Russia vs NATO - A Scenario🧵
Russian aggression isn't limited to Ukraine. Before the backdrop of constant threats to the Baltics and other European nations, the question when and where RF might strike again is of eminent importance.
This🧵explores an early option for Russia.
1/
To ruzzians who complain about the decadent west.
This is Elizaveta Peskova, daughter of Dmitry Peskov.
She lives in Paris with no plans to leave.
Ah yes, tasty western lifestyle. Especially the "Tarte Parisienne". I'm sure it is not russian "baguette" she "eats" every night.
Coup Proofing in Russia?🧵
Replacing Shoigu with Belousov was widely interpreted as move to strengthen the mil/ind complex performance. That analysis ignored the main motivator informing Kremlin conduct: System survival.
What we see now is a decapitation of the MoD and Army.
1/
Head of the Main Communications Directorate, Deputy Chief of Russian General Staff, Lieutenant General Shamarin Vadim Anatolyevich, has been reportedly detained.
@ukraine_map
Let me say it this way:
I am German and I think we should send parts of our "government" to Moscow..
And Leopards to Ukraine.
Then everything is in their natural habitat.
@maria_drutska
I know someone who follows such things professionally.
They say that what the russians do/did in Ukraine is at a totally new level not seen before.
Worse than ISIS, worse than Rwanda or any place in Africa.
Gebt Russland keine Chance!🧵
Die Gegner des Sieges der Ukraine haben eines gemeinsam: Sie kultivieren die Angst vor Russland.
AfD, LINKE und der Scholz Flügel der SPD schüren diese Angst und nutzen sie in Ihrem politischen Framework.
Es ist Zeit dies direkt anzugehen.
1/
@AdamKinzinger
@GenMhayden
Translation from Trumpian to English:
"Witch Hunt" = "Thorough investigation"
"Failing" = "homing in"
"Nobody believes" = "I know it's true"
"Sham to distract" = "My very own statement"
"dissolved IMMEDIATELY" = "OMG I'm going to JAIL"
Verlieren im Geheimdienst Krieg mit Russland🧵
Während die Ukraine tapfer das russische Militär abwehrt, hinkt der Westen weit zurück im Kampf gegen Russlands Geheimdienst Angriff. Die Reaktionen sind bisher verhalten und übermäßig vorsichtig. GRU & SVR haben fast freie Hand.
1/
@MaxwellFrostFL
@Wales4Ukraine
@manueloliver00
That's how capitol police and GOP treat a grieving father who speaks out peacefully. He went there to voice his opinion, which is what GOP claims the Jan. 6 insurrectionists were all about.
Compare them and how they were treated to this brave man.
@WorldAffairsPro
@EliotHiggins
RF passport for UA citizens - then pressed into army.
Another example of the famous show:
"Play stupid games - win stupid prizes"
@OAlexanderDK
@VoldemortessaLJ
*shock*
A system designed to defend vs ballistic missiles...
... intercepted a ballistic missile.
That's totally unreasonable if you are a russian.
As far as I know, Peskova is working for Aymeric Chauprade, a far right French member of European Parliament as his assistant.
I have not found anything contrary to this information, so if this changed please correct me.
@GenMhayden
We are blessed on Twitter to get intelligence briefings by
@GenMhayden
in presidential style! Short, precise and to the point.
"It's very good"
nuff said.
What are you? 🧵
You claim to love peace. You refuse to arm
#Ukraine
. You fear "WW 3". You claim to be a "Realist".
No matter how you rationalise it, behind the veil you are one thing to me:
Someone who lacks basic decency, a bystander of torture, a bad person.
1/3
Take war to Russia in 2024!🧵
Current discussion, if Ukraine will be able to liberate her territory, mostly ignores that UA has war goals that go beyond "simply" kicking the Russians out.
Aggressive asymmetric warfare vs Russia might present a solution to achieve these goals.
1/
@TimothyDSnyder
The UK is not ready to become part of the EU again.
First the UK has to resolve the domestic issues that laid the grounds for Brexit. Only after that is done they can appreciate the EU project.
Otherwise it is simply only an economic lifeline for the citizens and history repeats.
