Scott Thornton
@scottythorn21
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Football bets and analysis. Content for @oddschecker @bettingexpert @bettingoddsuk @copybetuk_ire @sbk All content and props model access⬇️
Joined January 2012
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Pinned Tweet
Free bets channel for the new season -
I’ll share some tips, stats, early article links for all of my content in here
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We see a lot of good bets shared on Twitter but I’d love to see some horrific bets.
Share any shocking slips you have. I’ll start…
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I’ve seen some funny stunts pulled by bookmakers but this one is up there.
£67 loss on a winning bet. A guaranteed loss as soon as it was placed
So after correctly predicting Nicolai Hojgaard to be one of 6 Ryder cup picks,
@WilliamHill
have settled my bet as a dead heat. £100 returned £33.33, great profit I know.
Look at the chats attached to see the incompetence of these people.
RT to hold them accountable!!!
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1K
4K
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2K
Manchester United have conceded 100 shots across 5 Premier League matches in 2024.
Manchester City have conceded 197 all season.
Great for overs betting
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Seen a few James Bond bets in the thread but this is the best by far.
Wes Morgan as 007
@scottythorn21
Did this nearly 5 years ago and was funny for a while but it's haunting me now seeing it in my open bets constantly. Even tweeted sky bet a couple years ago to settle it as a loss just to get rid but they wouldn't!
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54 throws and 19 Manchester United goal kicks in the 0-0 draw earlier this season.
43 throws and 16 United goal kicks in the last head-to-head at Old Trafford.
So many other factors to consider but I’ve seen worse 66/1
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Plenty of shot lines calculated across the major leagues.
I’ll share another free bet with a long shot option tomorrow🤞⬇️
(I’m supposed to ask for 1 like or something)
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Just logged in to an old Sky Bet account. Don’t think I’ve ever seen a free bet age so horribly😂
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Lands as well✅
Doubled it up with one of my
@bettingexpert
matches for a long shot.
Read about that angle here -
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I will make a free Telegram for the Euros as a trial this evening and write a brief about what you can expect in there.
A major tournament seems the perfect opportunity to test it after the feedback received last month.
In recent week I’ve had a few DM’s about starting a free Telegram for my bets.
Some people miss the alerts on Twitter and therefore prices. Telegram may make it easier for some of you.
Which should I use?
As much feedback as possible on your preference would be appreciated
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Free month to one person who RT’s and likes this post (subscription refunded if already paid).
Sign ups now available at for the new season.
Send proof of payment and your Telegram name to
@JaysBettingClub
via DM. Numbers capped. Details below⬇️
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“Do the ayatollah babe, haha only messing. I miss you. Been thinking about you ever since I got here xx.”
@joeewilliams14
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Scotland get battered everywhere they go coming out as soon as two Scots bet on the stage. Awful patter and a bloody awful football song that’s sung by half of the English pyramid
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Free twitter bets this weekend⬇️
Man Utd vs Everton - Throws U 39.5
1.80✅
Gillingham vs Leicester - Throws
O 49.5 - 6.50✅
O 55.5 - 21.00✅
Cardiff vs Leeds - Throws
O 50.5 - 3.50✅
O 60.5 - 19.00✅
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Lots of shorter odds bets from me lately as I trial out the new model, but the success rate has been remarkable. Plenty more to come and the volume will gradually increase. Lovely to see all the messages of people who got on👍
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I’m out, but it landed of course
Told
@CBKTeam
posted this too so follow them👍
Not letting prep go to waste.
Blackpool vs Oxford
Blackpool Over 6.5 Goal Kicks & Oxford Over 12.5 Free Kicks (1 unit)
Bet 365 - 2.05
Odds are correct. Value stems from playoff and game state. Detail below.
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If the Bundesliga taught me anything after lockdown, it’s that David Wagner and Schalke are rubbish. Tremendous low quality all over the pitch
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Since I started tracking my tweeted bets only on April 21st.
+15 units. 34.4% ROI
56 bets. 58.9% strike rate.
Avg stake 0.78.
£750 profit off £50 units.
