopolitical risks? And how can investors protect themselves from these risks amidst global disinflation?
Read our latest take below!
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Will the energy price rally trigger the recession as consumer savings are depleted? We look at this week's EIA data, whether it can be trusted and how it all impacted the world of Macro and your portfolio.
Your host
@AndreasSteno
Subscribe for your
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All of the 2024 consensus trades are already toast
2024 consensus:
- USD to weaken
- Inflation would not reaccelarate
- Rates to drop a lot
Are we already back to square one?
More ->
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There is a high probability that Thursday's EUR inflation number will come in lower than the -0.2% MoM consensus due to seasonal price effects, which are more severe this year than in previous years due to the discounts given on Black Friday being larger than usual as a result of
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Container rates have peaked for now, but without progress in the Red Sea, there is a risk of a return of higher rates by the spring-time. The damage for US inflation has likely already been done
For more:
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The liquidity remains very weak in US Treasury markets. More volatility on the cards? Here is how we trade it. Our Portfolio Watch is out.
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Pemex just got downgraded adding extra flavour to the ongoing election in Mexico!
What will it mean for markets and for the Peso?
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Recent production decreases by the Saudis have led to export numbers converging and in terms of income the OPEC production cuts have allowed the Americans to steadily get around USD 350 million a day in export income at the expense of Saudi Arabian export income
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How are the flows in Bitcoin ETF's moving through January?
This and much more in this week's 5 Things We Watch:
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We have taken the unpopular decision to buy the wrecking-ball cocktail of the USD and Oil after a massive sell-off.
Read our reasoning and find our assessment of the risk/reward in various trades in our weekly portfolio watch!
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With beyond strong US econ. growth, the interplay of growth, inflation, and liquidity takes center stage. How will this robust expansion shape the inflation trajectory and inform structural asset allocation strategies?
Answers to that and more in this months SR Macro Regime
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The big three central banks all pushed slightly back against rate cut expectations, but what is the likely timing of the first cut?
We have taken a look here at the timing for the ECB, the Fed and the BoE.
Link ->
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This crypto bull market is the least speculative yet, primarily driven by Bitcoin spot ETFs, the expected Ethereum spot ETF, and institutional flow. Being aligned with these factors should yield positive results with lower risk.
Our detailed analysis:
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Is the all time widdow maker trade back? Natural gas is trading at 2020 lows, but there is no cheap lottery tickets. We need to see some action in spot markets before we see upward price pressures.
For more:
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Are rates beginning to hit levered firms?
Small caps are typically characterized by floating rates and higher leverage and judging by their interest burden it seems like interest rates are starting to be felt. Large caps' interest burden, shows signs of improvment.
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China keeps throwing liquidity toward manufacturers but capacity remains muted in comparison to American industry.
EM by EM
#39
: All roads out of China lead to goods disinflation
Full piece -->
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China is experiencing diminishing returns on additional leverage as insolvencies continue to rise. The question now is whether the leadership can successfully reverse the prevailing pessimism
Read our latest on China here --->
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The Bitcoin price appears to be little driven by retail euphoria and speculation, but rather by institutions making spot purchases and long-term holding rather than short-term trading. This is stressed by the ever-decreasing Bitcoin exchange reserve.
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Are credit spreads asleep at the wheel? Credit standards remain tight and yet credit spreads have moved nowhere. Is complacency sustainable? Our full credit watch below. ⬇️
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Ready for another round of increasing freight rates? It is not completely out of the picture given continued pressures in supply chain pressures and seasonality in trade patterns.
For more:
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... and here's how to trade it! As always, we follow up our interviews and analysis with actionable trade advice. Completely transparent and independent
@AndreasSteno
@EmilMoller10
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NO Red Sea Solution In Sight!
@RosenvoldGeo
with our latest take on how long it will take to solve the situation in the Red Sea!
More ->
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We cover OPEC's impacts vs non-OPEC countries and ask how far the Saudis are willing to go. Plus, who is the winner of a OPEC breakdown and what are the geopolitical impacts.
By
@ulriksimmelholt
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Just as we identified in last month's regime - and as our asset allocation model predicted -, risk assets have indeed performed. Question is if they will continue to. As always, we present our model framework on how to structure your portfolio.
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INFLATION IS NOT RETURNING TO 2% IN THE US
Inflation is likely to re-accelerate unless Powell turns around again.. See the link between financial conditions and inflation here
Full article ->
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Did the yield curve even invert in standardized terms? Was the recession signal always wrong? Find out more in our editorial here ->
For FREE macro nuggets, sign up here ->
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Guest: Joseph Wang aka.
@FedGuy12
Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies over the course of the year? And how about a potential operation
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NFP REPORT FULL OF "FAKE NEWS"?
The January report made for an extraordinary hawkish report on the surface, but it was full of data flaws
Bottomline:
Is the job growth re-accelerating? No
Is wage growth re-accelerating? No
Read more ->
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