Richard Brubaker
@richbrubaker
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sustainability, innovation, and leadership in Asia.
Shanghai
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Last Seen Profiles
While may be an amazing day in
#Shanghai
, clouds are forming:
1) Restrictions elevated again.
2) Most conversations I have w/ friends & neighbors involve exit plans
3) Businesses failing. No money. Layoffs looming. Stressed entrepreneurs
4) Out of butter
#fuckcovid
#lockdown
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I'm speaking w/ 30+ families planning their China exit.
For foreign families, primary concerns are cost of flights, getting to airport & school applications
For mixed/ Chinese families, it is the stress of getting Chinese parent/ kids out at all.
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Last night’s Christmas market in Shanghai was packed.
Given how few people were wearing masks, it’s clear there was a mix of the crazy brave and recently recovered.
Jiayou Shanghai. Jiayou.
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Pudong this morning.
Foreign exit line not even staffed.
Not gonna be that guy that says a couple of pictures mean anything, but I expected things to begin rebounding after summer.. and this data point isn’t exactly providing much support.
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Friendly reminder to friends in Shanghai.
It’s best to keep your phone away when around Anfu/ Wulu,
Should you see anything “interesting”, and try to capture the moment, risk of detainment is real.
This is true for foreigners as well.
As one gentlemen just found out.
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For anyone "watching" China, the next few weeks are going to be SUPER interesting as COVID takes hold.
Lot's of closures, and rumors of cities (Zhengzhou) trying to reposition.
I have not idea where it is headed, but numbers are going to climb and zero COVID will be tested.
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No better sign of Shanghai being open again than COSTCO.
It’s PACKED
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Earlier this evening, one of the signs from our street was removed.
Turning us into 404路 (inaccessible road).
15 minutes later, the internet made this more fun.
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Nice day exploring tulou houses outside Xiamen.
First time I saw them was 2002 on CCTV, and none of my teachers knew about these.
Impressive stories and architecture.
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In last 36 hours, 5 more families have told me they intend to leave China.
Reason why.
After 3 months of kids being home for spring lockdown, kids were sent home this week to make way for CIIE.
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After spending the majority of last year in testing lines, and showing my QR code to enter buildings, travel, or enter a restaurant, this resonates.
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Last night, group from our community decided to break through gate and walk to government office to lodge a protest.
This morning government sent representatives to "listen".
After 30-45 minutes, some commitments were made, and then the front doors were unlocked.
Progress.
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Everyday there are moving trucks in compound.
heard about 3 more families leaving just this morning. For a total of 10-12 in next 2 weeks
So yeah, I’d say the exodus of Chinese and foreign families is now in full effect.
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In a world where single data points prove the rule, I just took this picture of Avocado Lady.
pre-lockdown this was a store you could barely get into at 7pm.
Say what you will, but Shanghai is not “back”.
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Crowds started gathering again. Few attempted chants, but nothing holding (for now).
Police numbers growing, and traffic is being diverted.
Don’t see how crowd will be allowed to swell much more, but charging phone just in case
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Blue walls are coming down!
Wulumuqi road is open for business!
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In my 20+ yrs in China, this is most challenging economic, environment, and social period.
Beijing has no easy means to resolve most. Every decision difficult, w/ many reverberating globally.
For many, it's the most exciting time to be here.
For others, time to exit.
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Based on what I am able to see out the back window of my office, it's clear that Shanghai authorities are leaving nothing to chance tonight.
Me getting the bad vibes.
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New view at the local coffee shop this morning.
Feels a little more private with the wall.
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Wulumuqi Road is now a gated community.
Not sure how far/ wide, but includes Anfu road and parts of Changle
Hope it doesn’t last long…This is going to hurt a lot of areas shops.
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Shanghai streets are empty, and shops are closed.
Everyone either prepping for dinner, or have returned to hometown.
Quietest CNY in many years.
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It’s been 2.5 years since I’ve been to Pudong airport.
Stores and f&b largely closed, and the few restaurants that were open, all closed by 830.
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Intersection where largest crowds were last night.
Police are letting people out of area, not in, so crowd size is dwindling.
Doubt there will be a repeat of last night, but wouldn’t be surprised if something happened elsewhere in city.
