Mads Eberhardt
@MadsEberhardt
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Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst at Steno Research. Prev. cryptocurrency analyst at Saxo Bank, trader at Bitcoin Suisse, and founder of BetterCoins.
Copenhagen, Denmark
Joined February 2014
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Extremely bullish: the Grayscale Ethereum Trust now trades at a premium.
But surely, "... there is no demand for the Ethereum ETFs?".
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The Ethereum ETF net outflow is yet to subside, but it is likely that it will happen this week. When it does, it's up only from there.
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This is insane 🤯
The Ethereum exchange reserve has declined by over 800,000 Ether year-to-date. In other words, Ether worth over $2.4 billion has left exchanges in under two months.
A bullish indicator a day keeps the doctor away.
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1)
@cz_binance
replies to this tweet. In my view, by this reply, he wants to stress that Binance did indeed have a $2bn inflow over the past 24 hours to demonstrate broad confidence in Binance.
$2B inflows in 24h on
@binance
after the FUD is insane. You can check the live stats here:
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Yesterday marked the trading session with the highest Bitcoin ETF net inflow ever, totaling $1.045 billion. BlackRock experienced an inflow of $849 million.
Absolutely insane.
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It has been four months since the fourth Bitcoin halving, and Bitcoin's price has dropped by 8% since then. In comparison, after the second and third halvings, it was up by 5.5% and 17.2% at the same point.
We may be behind "schedule," but in hindsight, it will be obvious.
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Let me reiterate why I am so bullish on crypto this second half of the year:
- Massive increase in USD liquidity.
- Likely the first interest cut by the U.S. FED.
- Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have a U.S. spot ETF, with the Bitcoin ETFs already shattering every record.
- Clear
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The surge in U.S. liquidity starts today.
As a matter of fact, we expect crypto to follow suit. Among other positive factors, there is simply no macroeconomic condition that benefits crypto more than increased liquidity.
Full note:
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Absolutely nuts.
With a net inflow of $887 million yesterday, the U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their second-best day yet.
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6) This seems weird. Either;
i) CZ is not aware of Binance's client holdings - and its course, so he sincerely thinks Binance's holdings increased by $2bn yesterday.
or
ii) He knows that it is not correct, but wants every bit of positive press coverage that he can possibly get.
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A friendly reminder that Solana now generates nearly $500,000 in fees daily, up from around $35,000 to $50,000 for much of the year.
A lot can be said about Solana, but this is still an impressive feat.
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Another one.
Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net inflow of nearly $500 million.
No one has a high enough Bitcoin price target if it continues like this.
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Imagine when the European Union's crypto regulatory framework, MiCA, is fully implemented later this year. Every large European bank will rush to set up a spot crypto trade desk within the next few years.
Why? Because they will then be legally allowed to do so.
I have shared
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It's still $100,000 per Bitcoin and $6,500 per Ether in the second half of the year. Mark my words.
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1) It is of no surprise to most that I started at
@stenodata
about six weeks ago, following my last day at Saxo Bank.
We are a small independent research boutique on macro, equities, geopolitical, emerging markets, and energy, led by
@AndreasSteno
.
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Last update from me today before I head home: The Ethereum ETFs have seen a total volume of nearly $500 million in two hours and 30 minutes.
A quick conclusion: Assuming most of the volume of Grayscale's primary ETF is outflow, while considering that most of the remaining
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Find me better bull porn than this. I'll wait.
The exchange balance of Bitcoin has decreased by 190,000 bitcoins year-to-date, while the exchange balance of Ethereum has decreased by over 2,000,000 ether. Both have decreased in recent weeks, although prices have not followed
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It was the second-best day yet for Bitcoin spot ETFs, which experienced $631 million in net inflow yesterday.
Of this, BlackRock's iShares accounted for $493 million.
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We're approaching the month of July.
For the past five years, it's been one of the best months for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Specifically, Bitcoin has averaged a return of 10.49%, while Ethereum has averaged 19.20% in July.
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I remember back at the end of 2019, everyone was hoping that the value locked in
#DeFi
protocols on
#ethereum
could reach $1bn by some time in 2020. It now stands at $55bn. The innovation in this industry amazes me every day - even though, it comes with risks.
Source:
@defipulse
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Last week, U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.829 billion.
However, keep in mind that some of this inflow may be attributed to basis trading. This strategy involves buying a crypto asset in the spot market or similar instruments like spot ETFs, and selling
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The U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced their worst day since they were listed nearly four months ago.
Yesterday's outflow amounts to $564 million.
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The German government has moved nearly half of its Bitcoin holdings to exchanges and market makers, with the bulk of the transfer, approximately 13,500 bitcoins, happening today.
