skep_observer
@skep_observer
Followers
1,057
Following
879
Media
1,246
Statuses
9,479
Singaporean patriot 🇸🇬 #ElectionTwitter Cartographer “Live and let live” Pragmatic Labourite
🇸🇬
Joined December 2022
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#CamperXBecky
• 256661 Tweets
Camper Right Nina Pop Up Event
• 254843 Tweets
sabrina
• 186807 Tweets
京都国際
• 177752 Tweets
Cruzeiro
• 127424 Tweets
7DREAM ENGLISH SINGLE OUT NOW
• 95932 Tweets
renjun
• 86631 Tweets
PIDOM
• 60765 Tweets
علي النبي
• 57079 Tweets
関東第一
• 53758 Tweets
ラストマイル
• 44970 Tweets
Sabine
• 44357 Tweets
タイブレーク
• 37472 Tweets
Hayırlı Cumalar
• 37147 Tweets
Vyse
• 28504 Tweets
チー付与
• 25883 Tweets
おじさんの詰め合わせ
• 25267 Tweets
#يوم_Iلجمعه
• 22349 Tweets
フラッシュ
• 20862 Tweets
#جمعه_مباركه
• 12542 Tweets
राष्ट्रीय अंतरिक्ष
• 11635 Tweets
セカンドライフ
• 11297 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Kamala Harris’s pick of Tim Walz suggests she may want to prevent WWC upper Midwestern support for Democrats from eroding further. A test of this will be in Duluth’s St. Louis County, home to the famed Mesabi Iron Range, and the “Labor” in the MN Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.
7
40
281
In a week, Taiwan will hold its Presidential and Legislative Yuan elections. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party terms out this time, won a landslide reelection in 2020 emphasizing on democratic values in contrast to the PRC.
13
107
1K
While it is expected that Kamala Harris will do well in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, Democrats cannot afford to ignore small metros and working-class cities, especially in crucial states like Pennsylvania. Northwestern PA’s Erie County is one WWC bellwether to watch.
16
62
1K
It’s down to R+3.7 now. Mississippi is somehow still counting votes.
21
42
725
Is Katie Hobbs winning Arizona in 2022 the Democrats’ version of the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election?
Governor Katie Hobbs to Gateway Pundit reporter chasing her and asking election denier questions: “Give it a fucking rest, Jordan. I’m at the gym.”
1K
2K
14K
11
14
578
Below, the last GOP Presidential winner of:
-Darien, CT
-Chester County, PA
-Gwinnett, Henry & Cobb County, GA
-Orange County, CA
-Salt Lake County, UT
-Fort Bend County, TX
-Anne Arundel County, MD
11
8
434
Andy Beshear in Kentucky has won by a larger margin than Tony Evers in Wisconsin.
6
25
437
Justice-elect Daniel McCaffery in Pennsylvania won by a bigger margin than Kathy Hochul in New York.
7
32
322
SONG, SONG OF THE SOUTH…
NY Times and CNN have not updated, but this I bring to your notice. As per the county website …
Brandon Presley FLIPS rural Winston County in central Mississippi by 85 votes.
8
41
294
Tate Reeves in Mississippi has now won by a smaller margin than Donald Trump won Texas and Brian Kemp won Georgia.
9
23
280
As Biden announces his re-election bid, we mustn’t forget the crucial places that sent him to the White House, and sent Donald Trump back to Mar-a-Lago. Nowhere is the suburban revolt more dramatic than in Chester County, in the Philadelphia suburbs.
7
34
275
Another observation: Tate Reeves won by a smaller margin than North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. Barely.
5
11
261
I’ve been busy lately, but it gives me great pleasure to finally come back to mapmaking. This is quite a big one. Last year, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger defeated Bee Nguyen by 9 points, becoming the strongest performing statewide Republican of the 2022 cycle.
10
36
260
First Democrats many ancestral GOP suburbanites may have ever voted for in their life.
15
4
240
2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. Predict what happens.
*Evers is eligible for a third term as Wisconsin has no gubernatorial term limits.
