Jordan
@sports_by_stats
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Football (soccer) and NBA | Lots of stats threads | Premier League @ChelseaFC | NWSL @WashSpirit | NBA @Cavs | cohost @BalancedBluePod
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Pinned Tweet
This is a 🧵about Enzo Maresca and what to expect from him tactically at Chelsea.
I am not going to talk about the process to hire him nor if it was the right decision.
1. Broad overview
2. Build-up tactics
3. Attacking and rest defense
4. Pressing and defense.
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As a kid, I needed major foot surgery. My mom set up this meeting between and me and a high school LeBron James. Pregame, we spent 20 minutes talking. As a thank you, we bought him a book and he got teary saying that nobody ever brings him things and they just expect him to give.
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To use American sports terminology, Chelsea basically traded Conor Gallagher on the last year of his contract for Joao Felix and €6m.
🚨🔴⚪️ Understand Conor Gallagher has been authorized by Chelsea to travel to Madrid in next 24/48h!
Deal was already done for €42m fee and Simeone was pushing again for it.
All done between Gallagher and Atléti, all done between Atléti and Chelsea.
Here we go, confirmed. 🔐
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@footyadvocate
As someone with a physical disability, I’ve found LeBron’s advocacy on the issue when of having shoes that are easy to put on for disabled kids to be inspiring. People say that’s just for PR points, but knowing what he did for me, I think he’s doing it bc he’s a good dude.
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The Jorginho-Kanté double pivot in the 2021 Champions League winning season was one of the most controlling midfield pivots this decade. Jorginho’s ability to control tempo with the ball, Kanté’s ball progression, and their ability to defend well as combo was incredible.
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A quick stats 🧵on how Graham Potter will change Chelsea's build-up, chance creation, and pressing structure based on what he did at Brighton. All data from
@OptaAnalyst
based on 2022-23 season.
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Silva yelling at Colwill so so ironic given that the Watkins goal was solely because Silva’s lack of positional discipline and terrible recovery pace.
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I think Chelsea have 4 “must starts” in important matches: Rüdiger, Silva, Kovacic, and Ziyech.
Reece, Chilwell, and Azpi when healthy are close. One of Kanté of Jorginho depending on the opponent.
Lukaku, CHO, Havertz, Pulisic, AC, Sarr, Alonso, etc. are tactical choices.
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FYI: Nizaar’s article said Real Madrid are frustrated because Rüdiger wants to work the contract out with Chelsea. He wants to be here.
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Some thoughts on Pochettino as Chelsea’s manager. This 🧵 will deal with his attacking and pressing structure as well as some positives and negatives.
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A short stats-based 🧵on what Rafael Leão means for Chelsea's attack:
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Enzo is Chelsea’s biggest problem right now and it has shown for a calendar year. Insanely risky passes that aren’t actually to create chances. Terrible positioning. Palmer is dropping deep because Enzo can’t progress.
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A stats🧵on what Raheem Sterling brings to Chelsea using. All stats based on the 2021-22 Premier League.
Overall, I am very excited about his attacking involvement, off-ball movement, ball carrying, and pressing.
I do have two small concerns, tho, but more on that later.
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I’m making an Enzo thread. Clearly he’s an immense talent with one of the best passing ranges in the world, but I also think that there is reason to be concerned. Namely: he struggles to deal with pressure, gets dispossessed a lot, and is a terrible defender.
A stats 🧵
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Reece James put on the best Chelsea performance since the start of the preseason. A stats 🧵
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The reality is that Enzo, Mudryk, and Caicedo were insane overpays. It’ll be down to Maresca to either coach them to be better or bench them despite the board’s anger.
It’s why 7 year deals for unproven talents is risky.
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Jesus has really improved his shooting this year. .15 goals/shot, 38.9% shots on target, and an average shot distance of 13.3.
He’s also one of the best tackling attackers in the world.
He’s a good fit for Tuchel. Though, his profile is not terribly dissimilar to Pulisic.
