Ryan Casselman
@ryan_casselman
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I make YouTube videos about the Oscars. I also just joined Twitter.
Los Angeles
Joined March 2022
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If you start The Holdovers tonight at 10:45 and 20 seconds exactly, as couples kiss around the world, you can share this moment with Paul Giamatti. You're welcome.
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The Color Purple has cannonballed into the Oscar race and making the biggest splash is it’s all-star cast. Taraji B. and Fantasia are both fantastic, but stealing the show is Danielle Brooks as Sophia. She just may be the new Best Supporting Actress frontrunner…
#TheColorPurple
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@cevangelista413
Universal Studios reading this tweet and seeing you predicted this exactly right, and have decided to try and last-minute pivot now:
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THIS is why I say if there's going to be a MAJOR snub this year, I'd guess Gerwig. I could see MANY in the Academy Directors branch (who nominated Ruben Östlund last year) sharing this sentiment.
Ruben Östlund did not like BARBIE:
“It perfectly describes the madness of our time. A toy manufacturer [Mattel] finances their own film & buys off an American auteur filmmaker to make their very old-fashioned dolls more presentable [..] I didn’t like it”
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Literally everyone saying the Color Purple is done before the film even hit theaters. Watch the word of mouth kick this film across the goal post now. What else is going on this week? Oh. That’s right. SAG & PGA nomination voting.
With $18 million, "The Color Purple" had the largest Christmas Day opening for a film since 2009, and the second-biggest Christmas Day opening of all time.
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If Oppy is sweeping the season and you feel like tweeting "I'm happy for Oppenheimer, buuuut the race is getting boring now." Please. Consider skydiving or get a van and chase tornados. Find ANYTHING else to fulfill your twisted need for chaos. I beg of you.
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Just in case people didn’t know… BAFTAS has NEVER nominated Alexander Payne in the Director category. Today would make his first. So yeah. If there is a number 2 to Oppenheimer, it’s looking like The Holdovers. So to that I say, I’d like to propose a toast…
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Imagine this…
PGA goes to Top Gun. DGA goes to Spielberg. Critics Choice and SAG Ensemble goes to EEAAO. Then BAFTAS go to Banshees of Inisherin. Think of the chaos that would cause.
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@AdriCaporusso
Yesterday I got some mail delivered to my mailbox. I mean …“I won “ some mail in my mailbox.
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Literally 2am in the morning. I rest my head and close my eyes… 😳
My brain: WHERE’S BENNETT MILLER?!
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The frontrunner for 'Most Overlooked Performance' of the year:
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Want some suspense for this coming Oscars? Since 2000, only ONE film has won Visual Effects WITHOUT a Production Design nomination over a film WITH a Production Design nomination.
This year, only ONE film in Visual Effects has that Production Design nomination...
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If I were going to guess today...
Golden Globes Drama - Oppenheimer
Golden Globes Comedy - Poor Things
Critics Choice - Oppenheimer
DGA - Oppenheimer
BAFTA - Oppenheimer
PGA - Oppenheimer
SAG Ensemble - The Color Purple
Oscars - Oppenheimer
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A24 has another winner on their hands. Dream Scenario is an absurd black comedy that recalls the first hour of Beau is Afraid and early Charlie Kaufman. Completely original and genuinely funny. No one commits like Nicolas Cage and this just might be top five Cage. A must see.
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I saw a screening of Saltburn yesterday. I can confirm that it is indeed the Babylon of this year. Both in its deviancy and how it’ll definitely rub many Academy members the wrong way, thus underrating it.
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I was curious how strong The Color Purple's chances at Best Picture was IF nominated by PGA & SAG Ensemble. Since 2012, five films missed BP despite being nominated by both guilds.
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Straight Outta Compton
Crazy Rich Asians
The Big Sick
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It's here! The Preferential Ballot Experiment video using real ballots! 😃 You'll probably guess the film that comes out on top, but there's a NEW addition to the experiment showing just how tight other races are. 🤯 Hope you all enjoy!
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I know this year is like abnormally competitive. But The Color Purple feels very Hidden Figures to me. Another late breaker. Missed AFI, didn't have a big impact at Golden Globes. Then went on to be nominated by PGA and SAG.
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If Barbie is winning SAG ensemble, why didn’t America Ferrera get in today? I seriously think American Fiction & Oppenheimer (both films that missed nothing today) stand a better chance.
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Just a heads up… There will be a delay on the SAG reaction video because I have to work today. The good news is, I’m working at the SAG Awards strangely enough! First time here. I’ll share my thoughts on winners tomorrow as well as any videos I happen to snag!
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The first day of my FIRST time ever at TIFF!!! Let the crazy week of watching movies and posting video reviews begin! Starting with Kitty Green’s The Royal Hotel.