19
9
236
It has taken a while, but I am here with my first non-American map. A few days ago, incumbent controversial Turkish President Recep Erdoğan narrowly won re-election by 4.4 points.
16
32
203
Unbelievable Democratic trends in central Ohio. Columbus’ Franklin County. Even as Ohio trends powerfully GOP due to WWC voters, Franklin County has rocketed left, and this may result in ancestrally GOP Delaware County up north to fall.
15
9
201
Charlie Crist holds the distinction of having lost Florida in landslides both as a Republican and as a Democrat.
And of course, even in 1998, Miami-Dade County voters have indicated overwhelmingly that they did NOT want Charlie Crist to become Senator, or in 2022, Governor.
8
25
187
Tomorrow, the closely-watched WISC general election will take place. One area to watch closely will be the WOW, and how Dan Kelly performs there. The WOW is a rapidly left trending region, but none as dramatic as Ozaukee County, just north of Milwaukee.
12
31
180
After NC, America was rocked by more drama out of TN. Gloria Johnson of Knoxville was the only survivor of the expulsion vote, and one of attorneys was not someone I expected to see: Legendary Blue Dog Dem-turned-Independent, former Rep. John Mark Windle, of HD41.
Former Rep. John Mark Windle is representing Gloria Johnson. Windle, one of the last conservative rural Democrats in the legislature, is well liked on both sides.
2
3
43
6
29
174
Rick Santorum got blown out by a bigger margin (as a 2-term incumbent) than Doug Mastriano.
What a thrashing.
13
5
177
I have just noticed that Josh Shapiro won Erie County by more than Bucks.
Bucks: D+19.8
Erie: D+21.4 (??!!)
3
1
174
Katie Hobbs (b: 1969) is 8 years older than Brandon Presley (b: 1977).
Strongly recommend SPF 50 sunblock to protect from the harsh Mississippi sun. Arizona has harsh sun too so applicable there also.
3
2
167
Marginwise, Doug Jones in AL outperformed Jon Ossoff in GA. D+1.63% vs D+1.22%.
6
3
159
Part 1:
The Michigan Dem-controlled legislature have been working overtime passing bill after bill. The trifecta came after Dems had a very good night in MI, especially Macomb County. This is the spiritual home of the WWC Reagan Democrat, and also Trump Democrats.
4
25
155
I never thought that it was possible a Republican can win Georgia by 9 whilst still losing Gwinnett, Henry and Cobb until this happened. The margin must be fuelled by strong rural performances:
So it was. We need to analyse how Bee Nguyen just imploded in southwest Georgia.
11
3
162
Part of the reason why Democrats limited losses in the US House comes down to ancestral GOP suburbs. Suburbs where Biden made big inroads in 2020 impressively held on for Dems in 2022. Today, we are in one of the nation’s quintessential marginal seats: North Carolina 13th.
8
31
156
How many people in Beshear’s photo voted for Trump twice?
9
5
155
Add this to the writeup I did on Monday. I have the Ozaukee map. What a stunning night all over. Protasiewicz may end up winning statewide by double digits, and performed very credibly in the WOW, holding Dan Kelly to under 5 points in Ozaukee.
Tomorrow, the closely-watched WISC general election will take place. One area to watch closely will be the WOW, and how Dan Kelly performs there. The WOW is a rapidly left trending region, but none as dramatic as Ozaukee County, just north of Milwaukee.
12
31
180
1
25
147
Does Abigail Spanberger win back Biden-Youngkin Chesterfield County, Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach in 2025?
I'm officially running to become the next Governor of Virginia.
I'm a former CIA case officer, former federal agent, current Member of Congress, and mom to three great kids.
I know that when we rise above the chaos and division, we can focus on what matters most to Virginians.
2K
5K
24K
41
1
151
How many UK voters will be like this? Describe them.
1979: Tory
1983: Tory
1987: Tory
1992: Tory
1997: Tory
2001: Tory
2005: Tory
2010: Tory
2015: Tory
2017: Tory
2019: Tory
2024: LABOUR
12
3
152
Mississippi is down to R+3.2 now. Tate Reeves has officially won by less than Trump won Florida (R+3.4) and has won by the same margin as Ted Budd in North Carolina.