Arsenal's £42.5m offer for Gabriel Jesus has been rejected by Man City, and the striker is supposedly not interested in a switch to the Gunners after they failed to qualify for the Champions League this season.
{Dailymail}
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Dembélé, when healthy, is one of the most creative wingers on the planet.
I do wonder what this means for certain attackers. I.e., I think this means Ziyech will be transfer listed, but players that make late runs from wide into the box may have a lifeline.
Ousmane Dembélé is reportedly ‘closing in’ on a transfer to Chelsea…
He could become the first signing of the Todd Boehly era. 🌟
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@siphillipssport
has been saying there is a major mystery bidder for weeks, btw. Everyone should subscribe.
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This Chelsea squad is not the same squad that won the Champions League.
1. Our two best defenders in that match left on frees.
2. Jorginho and Kanté are two years older.
3. The depth in that squad is gone (Alonso, Zouma, Emerson, Tammy, Giroud, Timo, and CHO).
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People that say Maresca abandoned his principles to play counterattack never watched Leicester last year and instead are just complaining.
Your team is going to have loads of possession when it’s the best in the league. Leicester still played this high tempo positional play.
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Kepa also has:
-the second highest post-shot xG-goals allowed. This means, outside of Alisson, Kepa over-performs the xG his team allows more than any other keeper in the Prem.
-the second highest defensive actions outside of the penalty area in the Prem behind Nick Pope.
Kepa Arrizabalaga has the best save percentage in the Premier League this season (2+ appearances):
◎ 7 games
◉ 83.9% save percentage
◎ 26 saves made
◎ 5 goals conceded
◎ 4 clean sheets
Graham Potter's No.1.
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I’m making a giant assumption that Kimpembe is the last CB we’ll be linked to for me to analyze. So here’s a 🧵 comparing his style of play with Rüdi, Azpi, AC, Koulibaly, and Aké.
Updating this with the Koulibaly comparison. Again, this 🧵is about style of play and not if KK is better than Rüdiger.
TLDR - Koulibaly is similar in defense, but less prolific in attack and build-up.
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Post-shot xG-Goals:
Kepa - +.82 (98th %tile)
Mendy - -.15 (43rd %tile)
Average distance of defensive actions:
Kepa - 20.7 yards (98th %tile)
Mendy - 13.2 yards (34th %tile)
Set piece goals against:
Kepa - 0
Mendy - 3
@_Komandante_
Because he is more susceptible to conceding goals than other GKs
Because he can't command his box or dominate in the air
Because he can't distribute the ball properly
Because his decision making is horrific
Because he's as tall as I am (a midget by GK standards) with tiny arms
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Mount has completed 44/46 passes, is 3/4 on long balls, won 4/7 duels, has one key pass, but lost possession 7 times.
He isn’t the main problem. He hasn’t been great, but our issue is a broader. We’re slow in build-up and look for the best chance, but w/out the right players.
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I lean Amorim.
Amorim will need to adjust, especially when it comes to his rest defense and rest attack, but there are some real promising features of his Sporting side.
A tactics/stats 🧵
Who would you now prefer if it's between 2 of them?
I know who I would...
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Two years ago today I went to Chelsea vs Leicester at the Bridge. It’s why I became a Chelsea fan. Magical atmosphere.
Becoming a fan and joining bits of “Chelsea Twitter” really helped me get through the last year. Thanks, everybody!
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It is important to start by saying that Potter's Brighton and Tuchel's Chelsea are fairly similar. They both build from the back, press a lot, and commit player forwards. See the chart below (explanation in next tweets).
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Time for a very long stats 🧵 on Cucurella. In short, he’s my favorite player we’ve been linked to but not yet signed outside of Gvardiol and Dembélé.
Chilwell is a traditional attacking fullback. He's very good at what he does and will play a lot of minutes this year, with or without Cucurella.
But Cucurella is tends to sit in the deep halfspace, break up play, and deliver beautiful early crosses.
