Scott Willis
@scottjwillis
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Soccer | Arsenal | Stats | Stats Guy and a Civilian | Cannon Stats
Joined May 2011
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Pinned Tweet
Aston Villa vs Arsenal: The Debrief
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@ThePeakSanti
That doesn’t make them any less American. It’s kind of insinuating that they are less because of that and it just isn’t true.
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Aaron Ramsdale ranked 40th out of 42 Premier League goalkeepers in Goals saved compared to Post Shot xG, allowing 4.6 more goals than expected based on the locations for an 'average' goalkeeper. He ranked 200th out of 218 in the big five leagues combined.
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Arsenal's average shot distance was 14.2 yards. That is the third closest average shot distance that Manchester United have allowed this season. This was from 25 shots, with just 5 from outside the box.
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Pepe does things no one else on this Arsenal team can do
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Europa League Final 2019 Baku
Capacity 64,000
Arsenal: 6,000
Chelsea: 6,000
UEFA is far from the defenders of the fans.
Champions league final 2019 Madrid.
Capacity 69,000
Liverpool 16,600
Spurs 16,600
Get off ya high horse with ya fan/customer shouts please.
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This stuff is so disingenuous. Money is obviously a major factor and to pretend it isn't just makes us think you look at us like idiots.
Manchester City have the most expensive squad acquired (at least through last full accounts), have spent 1.2 billion on players under Pep,
Pep Guardiola on the Premier League: “It’s boring? It’s not. Before, it was money. If that’s the reason, Man United should have won ALL the titles. Second, Chelsea. Third, Arsenal. They’ve spent much more in the last five, six years than us, net spend.”
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This is 100% the type of situation where if Arsenal can improve on Xhaka it leads to potentially more goals
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Arsenal have made 6 changes and still look like Arsenal
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Arsenal really went 16-1-1 scoring 54 goals and allowing just 9 in 2024. That's still wild to me.
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52 - Touches in the box for Arsenal against Wolves.
CAMPING
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The Ben White missed chance feels like it was a sliding doors moment right now
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England Pass Network - England vs Switzerland
What is Kane doing here?
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Arsenal have won 29 points at home this season, they won just 28 last year. They are 8 net goals better (4 more scored and 4 less conceded). Good to see a return to defending home ground.
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24 - The total number of seconds between the balling being out of play and when the card was shown to Takehiro Tomiyasu.
The average time to take a throw in, in this match was 19 seconds with 6 incidents longer than Tomiyasu's yellow card.
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Arsenal created more xG at the Etihad than Liverpool did and got the same amount of points
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Arsenal created the most xG this weekend of any team in the Premier League
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Burnley attempted 40 crosses against Arsenal. They completed 9, with 6 turning into shots. Overall Arsenal handled that well.
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Look at all the people not celebrating here
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Arsenal have the 4th hardest remaining schedule,
Manchester United have the 5th hardest.
Spurs have the 12th hardest
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Chelsea's purchases compared to the current Transfer Markt estimated value (or sale price)
-€ 325,850,000.00
YIKES
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Arsenal have the 17th hardest remaining schedule.
Manchester City have the 12th hardest remaining schedule.
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2nd most points, 12th best xG difference.
That's Unai
Arsenal are the only side to earn more points than Aston Villa since Unai Emery's return to the Premier League 😲
#LEIAVL
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Top 4 odds after the North London Derby:
Arsenal win: Arsenal 100%, Spurs 0.2%
Draw: Arsenal 91%, Spurs 9%
Arsenal loss: Arsenal 55%, Spurs 47%
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I would sell Tierney for 50m in a heartbeat.
He's a good player but not elite and the trouble staying on the field is a killer for planning.
He played just 54% of the available Premier League minutes this year. 67% last year. 29% in 19/20
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As it is the start of transfer season I have done an update to my transfer inflation calculator. These are the biggest ever transfers adjusted for Transfer Inflation.
The Rio Ferdinand move in 02/03 is crazy at today's price.
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*Whispers*
This was a 5% chance that he created out of nothing and far from a GREAT chance missed.
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Emile Smith Rowe has 8 goals from 25 shots, and 16 on target.
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Because it is celebration/propaganda time:
Premier League Team Tiers over the last 10 matches played.
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Crazy stat: Jorginho played a little more than 20 minutes with extra time and led Arsenal with 9(!!!) progressive passes.