10
6
146
Nobody ever talks about just how red southern Missouri is
18
1
151
Who voted for Tim Scott but refused to vote for Governor Henry McMaster?
20
4
142
The Virginia primaries were held weeks ago. Exciting night, but I had great interest in the Senate District 18 Democratic primary. Virginia Senate pro Tempore and Dem firebrand
@SenLouiseLucas
fended off a primary challenge from Senator
@SenLSpruillSr
in the redrawn seat.
4
43
137
Whoa!
The old seat was a 2016 Trump+6, 2020 Trump+0.2 seat.
5
8
140
If Norm Coleman was successfully re-elected in 2008, does he survive 2014 and 2020?
49
4
137
How would LG Bill Halter have done in the November election?
18
5
130
The Asians, the Jews, the Russians and the Italians did NOT like Kathy Hochul.
While we're all waiting for New York to release statewide 2022 results, I've added 2022 data to NYC.
8
7
198
11
3
126
A new Wikipedia map, and one ET has been waiting for. In 2022, former CIA agent turned-Democratic congresswoman Elissa Blair Slotkin won re-election by a close but clear margin in MI07, a true swing district anchored by the state capital, Lansing.
7
17
126
That’s… the median voter
My roommate from Erie County Ohio:
Voted for DeWine, Vance, and Kaptur. Voted against Issue 1.
Supports Nikki Haley in the GOP primary.
Would vote for Biden in a rematch.
Undecided in Senate but leaning towards Sherrod Brown.
25
2
226
1
6
124
In 2018, Andrew Gillum actually won Duval County by more than Senator Bill Nelson.
Describe a Rick Scott-Andrew Gillum voter.
18
4
119
The DPP leans centre-left and is among the most ideologically liberal in East Asia, advocating for progressive causes like same-sex marriage, gender equality and social welfare programmes for the disadvantaged.
2
0
125
Kamala Harris’s path to the White House rests on her performance in middle class suburban communities that have turned away from the GOP. We have a look at an old GOP heartland suburb in one of the country’s marquee swing states: Michigan’s Oakland County, north of Detroit.
3
21
129
What is going on in Niihau?
Kauai County HI contains the islands of Kauai and Niihau. Biden won it by 29 points due to the population and deep blue hue of Kauai. He won 0 votes on Niihau notably, with Trump winning all 43 voters
#ElectionTwitter
3
8
76
18
2
118
Part 1:
A lot has been said about GOP’s woes in suburbs like Oakland and Kent Counties, but another region with a massive Dem trend seems to have flown under the radar. Today, we come to a beautiful part of Michigan, the heart of the Cherry Coast: Grand Traverse County.
3
31
120
Before going any further, you must know that Taiwan’s political system is dominated by 2 camps. The Pan-Blue coalition is headed by the Kuomintang. The KMT had been the longtime ruling party of the Republic of China, producing noted figures like Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek.
1
0
120
Governor Tony Evers in Wisconsin (just barely) outran Governor Phil Murphy in New Jersey.
What a difference the prevailing political environment and style of candidates make.
5
4
121
Good time we take a look at what happened to JD Vance’s “spiritual mountain home”, Jackson’s Breathitt County the last time Andy Beshear was on the ticket. This is the heart of the Kentucky Appalachia, where coal ruled and Trump rules. And, so does Andy.
2
26
121
Doug Mastriano has announced he will NOT Bob Casey for PA’s Senate seat. Nevertheless, we will still look at the county which birthed the Casey family institution, and where Joe Biden was born in 1942. We are in the heart of WWC North-eastern PA: Scranton’s Lackawanna County.
Pennsylvania State Sen. Doug Mastriano Not Running for US Senate
84
30
294
6
22
109
Mastriano did NOT, in fact, win Luzerne County.
2
4
112
No long writeup with lots of maps today, but I have uploaded a new US House precinct map to Wikipedia. In 2022, moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick won re-election to his Bucks County seat by 10 points despite statewide GOPers crashing in the Philly suburbs.