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4) However, this was not due to a single large deposit, but rather reportedly due to updated addresses in the data tracker system of Defillama, as stated in this article by
@DLNewsInfo
: .
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Better late than never.
I just wrapped up my International Business bachelor's degree at Copenhagen Business School. It took me an extra six months, but I got there in the end. The conclusion was rather unceremonious yesterday, just receiving a grade that confirmed my 180 ECTS.
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Yesterday, Grayscale's outflow decreased to $210 million from $356.3 million the day before.
The net outflow from the Ethereum ETF was $98.3 million.
Slowly but surely.
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As promised, the Grayscale outflow subsided massively this week. The net inflow yesterday of $33.7 million was the first in five trading sessions.
The market is completely offside on Ethereum ETFs. We have opened a short-term trade in our Crypto Portfolio to capitalize on this.
The Ethereum ETF net outflow is yet to subside, but it is likely that it will happen this week. When it does, it's up only from there.
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Yesterday, three months to the day since the Bitcoin spot ETFs began trading, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF saw its smallest daily outflow yet, totaling $17.5 million.
This suggests that Grayscale may not have many more bitcoins left to sell.
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The Ethereum ETFs have experienced roughly one-third the trading volume compared to their Bitcoin counterparts. This pattern aligns with the relative inflows into BlackRock's and Fidelity's ETH ETFs compared to their Bitcoin ETFs.
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It seems very likely that the Ethereum spot ETFs will start trading on Tuesday next week.
Man, I look forward to sharing an 'Ethereum ETF Inflow' chart daily for a few months.
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Bitcoin spot ETFs Inflows and Outflows 😎
We have had the Bitcoin spot ETFs for 4 whole trading days now.
Grayscale is by far the largest ETF if that is any surprise with nearly $25 billion in assets. It has, however, experienced a total outflow of $1.6 billion since Thursday
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Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced about $477 million in net inflows, bringing the total to $1.94 billion for the week so far, from Monday through Thursday.
The strong net inflow yesterday occurred despite Grayscale experiencing outflows of $175 million.
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@pythianism
But, a significant portion of the outflow from Grayscale is being redirected as inflow into the other ETFs.
Therefore, once Grayscale's outflows cease, the overall inflow into the other ETFs will decrease substantially.
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We are three days away from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.
This year, the Ethereum supply has only increased by approximately 44,000 Ether. Meanwhile, 1.89 million Ether has been withdrawn from exchanges, 4.32 million Ether has been staked, and an additional 4.38 million Ether has
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Another one.
The Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $700 million in net inflow yesterday.
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The flow data is in for yesterday's trading debut of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.
The funds saw a net inflow of $106.77 million. This is a very decent debut, considering that the market liquidated nearly half a billion dollars worth of Ether in the primary Grayscale ETF. The
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On that note, Solana's stablecoin supply is still far from its 2022 high, whereas Ethereum's three largest rollups have seen tremendous growth in stablecoin supply, particularly since the Proto-Danksharding upgrade in March.
In essence, Solana's substantial revenue generation
This is still one of the most impressive charts out there.
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1) There is a broad consensus in the crypto industry that Bitcoin spot ETFs are coming.
We share that view.
In fact, we are extremely confident that we will see a spot ETF in early 2024.
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5) If correct, this means that the TUSD has been at Binance for a long time, but first updated yesterday, although CZ - in my opinion - tries to portray it as a $2bn inflow. It is not.
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"London Stock Exchange Will Start Market for Bitcoin and Ether ETNs May 28".
This is quite an interesting date because what is scheduled for four days prior to this, on the 23rd of May?
The SEC's decision on an Ethereum spot ETF. The US, please outpace the UK by introducing the
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This screams an ETF that is not priced in.
We only need to go back to April and March to see Ethereum reaching as high a price in dollars and against Bitcoin as it is now. In April, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust traded at discounts as high as 25%, indicating that the market did
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The Coinbase Premium Index has largely flipped back to showing a premium, after nearly two weeks of being at a discount.
This is another indication that a new status quo is about to be established, where ETF inflow exceeds outflow.
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The main issue with crypto market cycles is that the majority of participants fail to recognize the linear nature of technological development in crypto.
During periods of greed, market expectations for crypto's technological capabilities far exceed reality, while the opposite
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@pelledragsted
Hvor var du alle de år, hvor Mærsk havde underskud men fortsat betalte tonnageskat? Du bør om nogen udmærket være klar over, at det er et øjebliksbillede.
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The Bitcoin holding of funds, including trusts, ETFs, and ETPs, is increasing. They appear to be front-running the Bitcoin spot ETF in the US.
Imagine when the ETF starts trading.
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$0.002 - $0.003 per zkEVM Ethereum transaction to prove it (with up to a further 50x reduction in the next year) 🤯
This is absolutely next-level. zk technology is the future and
@0xPolygon
is at the forefront of it but the market largely seems to miss that.