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Martin Ødegaard ranks 7th in the Premier League in Shot Creating Actions per 90, with 4.36
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When Oleksandr Zinchenko is on the field Arsenal have a +8.1 shot differential, +1.1 xG differential, and +1.46 Goal differential.
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51 - Times that Bukayo Saka has been fouled this season. 4th most in the Premier League, 2.9 per 90
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I hope sticking to the 'Arsenal Way' and not signing players currently going through the legal system accused of committing sexual assault.
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Vinícius Júnior-2023-2024 vs Bukayo Saka-2023-2024, Attacking Midfield & Winger Template, Crab Cake
This Saka kid is pretty good.
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Marcus Rashford-2022-2023 vs Gabriel Martinelli-2022-2023, Forward Template, Crab Cake
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Premier League Team Tiers.
Left is over the last 10 weeks, right is full season.
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I want to see talented players do fun things at Arsenal. I am excited by the idea of Martin Odegaard playing for Arsenal again.
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@InvertTheWing
You probably should just delete your account like you said you were doing
I have put my money where my mouth is. I have said I will delete my account if Postecoglou does not make Top 4.
I am confident.
I will stop tweeting about similar things until the season starts, due to large amounts of hate.
From now, I will focus on tactical aspects of such
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It is a hard choice
If you genuinely think Arsenal have no world class players then you’re basically saying Arteta is the best coach in the world considering his team is up there with Pep’s and Klopp’s
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Smith Rowe has had a really disappointing second half of the season. I don't know if ever really looked fully fit, he seemed to lose a lot of the drive on the ball.
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20th - Manchester United have played the easiest schedule since the Premier League has resumed from the World Cup. They have played 6 home matches (4 away) and just 2 teams in the top half.
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Arsenal vs Rapid Wien, Arsenal Passing Network Full Match
This is a much better passing network
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Comparing Arsenal's Running xG from the Unai Emery unbeaten run and the Areta Unbeaten run.
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@MoeSquare
Thinking the same thing for Crystal Palace. They won't even have the benefit of making Europe to help. It sucks sometimes to teams picked apart.
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This is the 20th time Manchester United have given up 16 or more shots in the Premier League. Arsenal have given up 16 shots ZERO times this season in the PL.
Crazy
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I dislike this Newcastle team. They are very fouly and it feels like they get away with so much.
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Only Manchester City (985) and Liverpool (823) have spent more minutes winning this season than Arsenal (737).
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There is a subset of Arsenal fans that still pine for Unai Emery and I just can’t wrap my head around that view
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Thomas Partey vs Albert Sambi Lokonga - Comparison Radar
It really does feel like Arsenal said to their data guys, go find me the closest under 23 player to Partey.
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Premier League team tiers over the last 10 matches played for each team
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Bukayo Saka - Arsenal 2023-2024 Attacking Midfield & Winger radar and distribution
This is the player of the season, and it really shouldn't be that close even if others have a case to be made.
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Mohamed Elneny played a higher percentage of his passes forward than Thomas Partey, that goes against the
#narrative
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Granit Xhaka vs Manuel Locatelli - Comparison Radar
This is probably the dream upgrade to do.
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Manchester City are 1 point better this season for the corresponding fixtures. I would not have expected that given the narrative that they aren’t as good.
They also picked up all 27 points last year for the remaining fixtures 🫣
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Bukayo Saka compared statistically to Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, and Mohamed Salah. These are four good players no doubt, and trying to find major differences in who is better is tough and probably comes down to preferences for what you want in a player and not skill/talent.
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All of these teams went on runs similar to Arsenal in 2024 and have big leads in their league. That is Arteta’s point. These teams didn’t get there going 6-2-2 over and over. That’s not a lie, you just missed the point.
This is a lie.
In Spain you’d be 7 points behind Real Madrid. They’re 25 league games unbeaten.
In Germany, you’d be 8 points behind Leverkusen. They’re 29 league games unbeaten.
In Italy you’d be 12 points behind Inter. They’ve lost just 1 of their last 34 league games.
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Albert Sambi Lokonga vs Matteo Guendouzi - Comparison Radar
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I was just aimlessly browsing data and saw something that surprised me. Arsenal have 1 more open play big chance than Liverpool this season. You would not expect this from the way the teams are talked about with the attacks.
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Harry Kane has taken more shots in January (17) than Alexandre Lacazette has all season (15).
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My level of concern with how washed Partey looks is getting uncomfortably high.
