Because the gaslighting is getting real strong now, and it's all too easy to start questioning reality, here is every forecast cone ever drawn by the NHC for
#Hurricane
#Dorian
.
Plus an arbitrarily-chosen state labeled.
It took
#Beryl
42 hours to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, on June 30th.
This has been done 6 other times in Atlantic hurricane history.
And the EARLIEST date this was achieved before was ...
September 1.
SEPTEMBER!
We drove 13 hours to Texas,
and 13 hours back (amazingly zero return traffic),
for a 4-minute experience.
And I do not say this lightly —
it was worth it.
Delta just went from 35mph tropical depression to 130mph category 4 hurricane in 30 hours!
I can't find any other storm on record in the Atlantic that has achieved this feat.
The next largest 30-hour intensification from tropical depression is Celia 1970: 35mph to 115mph.
I was unaware of the existence of this color name, nor did I know this was the color of tornado season.
But am I painting my bathroom this color now? You bet I am.
Hurricane
#Beryl
intensified from a tropical depression to a 105kt (120mph) category-3 in 42 hours, and 115kt (130mph) category-4 in 48 hours.
Here's how that intensification compares to all tropical depressions on record in the Atlantic.
Unprecedented barely covers it.
In the last 24 hour, Hurricane
#Dorian
intensified from 130kt to 160kt ... in fact it did this in under 9 hours.
Rapid intensification is an impressive enough feat, but becomes extremely rare from high initial intensities. From 130kt, it is unprecedented in the Atlantic.
Finally got around to checking this out.
The NHC 5-day forecast for
#Florence
is indeed the strongest they have ever projected an Atlantic tropical storm in the last two decades.
Here's a map of the amount of time spent in the 5-day NHC forecast cones so far in 2020.
Louisiana has had a cumulative of THREE WEEKS in the cone this year!
And now we have TD 28 tracking toward the same area.
Hurricane Ian intensified by 30kt in 12 hours last night, while already a cat-3/4.
At its location, there's no record of a storm this strong, strengthening *even at all* any further.
Rapidly intensifying major hurricanes at landfall is a terrible theme in the last few years.
Dear
@Tulane
,
Here is every forecast cone issued by the NHC up to yesterday evening. The consistency over eastern Louisiana is immaculate.
I trust you can find yourselves on a map, but maybe that was the original problem.
Politics aside, it is unacceptable for the President of the United States to be sharing and discussing outdated forecast maps for Dorian while the hurricane is *currently* having dangerous impacts in the Carolinas.
Hurricane Iota has intensified 85 kt (100 mph) in 36 hours.
8 storms have done this in 169 years of records prior to 2020:
Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Rita 2005, Wilma 2005, Felix 2007, Matthew 2016, Maria 2017
3 storms in the last two months:
Delta, Eta, Iota
Using recon data & satellite center fixes, here are wind duration swaths by category for
#Dorian
, zoomed in on Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands.
As it stalled out, portions of the islands endured:
hurricane-force winds for over 36 hours,
cat 2 for >24 hrs,
cat 3 for 6-12 hours!
I know I've become a broken record, but this is not something you see from a LIM everyday.
Large region of >95% warm probs (*ensemble mean* anomalies of 5C+) at weeks 3-4 lead-time.
The Pacific NW to Intermountain West and N Plains are going to BAKE through to early Sept.
At taco bell, the guy behind the counter:
"Weather doesn't really scare me. I've been analyzing the last few days and it hasn't really been all that hot or cold, so I'm not worried about today."
I can't. I almost screamed.
Fact is, this is 7 days out now, with pretty impressive consistency among NWP in producing, in *multiple ways*, an historic East Coast cyclone.
Consider me increasingly intrigued.
At the daily meeting of NWP:
ECMWF - "Okay group, what haven't we thrown at them yet for the end of October?"
CMC - "How about, wait for it, we take a Pacific hurricane and turn it into a Great Lakes blizzard?"
GFS - "I'm on it."
Updated and corrected chart with the latest best track intensity for Hurricane Delta.
This is the intensity trajectory of all tropical depressions in the Atlantic since 1851, with a few familiar outliers labeled, and now Delta, setting new records over the last 12 hours.
#Henri
is expected to slow to a crawl just as it's making landfall in New England. This is exceptionally rare, and has major ramifications with impacts.
The NHC forecast has Henri moving around 5 to 6kts over Rhode Island. The *slowest on record* for a hurricane there is 26kt.
Okay this is something ...
Eta just intensified from 35kt to a 115kt cat-4 in 36 hours.
Let's look at all Atlantic TCs *any time of the year* starting at 35kt or lower.
I did this and saw only ONE storm that was stronger at 36 hours ..... Remember Hurricane Delta?
Here is the total duration any given location has spent inside the radius of maximum wind, so far.
Portions of Grand Bahama are around 10 to 15 hours. Approaching 20 hours just offshore. And
#Dorian
continues to sit stationary.
(h/t
@burgwx
for suggesting this viz)
Updated map of time spent in NHC 5-day forecast cones in 2020.