Avg stake will jump to 1.5-2u next season with an optimal stake pattern, should inflate returns. Volume to increase too
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EURO 2020 Telegram Link -
I will post a couple of pre tournament fancies as some fun to follow, but I’ll be sticking to my stats bets largely.
Guys like
@TomLove_18
will give you the best shouts before the tournament...1/2
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Back by popular demand, the lads are sacking off their families to put together a Boxing Day acca
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New bet builder features on 365 mean I can now combine the majority of my bet types. Could be a game changer going forward
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Both land with plenty of time to spare
Leeds’ away matches this season are averaging 51.89 throws per game this season.
Leeds’ 2 cup games this season have seen 60 & 59 throws.
Cardiff’s last 4 home cup matches; 47, 45, 59 & 62 throws.
Highest lines I’m taking⬇️
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Solid end to the domestic season since the tweeted bet tracker.
61 bets. 48.55 units staked.
19.7 units profit. 40.6% ROI
0.80 avg stake. 24.6 x avg stake profit.
A platform for next season. Aim is to increase volume. Increasing profit more important than ROI (which will fall).
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This lands
Price has shortened from 2.10 to 1.90. Had this prepped and still would take the price.
Will post them earlier next season with same level of detail. People like to see the stats.
Villarreal vs Man Utd
Villarreal O 7.5 Goal Kicks (1u)
Bet 365 - 1.90
Correct Odds - 1.73
+EV 10%
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Bet lands. 40 minutes to spare
B’mouth had 9 GK’s when Brentford for chasing in the last leg 2nd half.
Last 3 H2H B’mouth GK numbers - 10, 11, 9
B’mouth Over 9.5 Goal Kicks
Bet 365 - 2.00 (1u)
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76
The experienced players that were withdrawn to allow kids to take penalties there is utterly bonkers
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Winner
Blackpool vs Lincoln
Over 30.5 Total Free Kicks(1u)
Bet 365 - 1.83
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Let’s finish the domestic season on a high then. One more weekend for bets until the Euros
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Yeah I was talking bollocks lads. It won...of course
Brentford vs Swansea
Brentford Over 14.5 Free Kicks & Swansea Over 7.5 Goal Kicks
Bet 365 - 2.15(1u)
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12
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Lands with 20 minutes to spare
Forest Green vs Newport
Over 27.5 Total Free Kicks (1u)
Bet 365 - 1.80
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12.7 units up over the last month off my tweeted bets only, 0.77u avg stake. x 16.5 profit on avg stake.
51 bets. 32.6% ROI
£635 profit off £50 units.
An optimal staking pattern which increases amount of units staked and more volume to come next season after further analysis.
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I laid my mum to rest last week.
50 years ago Hammersmith Hospital saved her and she lived happily until very recently.
My family took donations for the hospital at the funeral but you can contribute here if you’re looking for a Christmas good deed👇
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Italy O 59.5%✅
Turkey O 8.5 GK’s✅
2/2
Won’t be tracking results game by game as there will be ebbs and flows. But lovely to have a clean sweep start with the tournament Telegram.
We look to be carrying on from where we left off the club season!
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Bring this back for the weekend? The acca with with this group of fine people. We only did it once and it fell at the last hurdle🥴
Most followers took a big cashout mind
Here is today’s group ACCA with the boys!
@JimmyThePunt
@DeanWoodward93
@scottythorn19
@MaccasValueBets
&
@blandc_1996
📚58.76 - Bet365
Justifications of our selections coming up. Who lets us down?👀🤣
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Winner!
Perfect example of not getting carried away and trusting the numbers long term for profit. Bad runs happen and sometimes games don’t go how they should.
First half and second half are polar opposites. A great indicator of how betting can go in just one game
Bournemouth vs Brentford
Bournemouth Over 7.5 Goal Kicks
Bet 365 - 2.00 (1 unit)
Correct Odds - 1.79
+EV 12%
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14
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Sorry lads. I did it again, chatting bollocks. It won
Morecambe vs Newport
Over 26.5 Total Free Kicks (1u)
Bet 365 - 1.83
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Gambling laws are set to change in the UK in 2021 for the first time in 15 years. A lot of it is to promote safer gambling, but let’s hope account limitations are on the agenda as well. Bookmakers happy to take thousands off losers and won’t take moderate stakes off those who win
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Well, well
Drifted to 2.37. Ive placed again and cashed out the initial. If you want to replace don’t click on the game in the featured tab, click on the game elsewhere or the throws won’t appear in the builder
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This should never be 800/1. Throw ins landed easily last meeting and Leipzig should be letting the shots fly. It’s a longshot but 800/1 is far too long and I’m a dreamer
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I’ll be teaming up with
@JaysBettingClub
at the start of next season and tipping for his premium service.