Stats 🧵later tonight.
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I keep seeing that Trev is better than Disasi and, frankly, the numbers don’t bear that out. A quick 🧵
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In essence, part of the attraction to Potter is that his teams are a bit quicker, but also that he gets the most out of his wide players. Chelsea's best players are three of their wingbacks (Reece, Chilwell, and Cucurella). Potter is here to exploit Chelsea's talent.
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Read. The. Article.
It does not say “expulsion from the Premier League. It says:
“Should the panel find Chelsea guilty, it has the power to impose financial or sporting punishments, such as a points deduction.”
Nonsense fearmongering.
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In short, I think Chelsea will look similar in attack, but with a few noticeable differences.
1) More responsibility on wingbacks
2) A bit more direct and willingness to dribble
3) More through balls and direct play once in the box.
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I know people won’t listen bc of how much BCT trolls, but this is a concerning point.
No team overperforms xG over the course of a season by the degree that Chelsea are under Potter. Signs are promising, but upping number of chances and quality is still important.
Aubameyang scored a goal off 0.12 xG against Crystal Palace. His first goal in the UCL came from 0.4 xG in game 1. Both come from isolated chances that were expertly converted.
Expecting this level of outperformance in the long run from him is pure and unadulterated naïveté.
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@TomChelseaOG
Go back and watch the second leg of that Madrid round. Jorginho and Kanté absolutely dominated Kroos, Modric, and Casemiro. I’ve never seen that trio dominated like that.
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Axel Disasi's aerial duel numbers this season are insane.
-3.17 aerials won per match (93rd percentile for Prem centerbacks)
-86.4% aerial duel success rate (98th percentile for Prem centerbacks).
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Good scouting report on Gvardiol by
@siphillipssport
. One thing to add is his good attacking positioning. He often will overlap or underlap to drag a marker away from their position. This works bc he isn’t someone you can ignore if he’s attacking.
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Thus, I expect Potter to get the most out of players like Reece, Chilwell, Cucurella, and Sterling. Even Aubameyang has great through ball stats (.11/90).
I am interested in what attackers he favors. It would not surprise me if Ziyech's directness is attractive to Potter.
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Lampard played a much more balanced midfield today and had Chalobah invert.
That allowed Enzo to play more freely and the attackers to play much more direct, which resulted in goals, balls into the box, and more players in central spaces when the ball was lost.
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Any defensive setup that allows Badiashile and Disasi to play together would likely be the best first-phase ball progressing side in the Prem. It also would not sacrifice defensive solidity.
A quick stats 🧵:
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I’d prefer Jesus over Sterling because I think Jesus is a more fluid player and has better off-ball movement, pressing, and shot-creation for his teammates…
…but man, people clearly didn’t watch City. Sterling is a GOOD player and very direct + a great dribbler.
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We had the best CBs in the world and let the two in their prime leave and kept the two well past their prime. Marina was the worst.
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The other way Potter creates chances is what happens after the wingbacks carry the ball up the pitch. Potter tends to use his 8s, 10s, and even 9s to pass quick through balls to penetrate blocks.
Team chemistry is really important. Everyone needs to know where each other will be
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Potter's side is more direct. This is, in part, because they tend to be pressed higher than Chelsea, but it is also stylistic.
Tuchel keeps his CBs narrow and tends to build from the middle and get the ball to his wingbacks as close to the center as possible. Potter? not so much
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Christmas/Hanukkah present from my girlfriend and I’m SO FUCKING STOKED!
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Everyone that’s followed me since the start of the transfer window or earlier knows how highly I rate Josko Gvardiol. This is a stats 🧵that explains why.
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Chelsea build-up:
-10.44 seconds/sequence
-3.97 passes/sequence
-Progress ball at 1.31 metres/second
-12 sequences w/ 10+ passes that ends in a shot or has at least 1 touch in the box and 6 attacks where at least 50% of movement towards the opposition's goal and does the same.
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Nobody knows what will happen with Chelsea.