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This is smart campaigning. Instead of screening The Whale, A24 is doing a SAG “Career Retrospective with Brendan Fraser.” They probably know Fraser talking about his career for 90 minutes is stronger than simply showing the film. And they are probably right. The event is full.
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I held on for as long as I possibly could. TCP was underrated in my opinion. A truly joyous film with an exceptional cast. Gone, but never forgotten🫡
WB marketing department. Da fuck.
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OK. Who was the person I saw on Twitter who predicted Brian Tyree Henry? I wanna buy you a beer. And for anyone who predicted both Riseborough AND Henry, I wanna buy you a brewery.
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I’ve arrived at
@sundancefest
🙂 My very first time attending!! So excited to be dropping reviews throughout the fest.
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I really hope Oppenheimer wins Best Motion Picture Drama AND Best Blockbuster Achievement…just to make Best Blockbuster look completely pointless.
EXCLUSIVE: The
#GoldenGlobes
will introduce two new categories to its upcoming January broadcast:
-Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
-Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy
Get the details:
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If those following the Oscars want to know what noms The Color Purple is likely to get, having now seen the film, I'd say from MOST likely to LEAST...
Supp Actress: Brooks
Best Picture
Supp Actress: Henson
Actress: Fantasia
Sound
Costume Design
Cinematography
Prod. Design
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Congratulations Oppenheimer. You just earned a few more Oscars.
DUNE: PART TWO has officially been delayed to March 15, 2024
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Best Picture is already signed, sealed, delivered. But the Acting race just got REALLY interesting! Let’s go!!!
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Here it is!! A brand new experiment to help predict ALL those tricky acting categories. In this video, I walk you through how the formula works. I hope you all enjoy it!! Follow-up video announcing this year's winners to come. 🙂
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Couldn't find time to film a Golden Globe predictions video, but I'll definitely react to the winners. Here are my predictions though! The biggest suspense for me is whether it'll be Poor Things or Barbie. Also, that Best Drama Actor category is veeery tough to call.
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Recently, I asked everyone to send in a ballot if they were voting for Best Picture. Hundreds of ballots have been collected and counted. The video announcing the winner will be premiering in 30 minutes!
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Admittedly, the 1985 adaptation did hit me harder emotionally, but this musical version takes a fresh new spin. It’s joyous, it’s slick, and A LOT of fun. It also looks fantastic visually. I would definitely put this in your Best Picture line up!
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Just a lil stat. When a Golden Globe winner in the Comedy/Musical category ALSO wins BAFTA or SAG, they usually win the Oscar. 2002 was the last time this didn't happen, when Renée Zellweger won GG Comedy + SAG, but lost the Oscar to Nicole Kidman.
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My yearly preferential ballot experiment video just dropped using ballots collected from people in the industry! I think we all have an idea of what film came in first. Any guesses on who came in second? 🙃
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Following Venice and TIFF, it’s time to update those predictions with the one and only
@LukeHearfield
!! It was a blast taking with Luke as we share our Oscar predictions in ALL major categories! 🤗
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I held off on sharing because I couldn’t fully believe it until now. This year will be the first time attending TIFF (an absolute dream come true). So I’ll be dropping video reviews throughout the fest! Words cannot describe how grateful and excited I am. 🙏🏼🤗
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I’m going to print this out and frame it.
Ryan’s killing it lately everybody go feed yourselves with his quality content
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I CANNOT drop The Zone of Interest from my BP lineup. The film is too important. Tár over performed last year. I think that shows that the current Academy membership (near doubled since 2012) has enough appreciators of art-house cinema to make it happen 🙏 Just thinkin' out loud.
Got to watch The Zone of Interest for the third time today (masterpiece) and listen to this Q&A with Glazer and his insanely innovative crew. Each of whom had to dive far outside of the conventions of their craft to convey the unspeakable.
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For those asking…The Oscar Stat Stack AND BP Ballot Experiment are underway. Thank you for your patience 🙂
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NOTE: This isn't to say I agree with Östlund btw. Hope that's obvious.
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@AdriCaporusso
Well, typically the criticism would happen behind closed doors/when they're marking their ballots. But I just read Paul Schrader liked Barbie and he's typically one that doesn't mince words. I wouldn't predict the snub, but wouldn't be shocked by it.
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I want to rewatch all the potential Best Picture nominees. BUT in order to be a good predictor, I feel like I must watch the films the same way in Academy voter would…Once and half asleep.
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One of these Christmas released musicals was a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination from the start. It got nominated by PGA & DGA, SAG gave it four nominations, BAFTA gave it nine, and the Golden Globes awarded it Best Film (Comedy/Musical)
The other was widely ignored.