Patience with COVID zero is wearing thin
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Schools are starting to close in Shanghai. Some for new testing requirements.
Others from too many teachers in lockdown.
At some point someone will realize how ridiculous Zero COVID is, and being building the off-ramp.
But today is not that day.
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Shocking image of Chongqing river shared by Dutch CG on LinkedIn this morning.
CQ is massive industrial base, but like neighboring Sichuan province, forced to shut down factories for up to a week to conserve water.
Is 2022 the year climate change becomes tangible in China?
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Picture of small vigil on Wulumuqi Road（乌鲁木齐路) morning the lives lost in Urumqi yesterday.
Outside of Sichuan earthquake in 2008, I cannot remember anything similar in downtown Shanghai.
Certainly not of something so sensitive.
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Just watched this driver have full blown panic attack when pulled over.
Clearly overworked & underpaid, he kept asking the cops to not give him a ticket.
At one point, he laid down in middle of road as a small crowd gathered.
Felt bad for him.
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Got out of Shanghai last weekend for a quick trip to Anji.
Only 2.5 hours from Shanghai, Anji has some amazing hikes through bamboo forests, great food, and it’s 10 degrees cooler.
Weren’t only ones escaping Shanghai, but tourism is clearly way off.
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Anfu road is BACK!
Never mind it was a ghost town yesterday, Shanghai is CLEARLY past the peak now.
Unless of course the 80% of people wearing masks are actually still “living in fear”
Oh whatever.
It’s the last day of 2022, and COVID is officially OVER!
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Amazing night for a walk around Shanghai.
Very few things open past 9pm, but Time Passage (Shanghai’s OG local pub) and Wulumuqi skewers were both doing a great trade.
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Just landed PVG.
Plane to car in 10 minutes.
No line at immigration, and even Chinese side was very light.
Not exactly what I expected given holiday weekend.
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Nothing better to do right now in China than visit tourist attractions.
Had an entire cave to myself today!
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Managed to make it 8 days before it hit.
Slept nearly 36 hours, but starting to feel human again.
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Over the last 12 months, Shanghai has seen typhoons, heat waves, and lock downs.
But what it really needed was a snowmagedden
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All gyms in Xuhui have apparently been told to close "to help prevent spread of COVID".
To say my gym manager was livid would be an understatement. They have been open 9 days.
He is hoping to negotiate another 2 before forced to close.
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Here is clip from when gate was unlocked and opened.
Technically, no one has a pass, so everyone just stood in front to take some pictures before going back in.
Watching civil disobedience in action, in China, is always interesting.
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A surprising honest tweet from Shaun this morning.
Which, per usual, was deleted shortly after I commented about its honestly.
The internal struggle is real.
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As if COVID zero couldn't be more ridiculous, my son's teacher is apparently still out of China.
So while all the kids are back, and will be on campus, he will be taught by TV and watched over by someone who will "ensure standards are kept high during this time"
Ugh.
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There is a rumor that in 2 hours a major announcement is going to be made about COVID controls on China.
I won’t lie… we all want this to be true.
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With last week's rumors of shift from COVID zero behind us, today's numbers show China is once again standing on ledge of COVID cliff.
Should numbers escalate, it's possible we have 5-10 cities with 10,000+ cases in a couple weeks.
And China's not ready for that...
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a difficult period of 6-9 months where COVID spreads across country, and the country "adjusts" through the same curve that every other country faced.
This process ripple through supply chain to retail/consumers abroad, but with any luck in 18 months we will ALL be THROUGH COVID
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Rumor has it an international school, my sons, has positive case, and kids will be home next (week).
I don’t know if true or not, but the impact on parents cannot be understated.
Next wave of exodus starts… now
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@DRechts
If there is one thing I have learned in life it’s that when two adults are having marital problems, the last thing they should do is punish the kids.
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For the majority of my 20+ years in China, the debate around climate change (and its costs) have largely been secondary to practical challenges (smog/ water quality)
This heat wave is changing that.
The costs are growing clearer by the day, and that is activating stakeholders
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While Shanghai residents are coming back out, it’s clear the elderly are not ready.
I’ve noticed this at my gym, but more visibly the parks and street corners that were once filled are totally empty.
