Kamala Harris’s pick of Tim Walz suggests she may want to prevent WWC upper Midwestern support for Democrats from eroding further. A test of this will be in Duluth’s St. Louis County, home to the famed Mesabi Iron Range, and the “Labor” in the MN Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.
In a week, Taiwan will hold its Presidential and Legislative Yuan elections. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party terms out this time, won a landslide reelection in 2020 emphasizing on democratic values in contrast to the PRC.
While it is expected that Kamala Harris will do well in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, Democrats cannot afford to ignore small metros and working-class cities, especially in crucial states like Pennsylvania. Northwestern PA’s Erie County is one WWC bellwether to watch.
Below, the last GOP Presidential winner of:
-Darien, CT
-Chester County, PA
-Gwinnett, Henry & Cobb County, GA
-Orange County, CA
-Salt Lake County, UT
-Fort Bend County, TX
-Anne Arundel County, MD
SONG, SONG OF THE SOUTH…
NY Times and CNN have not updated, but this I bring to your notice. As per the county website …
Brandon Presley FLIPS rural Winston County in central Mississippi by 85 votes.
As Biden announces his re-election bid, we mustn’t forget the crucial places that sent him to the White House, and sent Donald Trump back to Mar-a-Lago. Nowhere is the suburban revolt more dramatic than in Chester County, in the Philadelphia suburbs.
I’ve been busy lately, but it gives me great pleasure to finally come back to mapmaking. This is quite a big one. Last year, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger defeated Bee Nguyen by 9 points, becoming the strongest performing statewide Republican of the 2022 cycle.
It has taken a while, but I am here with my first non-American map. A few days ago, incumbent controversial Turkish President Recep Erdoğan narrowly won re-election by 4.4 points.
Unbelievable Democratic trends in central Ohio. Columbus’ Franklin County. Even as Ohio trends powerfully GOP due to WWC voters, Franklin County has rocketed left, and this may result in ancestrally GOP Delaware County up north to fall.
Charlie Crist holds the distinction of having lost Florida in landslides both as a Republican and as a Democrat.
And of course, even in 1998, Miami-Dade County voters have indicated overwhelmingly that they did NOT want Charlie Crist to become Senator, or in 2022, Governor.
Tomorrow, the closely-watched WISC general election will take place. One area to watch closely will be the WOW, and how Dan Kelly performs there. The WOW is a rapidly left trending region, but none as dramatic as Ozaukee County, just north of Milwaukee.
After NC, America was rocked by more drama out of TN. Gloria Johnson of Knoxville was the only survivor of the expulsion vote, and one of attorneys was not someone I expected to see: Legendary Blue Dog Dem-turned-Independent, former Rep. John Mark Windle, of HD41.
Former Rep. John Mark Windle is representing Gloria Johnson. Windle, one of the last conservative rural Democrats in the legislature, is well liked on both sides.
Katie Hobbs (b: 1969) is 8 years older than Brandon Presley (b: 1977).
Strongly recommend SPF 50 sunblock to protect from the harsh Mississippi sun. Arizona has harsh sun too so applicable there also.
Part 1:
The Michigan Dem-controlled legislature have been working overtime passing bill after bill. The trifecta came after Dems had a very good night in MI, especially Macomb County. This is the spiritual home of the WWC Reagan Democrat, and also Trump Democrats.
I never thought that it was possible a Republican can win Georgia by 9 whilst still losing Gwinnett, Henry and Cobb until this happened. The margin must be fuelled by strong rural performances:
So it was. We need to analyse how Bee Nguyen just imploded in southwest Georgia.
Part of the reason why Democrats limited losses in the US House comes down to ancestral GOP suburbs. Suburbs where Biden made big inroads in 2020 impressively held on for Dems in 2022. Today, we are in one of the nation’s quintessential marginal seats: North Carolina 13th.
Add this to the writeup I did on Monday. I have the Ozaukee map. What a stunning night all over. Protasiewicz may end up winning statewide by double digits, and performed very credibly in the WOW, holding Dan Kelly to under 5 points in Ozaukee.
Tomorrow, the closely-watched WISC general election will take place. One area to watch closely will be the WOW, and how Dan Kelly performs there. The WOW is a rapidly left trending region, but none as dramatic as Ozaukee County, just north of Milwaukee.
I'm officially running to become the next Governor of Virginia.
I'm a former CIA case officer, former federal agent, current Member of Congress, and mom to three great kids.
I know that when we rise above the chaos and division, we can focus on what matters most to Virginians.
How many UK voters will be like this? Describe them.
1979: Tory
1983: Tory
1987: Tory
1992: Tory
1997: Tory
2001: Tory
2005: Tory
2010: Tory
2015: Tory
2017: Tory
2019: Tory
2024: LABOUR
Mississippi is down to R+3.2 now. Tate Reeves has officially won by less than Trump won Florida (R+3.4) and has won by the same margin as Ted Budd in North Carolina.