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@expert_oscar
Knighted by the Oscar king himself. Seriously, you’re too kind. Thanks man. Coming from you, that’s a huge compliment. 🙂
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#Wonka
is likely what you’re expecting. The production design is fantastical! There’s some fun & catchy musical numbers. It’s all VERY SWEET... Maybe too sweet. Sadly, Chalamet feels miscast as Wonka. He’s likable and can carry a tune, but his version is too restrained imo.
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@Playbuck_PH
Agree wholeheartedly. I think Hsu, de Leon, Condon, Chau, and Hoss (or Bassett) would be a beautiful lineup.
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If All Quiet on the Western Front was an American film…it would be a top three Best Picture contender EASILY. Is it naive to think AQOTWF could come back strong and over-perform nomination morning much more than we are anticipating?
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It's looking like we're going to have some HEATED races in the acting categories this year. LUCKILY, I've been working on a NEW experiment to help predict those categories🙂 Posting tomorrow!
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Why is there still something nagging me that Ninety Five Senses is winning Animated Short? It’s a new Academy that went for Windshield Wiper just two years ago. If they’re gonna name check John and Yoko for War is Over, why won’t they name check Tim Blake Nelson?
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For a variety of reasons (from being at Sundance to WGA noms dropping after Oscar noms), I skipped the Best Picture nomination experiment. But
@TheHannahcast
still used the formula to see if it panned out. Pretty clear top 10 this year. Thanks Christian for making this!
Since he wasn't able to do it this year, I figured I should try out
@ryan_casselman
's insightful Best Picture experiment!
It's kinda crazy how clear the Best Picture race was even from this chart. Zone and Purple tied for 10th place but Zone literally had Globe drama & PGA.
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FINAL Oscar predictions with the "Stat Man"
@MarkLikesMovies
We breeze through the easy ones and get into the nitty gritty with the tough ones. Thanks Mark for doing predictions with me!!
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ALRIGHT. I'm waving the white flag. I'm switching to War is Over.
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Just wanted to update that the Preferential Ballot Experiment video is underway! 🙃
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I’ve been waiting for this day. Now that it came, I can officially say, I was dead wrong about The Color Purple. Breaks my 💔 I have to say. It’s just too competitive this year. I really can’t fault any of the nominees. Well, maybe one of them. Incredible lineup 👍🏻
Producers Guild of America nominees:
"American Fiction"
"Anatomy of a Fall"
"Barbie"
"The Holdovers"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Maestro"
"Oppenheimer"
"Past Lives"
"Poor Things"
"The Zone of Interest"
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To all those experiencing these great films at Telluride and Venice…I just want you to know, I’m TOTALLY not jealous. Nope. Not one bit.
In fact, I’m currently eating a fat, juicy In-N-Out burger. But I’m sure you have PLEEENTY of time to eat in between screenings.
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The newly revised Stat Stack just dropped!!! 🙂 The Ballot experience will be coming tomorrow. And considering doing a live stream to give Final Oscar Predictions on Saturday. 😅
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Big day for MGM. Rain Man is being released in some theaters today. With exception to Licorice Pizza, Rain Man was the last MGM film to be nominated for Best Picture... MGM's AMERICAN FICTION just won TIFF Audience! And 14 out of the last 15 winners went on to be nominated for BP
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Me: Nah. I don't tend to get too emotionally invested on who wins and loses an Oscar. It's all subjective.
Also me when I read anonymous ballots:
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Supporting Actress is the toughest of the night for me. Every winner will evoke a "WHOA!!" reaction. It's been said before, but I really do feel Bassett is the Stallone of the year. Picked up Globes and Critics, then SAG said "nah." Imo it's between Curtis and Condon…
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I’ve always been a fan of
@mrbrianrowe
To be asked to hop on his channel to talk SAG was an honor. Thanks for having me Brian! Check out our predictions and let us know who you’re predicting! 🙂
NEW VIDEO!
My final SAG predictions!!
With special guest Ryan Casselman!
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The results are in!!! 🙃This is a follow-up video announcing the winners from the Best Actor Formula. Some categories are no-brainers this year, but what about that Actress category? Does the formula give Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone the edge? 🤔
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The feeling you get when your last minute switch was wrong and the correct answer was the one you had for weeks before deciding to change. We’ve all been there…
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Here's my
#TIFF23
review for Richard Linklater's Hit Man! Or as my phone autocorrected it as... "Hot Man." I'll accept both titles as accurate.
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About to watch one of the last remaining Best Picture question marks left for the year. Been holding out believing The Color Purple HAS to be nominated. I’ll have a better idea in two hours. Very excited!
#TheColorPurple
#PurpleDiamondHands
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Air getting in Comedy or Musical over The Color Purple at Globes today feels pretty brutal. Especially considering there's maybe three laughs in Air. I wouldn't say The Color Purple is out for BP. The actors haven't spoken. But man. 10 slots and too many good movies this year.