Entire US coastline has been covered, most for at least 5 days. Louisiana has spent over 3 weeks in the NHC cone. Eta bumped up the Florida peninsula to over a week.
It’s 2021, with one of the higher-end confidence hurricane forecasts in terms of both track and intensity you could ask for, starting days ago.
This country’s performance in emergency preparedness and response is truly abysmal sometimes.
Cantrell: We don't have the time to implement contraflow. Therefore the city cannot pivot to a mandatory evacuation, because we don't have the time.
#NOLA
Latest NHC forecast for
#Earl
strengthens it to a 130mph category 4 hurricane over the central open Atlantic.
This is currently uncharted territory for category 4+ hurricanes, with zero such cases on record northeast of 32ºN/58ºW.
#Ida
's winds have intensified 40kts (45mph) in 11 hours.
Only 17 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic have strengthened 40kt in 11 hours or less.
3 of them were last year.
Michael will be a category 3 hurricane in Georgia. Making it only the 4th major hurricane in their history. And the other 3 were all in the 1800s.
And it passed over Florida first.
Per capita, Louisiana currently has the second most people hospitalized for covid in the US. And the highest number of people in the ICU.
And a major hurricane landfall in two and a half days.
(plots by
@burgwx
)
I had a script to plot the distance between Hurricane Iota and Hurricane Eta.
As of 00 UTC, that distance is zero. They are virtually in the same location, 13.5 days apart: Eta a cat 4, Iota a cat 5, a few miles from landfall in Nicaragua.
A hurricane slinky: Track and radius of maximum winds for
#Hurricane
#Dorian
, using the satellite estimates from ARCHER ()
Thanks for the suggestion
@RyanMaue
!
AccuWeather projects a higher frequency of severe weather risks in the traditional Tornado Alley this season. The states to be impacted the most will include Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Texas and Nebraska:
Colorado wind storms are not unusual. But when only an inch of snow falls for the first half of winter with months of record high temps, an extension of fire season is unfortunately unsurprising.
The climate change crisis isn’t just the future, it’s the present.
With the formation of Theta (the 29th named storm, and 8th Greek letter used), the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season sets a new record for most storms in a year, beating 2005.
All of the recon flight level wind observations below 600mb so far in 2020: a total of 119,252 points. There have been 237,920 obs including upper levels.
Fastest flight level winds recorded were 148kt (170mph) in Hurricane Laura.
Plot made in collaboration with
@burgwx
.
The points at which Tulane was put under a hurricane watch and hurricane warning, and where the storm was located at that time.
Stop making excuses for your own lack of awareness and preparedness.
Track of Hurricane Laura 6 weeks ago, and the forecast track of Hurricane Delta overlaid.
Current forecast landfall is just 12 miles from where Laura made landfall.
Date of the 75th tornado watch of the year:
2007 April 3
2008 March 8
2009 April 5
2010 May 1
2011 April 10
2012 March 29
2013 April 27
2014 May 11
2015 May 10
2016 May 26
2017 April 21
2018 August 26
Last year,
#Harvey
intensified 30kt and 35mb in the 24 hours up to landfall.
This year,
#Michael
intensified 35kt and 46mb in the 24 hours up to landfall.
These are nightmare scenario rapid intensification cases.
I’m usually never short of words, but all I can say is she said yes, and it was the happiest moment of my life.
I’m so excited for this next chapter of our lives together ❤️
Seven years ago, Hurricane
#Sandy
was making the hard left turn towards New Jersey.
Here's the evolution of the track and NHC forecasts through its life, plotted with
#Tropycal
.
Lightning in the northwest quadrant of
#Dorian
. Plus very quick symmetrization of the eyewall now. Assuredly in a period of rapid intensification. Plus heading toward the nocturnal convective max. Really making me wonder what we will be looking at by sunrise tomorrow.
#Beryl
has intensified by 65kt in the last 36 hours, and is now a major hurricane.
IN JUNE.
This level of rapid intensification has never happened in June before.
Twice in July: Bertha 2008, Dennis 2005
At 12 UTC 9/7,
#Hurricane
#Lee
had an intensity of 80kt. The NHC forecast initialized at this time (for the 15 UTC advisory), brings Lee to Category 5 intensity at 36 hours.
This isn't on the edge of unprecedented — it is a massive outlier in the history of NHC forecasts.
Follow these 3 simple tricks, and you'll never be wrong on a snowfall forecast again!
1) Plus signs after each range — can always be higher!
2) Unlabeled colors — avoid being verifiable.
3) Legend that's inconsistent with other labels — ambiguity is the key to success!
Ida will go down as one of the most impactful hurricanes in US history, from New Orleans to New York.
It also had amazingly accurate and advanced forecasts and warnings.
The past 7 days needs to be a benchmark interdisciplinary case study for sociologists and weather comms.
Any other meteorologists just have ALL the wind taken out of their sails hearing people say the flooding "caught them by surprise"?
@alroker
flagged the tri-state flood risk Sunday & Monday.
A HIGH RISK was issued yesterday. What more can we do? How can we better communicate?