The Virginia primaries were held weeks ago. Exciting night, but I had great interest in the Senate District 18 Democratic primary. Virginia Senate pro Tempore and Dem firebrand
@SenLouiseLucas
fended off a primary challenge from Senator
@SenLSpruillSr
in the redrawn seat.
A new Wikipedia map, and one ET has been waiting for. In 2022, former CIA agent turned-Democratic congresswoman Elissa Blair Slotkin won re-election by a close but clear margin in MI07, a true swing district anchored by the state capital, Lansing.
My roommate from Erie County Ohio:
Voted for DeWine, Vance, and Kaptur. Voted against Issue 1.
Supports Nikki Haley in the GOP primary.
Would vote for Biden in a rematch.
Undecided in Senate but leaning towards Sherrod Brown.
The DPP leans centre-left and is among the most ideologically liberal in East Asia, advocating for progressive causes like same-sex marriage, gender equality and social welfare programmes for the disadvantaged.
Kamala Harris’s path to the White House rests on her performance in middle class suburban communities that have turned away from the GOP. We have a look at an old GOP heartland suburb in one of the country’s marquee swing states: Michigan’s Oakland County, north of Detroit.
Kauai County HI contains the islands of Kauai and Niihau. Biden won it by 29 points due to the population and deep blue hue of Kauai. He won 0 votes on Niihau notably, with Trump winning all 43 voters
#ElectionTwitter
Part 1:
A lot has been said about GOP’s woes in suburbs like Oakland and Kent Counties, but another region with a massive Dem trend seems to have flown under the radar. Today, we come to a beautiful part of Michigan, the heart of the Cherry Coast: Grand Traverse County.
Before going any further, you must know that Taiwan’s political system is dominated by 2 camps. The Pan-Blue coalition is headed by the Kuomintang. The KMT had been the longtime ruling party of the Republic of China, producing noted figures like Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek.
Governor Tony Evers in Wisconsin (just barely) outran Governor Phil Murphy in New Jersey.
What a difference the prevailing political environment and style of candidates make.
Good time we take a look at what happened to JD Vance’s “spiritual mountain home”, Jackson’s Breathitt County the last time Andy Beshear was on the ticket. This is the heart of the Kentucky Appalachia, where coal ruled and Trump rules. And, so does Andy.
Doug Mastriano has announced he will NOT Bob Casey for PA’s Senate seat. Nevertheless, we will still look at the county which birthed the Casey family institution, and where Joe Biden was born in 1942. We are in the heart of WWC North-eastern PA: Scranton’s Lackawanna County.
No long writeup with lots of maps today, but I have uploaded a new US House precinct map to Wikipedia. In 2022, moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick won re-election to his Bucks County seat by 10 points despite statewide GOPers crashing in the Philly suburbs.
Tories LOSE majority control of East Hertfordshire Council. Absolutely crippling losses for the Tories. 48/50 seats declared, and Greens are the largest party. They started the night with 1 councillor. They have 17 now. Everybody other than Tories gained seats.
Lots of things happened yesterday with the Trump indictment, and just in time, I have a new map. Today, we will be discussing the strong rightward trends in recent years among Hispanic voters along the Mexican border. For this, we are in the Grand Canyon State, in Yuma County.
Part 2:
We are now in Benzie County, a very small rural county in the Cherry Coast, where one of the most shocking Michigan results in 2022 happened. Gretchen Whitmer, Jocelyn Benson and Dana Nessel all won it.
This is a deep red and heavily white suburban county outside of Jackson. Trump won it by 52 in 2016 and 45 in 2020. Reeves won it by 30 in 2019.
By how much does Reeves win it next week?
Following Taiwan’s transition to democracy, the Pan-Green coalition gained in support, headed by the Democratic Progressive Party. The DPP strongly believes in a Taiwanese identity and support the idea of an independent Taiwan state, hence their rejection of the 1992 Consensus.
The Kuomintang leans centre-right, and advocates for more cordial relations with the mainland, accepting the 1992 Consensus which spelt out the “One China Policy” that Taiwan is a part of China. This principle has formed the bedrock of ROC-PRC relations.
Part 1:
Welcome back, folks. On April 10, PA Senator Bob Casey announced his re-election bid. As we await confirmation from Doug Mastriano about his running, we come to an area in Pennsylvania that has seen dramatic political shifts in recent years: Cumberland County.
Folks, I’m running for re-election.
There’s still more work to do to cut through the gridlock, stand up to powerful special interests, and make the lives of hardworking Pennsylvanians easier.
The map is back, and I’m not done yet.