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This is the first year I've done a reaction video for BAFTA. Finally figured out how to watch the show. Here are my reactions to the winners! I also share my thoughts on who'll now win at the Oscars! 🙂
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The first review of the first movie I saw at TIFF. Kitty Green's slow burn suspense drama, The Royal Hotel. More reviews coming soon!
#TIFF23
#TheRoyalHotel
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Sometimes I feel like a jury member listening to the Next Best Picture team plead their case. When
@howatdk
still stuck with 95 Senses, it was like that “I’m not leaving scene” in Wolf of Wall Street. I cheered. Great job NBP team as always.
If you've never listened to the
#NBPpodcast
before, I can't think of a better place to start than our mammoth FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS episode
Very proud of the work everyone puts into this each year
#Oscars
#Oscars2024
#Oscar
#AcademyAwards
#FilmTwitter
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I finally saw You Hurt My Feelings. And since my taste often resembles that of a fifty year-old woman in a Barnes & Noble, needless to say, I absolutely loved it. 👍🏻
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I may not know much. But I do know my Directors branch.
THIS is why I say if there's going to be a MAJOR snub this year, I'd guess Gerwig. I could see MANY in the Academy Directors branch (who nominated Ruben Östlund last year) sharing this sentiment.
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What 10 films will be nominated for Best Picture? I was struggling deciding those final spots, so I went ahead and created a new formula to help decide.🙂 Hope you all enjoy!
What films do you think will be nominated for Best Picture?
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From early word, looks like Alexander Payne directed his best movie since Sideways, Richard Linklater killed it with Hitman, then adding Scorsese’s KOTFM to the pile… this is shaping up to be an amazing year for my childhood heroes.
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If the police ever raid my home, I hope they aren’t suspicious of my creepy ziplocks full of actor heads.
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Just uploaded my review for Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest. Currently, my favorite film I’ve seen at
#TIFF23
so far.
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This was my first year at TIFF, so I'm still learning the ropes. Based on the vibes I was picking up at the fest though, these are my
#TIFF23
People's Choice Award predictions...
1. Sing Sing
2. The Holdovers
3. American Fiction
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Finally caught up with Poor Things! Stone’s performance is one that can be hyped up to the moon and you’ll STILL by astonished. Here’s our review + discussion on its Oscar potential. 🙂
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@SirJeffNelson
In terms of the type of movie, they are polar opposites. In terms of Best Picture potential, one is backed by a small movie studio and the other is backed by the largest company on the planet. The only similarity I see is they both have an ‘a’ in its name.
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Me: Stay back!… I’ll do it!. I have a Netflix Account and I know how to use it.
Roommate: Put the remote controller down.
Me: I cant…I’m curious.
Roommate: …. You do not need to do this.
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@Variety
Hit theaters four days before Halloween and streaming four days after Christmas. I thought studio heads liked making money.
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Definitely makes me nervous. Especially considering Ma Rainey, a film with a black cast & musical elements was sure to be nominated for BP, but somehow missed. Ma Rainey WON both SAG Actor & Actress awards. Mind blowing that it didn't get a BP nom.
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You don’t need to be Alan Turing to see the pattern here. 🤔
I was curious how strong The Color Purple's chances at Best Picture was IF nominated by PGA & SAG Ensemble. Since 2012, five films missed BP despite being nominated by both guilds.
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Straight Outta Compton
Crazy Rich Asians
The Big Sick
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First Oscar video posted for the 24’ season!
2024 Early OSCAR PREDICTIONS!!! (In ALL categories)
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Here are my much delayed reactions to the SAG winners last night! I knew there would be a surprise. I really wish I picked the right category tho 😂
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I’ve always loved Oscar nomination morning, even more than Oscar day. It’s a serious dopamine rush. Here’s my reactions to the nominations!
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@TheHannahcast
Maybe. Globes going for Poor Things over Barbie feels like a Globes thing to do (last year they picked Banshees over EEAAO).
I'm standing by the belief that Color Purple will resonate with actors. Purely speculation though of course.
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This was honestly the best still they could have chosen. Bening’s knowing expression is giving off “oooooh you thought I was gone, huh? Well… I know the world wants me to shut my mouth and sit down! BUT THERE’S NO ONE MORE NYAD THAN ME!! NO ONE!! Muahahaha!!!”
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People are really hammering the idea that FYC emails from studios influence voters way more than personal emails from friends. Look at your inbox. What emails are you likely to care about? McDonald's promoting their new Smoky Quarter Pounder? Or personal emails from friends?
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I should have shared this earlier... There were so many amazing films at
#TIFF23
Here were my favorites. 🙂
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Saltburn is already showing to be one of the year’s most divisive films. Here’s our review of Emerald Fennell’s latest 💦🚿😋 Where do you land?
Link to video posted below!
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My FINAL Oscar Predictions! Biggest Takeaway...I moved Women Talking to 10th, but stubbornly keeping it in.
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