Releasing the Type-1 upgrade to the zkEVM prover, the next generation of Polygon’s proving tech. It can generate proofs for any EVM chain—sidechain, optimistic rollup, even Ethereum itself.
When proving Ethereum mainnet blocks, avg per-transaction costs are $0.002 - $0.003.
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This is quite embarrassing for
@Cointelegraph
and everyone who shared it, including
@Pentosh1
(who now blocked me for stating the obvious).
Rule no. 1: Never trust anything in crypto unless there are substantial sources on it.
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Are you really worried about 88,270 bitcoins when:
- These are held by long-term investors, so only a small portion will likely be sold soon?
- The bitcoins will probably be distributed over several months?
- The market easily absorbed over 200,000 bitcoins in outflows from
The Mt. Gox estate has confirmed it will start distributing its remaining 141,686 bitcoins to creditors, primarily clients, beginning in July.
However, do not expect all of these bitcoins to be paid out within this year.
We estimate that 88,270.4 BTC will be distributed this
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$60,000 BTC/USD 🚀
The all-time high is close to $69,000. I would not be surprised if we surpass this before the end of March.
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3) According to
@DefiLlama
, Binance's net holdings of TrueUSD (TUSD) did in fact increase by over $2bn yesterday.
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On February 15, we estimated a 90% likelihood of Ethereum spot ETF approval this year.
On April 11, we lowered it to 60% due to the lack of interaction between the SEC and the issuers.
Today, we increase the likelihood of approval to 95% for this year.
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Oh dear, it will be crucial for Ethereum to demonstrate a strong net inflow next week to show that its massive Grayscale outflow was merely early to that of Bitcoin.
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In Q4, looking back at the current prices of 61,400 BTC/USD and 3,380 ETH/USD will seem like an absolute bargain. Why?
- Massive increase in liquidity.
- Both cryptocurrencies have a U.S. spot ETF.
- Clear regulatory framework with the European Union's MiCA.
- Steadily declining
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I can't remember ever being so optimistic about crypto's future. Not prices, but its future.
And I have spent every single day since I was 15 studying this market.
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We're primarily a macro boutique, heavily factoring that into our crypto coverage.
Currently, we're leaning towards a hard landing.
If that occurs, where does crypto stand?
Except for a brief technical recession during the pandemic, this would be crypto's first.
While prior
Financial conditions are 100 bps easier than a month ago
The Fed will have to regain control of the narrative in December or else inflation will never get to 2%
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BlackRock, previously completely uninvolved in crypto, filed out of the blue for a Bitcoin spot ETF in June 2023.
In November, they sought approval for an Ethereum spot ETF.
The Bitcoin ETF is set to trade this week.
Do you still doubt the approval of the Ethereum ETF, anon?
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There has been much discussion about the Ethereum spot ETF in recent weeks.
We stand by our prediction of a 90% likelihood of approval.
In three months from now, we will either:
1) Look like extreme amateurs,
or
2) be right, but nobody cares because "the approval was clear
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This is quite remarkable.
Bitcoin has surpassed Ethereum in transaction fees for the first time since mid-2020.
In a note from Saxo Bank earlier this year, I stated that Ordinals were the best thing to have happened to Bitcoin in years. I stand by that statement every second.
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1) To our surprise, the recent week's move in Bitcoin appears to be natural, as it is driven mostly by spot rather than highly leveraged futures.
In addition, it appears that there is little retail euphoria, making us believe that mostly institutions are accumulating.
A 🧵.
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Yesterday, Grayscale experienced an outflow exceeding $500 million.
Alongside this, BlackRock's iShares and Fidelity had a challenging day with less inflow than in the past few days.
Consequently, the total net inflow has now fallen below $1 billion in 8 days of trading.
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Not since the FTX collapse in November 2022 have traders with bitcoins moved in the past one to three months faced such substantial percentage losses as they do now, highlighting the intense fear in the market.
Back in September last year, when this Profit/Loss Margin approached
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The crypto market is on high alert 🫡
The general sentiment in the crypto market suggests that 2024 will be a memorable year upon the Bitcoin ETF, the halving, and interest rate cuts. This leaves little room for negative news outside the greatly positive consensus.
This was
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Take a moment to consider this chart. It’s quite impressive.
Less bitcoins and Ether to buy.
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The market is overly pessimistic about the Ethereum spot ETFs.
Instead of listening to these pessimists who, by the way, entirely failed to foresee the approval of the Ethereum ETF, we have consistently been on the right side of this year's crypto ETFs.
👀 We never wavered in
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BlackRock's and Fidelity's Ethereum ETFs have seen about one-third of their respective Bitcoin ETF inflows.