It's important to not mistake this terror for military strength or interpret some 4D chess plan in what's essentially terrorist activity.
Instead we should prepare that the Russian intelligence mafia state will ramp up it's terror and sabotage in our western societies.
16/END
Losing The Intelligence War With Russia🧵
While Ukraine valiantly fights the Russian military the collective West is far behind in it's defense versus Russia's intelligence onslaught. So far the response is timid, overly cautious, effectively giving GRU & SVR free reign.
1/
Appeasement breeds Escalation🧵
Some still refuse to learn the lessons of the 1930ies in Europe before WW2. What happens in Israel, almost happened in Kosovo, should be a stark reminder that the danger of appeasement lies mostly in it's indirect effects - and it costs lives.
1/
@georgian_legion
The
@georgian_legion
is only a step short before also becoming a travel agency...
Considering how many russians they are so kindly providing a free ride back home!
The Wolves get 'em!
@hansi97865
@JuliaDavisNews
The best part is when he calls for censorship to be introduced and then goes on to demand open and frank conversation about the future.
Oh and the bit about Solovyev claiming Belarus being part of russia. Luka loves that, I'm sure.
Under new Management?
Think of Russia as a mafia run company to facilitate embezzlement and money laundering. Turning around such structures is a herculean task even without the stress of a war, and an extraction focused economy under sanctions.
Belousov also is a Gosplan guy.
2/
Appeasement bringt Eskalation🧵
Viele weigern sich immer noch die Lektion der 30er Jahre vorm 2. Weltkrieg zu lernen. Was in Israel passiert (im Kosovo vorher fast) sollte daran erinnern, dass die Gefahr des Appeasement vor Allem in indirekten Folgen liegt - und Leben kostet.
1/
MISSING GENERAL - Help needed!🧵
Russian Col. General Leonid Ivashov seems to have gone missing - at last from the net.
Ivashov, former President of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, is famous for his repeated criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
1/
War (never) changes!
Belousov's main feat is that he has no patronage system in the armed forces. He is a non Silovik heading the main source of kinetic power in Russia.
War disturbed the fine balanced pillars of the vertical of power in Russia. War makes military powerful.
4/
Russia chickening out!🧵
Thanks to Russian propaganda and her allies in the West everybody talks about Ukraine. But let's not lose sight about the great things happening in Russia these days. After all, it's the season, people!
So what chicken doing?
1/
The type of management Belousov can implement in reasonable time is centralization and squeezing companies. But Rostec is already centralized and preemptively puts up resistance. It's run by Chemezov as a cash cow for the mafia Don himself.
So why make Belousov Minister now?
3/
@Gerashchenko_en
If your family sucks - join the russian army.
Then your whole life will suck.
But hey, at last you can win the lottery and get captured.
Russia faces a death spiral.🧵
And they know it.
Russian economy is running into a coffin corner with each day the war on Ukraine continues. Some observers of Russian economy and society look at RF commodity trade as rescue and forget long term cost.
1/
Wir müssen Macron beim Wort nehmen🧵
Gegen Russlands eskalierendes aggressives Verhalten hat es bisher vor Allem an Abschreckung gefehlt. Macrons Rede bietet die Chance wieder glaubwürdige Abschreckung herzustellen.
Durch Zweifel & Zerreden kann diese Chance verspielt werden.
1/
@secretsqrl123
@bayraktar_1love
Exactly. As it was only a special military operation. You risk your life, spleep in dirt have no food half a year, see friends die...
And people home say "so what" and soon "you lost"
That will really help the mood of those guys.
Arguably the FSB/intel networks w/ institutionalized corruption are the foundation of Kremlin power structures. It appears the Kremlin felt that as the war against Ukraine dragged on the military has become unreliable.
What we see now is the intel state clawing back control.
10/
Shoigu's extensive patronage system is being disassembled. Professional soldiers with esprit de corps (often opposed to Shoigu) are being arrested. All conducted by an aggressive FSB in a seemingly larger coordinated operation.
It seems that Cheka is taking back control.
9/
Watching Russia at times gave the impression that important actors were more focused on fighting over the control over military capabilities than fighting the Ukrainian army.
After Prigozhin's escapade the situation became untenable for the Kremlin, the Putinist system failed.