More information can be found in the google doc and exact details on Jays Twitter. Any questions from now until, then feel free to ask both of us👍
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If the Euro markets are extensive, it is likely I’ll trial a free Telegram on the back of this poll I ran a few weeks ago.
All bets would be added to the spread. The focus being to increase volume and not obsess over ROI. The best guys on here show that volume is the way to go.
In recent week I’ve had a few DM’s about starting a free Telegram for my bets.
Some people miss the alerts on Twitter and therefore prices. Telegram may make it easier for some of you.
Which should I use?
As much feedback as possible on your preference would be appreciated
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Football is a simple game. 22 men kick a ball around for 90 minutes and Daniele Orsato gives half of them a card
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57 throws in the end. Both bets land!
If you want to track throws Inplay they’re in the 365 timeline under show more.
I wouldn’t bother checking it too closely though. Football occurrences are random and it can come in flurries
Gillingham’s two matches vs Dag & Redbridge in the last round saw 53 & 57 throws.
The last time they took on PL opposition in the FA cup there was 72 throws (home to West Ham in 2020).
Leicester’s last 5 away cup matches are averaging 50.2 throws.
Highest lines I’m taking⬇️
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Everyone cleaning up on Wijnaldum. Things you absolutely love to see
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Lands with half hour to spare. Slowed down second half but still at a canter
White as a centre back in a back four should rack up the passes. Dunk his defensive partners passing line is 20 higher. Barring an early lead for Brighton I expect this to be comfortable
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7.1 units up in just over a week off tweeted bets only. Don’t even think we’ve been luck, unlucky if anything. £355 off £50 units
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Been trialling a model for daft football games. Safe to say, I’m excited about next season in terms of volume after the results
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Brentford vs Swansea
Brentford Over 14.5 Free Kicks & Swansea Over 7.5 Goal Kicks
Bet 365 - 2.15(1u)
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If they’re going to offer these markets and the tackles/shots markets on Euros builders, I’m very confident of a successful tournament.
Slight concern that the data would be too skewed because of the length of time. There’s plenty there to go off though
Actually might have been correct as there was a goal kick take prior to the TAA booking. As long as it’s physically taken if stands.
Settling as a winner.
Withdraw your funds just in case
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9 at HT. Bournemouth you require 1 goal kick
B’mouth had 9 GK’s when Brentford for chasing in the last leg 2nd half.
Last 3 H2H B’mouth GK numbers - 10, 11, 9
B’mouth Over 9.5 Goal Kicks
Bet 365 - 2.00 (1u)
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This is potentially massive. We need the UK government to follow
Spain court rules against sportsbooks' limits/bans.
"The betting houses turn what are games of chance into a round business for them, in which either the house always wins or, the few times it loses, they throw the customer out and everything is solved."
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This lands
Smaller stake because of the very low +EV. Both teams averages justify the bet more and that information is attached.
Tranmere vs Morecambe
Over 16.5 Match GK’s (0.5 units)
Bet 365 - 1.80
Correct Odds - 1.76
+EV 2%
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14
2
50
Lands with relative ease. 20 at HT sees us through
Previous League One play-off free kick counts by match
19/20 - 37, 36, 44, 35, 32
18/19 - 34, 20, 34, 52, 37
17/18 - 23, 37, 31, 31, 46
Over 29.5 Total Free Kicks (1 unit)
Bet 365 - 1.83
Price is correct according to model. Banking on play-off trends. Reasoning below
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Torrential rain for the trick or treaters, you love to see it
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Hope everyone is over their hangovers. On to club football now and preparing the necessary data and building some new models for the new season. Here’s to a very profitable one🤞
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At least two bets tonight. Likely to be a few more than that
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Sorry, phone ran out of battery. Of course it landed
Same as the last game.