This has occurred despite overall less attention to the Ethereum ETFs, a less-than-optimal month to launch, full awareness by the market that Grayscale's Ethereum ETF must
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The market does not expect an Ethereum spot ETF next week.
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The Mt. Gox estate has confirmed it will start distributing its remaining 141,686 bitcoins to creditors, primarily clients, beginning in July.
However, do not expect all of these bitcoins to be paid out within this year.
We estimate that 88,270.4 BTC will be distributed this
1
6
22
If you are a resident of the European Union, like me, expect no trading in Tether in exactly 30 days from now, at which point the first part of MiCA goes into effect. Instead, you will probably use USDC going forward.
There is still a little hope that the EU and Tether will
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The German government sold 40,000 bitcoins in just five working days, almost as quickly as they abandoned nuclear power.
Germany exemplifies what’s wrong with Europe, especially the EU.
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7) I will let you decide which one you believe - and the potential implications of each. Either way; I am not impressed.
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What if Gary Gensler played us?
In December 2017, the Bitcoin price reached its all-time high at that point.
During the same month, the CME Group was permitted to offer Bitcoin futures, after which the Bitcoin bubble burst.
Christopher Giancarlo, the former chairman of the
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The Grayscale Ethereum ETF is drained much quicker than the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF was in January.
The sooner, the better.
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@delzennejc
No bank wants to be first, but none wants to be last either.
The most exciting year in all of crypto.
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Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.
On the macro unrest and equity sell-off, Ethereum has been hit the hardest. Jump Trading's crypto arm, Jump Crypto, appears to be rushing to liquidate its billion-dollar Ether position, even unstaking over $400 million worth of Ether. This has been ongoing for
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Congratulations to the owners of Ether worth over $15 billion, who gambled their assets with a single purpose: to earn an airdrop.
Now that the airdrop has arrived, I hope you will learn about the risks associated with EigenLayer. It is not worth risking your Ether for a mere 2%
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"Another one".
Yesterday's trading session saw another remarkable performance for Bitcoin spot ETFs, recording a net inflow of $673 million. Impressive.
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4
20
Three months have passed since the fourth Bitcoin halving.
So far, it resembles the second and third halvings with limited price appreciation.
About 100 days after these two previous halvings, the price began to rise, increasing by 280.7% and 540.2%, respectively, after a year.
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This is absolutely major.
This is the final nail in the coffin for all the "eThErEuM iS a SeCuRiTy" guys.
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The memecoin frenzy on Solana is greatly beneficial to the cryptocurrency.
In March, Solana achieved an all-time high in monthly transactional revenue, reaching $69 million.
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We're back.
Yesterday, we once again saw a strong inflow of about $418 million.
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Either I work very fast, or I gave myself a head start.
Nevertheless, here are 2,000+ words on the imminent Ethereum ETFs and what we think the future holds.
Keyword: Grayscale, as always.
Full note:
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Good morning from sunny Copenhagen.
This week, the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved.
No matter whether you like it or not.
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This is the least speculative crypto bull market 🤯
It's all about the Bitcoin ETF inflow, along with institutional flow.
By aligning with institutions, crypto investors stand to gain significantly without taking on too much risk.
More: .
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@MadsStrange_
Suverænt den bedste kampagne fra LA, som jeg kan huske. Det siger også meget, at SFU laver et så stort selvmål for at forsøge at skyde den ned 👀
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T-minus 2 hours 👀
We've got a two-hour countdown until the first Bitcoin ETFs hit the market, in addition to the ongoing pre-market activity.
This marks a significant day for Bitcoin and, more broadly, the entire crypto industry.
Having said that, our bet is still longing
0
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@pelledragsted
Må jeg så også være så fræk at foreslå lidt sommerlæsning til dig,
@pelledragsted
?
Læs op på hvordan kryptobeskatningen i Danmark har resulteret i ubetalelig gæld for tusindvis af danskere. F.eks. folkeskolelæren, Rune Christiansen, som tabte penge, men som nu skylder Skat 2,8
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After nearly 3 years at
@saxobank
, it is time for a new chapter in my career, so I am leaving the bank today.
I would like to thank the SaxoStrats team, including
@Steen_Jakobsen
and
@petergarnry
, for the opportunity. It says a lot about the bank and its culture to trust an at
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$3,160/ETH a week or two before the Ethereum spot ETFs launch is a joke. Take this trade any day of the week.
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We lose a goal because of a big toe and concede a goal because of a thumb.
Make love. Not VAR.
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The Grayscale Ethereum Trust will certainly trade at nearly no discount after today's session, following an 11.8% discount at yesterday's close.
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The US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $0 million yesterday.
... primarily because it was a US holiday.
I will return tomorrow.
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