7/
Over the last years several indicators for growing dissatisfaction in the AFRF became visible - across all ranks, from the Mobik on TG to the commander of an army, Popov. The internal distribution of funds to the military also contributed to stress for the established system.
5/
Who has the guns?
Arguably the expansive use of PMC was an attempt to balance control over military capabilities and distribute it to Putin loyalists. In a sense this was an attempt to recycle the tried and trusted Kremlin balancing system.
That's power worth fighting over it.
6/
Deprofessionalizing an Army!
Competent, professional and ambitious officers can easily become a threat to a corrupt system of government. Especially when they feel their advice is not heeded and the army wasted senselessly.
It's a trade off between risk and army efficiency.
12/
@secretsqrl123
@christogrozev
And some might even have been trained in Britain and have modern crypted coms.
The one battle video we saw with the T-72 moving to a ridge firing hull down with inf behind it looked like proper tactics the russkis can only dream of.
@GenMhayden
Thank you for continuing to serve your country when it is in clear and present danger,
@GenMhayden
. I know the times are taxing for you, and still you make your voice heard.
Patriotism is not dead yet.
The war has already degraded the professional core of the lower army ranks to dangerous levels. Now it seems the Kremlin is attriting the upper echelons of professional officers for regime stability reasons.
With a deprofessionalized army the conduct of war might change too.
13/
A stupid (mafia) Intelligence State!
A government reshuffle lays the foundation for change. An extensive reshuffle tells us what's top priority for the regime.
What we witness is yet not a rapid change in economy, sacking of CEO's. We see rapid changes in military leadership.
8/
This would mesh with the stronger role of domestic intel structures. Russian military ops in Ukraine would then be less focused on controlling terrain and military victories but to shape the political environment in Ukraine and the west via the terror of military pressure.
15/
@KareemRifai
No wonder Briahna rejects talking about the moral dimension when discussing Ukraine. The concept of ethics is alien to her, it is just a convenient talking point.
Is the Future Hybrid Max?
Degrading the army leadership creates a bleak outlook for the capability to conduct successful large scale operations. Together with other indicators, like increasing sabotage activity, this could mean that Russia is seeking success by hybrid means.
14/
@KramarenkoMari3
Expert opinion:
Send in M31A2 and see how the russians working there react.
Their movement patterns should be an indicator for what is in the pressure containers.
Basic combat empirics.
The growing extent of the purges yet does not speak for a clever, subtly managed intelligence state. The Cheka makes extensive noise, rumbles through established systems of patronage and loyalty like a rabid bear.
The sense of urgency and perceived threat is noticeable.
11/
@Ezgi_Guyildar
@Ezgi_Guyildar
fragt: "Wie widerlich kann man sein?"
Beispiele, man kann:
- Opfer zu Tätern machen
- Faschismus als Frieden verkaufen
- Genozid & Folter rechtfertigen
- Denunzieren aber Opfer spielen
- Auf Gehaltsliste von Diktatoren stehen
- Das eigene Land verraten
@bayraktar_1love
The Snake Island cat survived despite Russian troops drinking all her vodka, ate all the rats and stole the cats TV and washing machine.
;-)
Ukraine und Politischer Wille.🧵
Für die Perspektiven der Ukraine ist essentiell wie verlässlich die Zusagen ihrer Alliierten sind. Letztendlich ist vom politischen Willen abhängig wann, welche und wie viel Unterstützung ankommt.
Der Umfang der Lieferungen wirft Fragen auf.
1/
@TimothyDSnyder
Not only the UK, the EU has homework to do too. It has to develop a more value based vision and integration.
Otherwise the EU will not be able to take full global responsibility and end up as a fragmented target for other powers influence.
Both, EU and UK need positive identity.
BROKEN NEWS:
Head of russian tank museum Kubinka warns:
Stocks of russian vehicles run low. Kubinka might be forced to deliver German WW2 vehicles to the russian army. First deliveries of Panzer IV obr. 2023 expected to be shipped mid May.