9
28
110
Tories LOSE majority control of East Hertfordshire Council. Absolutely crippling losses for the Tories. 48/50 seats declared, and Greens are the largest party. They started the night with 1 councillor. They have 17 now. Everybody other than Tories gained seats.
3
37
113
Governor Roy Cooper won by a bigger margin than Phil Murphy.
5
4
109
Lots of things happened yesterday with the Trump indictment, and just in time, I have a new map. Today, we will be discussing the strong rightward trends in recent years among Hispanic voters along the Mexican border. For this, we are in the Grand Canyon State, in Yuma County.
9
25
99
Part 2:
We are now in Benzie County, a very small rural county in the Cherry Coast, where one of the most shocking Michigan results in 2022 happened. Gretchen Whitmer, Jocelyn Benson and Dana Nessel all won it.
4
17
103
Last Democratic victory in a Mississippi gubernatorial election. What happened?
10
3
101
This is a deep red and heavily white suburban county outside of Jackson. Trump won it by 52 in 2016 and 45 in 2020. Reeves won it by 30 in 2019.
By how much does Reeves win it next week?
16
2
105
Southern Colorado: Yo voy a votar por JARED POLIS
US Governor Jared Polis released a video in his spanish Twitter account singing a popular Christmas jingle from Latin America.
8
65
834
0
6
102
Elliott County still voted for Andy Beshear by 20 points and every Dem candidate in 2019.
I thought my followers would enjoy this CNN clip about Elliott County.
22
36
415
3
1
98
Following Taiwan’s transition to democracy, the Pan-Green coalition gained in support, headed by the Democratic Progressive Party. The DPP strongly believes in a Taiwanese identity and support the idea of an independent Taiwan state, hence their rejection of the 1992 Consensus.
1
0
102
The Kuomintang leans centre-right, and advocates for more cordial relations with the mainland, accepting the 1992 Consensus which spelt out the “One China Policy” that Taiwan is a part of China. This principle has formed the bedrock of ROC-PRC relations.
1
0
97
Part 1:
Welcome back, folks. On April 10, PA Senator Bob Casey announced his re-election bid. As we await confirmation from Doug Mastriano about his running, we come to an area in Pennsylvania that has seen dramatic political shifts in recent years: Cumberland County.
Folks, I’m running for re-election.
There’s still more work to do to cut through the gridlock, stand up to powerful special interests, and make the lives of hardworking Pennsylvanians easier.
The map is back, and I’m not done yet.
182
629
3K
8
19
96
Nicholas County is a tiny, rural county near Lexington. Very fascinating place indeed. Was Trump+41 in 2016 and Trump+42 in 2020. But the pro-choice side scored an unbelievable 19-point win there. Beshear narrowly won it by 1 in 2019.
How does he do there next week?
11
6
96
Sorry repost because of a typo. How are the Hispanic population in red different from the Hispanic population in green? Very Hispanic, but have vastly different voting patterns.
21
0
96
After the Trump era, Dems have slid massively in their former heartlands, WWC areas. Depending on how you lean, these maps can either bring you unbridled satisfaction or unimaginable anguish. But here we go, Youngstown’s Mahoning County: 2022 Gov and 2022 Senate.
4
15
84
Does Matt Gaetz lose Miami-Dade County? If so by how much?
"Hey liberals!"
*underperforms DeSantis by 11*
19
21
382
22
0
87
Part 2:
However, there was one Dem in Macomb who did not have a good night: Carl Marlinga in Michigan 10th. In a massive heartbreak for Dems, former 2018 and 2020 GOP Senate nominee John James narrowly eked out a 0.5% victory.
3
12
85
I know there aren't elections in Arizona, but I have finished and uploaded a new Congressional map. In one of the closest House races in the country, incumbent GOP Rep David Schweikert narrowly clung to AZ01, a rapidly left trending suburban seat in Maricopa County.
5
16
83
Quite incredible that top Republicans all lost Nash County in 2020, Donald Trump, Thom Tillis
And of course Cooper wins his home county by 7
2
0
90
We now come to Northeastern MS, a hotbed of a particular kind of
#ancestraldems
: Dixiecrats. This is Lee County, Presley’s home base, where Nettleton straddles the border with Monroe County. I included Presley’s 2015 election to show you what kind of margin he was capable of.