慢慢来
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Roads are now blocked.
People may leave, but to enter you need to prove residence.
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Also, when I say tested, I really mean that.
China's leaders have had luxury to make decisions they have to date, but as "winter" approaches and numbers grow, it will be forced to support cities that are unable to afford (and therefore ignore) COVID zero process.
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In my 20+ years in China, this is the first student I have EVER seen making her way to and from school using a cane and the path.
Given the crowd of people, and trucks parked along her path, it’s easy to see why.
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For the last 15 years, Avocado lady has been one of the busiest shops on wulumuqi road.
Lately, business has been off.
WAY off.
In part as she has shifted to more deliveries, but bigger part is post-lockdown exodus.
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Shanghai is going to be a very quiet place this summer with all the families (Chinese and foreign) packing up for long summer holidays... overseas.
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Some random pics from Gulangyu island in Xiamen.
Really nice spot (on a quiet day) to get lost and eat street food
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Images & video of lockdowns returning to Shanghai went to a new level today.
At Disneyland this weekend with family.
Will worry about this later.
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Even as I wait for Shanghai lockdown to lift, I know big piece of this is that China is not ready to fight a country-level blowout.
Given low elderly vax rates, further 6-9 months of lockdowns only option.
Which risks economic crisis.
Are they ready for that?
Is the world?
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While many are celebrating border opening, the big win for me is knowing that international schools are fully open again tomorrow.
My son is ridiculously happy seeing his friends, but at same time said "I'll miss you guys tomorrow".
yeah. me too lil man. me too
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Following vigil earlier, a large crowd gathered on Wulumuqi Road in Shanghai.
Regular chants of "We don't want testing. We don't want QR", mixed in with a couple of songs.
Police met this with large numbers, obviously. There were a few tense moments, but largely let crowd go
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@macastel3
The most important question I’m asking myself is “how long will my son’s education be disrupted”.
Evenrthing else is second to that.
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Anyone hearing about Shanghai going through another lockdown tonight?
News on street is 6pm, and needs two tests to exit.
Anyone else?
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Another day, another rumor of China opening passes.
The speed by which each one “seems” more credible than they last, and is passed through wechat groups, is growing.
Everyone waiting for a signal.
It’s a dangerous pattern that only makes Beijing’s job harder.
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@LinZhang9
My experience is same as a white guy who has spent 20 years in China. No one really wants to know "China", and if you speak too highly of what is/ has happened here, then you are exposed as well. It's tough right now.
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Tons of messages/ conversations about the “end” of zero COVID.
Lot of people really thought it was over.
They just can’t accept the reality. Increasingly disappointed, confused, or frustrated.
It’s tiring.
Time to accept, focus on what you control, and move fwd productively
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@billbirtles
Some thank their creator first, some their parents, and others their country. Why the constant need to only focus on China’s athletes, with the basic negative undertone?
Can’t a more nuanced piece be written?
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Wife was just at a meeting where a bunch of teachers were talking about mess in SH schools.
Some saying they see schools being out until May.
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China is FINALLY reopening border to normal travel.
No more quarantines.
No more restrictions on flights.
Let’s goooooo!!!!
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Should Beijing step in, and pick up the tab on testing / QTing, then COVID zero will likely survive through CNY 23, and IMO, will pivot from there towards opening.
Should Beijing be unable/ unwilling to step in, next 2-3 months will see a forced shift to open.. followed by
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Rather than spend another day consumed by Shanghai lockdowns and zero COVID, I spent it at Disneyland.
Such an amazing experience.
Light show is incredible way to end the day!
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@drerictmiller
China is relapsing into old habits, and shockingly there are a lot of people who are onboard knowing full well what the consequences are.
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When did airport security go full tilt?
It used to be laptop out of bag, take belt off, and get cursory wanding
Now it’s take all electronics, incl cables, inspection of hair, and full wand (incl shoe bottom) & pat down.
Did something happen??
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Entire compound is now released to community.
Today was a good day.
#shanghai
#shanghailockdown
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Wheel down Pudong “international” airport.
Domestic terminal was PACKED full of planes, but international terminal slots half empty w/ most planes secured for morning.
Immigration: 10 people.
Customs: no line
Took 12 minutes from plane to car, with 10 of that walking.