Personally, in the midst of COVID, I was dealing with severe depression. Chelsea FC were one of the things that helped me through.
I am going to enjoy every last minute of this season. Win, lose, or draw.
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The fact that Chelsea convinced this guy to come and be a backup is fascinating.
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I’ve done some comparing of Chelsea’s current CB targets to Rüdiger. The more I look at it, the more that I think the De Ligt + Aké combo replaces Rüdiger, not one or the other
This is common in analytics. For details, see this scene from Moneyball
A 🧵
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You know, strikers create chances out of thin air.
🗣️ “They’ve only scored 20 goals this season. That’s the lowest out of the top 10 teams. The top scorer is Raheem Sterling on 6.”
@_SamObaseki
says Chelsea should be desperate to sign a striker.💰
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Potter's pressing is also aggressive, though far less than Tuchel. Chelsea play with a high line and allow only a few passes by the opposition before acting.
Chelsea have the second highest passes per defensive action in the Prem this year, signaling an aggressive press.
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The same group of journalists have been saying that Jorginho is leaving for about three years, yet people still listen to them.
Jorginho isn’t leaving this window. He’s a locked-on starter for Tuchel when he’s healthy.
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Winstanley, Stewart, and Poch need to be fired. You can’t consistently be this bad at your job and keep it. The owners need to prove that they’re serious.
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Potter's teams play wider. The CBs split out wide and they, the GK, and the midfielders run patterns to get the wingbacks/wingers in space. These wide men carry the ball up the pitch and create the most chances. Just look at Trossard's and March's carrying chance creation stats.
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Potter likely can let his teams attack faster by conserving energy on their press, compared to Tuchel. The teams play at similar intensities holistically, but Potter is less aggressive defensively and more intense in attack.
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Leão's ability to take players on and whip crosses in off his right foot while on the left side of the pitch will add an interesting dynamic to the team. It likely moves Sterling over to the right side of the pitch, where he tends to be more creative.
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Today’s pass map looks like a 343 diamond again. Seems like Potter is back to a “base” 4231 that becomes a 541 in defense and a 343 diamond in attack.
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We are so lucky that we got sixth. Poch isn’t much better than Lampard.
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Chelsea's underlying numbers this year are basically pointing to an upper-mid table team.
Field tilt: 4th best
Expected threat: 7th best
Expected threat allowed: 5th best
xG: 10th best
xG allowed: 5th worst
xG diff: 9th worst
PPDA: 2nd, BUT opposition successful buildups: 4th
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Caicedo has a really wide skillset but people are making him out to be a ball winner at Kanté's level and that is not true.
Looking at ball recovery data I mined from FBRef, there are 21 midfielders between Kanté (9.48/90) and Caicedo (7.11/90), including Tyler Adams (8.29/90).
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Five goal contributions in over 1,100 minutes, is in the bottom 15% of Premier League wingers in expected assists/90, and is in the bottom 44% in terms of goal creating actions.
I like CHO, but he’s been an average Prem winger since the injury. No defensive work rate either.
👇 It's great to see Callum Hudson-Odoi nearing his best. He has the ability to be one of the Premier League's best wingers. The Forest move is making him sharper and fitter. 🔥
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Mudryk is one of the most tactically incompetent players in the Premier League. Rocks for brains.
Hopefully Nkunku getting healthy means the end of the Mudryk project.
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Brighton build-up:
-8.34 seconds/sequence
-3.09 passes/sequence
-Progress ball at 1.4 metres/second
-14 sequences w/ 10+ passes that ends in a shot or has at least 1 touch in the box and 13 attacks where at least 50% of movement towards the opposition's goal and does the same.
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Pro-tip: 17-19 year old wonderkid attackers with one-to-two attacking moves may be world class someday, but to insist they’ll be better than already-elite Prem attackers is jumping the gun.
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A quick 🧵on comparing Kepa and Mendy this season, their career shot stopping numbers, and why I am not sure if Mendy - outside of one blip - has ever clearly been a better shot stopper than Kepa.