@CarloMasala1
More BREAKING:
Laut Info-Portal "Kremlin-Wremia" hat Frankreich den Flugzeugträger Charles de Gaulle nach Kyiv verlegt. Krynki wurde von Ukrainischen Marines besetzt um die sichere geheime Passage des Schiffs zu ermöglichen.
Ukraine can't compromise for peace!🧵
The idea to negotiate "peace" with Russia is as old as the war. Some claim Ukraine will be forced to make "painful concessions".
A military "stalemate", Russian "war economy" and waning support are often given as reasons.
It's all wrong.
1/
Die SPD ist gefangen im anti-Amerikanismus - der Utopie einer Revision der West-Integration.
Dabei wird weiteres Abrutschen Deutschlands in die russische Einflusssphäre nicht hur hingenommen sondern aktiv betrieben.
"Gerecht" und "Besser" wird Deutschland so nicht.
Nur korrupter.
Es ist beschämend, dass Parteimitglieder jubeln, wenn die Person, die sich am engagiertesten für die Unterstützung einsetzt, nicht gewählt wird.
Das ist menschlich ganz schwach und gibt einen Einblick, wie wenig einige seit den 24. Februar 2022 gelernt haben.
@Euan_MacDonald
@EliotHiggins
I knew all the stories about alien abductions were true!
What I did not know was that it has been the Ukranians all along!
Thank you FSB for solving this mystery.
Next: 3rd Reich Nazi UFO attack Crimea
Russian Strategic Goals
🇷🇺is open about the intent to destroy/weaken Western democracies and alliances like the EU or NATO. 🇷🇺is already conducting extensive ops to destabilize Western political systems and fuels elements of polycrisis in support.
This could stall UA mil aid.
4/
The arrest of
#Girkin
is quite pivotal. 🧵
Just a few weeks ago the authorities "protected" him from a potential bomb threat. Now, within a few hours he and his allies Kvatchkov and Gubarev are taken on by the "authorities".
So, why now & for what reason?
Is this a foreshadow?
1/
BROKEN: German Chancellor Sholzov departed on an urgent diplomatic mission to Moscow. No further details are available at this time. He was seen checking in using a one way ticket commercial flight to Moscow via Beijing.
#Scholz
travels with Plötner, Stegner, Schmidt & Mützenich.
Die implizite Angst vor Russland wird von der AfD dabei als allgemeine Angst vor Konflikt & Unsicherheit genutzt. Russland unterstützt dies durch den Aufbau verschiedener Angriffsvektoren wie Migration, Energiepreise etc im Rahmen einer Polykrise.
Lösung: Streichelt den Bären.
5/
Reasoning Peace with Russia.🧵
Ever since Russia's spree of wars started the dominant question is:
"What can be done so Russia accepts peace?"
This approach is fundamentally flawed. Russia can't be convinced or bribed - Russia has to ask for peace out of naked self interest.
1/
A great piece about the imperial nature of Russia, how it is fundamentally unable to sense it's own borders.
This work by
@john_sipher
and Glenn Chafez underlines what
@Sasha_Etkind
and
@KeirGiles
have been arguing for a long time now.
Ein zentrales Problem ist, dass die russischen Dienste weitgehend im Freiraum operieren können. Wie
@KonstantinNotz
feststellte mangelt es vor Allem an Abwehr. Die russischen Agenten und Dienste arbeiten nahezu risikofrei und werden nicht abgeschreckt.
2/
Without a devastating defeat for Russia there is no perspective that Russia and her allies will stop attacking our liberal democracies.
It's the logic of system competition autocracy vs democracy.
Autocracy has to fail - big time!
Russia must be defeated like Germany was in 1945
Tenzer warns about the danger of war fatigue among European leaders - despite the fact that the people of Europe are concerned about the Russian threat.
Nicholas Tenzer of the Center for European Policy Analysis told Deutsche
Dabei sind gerade in Deutschland die Nachrichtendienste stark eingeschränkt. Es fehlen nicht nur Personal, Betriebsmittel sondern auch juristische und administrative Grundlagen wie z.B. FISA oder holistische Lagebeurteilung wie
@RKiesewetter
feststellt.
3/
Im Populismus der AfD wird vordergründig für zwei Dinge geworben:
Partnerschaftliche Verbindung mit Russland und angebliche "Friedenspolitik" gegen "Kriegstreiberei".