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What do you do when you are told you are free, but after 3 months of shared lockdown you have become a close community of friends?
Dragon Boat race and movie night!!
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Amazing double rainbow in shanghai just now.
Follow to end of COVID zero???
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Building in compound was locked down an hour before new policy was released.
they shall still server out their 2+5
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@donweinland
There is no reward for Jiedao for the city to open, but there is a ton of risk should they open and cases reappear... This even extends to Mayor/ Party Secretary who are only graded on Zero COVID.
So, you are right to worry about the misalignment.
There is no end.
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If there is one consistent theme to conversations about COVID/ China, it is the loss of agency.
During lockdowns, it‘a the loss of physical agency, but even without a lockdown, the threat is enough to hold people back.
They stop buying.
They close companies.
They leave China.
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In a lot of coverage of recent events in Shanghai, the assumption is made that WeChat was overrun and therefore that everyone "knows".
This assumption is/ was a bad one.
Two interactions, w/ ppl who live < 1km from Anfu/ Wulu, I'd like to offer as "evidence"
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At a time when Apple and Tesla both reported disruptions, retailers were screaming, truck traffic fell off cliff, and airline/ train travel numbers cratered, the economy grew at 3%.
Ok. Sure. Why not.
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Regardless of when China exits from COVID Zero, it loses.
Supply chains, which have been looking to reduce exposure for a decade, are now investing into shift, and it's not just low end to Cambo & Vietnam...and it's permanent.
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In this edition of “could this be true??”, we have an “official” announcement making rounds in WeChat groups seemingly renaming/ downgrading COVID and ending the need for testing.
Could it be true?
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Shanghai is back up to 50+ cases. Mass testing today (and Saturday).
Reports of some compounds and offices closed.
Trajectory is not good.
I’m tired of canceling vacation plans.
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Busiest day at Pudong airport I’ve seen in some time.
Mainly from overflow of domestic flights being loaded in T2, but international flight board has 2x traffic I’ve seen as well.
But yeah.. still no one in immigration line, so door to lounge still under 10 min.
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@henrysgao
So your theory is that after a few years of keeping a tight lid on this, putting companies out of business, and straining international relations, they are going to let COVID lose in the winter?
OK. sure. why not.
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@macastel3
Think you need to better parse that data given the vast majority are not working for international schools.
And while many will not return, the top tier international schools will not struggle to fond teachers willing to move.
Brands are strong.
Salaries at global top.
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@china_laborlaw
This is different.
December was the largest departures of families from schools, ever, and this summer will be larger.
There are schools merging campuses, opening up to new populations, etc to survive.
Don’t understand the need to downplay this.
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@chrisedwards_au
Similar is happening in Shanghai. I sent staff home last week so they weren't locked into office, and stocked up on groceries before panic buying set in (last night).
If they aren't able to "bend the curve", there is only one way out of 0 COVID... through it.
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@mrowand
Those that can leave, will leave. It’s heartbreaking decision for many, but the loss of dignity and throw back to the food rations has rattled a lot of people.
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PVG UPDATE : 5 minutes from entering PVG to lounge… not a single person in line for check in, immigration, or security.
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@macastel3
If you can make it 1, you can make it 3.
If you can make it 3, you can make it 5.
If you been here for 5, you better have a plan before 10.
But no matter how long you been here, eventually you’ll be told “don’t care if you go home, but ya can’t stay here”.
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China has been very clear that anyone who dies "with" COVID doesn't count.
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I'm now convinced Zero COVID will mark China's 3rd major economic/ social pivot since I arrived '02.
Opportunities/ challenges will be VERY different, and will need to have long view for payoff, but cycle could be 20-25 years long.
It's a fascinating time to be here.
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@DavidSacks
China isn’t quiet, you just aren’t turned to their frequency. They have “solidified” relationship with Russia, but the first speech by Xi this week was around resource security.
Dashboard has been blinking red for long time, but now forced to act.
Watch that space.
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YES, it's true that many are frustrated by the impacts of zero COVID. job/ business loss, impact to kids, etc.
BUT I caution anyone from drawing wide conclusions abt how that frustration is/ will manifest, and what that "means" for China.
Cause.. you'll likely be proven wrong.
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