Nicholas County is a tiny, rural county near Lexington. Very fascinating place indeed. Was Trump+41 in 2016 and Trump+42 in 2020. But the pro-choice side scored an unbelievable 19-point win there. Beshear narrowly won it by 1 in 2019.
How does he do there next week?
Sorry repost because of a typo. How are the Hispanic population in red different from the Hispanic population in green? Very Hispanic, but have vastly different voting patterns.
After the Trump era, Dems have slid massively in their former heartlands, WWC areas. Depending on how you lean, these maps can either bring you unbridled satisfaction or unimaginable anguish. But here we go, Youngstown’s Mahoning County: 2022 Gov and 2022 Senate.
Part 2:
However, there was one Dem in Macomb who did not have a good night: Carl Marlinga in Michigan 10th. In a massive heartbreak for Dems, former 2018 and 2020 GOP Senate nominee John James narrowly eked out a 0.5% victory.
I know there aren't elections in Arizona, but I have finished and uploaded a new Congressional map. In one of the closest House races in the country, incumbent GOP Rep David Schweikert narrowly clung to AZ01, a rapidly left trending suburban seat in Maricopa County.
We now come to Northeastern MS, a hotbed of a particular kind of
#ancestraldems
: Dixiecrats. This is Lee County, Presley’s home base, where Nettleton straddles the border with Monroe County. I included Presley’s 2015 election to show you what kind of margin he was capable of.
Raphael Warnock holds the Senate formerly held by legendary Conservadem Zell Miller. If Miller was alive in the 2021 runoff and 2022 general election, how would he have voted? Would he back Warnock twice?
The Kuomintang finds their strongest support among mainland Chinese immigrants who fled after 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party took power in the mainland. The ethnic Han Chinese who speak Mandarin and Hakka are often considered to form the core of the party’s support.
The KMT also draws strong support from Taiwan’s aboriginal population. Throughout history, many of them had faced discrimination from existing Hokkien-speaking settlers who came during the imperial period.
Part 2:
Aside from Congressional races, local state legislature battles are perhaps more important as they are much closer to people and have a more direct impact on them. With Dems narrowly winning the State House, every seat counted. Today, we talk about one of them: HD103.
This is the reason why KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu bested Tsai in the northwestern counties of Miaoli and Hsinchu, which has a very high share of Chinese from the Hakka dialect group. 64% of Miaoli County is Hakka, and 84% in Hsinchu County.
In one of the most shocking performances of 2026, Democrat
@DJBranham
of Pittston overwhelmingly won this right trending NEPA seat, after longtime incumbent Matt Cartwright retired. Branham won even in a red wave 2026 midterm.
Erie is a heavily Democratic working-class city on the Lake Erie coast, and Erie County is mainly divided between Erie and the increasingly Republican WWC towns to the south and east.
The KMT settlers who came to Taiwan from 1949 forged relations with the aboriginal population, who mostly live in the mountains in Eastern Taiwan, becoming a so called “iron vote” for the KMT. This article explains more:
Wow. I just noticed with more numbers in, Brandon Presley flipped Trump+12 Grenada County by a whopping 7 points. Jim Hood lost it by 1.8 in 2019. This is a winning pace, but unfortunately for Presley was not replicated everywhere.
He also cracked 47%, and outran Hood by 0.5%.
Josh Shapiro got more raw votes in 2022 than Hillary Clinton 2016.
In fact, he got more raw votes than her in all 3 of his statewide runs, and also got more raw votes than Biden in 2020.
Waukesha is ground zero for the so-called “Walker Machine” that has given conservative firebrand, Gov. Scott Walker his victories. This is one of the powerfully GOP suburb anywhere in the US. But trends are still coming. In 2022, despite his loss, Barnes outran Evers 2018 here.
Waukesha County, long a suburban Republican stronghold, has been trending leftward at an astonishing rate. Going from the very red 2014 to the very blue 2018, the 12% swing left made sense. But going from the very blue 2018 to the pretty red 2022, another 13% swing was shocking.
Attention must also be given to the Taipei metro, where 1/3 of the population lives in. Taipei, New Taipei and Keelung are ancestrally Pan-Blue, and still is downballot, where the KMT remains the largest party in the Taipei and New Taipei City Councils.
In fact, ever since direct Presidential elections began in 1996, no DPP candidate has ever won the 3 cities in the Taipei metro and the city of Taoyuan to the west until Tsai Ing-wen did it in incredible fashion in 2016, and again in 2020 as pictured, by double digits.
The DPP, on the other hand, appealed strongly to liberals and Hokkien-speaking ethnic Chinese who live mainly in the south, in cities like Kaohsiung and the historic capital of Taiwan, Tainan. Tainan also happens to be VP William Lai’s hometown, where he used to serve as mayor.