Dabei wird mehr oder weniger deutlich Russland als Opfer, die westlichen Bündnisse als Aggressor dargestellt.
2/
If time comes and your support of evil has put you in peril yourself.
What will we do?
We will demand justice for you. We demand that you learn and pay for your crimes.
But
We will defend you from the very same evil you supported.
Because we never want to become what you are.
3/3
@JuliaDavisNews
Classic russian narrative. They are fighting the Mongols again. But now the Mongols are well educated, civilised and have table manners. And are in every respect more civilised than the russian soldiers.
An the real "en masse" has not even fielded by the AFU.
What copium is next?
Die AfD betreibt die Herauslösung Deutschlands aus bestehenden Strukturen, EU & NATO, bei gleichzeitiger Hinwendung zu aggressiven Autokratien, Russland & China.
Das ist eindeutig keine Friedenspolitik. Wie wird dieser Widerspruch verkauft?
Mit Angst.
3/
Ungarn und Serbien als Vorbild. AfD, "Partei Russlands", will Westbindung Deutschlands auflösen, innen und außen. "Nationalismus" als Unterwerfung unter Russland und als Abschottung gegenüber dem Rest Europas. AfD gefährdet Sicherheit und Wohlstand in 🇩🇪.
You see the suffering. You see russia repeat her crimes once again. You know if russia wins there would be even more torture and death.
Yet still you deny what you know. You deny what is blatantly evident. Some of you even paint the victim as the headsman.
You're bad people.
2/3
@jcbehrends
@spdbt
Erschließt sich hier evtl ein Zugang zu Stegners Motivation?
In drei Posts erwähnt er nicht einmal Ukrainische Opfer unter Soldaten oder Zivilisten. Im Gegensatz dazu scheint bei Stegner die Notwendigkeit russische "Angreifer" zu töten Befindlichkeiten auszulösen.
Ein Schelm...
@wartranslated
Yeah, but the info blackout is classic when there is no directive from the Czar. The pundits have to figure out:
1 - Putin ordered it
2 - Putin likes it
3 - Putin hates it and he is boss
4 - Putin hates it ans is threatened
5 - Putsch is starting
6 - Smoking accident
7 - Whut?
Wonder what's really wrong with russia? 🧵
Take a gander at "Team Navalny".
Whatever you may think about the questionable shark action - Leonid actually tries to make us believe, that what the average russian thinks matters. And that such actions give putin meaningful support.
1/
Wie kann man dieser Umkehr der Kausalität, dem Reiten auf unterbewussten Ängsten begegnen?
Am Besten indem wir Russland endlich als Gegner sehen und behandeln. So, wie die Ukraine gegen Russland kämpft müssen wir in unserem Land gegen die Verbündeten Russlands vorgehen.
9/
Comrade Airdefensovich near Kerch will face interesting decisions:
- Something low and slow pops up, should I keep monitoring high azimuth?
- Should I engage low and slow or high and ballistic?
- What is this Mach 3 thing moving to me?
- Should I illuminate or get hit by AGM-88?
STOP REPLYING TO "I AM" CAMPAIGNS We live in an age of hybrid warfare where the enemy is even gaining a benefit by doing social analysis of an adversary target group. Seemingly simple info you post can be used by a state actor to identify your ol/rl networks & maybe yourself. 1/2
@KyivIndependent
Their neutral status never prevented them from taking the money from a Russia in conflict.
Well at last they follow the EU sanctions, that is a good thing and to be frank, more than anyone expected.
So, in balance, Chapeau les Suisse.
1/ Winter is coming - to Russia
A small thread about Gas, Oil and Sanctions.
Russian propaganda and western media paint a picture of an Europe that enters into an ice-age of russian making. EU will freeze into unrest, chaos and recession.
But is this so or is it projection?
@CarloMasala1
Ach ja, liebe SPD.
Sehnsucht nach der guten alten Zeit der Friedensbewegung?
Vielleicht kommt die ja wieder wenn Russland gewinnt.
Der Kreml spendiert dann sicher die Bratwürste.
Macht Heute halt Gazprom statt wie damals ein russischer Kulturverein.