3
16
86
Jimmy Carter has outlived Henry Kissinger. Take that as you wish.
1
4
86
How did Mike Ross outrun an incumbent US Senator?
7
4
84
Raphael Warnock holds the Senate formerly held by legendary Conservadem Zell Miller. If Miller was alive in the 2021 runoff and 2022 general election, how would he have voted? Would he back Warnock twice?
18
1
84
The Kuomintang finds their strongest support among mainland Chinese immigrants who fled after 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party took power in the mainland. The ethnic Han Chinese who speak Mandarin and Hakka are often considered to form the core of the party’s support.
1
0
84
The KMT also draws strong support from Taiwan’s aboriginal population. Throughout history, many of them had faced discrimination from existing Hokkien-speaking settlers who came during the imperial period.
1
0
83
Part 2:
Aside from Congressional races, local state legislature battles are perhaps more important as they are much closer to people and have a more direct impact on them. With Dems narrowly winning the State House, every seat counted. Today, we talk about one of them: HD103.
2
13
76
By how much did Presley lose the old northern district? Is it in single digits?
6
0
79
This is the reason why KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu bested Tsai in the northwestern counties of Miaoli and Hsinchu, which has a very high share of Chinese from the Hakka dialect group. 64% of Miaoli County is Hakka, and 84% in Hsinchu County.
1
1
82
In one of the most shocking performances of 2026, Democrat
@DJBranham
of Pittston overwhelmingly won this right trending NEPA seat, after longtime incumbent Matt Cartwright retired. Branham won even in a red wave 2026 midterm.
After seeing this I have no concerns about my replies to cadence ruining a potential political career
8
5
125
6
8
72
Erie is a heavily Democratic working-class city on the Lake Erie coast, and Erie County is mainly divided between Erie and the increasingly Republican WWC towns to the south and east.
1
3
84
The KMT settlers who came to Taiwan from 1949 forged relations with the aboriginal population, who mostly live in the mountains in Eastern Taiwan, becoming a so called “iron vote” for the KMT. This article explains more:
1
0
79
Wow. I just noticed with more numbers in, Brandon Presley flipped Trump+12 Grenada County by a whopping 7 points. Jim Hood lost it by 1.8 in 2019. This is a winning pace, but unfortunately for Presley was not replicated everywhere.
He also cracked 47%, and outran Hood by 0.5%.
3
9
73
Josh Shapiro got more raw votes in 2022 than Hillary Clinton 2016.
In fact, he got more raw votes than her in all 3 of his statewide runs, and also got more raw votes than Biden in 2020.
3
5
69
Waukesha is ground zero for the so-called “Walker Machine” that has given conservative firebrand, Gov. Scott Walker his victories. This is one of the powerfully GOP suburb anywhere in the US. But trends are still coming. In 2022, despite his loss, Barnes outran Evers 2018 here.
Waukesha County, long a suburban Republican stronghold, has been trending leftward at an astonishing rate. Going from the very red 2014 to the very blue 2018, the 12% swing left made sense. But going from the very blue 2018 to the pretty red 2022, another 13% swing was shocking.
25
46
316
3
1
67
Attention must also be given to the Taipei metro, where 1/3 of the population lives in. Taipei, New Taipei and Keelung are ancestrally Pan-Blue, and still is downballot, where the KMT remains the largest party in the Taipei and New Taipei City Councils.
2
1
73
In fact, ever since direct Presidential elections began in 1996, no DPP candidate has ever won the 3 cities in the Taipei metro and the city of Taoyuan to the west until Tsai Ing-wen did it in incredible fashion in 2016, and again in 2020 as pictured, by double digits.
1
1
72
The DPP, on the other hand, appealed strongly to liberals and Hokkien-speaking ethnic Chinese who live mainly in the south, in cities like Kaohsiung and the historic capital of Taiwan, Tainan. Tainan also happens to be VP William Lai’s hometown, where he used to serve as mayor.
1
2
71