I can tell myself it is preseason as mech as I want but this is not good
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This is probably going to be my weekly thing until it gets old
Granit Xhaka-2022-2023 vs Kai Havertz-2023-2024, Midfield Template
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#Arsenal
has 3 players in the top 13 for Shot-Creating Actions per 90.
Martin Ødegaard (10th) - 4.76
Nicolas Pépé (11th) - 4.75
Bukayo Saka (13th) - 4.69
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Aston Villa 2 (0.3)-(3.3) 4 Arsenal
Not winning would have been tragic
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Thoughts from Preseason: Saka still good, White looked sharp. Saliba/Gabriel are very good.
Kiwior biggest stock rising.
Eddie might be done, Flo looked good and I really like him.
I'd like to not see anymore Cedric
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Happy 40th Birthday to Mikel Arteta.
He was an excellent (if underrated) midfieder for Arsenal.
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So, when I ran the different scenarios a United win is actually the best option for Arsenal's top 4 odds, followed by a draw.
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This is the sequence that I still don't know how Arsenal didn't score from
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17 - Touches in the box for Liverpool, the fewest they have had in a League match this season
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High flying spurs 22 goals
Haven’t clicked Arsenal 23 goals
🤣
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Martin Ødegaard, Performance Detailed - Arsenal vs Wolves
This is the Ødegaard Arsenal had been missing, 13 progressive passes! 6 key passes! 1.9 xA!
Oh and he added a goal too
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Dani Ceballos vs Donny van de Beek, Midfield Template
Ceballos is also well regarded by my new xTurnovers (0.5 less per 90) and rates at 57th percentile of my ball retention rating.
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Thr injury situation around the Premier League is pretty crazy
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It’s an imperfect measure but still interesting and is somewhat ballpark, the transfermarkt value of players missing:
Liverpool 196
Arsenal 193
Liverpool went to the Emirates without Salah, Szoboszlai, Matip, Endo, Bajcetic, Tsimikas and Bradley. Darwin, Robbo and Thiago were only fit enough for the bench while Trent, clearly not match fit, had to start.
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Remember when Saka got straight kicked with the ball no where near him and no red or yellow was given
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Arsenal Compared to Corresponding Fixtures Last Season
Points: 0 (58 vs 58)
xG: +3.2 (52.9 vs 49.7)
G: +1 (62 vs 61)
xGA: -7.6 (18.3 vs 25.9)
GA: -3 (23 vs 26)
xG Dif: +10.8 (+34.6 vs +23.8)
G Dif: +4 (+39 vs +35)
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Graham Potter and Mauricio Pochettino have managed the same number of PL matches at Chelsea
Potter 28 points, 0 GD
Pochettino 31 points, +1 GD
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Arsenal 0 (2.5)-(1.6) 2 West Ham
A fluke goal, a well taken corner and bad finishing luck.
Another day and this is a very different scoreline and story.
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Kobbie Mainoo's total fields gained in the Euros: -0.41
Broken down by third:
Def 3rd: -0.09
Mid 3rd: -0.67
Fin 3rd: 0.35
Yes you are reading that right that his passing + carrying takes England further away from goal in total aggregate.
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Martin Ødegaard stats against Leeds United
68.2% - Pass%
7 - Progressive Passes
4 - Box Entry Pass
5 - OP KP
1.7 - OP xA
2 - Shots
0.15 - xG
1 - Dribbles Completed
5 - Progressive Carries
6 - Progressive Passes Received
2.1 - xG Chain
1 - Tackles
9 - Ball Recoveries
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Nuno Tavares, Arsenal 2021-2022 Fullback Template, Radar
👀
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It is pretty crazy but
#Arsenal
are one point better currently than they were in the same fixtures last year. The attack is 2 goals (2.8 expected) worse but the defense is 3 goals (2 expected) better.
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Arsenal players showed great discipline early this season to avoid yellow card suspensions. They had key players on the cusp on those guys did great to see through it.
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Reiss Nelson has played well when given his chance this season. I made the comment I thought he might provide more value than Mudryk. The kid has talent.
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1.16 - Arsenal’s big chances conceded per match before the World Cup
2.08 - Arsenal’s big chances conceded per match after the World Cup
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I am still a bit shocked that this was a no call. The contact totally stops the intent to chop back and have the shot/pass option.
The little dive at the end probably didn't help the case.
I'd say this is a 60-70% penalty.
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The top 3 U25 Midfielders in Goal Probability Added were Martin Ødegaard, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice.
Two of those three now play for Arsenal.
Declan Rice - West Ham United 2022-2023 Midfield Goal Probability Added
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