Mit Hamas demonstrieren schadet Palästina.🧵
Für den 13. Oktober hat die Hamas zu Protesten und Tag des Jihad gegen Israel(is) in der Islamischen Welt aufgerufen.
Zur Erinnerung: Erklärtes Ziel der Hamas ist nicht nur Vernichtung Israels als Staat, sondern auch der Menschen.
1/
@ChuckPfarrer
Russian embassy?
Since when is the mafia allowed to have embassies? This mistake has to be corrected. Send the occupants home and give the building to Ukraine.
(yes, it's not that easy, but hey one can dream)
Der Ausweg, den die AfD in diesem diffusen Bedrohungsszenario bietet ist genau so irrational wie die Bedrohung selbst:
Russland ist nur Bedrohung, weil es den Westen als Gegner sieht. Lösung: Wendet Euch von Euren Freunden (Westen) ab und umarmt den Aggressor (RF/CN).
6/
"The Beginning of Russian Revision Wars"
Former German foreign minister Fischer is clear:
Russia is merely at the beginning of a series of wars to revise Russia's position in the international order.
The best we can do for peace is to arm ourselves massively and support Ukraine.
Sehr lesenswert!
"Wir stehen gerade erst am Beginn der russischen Revisionskriege....Das Beste, was wir für den Frieden tun können, ist deshalb... massiv aufzurüsten. Niemand darf auf die Idee kommen, er könne das Bündnisgebiet angreifen."
Die Brutalität des Russischen Regimes ist jedem Deutschen klar. Dies nutzt die AfD und verbindet Hilfe für die Ukraine mit einer Bedrohung Deutschlands. Wenn wir helfen werden wir zum Ziel, werden von Russland als Gegner betrachtet und implizit Ziel dieser Brutalität
Angst.
4/
Gerade fehlende Einbindung in ein schlüssiges Konzept zur Nationalen Sicherheit schafft Gegnern unnötig Freiräume. So konnten bekannte Russische Gefährder trotz Warnung einreisen, chinesische Komponenten werden in kritischer Infrastruktur verbaut.
Es fehlt Problembewusstsein.
4/
Die Angst for Russischer Aggression ist scheinbar auch Leitmotiv für Kanzler Scholz. Hier ist die Grenze wohl anders als bei der AfD gesetzt, die Ukraine darf lediglich nicht gewinnen.
Die Aggressoren Russland und China sind aber auch zukünftige Partner
8/
Beim Einsatz von
#Taurus
passiert wahrscheinlich das hier.👇😳😮😨
#Scholz
rettet gerade die Welt.
Er hat den Überblick, wir nicht.
Mit
#TaurusForUkraine
wäre es vieleicht sofort vorbei mit uns allen! 😱😱😱 WW3! Olaf, Nein!!!
Fordern nach mehr Hilfe für die Ukraine befördert die Vorgehensweise der AfD und der Appeasement Fraktion.
Um mehr Erfolg zu haben müssen wir deutlicher machen, dass Russland das Problem, Kernbedrohung ist.
Motto: Russland ist Feind der Freiheit und schlecht für Deutschland!
10/
Negotiating with Russia - again?🧵
Well, why repeat a mistake when you can make one that's much worse?
Worse, because the global threat situation has changed and Russia continues to attack NATO infrastructure. Without any repercussion or deterrent.
Unity seems to be one issue.
1/
NBC: U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.
Diese Schwächen werden von Russland als Zeichen niedriger Konfliktbereitschaft interpretiert. Verstärkt wird dies durch zurückhaltende Reaktionen auf Operationen wie Tiergarten-Mord, dem Anschlag auf das GSM-R Netz oder dem Fall Carsten L & "Puffotter".
5/
@JuliaDavisNews
@facebook
You are a gem, Julia and it is a pity some people do not understand where the line is.
All I can hope is that this was not a deliberate attempt to discredit your fantastic translations.
Many thanks to you!
Scenario: A Czar Is Born🧵
Navalny, "elections" & Führer Putin.
Since Prigozhin's demise a trend to more overtly oppressive governance is noticeable in Russia.
This thread contextualizes events & change of modus operandi with a potential totalitarian turn at the "elections".
1/