Newport vs Forest Green
Over 26.5 Total Free Kicks (1 unit)
Bet 365 - 1.83
The model has this line bang on again, but don’t think 365 have taken into account the play-off factor as much as they should.
Breakdown of League Two numbers below. Good ref
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The weekend Premier League props for
@bettingexpert
went well.
Just shy of 33/1 for the six✅
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I follow a load of quality lads on here who’ve been smashing it all the season. Best of luck to everyone who’s getting on the various bets🤞
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Told
@CBKTeam
posted this too so follow them👍
Not letting prep go to waste.
Blackpool vs Oxford
Blackpool Over 6.5 Goal Kicks & Oxford Over 12.5 Free Kicks (1 unit)
Bet 365 - 2.05
Odds are correct. Value stems from playoff and game state. Detail below.
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It’s a friendly so only a small play, but the numbers are promising.
England Over 12.5 Free Kicks & England Over 16.5 Throw Ins & Austria Over 6.5 Goal Kicks (0.5 units)
Bet 365 - 2.37
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Biggest takeaway from the Rooney doc; “I’d cheat for that club to win”. Not enough players with that elite mentality left.
Proper shithouses like Ramos & Suarez are the last of a dying breed.
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@MichaelWalsh44
Good call on Leicester. You’re allowed to be ambitious when it comes to your own team
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Who’s still with myself,
@DeanWoodward93
@JimmyThePunt
@MaccasValueBets
@TipKingBets
and
@blandc_1996
?
Onto the final leg of week one of our acca. Bowen shots, he’s having a fitness test ahead of the game
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England vs Romania
England Over 12.5 Free Kicks & Romania Over 7.5 Goal kicks (0.5 units)
Bet 365 - 2.37
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Prices are holding a lot better in the Telegram when compared with Twitter. Very encouraging going forward
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This and the Antti Niemi phone call will always be funny
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Football is a simple game. 22 men kick a ball around for 90 minutes and Daniele Orsato gives half of them a card
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Everyone on Twitter wanting Ronaldo to take his shirt off when he breaks the record after then?
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Will likely have a bet for the England game tonight.
May have a dabble on another sport in the day for some fun (that won’t be spread).
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No hangover. 2 bets, 2 winners. The sun is out and we go again
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I’ve had a drink and I’m too drunk to justify my bet. Still worth it or no?
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Roll on Friday. Get the Euros started and pray for a full list of prop markets
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VAR has made football so boring. Ruined limbs, probably the only universally liked aspect of football
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Eriksen scared me a bit so leaving it at 2/2 for today. We go again tomorrow
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Darts is much better for having people like Price and MVG behaving like whoppers when they hit 140/180s. The abuse is daft
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Leeds’ away matches this season are averaging 51.89 throws per game this season.
Leeds’ 2 cup games this season have seen 60 & 59 throws.
Cardiff’s last 4 home cup matches; 47, 45, 59 & 62 throws.
Highest lines I’m taking⬇️
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This won as well no?
I’ve bet this because I’d normally give you a write up, but I cannot be arsed. I think it’s value and it’s the last game of the season though. We’ve already had a winner today
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Me - Wood O 2.5 shots
@TipKingBets
- Mings O 0.5 tackles, Villa O 11.5 FK’s
@DeanWoodward93
- Bale O 1.5 shots
@JimmyThePunt
- Brighton vs West Ham O 2.5 Goals
@MaccasValueBets
- Palace U 2 Goals & Roma vs Lazio bet builder.
Everyone will post their justifications separate
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Leicester vs Spurs
Spurs Over 7.5 Goal Kicks (1 unit)
Bet 365 - 2.25
Correct Odds - 2.13
+EV 6%
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The last two good bets I posted lost in the most ridiculous fashion and then this bit of fun lands. One of those stupid weeks so far
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Southampton are averaging over 8 goal kicks per game in their last five meetings with Leicester. Had success backing Leicester opponents GK’s on Monday, we go again.
Southampton vs Leicester
Over 6.5 Southampton Goal kicks
Bet 365 - 2.20
Correct Odds - 2.06
+EV 7%
0.5 Units
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40