Post-shot xG-Goals:
Kepa - +.82 (98th %tile)
Mendy - -.15 (43rd %tile)
Average distance of defensive actions:
Kepa - 20.7 yards (98th %tile)
Mendy - 13.2 yards (34th %tile)
Set piece goals against:
Kepa - 0
Mendy - 3
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Thiago Silva was fantastic today.
-107/111 passes
-70/74 on forward passes
-11/11 on passes in the attacking third
-5 ball recoveries
-2 interceptions
-4/4 clearances
Stats via
@StatsZone
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I can post all the stats that I want and tell you how excited I am that Chelsea are signing Raheem Sterling…
But this
@PlayersTribune
article that he wrote shows just how great of a person that I will get to root for. That’s the best part.
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It’s to protect Silva. It’s been to protect Silva for two years. Rüdiger was able to press high and recover, which allowed Silva’s poor pace to be mitigated.
The problem is so clear but nobody wants to admit it.
Does anyone know why our CB's were so deep??
Are we protecting Silva? Is he fit? Are we being precautionary with this?
It creates so much extra work for the midfield and fullbacks to back track while supporting the attack.
Just feels weird. No sense in pressing if your CB is
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34% of Sterling's assists and 45% of his key passes last season came on the right wing, despite only playing 22% of his minutes there.
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Did some digging and I think that Potter’s use of a midfield diamond towards the end of last season is an actual change in philosophy.
At Chelsea, Potter has predominantly used three formations: 343 diamond, 442 diamond, and a 4241 that turns into a 343 diamond in attack. A 🧵1/
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Tbh, Kai is playing better than he ever has for us since the WC break. I’m excited to see him with Felix in behind and speed down the wings.
Havertz still only 23 and has scored (5) almost 25% of Chelsea's Premier League goals. Graham Potter believes he can thrive alongside Joao Felix. As a result,
#CFC
aren't thinking about a Havertz exit just yet. There is a real belief at the club he can hit a purple patch.
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That is it for my 🧵. Will tag people. If you want to be tagged in future stats threads, lmk. If you want to be removed from the tags, also lmk.
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They’re totally different players. Chilwell is one of the best players at running into space unnoticed. He’s a huge attacking threat and solid defensively.
Cucurella is a tempo-dictating, left-sided defender with an elite cross. One of the best LBs in the world.
Ben Chilwell or Marc Cucurella…who is better?
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Cucurella’s willingness to pass between the lines is so refreshing.
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@Blades_analytic
@TEnglishSport
Also, we all root for players in major leagues that are 17/18 years old anyways. Ashwin is ostensibly an analytics wonderkid. It’s not weird, it’s fucking awesome!
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Poch never learns. There’s stories that are just like this from his days at Tottenham.
Players train until they’re in the red zone and players are rushed back from injury. These two things result in them being more prone to injury, including from random incidents.
🚨 In December, Romeo Lavia’s comeback was being accelerated due to technical staff pressing for his return as they needed a midfielder but the rehab of the player was not 100% done. There was some steps that needed to be taken but the technical staff did not listen to medical
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Leão's attempted 2.15 crosses/90 and completed about 23% of them. He averages the same xThreat/90 when it comes to dribbling and passing (0.09/90) and a 0.34 xG/90. He is the best at shot-creating actions through dribbling in the world (0.74/90).
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The overall differences can be seen in this graphic. Take it for what it is worth given the way opposition play against each team. Chelsea build play centrally and use their press to force the opposition into tight spaces. Brighton build wide and are pragmatic with their press.
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I’ll die on the hill that Badiashile will be a world class CB in a few years.
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My guess for tomorrow. Ziyech can be direct and Timo+Rom will be good at breaking Leeds’ press. Mount and Jorginho are good press-breakers in buildup. Alonso starts, but I think he could be subbed off easily for CHO or Pulisic if the match is tight.
