Štefan Auer
@stefanauer_hku
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Professor of European Studies, School of Modern Languages and Cultures @HKuniversity, occasional bylines in @FT @Politico @prospect_uk @unherd Proud father of 4
Hong Kong
Joined February 2014
‘Auer’s study of ‘European disunion’ represents one of the most thorough & interesting revisionist critiques of the European project & its concomitant academic discipline,European Studies.’ Very thankful to Hanns W. Maull for an amazing review in Survival
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By not even acknowledging its very existence, the new US administration may well hasten the coming of European Disunion
@stefanauer_hku @vtchakarova @kajakallas In the AI speech, Vance acknowledged Macron, and Modi twice, but no EU official, or the EU as a whole.
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A couple of weeks ago I pointed out that if the U.S. abandons Ukraine, and the EU has no alternative scenario (which it doesn’t), the result would strengthen the Slovak PM Fico, who seems more sympathetic towards Putin’s Russia than Ukraine. And now it’s happening
@DominikZelinsky Problém je ale aj v tom, že samotný význam Západu sa radikálne mení. A ešte nevieme ako sa vykryštalizuje západný postoj voči Ukraine. Ak sa Spojené Štáty rozhodnú prenechať Ukrajinu Rusko, a ak toho následkom Ukraina prehrá, Fico vyhrá. Európa takému scenáru nevie zabrániť.
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@alemannoEU I agree. EUrope continues to offer a lot. But I struggle to think of a comparably dire situation over the last 30 years. US security umbrella was very much taken for granted. We are losing it just at a time when the largest country on earth will gain more territory by war. Crazy
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RT @stefanauer_hku: ‘Whether Europe’s post-heroical and postpolitical societies will prove capable of overcoming their limitations will imp…
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Yep, “Europe is drifting into irrelevance and turning into the geopolitical backyard of global affairs. The real game is elsewhere.” 👇
Geopolitical Realities You Won’t Like ‼️ The #DragonBear – the strategic coordination between China and Russia across all systemically relevant domains – will not break under Trump. Putin won’t abandon Xi, even if Trump offers him the best deal. Modi won’t break with Putin, regardless of U.S. incentives. The bilateral ties between Putin-Xi and even Xi-Modi remain stable and predictable, reinforced by the rising trade volume within BRICS+ and the deepening security agenda of the SCO. It is not the West that is in decline but Europe, which faces 10-15 years of structural and systemic crisis—from demographics and political leadership to industrial competitiveness, security, and defense. As expected, Trump is shifting U.S. strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific, where 2025 will see the most intense geopolitical tensions (Taiwan, South China Sea, and North-South Korea). His ambition is to secure a legacy as a peacemaker, aiming for ceasefires in Gaza and Ukraine. However, the DragonBear is preparing a geopolitical surprise that will brand him as a warmonger. From the Arctic to the Indo-Pacific, Trump will be forced to respond with shows of force and retaliatory measures. Europe is drifting into irrelevance and turning into the geopolitical backyard of global affairs. The real game is elsewhere.
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RT @stefanauer_hku: EUrope is facing a perfect storm at a time when its key member states are ungovernable (Germany, France), internally di…
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‘Whether Europe’s post-heroical and postpolitical societies will prove capable of overcoming their limitations will impact decisively not only on the future of Ukraine and Russia, but on the Western world as we know it.’ I wrote in my concluding remarks in 2022.
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@HansHuett ‘Whether Europe’s post-heroical and postpolitical societies will prove capable of overcoming their limitations will impact decisively not only on the future of Ukraine and Russia, but on the Western world as we know it.’ I wrote in my concluding remarks in 2022.
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@Dixie202021 @vtchakarova @kajakallas They have no respect for the EU. That’s a bigger problem for EUrope right now, I think.
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RT @stefanauer_hku: “rather than providing a model of supranational governance, Europe’s missionary zeal to forge an ever-closer union … ha…
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That’s not enough. You would have to include at least the UK and/or France.
It better! Hopefully Poland, Finland, Baltic nations can get the momentum going! 🤞 This is existential. We stand and fight like one together, or we may be toast sooner than we ever imagined,
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EUrope will either wake up, or is condemned to “play second fiddle to Russia from here on”, as Michael @TheMichaelEvery put it👇I don’t even know whether Europeans can wake up.
2025, day 44 Good morning from Asia. Some are worried about US CPI coming in hot, and a rate cut being pushed back to December; Meanwhile, President Trump demanded lower rates and said they would sit alongside higher tariffs; Defence Secretary Hegseth announced the U.S., while backing NATO, was pivoting to Asia and Europe was going to have to defend itself more - and spend 5% of GDP on it annually, not 2%; And that Ukraine won’t enter NATO or recover lost territory, and that no U.S. troops will be sent to the future no-man’s land to guard it, only Europeans - troops which will not be covered by NATO’s Article 5; And that Europe will pay to rebuild Ukraine, while the U.S. gets rare earth and mineral rights for any further aid to it; President Trump started ceasefire talks and a possible rapprochement with President Putin: as @vtchakarova notes, imagine if he goes to Moscow for the 80th anniversary of Russia’s WW2 victory; This leaves Europe playing second idle to the U.S., with a **STAGGERING** bill to stop LARPing and start rearming, as Russia will continue to do so under its war political economy (latest spend was seen as $462bn on a PPP basis)….; Or the choice to play second fiddle to Russia from here on, at even vaster cost to it; In the Middle East, Israel is reportedly considering strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites days ahead of a deadline to restart war with Hamas; and We might still get U.S. reciprocal tariffs at any moment. So, yes, “it’s all about CPI.”
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Delusional. I wrote about EU expectations / capabilities gap more than two years ago, but I didn’t expect the EU quasi foreign minister to be so removed from reality.
Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity are unconditional. Our priority must now be strengthening Ukraine and providing robust security guarantees. In any negotiation, Europe must have a central role. Our Weimar+ statement ↓
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@HalDave0916 @RoryStewartUK For a credible deterrent you need a credible leader. Macron isn’t one.
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