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Time for a stats 🧵 on Jules Koundé. In short, I like the signing for 55m, but I do think there are reasons for Chelsea fans to be cautious.
I’m making a giant assumption that Kimpembe is the last CB we’ll be linked to for me to analyze. So here’s a 🧵 comparing his style of play with Rüdi, Azpi, AC, Koulibaly, and Aké.
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I think people are being really critical of the Tyler Adams signing and basing their opinions on his low fee and who he played for last season.
A statistical 🧵about why I’m excited for the signing.
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Here is my read:
1) Wallace has covered Saudi most of this summer. My gut is his sources are Newcastle.
2) Probably a disagreement on Hall's loan deal to Palace (Olise). This explains the delay.
3) Newcastle called and Chelsea picked up. Does not mean that Hall is for sale.
Breaking: Chelsea put Lewis Hall up for sale, seeking around £30m. (
@SamWallaceTel
@TeleFootball
)
#CFC
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To those saying that Jesus is “City’s scraps” really didn’t watch City the last three years.
Jesus was one of their best players, even when he went through scoring droughts. With Foden and Haaland, though, there just aren’t many minutes.
I think he’s a really great player.
If TT wants him and says he’ll use him then great. He’ll work well with Dembélé and is a good shot creator. I’m down.
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Yes, but it’s only like this for the NWSL. It’s not like this for any other event. They just don’t care about women’s soccer.
The same “technical difficulties” don’t happen every week in any other sporting league that they stream.
The fact that Paramount+ isn't free and it's like this........
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Continuous firing of coaches sucks for
@WashSpirit
, even if I agree with Michele Kang about firing Parsons.
In happier news, I do think that Sam Staab has had a phenomenal season. A quick stats 🧵
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Going to be hilarious when fans complain that Chelsea can’t build-up and Maresca needs to quit playing out of the back only to see that Osimhen can’t control long balls either.
The club did Maresca dirty by not getting this done until after preseason.
🚨 BREAKING: Chelsea are willing to send their first offer to Napoli in the upcoming hours for Victor Osimhen. (via
@DiMarzio
)
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Must listen episode! This is a fantastic one!
🚨 THE TINKERMEN: THE ANATOMY OF A REBUILD!
🗣️
@JoeTweedie
&
@TinkerTheTactic
— What Does A Rebuild Look Like?
— How Other Clubs Rebuilt
— Analyzing Chelsea’s Recruitment In January
— Favourite Signing, Highest Potential, Biggest Impact & More!
🎙️
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BREAKING: It’s possible to rate all of Reece James, Mason Mount, Thiago Silva, Antonio Rüdiger, N’golo Kanté, and Jorginho.
Fans legit don’t want to just enjoy Chelsea.
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Was thinking about this in my pod the other day with
@McNobzy
and then again listening to today’s
@LondonBluePod
with
@CFCCentral3
and
@dandormer
.
If those two stayed healthy I think there’s a good argument that Tuchel is still manager (this isn’t shitting on Potter).
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Chelsea have officially signing Moises Caicedo. So what are they getting?
A statistical 🧵
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He’s having an incredible season. He’s saved Chelsea roughly 4 points this season, not necessarily compared to Mendy though.
Not sure why it’s heresy to talk positively about Kepa and acknowledge his season.
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This suggests to me that Tuchel is switching to a 4141 system, not dissimilar to what Pep did with City last year. I could also see a 343 with true, out-and-out wingers.
Either way, the main five in attack, from left to right, will be:
Leão-Mount(?)-Aubameyang-Sterling-Reece
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I think that people need to understand how Maresca wants this team to play. My read is that he wants high ball retention in the final third, creation from wide areas, and central overloads for counterpressing.
The goal is 60-70% possession every match with 10+ shots/90.
João Félix and Pedro Neto have their numbers now. 🔵
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11K
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Chelsea aren’t linked to him, but Maxence Caqueret is a really good midfielder. I’d be a fan of us going for him, obviously depending on the fee.
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